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2023 ECAC Post Season

Posted by Trotsky 
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Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: billhoward (---.nwrknj.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 13, 2023 02:17PM

In the metaverse they may be on sale.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: billhoward (---.nwrknj.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 13, 2023 02:41PM

Trotsky
If USCHO is to be believed, Friday 3/17 game times are:

4:00 Colgate vs Quinnipiac
7:30 Cornell vs Harvard

This is what the ECAC site says, note the precision of the state times ( [ecachockey.com] ):
The ECAC
EVENT
2023 ECAC Men's Hockey Championship

LOCATION (SEMIFINALS & FINALS)
1980 Rink - Herb Brooks Arena
2634 Main St.
Lake Placid, NY 12946
518-523-1655
info@orda.org

TICKETS
Tickets for championship weekend are on sale NOW. Fans can purchase tickets online HERE.

TICKET PRICES
All-Session = $70 + $5.23 (processing fees)
Daily = $50 + $4.04 (processing fees)
Student All-Session* = $40 + $2.46 (processing fees)
Student Daily* = $20 + $1.25 (processing fees)

Group tickets are available via box office.

*Students Tickets will be available on campuses for the participating schools for the championship and at a designated student window at the Olympic Center Box Office.

16354

GAME SCHEDULE
Semifinal 1: Friday, March 17 - 4:02 pm - No. 1 Quinnipiac vs. No. 5 Colgate
Semifinal 2: Friday, March 17 - 7:32 pm - No. 2 Harvard vs. No. 3 Cornell

Championship: Saturday, March 18 (7:30 pm)
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: March 13, 2023 06:54PM

not for nothing but I wonder if the team can even practice tomorrow with campus closed. Might not be anyone around to clean the ice surface or turn on the lights.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 13, 2023 09:39PM

upprdeck
not for nothing but I wonder if the team can even practice tomorrow with campus closed. Might not be anyone around to clean the ice surface or turn on the lights.
In case anybody else wondered, 9-18 inches, holy shit.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: March 13, 2023 09:40PM

yup.. snow and high winds.. gonna be a nasty day.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 13, 2023 09:42PM

Leave tonight, guys... drive
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: jfeath17 (104.28.39.---)
Date: March 15, 2023 02:21PM

FYI from Cornell ticket site:

“Cornell fans are encouraged to purchase tickets in Section 3 - which can be accessed by visiting the Lake Placid Olympic Center ticketing site, clicking the lock icon on the top of the screen and entering the access code ‘CORNELL23’”

You also save $10 using the code.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: HeafDog (---.dyn.optonline.net)
Date: March 16, 2023 05:32PM

jfeath17
FYI from Cornell ticket site:

“Cornell fans are encouraged to purchase tickets in Section 3 - which can be accessed by visiting the Lake Placid Olympic Center ticketing site, clicking the lock icon on the top of the screen and entering the access code ‘CORNELL23’”

You also save $10 using the code.

That code's not working for me. (shrug) Oh, well.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: andyw2100 (---.stny.res.rr.com)
Date: March 16, 2023 06:58PM

HeafDog
jfeath17
FYI from Cornell ticket site:

“Cornell fans are encouraged to purchase tickets in Section 3 - which can be accessed by visiting the Lake Placid Olympic Center ticketing site, clicking the lock icon on the top of the screen and entering the access code ‘CORNELL23’”

You also save $10 using the code.

That code's not working for me. (shrug) Oh, well.

When I had purchased tickets on Saturday night there was a field displaying to enter a code that is not the correct place to enter the code. As the post above indicates, there is a small icon near the top of the screen, that on my phone is a white lock on a black background. It is just to the left of the login option. When you click on that you'll bring up a field that accepts CORNELL23 as the code, and you should then have the option of purchasing $60 all session tickets in Section 3. I just tested it shortly before 7:00 PM on 3/16 and it works. Still lots of good seats available in Section 3. (Guessing the last four rows closer to Section 4 is blocked for the band.)

 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 16, 2023 09:48PM

Looks like weather will be fine after all.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: Dunc (107.77.70.---)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:44AM

If Colgate loses to Q or in the finals, we basically clinch a ncaa bid, right?
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/17/2023 11:45AM by Dunc.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: Dafatone (---.sub-174-235-209.myvzw.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:47AM

Dunc
If Colgate loses to Q or in the finals, we basically clinch a ncaa bid, right?

Yes. I'm not like 100% sure on that, but I'm 99% sure.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: djk26 (---.dyn.optonline.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 12:49PM

Seems to be a lack of excitement about this game today. I understand it's a tall order, but Harvard Sucks and Let's Go Red!banana
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: March 17, 2023 12:57PM

we played quin 6 periods and had 1 bad period
we played Harv 6 periods and had 1 bad period

The interesting thing is the Harv bad period we gave up 3 goals while actually out posessing them and out shooting them 14-8

Zero PP goals vs Harvard on 2 games on only 3 chances.. Need to do something there today
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: chimpfood (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 01:08PM

We’re on a playoff revenge tour of teams that beat us during the regular season. Clarkson down, Well get Harvard today and hopefully BU in the NCAAs
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 04:35PM

Colgate jumps out to a 1-0 lead
BU - PC scoreless after 1

 
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: jtwcornell91 (Moderator)
Date: March 17, 2023 04:40PM

Why is Mo Rocca doing the color commentary for the 'gate-Q semifinal on espn+?

 
___________________________
JTW

Enjoy the latest hockey geek tools at [www.elynah.com]
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: March 17, 2023 04:43PM

st cloud /denver/ quin/ bu

tonights favs we want to see win.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: jtwcornell91 (Moderator)
Date: March 17, 2023 04:53PM

upprdeck
st cloud /denver/ quin/ bu

tonights favs we want to see win.

I don't think I can hold my nose tightly enough to root for Quinnipiac.

 
___________________________
JTW

Enjoy the latest hockey geek tools at [www.elynah.com]
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: March 17, 2023 04:57PM

Didnt say it was gonna be easy or fun.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: Dafatone (---.sub-174-235-209.myvzw.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 05:02PM

jtwcornell91
upprdeck
st cloud /denver/ quin/ bu

tonights favs we want to see win.

I don't think I can hold my nose tightly enough to root for Quinnipiac.

It's a lighter nose-hold than tomorrow night will be if everything goes poorly today.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: March 17, 2023 05:10PM

Too bad the games werent in the order to make it easier on knowing who to root for..

But who trusts BU to win twice anyway
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 05:16PM

Misconduct on Brind'amour, 5 minute major for Colgate.

 
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 05:25PM

ugarte
Misconduct on Brind'amour, 5 minute major for Colgate.
major killed, brind'amour obvs still gone. Young, who got kneed and had to take a powder, back. Still 1-0 with 2 minutes left in the second.

 
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 05:31PM

Don't know how Q didn't score in the last two minutes. They still have about a minute of PP to start the third.

BU - PC still scoreless after 2.

 
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: March 17, 2023 06:20PM

Bu with a great effort tonight 12 shots on goal with 3 min left
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 06:20PM

QU-Gate goes to OT.
PC up 1-0 with time running out for BU.

 
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: Chris '03 (104.28.77.---)
Date: March 17, 2023 06:20PM

Overtime in Placid.

BU just tied PC with 2:32 left in regulation in Boston.

 
___________________________
"Mark Mazzoleni looks like a guy whose dog just died out there..."
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 06:30PM

CC scores first against Denver and is up 1-0 late in the second.

 
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: March 17, 2023 06:31PM

imagine if CC and NDak win with BU losing and people would be wishing they rooted for Quin this game.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: jkahn (---.hsd1.il.comcast.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 06:37PM

If Colgate wins today, the NCAA bid could very well come down to them having to lose the ECAC Final, whether it's against us or against Harvard.

 
___________________________
Jeff Kahn '70 '72
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 06:46PM

But the model said Cornell had a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs, how could this be happening??????
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: Dafatone (---.sub-174-235-209.myvzw.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 06:51PM

The announcer for this Colgate Q game just said that Q, Harvard, and Cornell are all in.

So we're doomed, right?
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 06:51PM

Can’t make this shit up: even the ECAC Hockey tournament announcers think Cornell is a lock to make the tournament. They just said so on the broadcast.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: March 17, 2023 06:51PM

seeding is also an issue.. if teams like ndak get in who knows where we end up of we make it.

Want to avoid Fargo i suspect vs denver/minn?
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 06:51PM

Q draws an OT penalty and has their worst PP of the year until getting a shot in the waning seconds. End this, Ticks!

 
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: jkahn (---.hsd1.il.comcast.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 07:04PM

BU wins

 
___________________________
Jeff Kahn '70 '72
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: March 17, 2023 07:12PM

at least now even if all the bad things happen tonight we still got 2 shots to get in.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: March 17, 2023 07:12PM

2ot.. so at best our game probably starts 8:15-8:30
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: marty (---.sub-174-197-205.myvzw.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 07:12PM

BearLover
But the model said Cornell had a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs, how could this be happening??????

110% you'd point that out.

Is this a sophisticated attempt at anti-woofing?
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: March 17, 2023 07:27PM

so down goes denver.. they had beaten CC 11 in a row.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: scoop85 (---.hvc.res.rr.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 07:28PM

I started the afternoon rooting for Colgate but have switched allegiances — go Deerticks!
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: scoop85 (---.hvc.res.rr.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 07:28PM

upprdeck
so down goes denver.. they had beaten CC 11 in a row.

Holy crap is CC on an improbable roll
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: March 17, 2023 07:29PM

5 outcomes left that help us.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 07:29PM

CC 1-0 over Denver

 
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 07:31PM

Another Q penalty in the second OT.

 
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 07:45PM

Peretz gives up a rebound for a tap-in and Colgate wins 2-1 in 2OT.

 
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: BMac (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 07:45PM

Colgate wins
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: Larry72 (---.twcny.rr.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 07:46PM

LGR

 
___________________________
Larry Baum '72
Ithaca, NY
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: scoop85 (---.hvc.res.rr.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 07:46PM

BMac
Colgate wins

Deservedly so. I thought they were the better team most of the game, and certainly in the 2nd OT
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: March 17, 2023 07:47PM

4 left..
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: dag14 (98.38.249.---)
Date: March 17, 2023 07:49PM

if anyone is posting from LP, can you please let the rest of us know when our game will start? Thanks
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 07:49PM

does Merrimack - Lowell matter? (other than "it depends on whether you know which one beats BU";)

 

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/17/2023 07:50PM by ugarte.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: jfeath17 (104.28.77.---)
Date: March 17, 2023 07:51PM

dag14
if anyone is posting from LP, can you please let the rest of us know when our game will start? Thanks

~8:37
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: March 17, 2023 07:53PM

this is why you root for Quin.

we had 6 things that could happen to get in after this game we are down to 3 and one requires St cloud to win twice.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: dag14 (98.38.249.---)
Date: March 17, 2023 07:56PM

jfeath17
dag14
if anyone is posting from LP, can you please let the rest of us know when our game will start? Thanks

~8:37

Thank you!
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: March 17, 2023 07:59PM

if we dont get in that means the

2-3-5-6-7 teams all lose this weekend.. that would have been a nice ML parlay.

and if Mich loses to Min its 2-3-4-5-6-7..
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: dbilmes (64.224.255.---)
Date: March 17, 2023 08:47PM

Kovich is playing and DeSantis isn't dressed. I'm assuming he was injured last weekend, or in practice during the week.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: scoop85 (---.hvc.res.rr.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 08:48PM

We look tight so far.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: ACM (---.rochester.res.rr.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 08:54PM

DeSantis is in the [url= ]lineup[/url] as the extra forward.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: Pghas (---.dyn.optonline.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 09:23PM

upprdeck
this is why you root for Quin.

we had 6 things that could happen to get in after this game we are down to 3 and one requires St cloud to win twice.

Yes but isn’t one of them Colgate losing even tomorrow night? If we win tonight but lose to Colgate are we out? Always so hard to know but that one weekend where we lost both a few weeks back could haunt us
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: Dafatone (---.sub-174-235-209.myvzw.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 09:24PM

Pghas
upprdeck
this is why you root for Quin.

we had 6 things that could happen to get in after this game we are down to 3 and one requires St cloud to win twice.

Yes but isn’t one of them Colgate losing even tomorrow night? If we win tonight but lose to Colgate are we out? Always so hard to know but that one weekend where we lost both a few weeks back could haunt us

Yeah, we'd be out, if BU also loses tomorrow and SCSU doesn't win tonight and tomorrow.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: Pghas (---.dyn.optonline.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 09:33PM

Dafatone
Pghas
upprdeck
this is why you root for Quin.

we had 6 things that could happen to get in after this game we are down to 3 and one requires St cloud to win twice.

Yes but isn’t one of them Colgate losing even tomorrow night? If we win tonight but lose to Colgate are we out? Always so hard to know but that one weekend where we lost both a few weeks back could haunt us

Yeah, we'd be out, if BU also loses tomorrow and SCSU doesn't win tonight and tomorrow.
Last question - should we lose tonight but colgate loses tomorrow are we in?
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: Dafatone (---.sub-174-235-209.myvzw.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 09:34PM

Pghas
Dafatone
Pghas
upprdeck
this is why you root for Quin.

we had 6 things that could happen to get in after this game we are down to 3 and one requires St cloud to win twice.

Yes but isn’t one of them Colgate losing even tomorrow night? If we win tonight but lose to Colgate are we out? Always so hard to know but that one weekend where we lost both a few weeks back could haunt us

Yeah, we'd be out, if BU also loses tomorrow and SCSU doesn't win tonight and tomorrow.
Last question - should we lose tonight but colgate loses tomorrow are we in?

Yup. I believe we are in unless Colgate wins, BU doesn't win, and SCSU doesn't win.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: arugula (---.sub-174-197-136.myvzw.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 10:39PM

How does a playoff overtime impact pwr? Half a win?
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: marty (---.sub-174-197-205.myvzw.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 10:42PM

Go Saint Cloud. Now tied 2-2.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: scoop85 (---.hvc.res.rr.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 10:49PM

We’re hanging in, but our possession metrics tonight is probably rather scary looking.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: BMac (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:01PM

Well, shit.

That’s as close as a game gets. They should be proud. Hopefully toothpaste loses and we’re not done this year.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: ajh258 (---.bstnma.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:01PM

FYI - we move down 1 spot on PWR with this OTL

Edit: I guess we already did from the QPac loss? We are at 13 on PWR after factoring in this game.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/17/2023 11:05PM by ajh258.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: scoop85 (---.hvc.res.rr.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:03PM

We did a nice job all night limiting their skill from taking over the game, but Harvard played a sound defensive game, and we missed the net too often on most of the few good chances we had. Shane was great tonight, but it was just not enough.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: Pghas (---.dyn.optonline.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:04PM

It just seems we so rarely have the elite skill guys who can make a great offensive play when we need it. Like, forever. I don’t know if he doesn’t recruit that way or those kids don’t come here because they think we’re the 1995 New Jersey Devils.

Still seems likely we make the tournament anyway and maybe make some noise there. And Lynah sure was a blast last weekend!
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:05PM

Wish Cornell could get the type of talent Harvard has. Schafer did the best he could with the players he has.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:07PM

So we need any one of:

St. Cloud scores in OT and beats CC
Harvard over Colgate - Hey Trotsky where ya at on this?
BU over whoever wins UML/Merrimack

Right?

 

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/17/2023 11:08PM by ugarte.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: ER (---.clppva.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:08PM

Is there no consolation game anymore?
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: scoop85 (---.hvc.res.rr.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:09PM

ER
Is there no consolation game anymore?

Nope, did away with that probably about 7-8 years ago
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:15PM

ugarte
So we need any one of:

St. Cloud scores in OT and beats CC
Harvard over Colgate - Hey Trotsky where ya at on this?
BU over whoever wins UML/Merrimack

Right?
Right. Harvard and BU will be the favorites, so we have a pretty good shot.

The 99.7% number from the CHN model was a complete joke. I’ll keep harping on it until people stop citing it. It was cited by the Cornell Daily Sun, the ELynah twitter account, the popular “Everything College Hockey” social media account, and the literal commentators of tonight’s game. Publishing this model is doing everyone a disservice. It isn’t calibrated to reality. It isn’t backwards-tested. No one made any attempt to check whether weighting by KRACH yields accurate predictions. But they publish the model anyway and people keep referring to it.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: chimpfood (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:19PM

This absolutely blows. 0-3 vs Harvard on the season and we might lose our tournament bid. Terrible.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: Scersk '97 (38.81.106.---)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:21PM

scoop85
We did a nice job all night limiting their skill from taking over the game, but Harvard played a sound defensive game, and we missed the net too often on most of the few good chances we had. Shane was great tonight, but it was just not enough.

For my money, this all goes back to losing to SLU and Clarkson late at home. Not being the “home” team is quite a disadvantage.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: Dafatone (---.sub-174-235-209.myvzw.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:22PM

BearLover
ugarte
So we need any one of:

St. Cloud scores in OT and beats CC
Harvard over Colgate - Hey Trotsky where ya at on this?
BU over whoever wins UML/Merrimack

Right?
Right. Harvard and BU will be the favorites, so we have a pretty good shot.

The 99.7% number from the CHN model was a complete joke. I’ll keep harping on it until people stop citing it. It was cited by the Cornell Daily Sun, the ELynah twitter account, the popular “Everything College Hockey” social media account, and the literal commentators of tonight’s game. Publishing this model is doing everyone a disservice. It isn’t calibrated to reality. It isn’t backwards-tested. No one made any attempt to check whether weighting by KRACH yields accurate predictions. But they publish the model anyway and people keep referring to it.

I have thoughts on the probabilities, but I'm gonna wait til after tomorrow to share them. Wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing and all.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: jkahn (---.hsd1.il.comcast.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:28PM

St. Cloud wins !!!!
Now being reviewed for offside ????

St. Cloud still wins !!!!

 
___________________________
Jeff Kahn '70 '72

Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 03/17/2023 11:31PM by jkahn.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:29PM

I said it before and I’ll say it again, there is a ridiculous talent disparity between Harvard and the rest of the league. Cornell had better hope that a large number of Harvard’s 15 draft picks leave for the pros, and that something happens in the coming years to close the talent gap. This isn’t tenable. Cornell has a solid team and played as well defensively as they reasonable could have, but even though Cornell did its best to contain Harvard’s offense, Harvard’s top two lines were creating changes far more dangerous than anything Cornell could put forth. It felt like a matter of time before Farrell, Coronato, Lafferierre, or any number of other uber-talented players potted the winning goal. If you put Michigan in the CCHA you’d have the same effect.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:31PM

jkahn
St. Cloud wins !!!!
wow you were way ahead of the radio stream i was listening to. let's go huskies.

we need any one of three favorites to win tomorrow and i ran some numbers and there's roughly a 99.7% chance it happens.

 
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:33PM

love that BU's opponent tomorrow is now in 2OT i hope it goes 6 and ends at 2am

 

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/17/2023 11:34PM by ugarte.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: Cornell95 (8.9.93.---)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:35PM

well, despite how much I want to think of the players and graduating seniors in particular getting a chance to play in the NCAA tournament
I think I am just too petty to cheer for Harvard to win, even though Colgate winning would reduce the number of at-large bids available
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: scoop85 (---.hvc.res.rr.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:37PM

ugarte
we need any one of three favorites to win tomorrow and i ran some numbers and there's roughly a 99.7% chance it happens.

:-P
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: jkahn (---.hsd1.il.comcast.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:37PM

ugarte
jkahn
St. Cloud wins !!!!
wow you were way ahead of the radio stream i was listening to. let's go huskies. .
Game was on the CBS Sports Network, and final will be on there tomorrow.

 
___________________________
Jeff Kahn '70 '72
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:38PM

ugarte
jkahn
St. Cloud wins !!!!
wow you were way ahead of the radio stream i was listening to. let's go huskies.

we need any one of three favorites to win tomorrow and i ran some numbers and there's roughly a 99.7% chance it happens.
So Cornell has three shots now, and we’re on the side of the favorite in all of them.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:42PM

BearLover
ugarte
jkahn
St. Cloud wins !!!!
wow you were way ahead of the radio stream i was listening to. let's go huskies.

we need any one of three favorites to win tomorrow and i ran some numbers and there's roughly a 99.7% chance it happens.
So Cornell has three shots now, and we’re on the side of the favorite in all of them.
that's what i said!

 
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:44PM

ugarte
BearLover
ugarte
jkahn
St. Cloud wins !!!!
wow you were way ahead of the radio stream i was listening to. let's go huskies.

we need any one of three favorites to win tomorrow and i ran some numbers and there's roughly a 99.7% chance it happens.
So Cornell has three shots now, and we’re on the side of the favorite in all of them.
that's what i said!
Oh sorry I missed that. Should be an approximately three-in-one-thousand chance we miss the NCAAs by my calculations.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: chimpfood (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:46PM

Even if Merrimack loses tomorrow would they even fall behind us after this?
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: marty (---.sub-174-197-205.myvzw.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:48PM

ugarte
jkahn
St. Cloud wins !!!!
wow you were way ahead of the radio stream i was listening to. let's go huskies.

we need any one of three favorites to win tomorrow and i ran some numbers and there's roughly a 99.7% chance it happens.

I like those odds. And 99.7% of eLynah agrees. (We also have 99.7% fewer cavities but I forget why.)
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: nshapiro (---.phlapa.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:49PM

Dafatone
BearLover
ugarte
So we need any one of:

St. Cloud scores in OT and beats CC
Harvard over Colgate - Hey Trotsky where ya at on this?
BU over whoever wins UML/Merrimack

Right?
Right. Harvard and BU will be the favorites, so we have a pretty good shot.

The 99.7% number from the CHN model was a complete joke. I’ll keep harping on it until people stop citing it. It was cited by the Cornell Daily Sun, the ELynah twitter account, the popular “Everything College Hockey” social media account, and the literal commentators of tonight’s game. Publishing this model is doing everyone a disservice. It isn’t calibrated to reality. It isn’t backwards-tested. No one made any attempt to check whether weighting by KRACH yields accurate predictions. But they publish the model anyway and people keep referring to it.

I have thoughts on the probabilities, but I'm gonna wait til after tomorrow to share them. Wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing and all.

I am not gonna wait. Even if all three games that matter were just toss-ups, the odds of all three going wrong would be .5*.5*.5 = .125 = 12.5%
If you give favorites a 60% chance to win, then the odds of three upsets would be .4 * .4 * .4 = .064 = 6.4%

So, even after all the bad results today, the odds that Cornell makes the tournament are still in the 93.6% to 87.5% range.

I know it might not feel right, but trust the math.

Throwing your hands up and saying that it must be wrong makes me think that you are the guy who loses the bet, not believing that in a room of 40 people, the odds are overwhelming that two have the same birthday. This also feels like it can't possibly be right, but it is.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:53PM

nshapiro
Dafatone
BearLover
ugarte
So we need any one of:

St. Cloud scores in OT and beats CC
Harvard over Colgate - Hey Trotsky where ya at on this?
BU over whoever wins UML/Merrimack

Right?
Right. Harvard and BU will be the favorites, so we have a pretty good shot.

The 99.7% number from the CHN model was a complete joke. I’ll keep harping on it until people stop citing it. It was cited by the Cornell Daily Sun, the ELynah twitter account, the popular “Everything College Hockey” social media account, and the literal commentators of tonight’s game. Publishing this model is doing everyone a disservice. It isn’t calibrated to reality. It isn’t backwards-tested. No one made any attempt to check whether weighting by KRACH yields accurate predictions. But they publish the model anyway and people keep referring to it.

I have thoughts on the probabilities, but I'm gonna wait til after tomorrow to share them. Wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing and all.

I am not gonna wait. Even if all three games that matter were just toss-ups, the odds of all three going wrong would be .5*.5*.5 = .125 = 12.5%
If you give favorites a 60% chance to win, then the odds of three upsets would be .4 * .4 * .4 = .064 = 6.4%

So, even after all the bad results today, the odds that Cornell makes the tournament are still in the 93.6% to 87.5% range.

I know it might not feel right, but trust the math.

Throwing your hands up and saying that it must be wrong makes me think that you are the guy who loses the bet, not believing that in a room of 40 people, the odds are overwhelming that two have the same birthday. This also feels like it can't possibly be right, but it is.
Huh? I agree with your odds (for the most part—I think weighting for the favorites is closer than 60/40). I don’t agree with the 99.7% number ever being correct, though. The 99.7% number wasn’t based on 60/40 weighting for favorites. Rather, it was based on completely absurd weighting based on KRACH, which gave Q something like a 90% chance of beating Colgate.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: Dafatone (---.sub-174-228-35.myvzw.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:53PM

nshapiro
Dafatone
BearLover
ugarte
So we need any one of:

St. Cloud scores in OT and beats CC
Harvard over Colgate - Hey Trotsky where ya at on this?
BU over whoever wins UML/Merrimack

Right?
Right. Harvard and BU will be the favorites, so we have a pretty good shot.

The 99.7% number from the CHN model was a complete joke. I’ll keep harping on it until people stop citing it. It was cited by the Cornell Daily Sun, the ELynah twitter account, the popular “Everything College Hockey” social media account, and the literal commentators of tonight’s game. Publishing this model is doing everyone a disservice. It isn’t calibrated to reality. It isn’t backwards-tested. No one made any attempt to check whether weighting by KRACH yields accurate predictions. But they publish the model anyway and people keep referring to it.

I have thoughts on the probabilities, but I'm gonna wait til after tomorrow to share them. Wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing and all.

I am not gonna wait. Even if all three games that matter were just toss-ups, the odds of all three going wrong would be .5*.5*.5 = .125 = 12.5%
If you give favorites a 60% chance to win, then the odds of three upsets would be .4 * .4 * .4 = .064 = 6.4%

So, even after all the bad results today, the odds that Cornell makes the tournament are still in the 93.6% to 87.5% range.

I know it might not feel right, but trust the math.

Throwing your hands up and saying that it must be wrong makes me think that you are the guy who loses the bet, not believing that in a room of 40 people, the odds are overwhelming that two have the same birthday. This also feels like it can't possibly be right, but it is.

My thoughts roughly echo yours. Was even gonna say some numbers if every game were a coin flip.

But again, the whatever and the thing.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: CU2007 (---.stny.res.rr.com)
Date: March 17, 2023 11:54PM

There are 3 finals that matter tomorrow - CCHA, ECAC and NCHC, unless the 3 underdogs win all three, we are in NCAA
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: andyw2100 (---.sub-174-231-54.myvzw.com)
Date: March 18, 2023 12:12AM

CU2007
There are 3 finals that matter tomorrow - CCHA, ECAC and NCHC, unless the 3 underdogs win all three, we are in NCAA

When was the last time the ECAC had four teams in the tourney?
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 18, 2023 12:13AM

BearLover
nshapiro
Dafatone
BearLover
ugarte
So we need any one of:

St. Cloud scores in OT and beats CC
Harvard over Colgate - Hey Trotsky where ya at on this?
BU over whoever wins UML/Merrimack

Right?
Right. Harvard and BU will be the favorites, so we have a pretty good shot.

The 99.7% number from the CHN model was a complete joke. I’ll keep harping on it until people stop citing it. It was cited by the Cornell Daily Sun, the ELynah twitter account, the popular “Everything College Hockey” social media account, and the literal commentators of tonight’s game. Publishing this model is doing everyone a disservice. It isn’t calibrated to reality. It isn’t backwards-tested. No one made any attempt to check whether weighting by KRACH yields accurate predictions. But they publish the model anyway and people keep referring to it.

I have thoughts on the probabilities, but I'm gonna wait til after tomorrow to share them. Wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing and all.

I am not gonna wait. Even if all three games that matter were just toss-ups, the odds of all three going wrong would be .5*.5*.5 = .125 = 12.5%
If you give favorites a 60% chance to win, then the odds of three upsets would be .4 * .4 * .4 = .064 = 6.4%

So, even after all the bad results today, the odds that Cornell makes the tournament are still in the 93.6% to 87.5% range.

I know it might not feel right, but trust the math.

Throwing your hands up and saying that it must be wrong makes me think that you are the guy who loses the bet, not believing that in a room of 40 people, the odds are overwhelming that two have the same birthday. This also feels like it can't possibly be right, but it is.
Huh? I agree with your odds (for the most part—I think weighting for the favorites is closer than 60/40). I don’t agree with the 99.7% number ever being correct, though. The 99.7% number wasn’t based on 60/40 weighting for favorites. Rather, it was based on completely absurd weighting based on KRACH, which gave Q something like a 90% chance of beating Colgate.
To add to this, here are the probabilities based on “weighting by KRACH”:
SCSU has a 75% chance of beating CC
BU has a 59% chance of beating Merrimack
Harvard has a 75% chance of beating Colgate

The chances of all three of those things failing is 2.6%, quite a bit lower than the 6.4% or 12.5% from
nshapiro’s numbers.

Again, we see here that, when “weighting by KRACH,” the further apart two teams’ KRACH scores, the more extreme(ly wrong) the probabilities are. As I have previously mentioned, according to this method, Minnesota would beat Dartmouth 97% of the time.

Here’s the thing, though—this discussion shouldn’t even be happening, because the burden on proof isn’t on random laypeople to disprove the methodology. Rather, the burden of proof is on the people publishing these models to show how and why weighting by KRACH yields predictive outcomes. To my knowledge, no one has put forth any argument why these models should be trusted. People just pick whatever random inputs they want, publish a model, and then everyone else eats it right up.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: nshapiro (---.phlapa.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 18, 2023 12:14AM

Maybe I am getting too tired, but YATC is now showing Merrimack ahead of us even if they lose, so we might need one of two favorites to win, Hahvahd or St. Cloud, not one of three.
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 18, 2023 12:23AM

nshapiro
Maybe I am getting too tired, but YATC is now showing Merrimack ahead of us even if they lose, so we might need one of two favorites to win, Hahvahd or St. Cloud, not one of three.
I’m getting Cornell ahead of them when I do it
 
Re: 2023 ECAC Post Season
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 18, 2023 12:25AM

BearLover
nshapiro
Maybe I am getting too tired, but YATC is now showing Merrimack ahead of us even if they lose, so we might need one of two favorites to win, Hahvahd or St. Cloud, not one of three.
I’m getting Cornell ahead of them when I do it
me too. every possible combination of underdogs except BU and we're still in on USCHO's doohickey.

 
 
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