2022-23 Predictions

I predict the ECAC top 4 as follows:

1. Harvard—this year’s roster may be the most talented team in ECAC history, in terms of future NHL talent at least. They are slated to have 15 draft picks, easily the most in program history and per my quick look-over the most of any team in the NCAAs (and yes, that includes Michigan, BU, BC, Minnesota, etc.). Outside of Nick Abruzzese, all of the major contributors are returning. The highlight is sophomore F and first-rounder Matthew Coronato, but they are supremely talented up and down the lineup. Harvard is the favorite to win the ECAC and has a good shot at making the Frozen Four.

2. Quinnipiac—many returning seniors and fifth-year players, including D Zach Metsa (10-27-37 in 42 games last year). G Yaniv Perets put up incredible numbers (.939 sv%, 1.17 GAA, 11 SO) in his first full season. Q may start the year ahead of Harvard before Harvard’s young talent comes together as a team. Third-round pick Ty Smilanic transferred out, but they’re still older and deeper than Cornell and Clarkson. Q should have a good shot at the NCAAs.

3. Cornell—Clarkson and Cornell are bubble NCAA teams on paper, and both are a big step ahead of the rest of the ECAC, so a first-round bye is the expectation. Both look a tier below Harvard/Q, though. Cornell will have a balanced team next year at every position, with some star power at the top in Andreev, Stienburg, and Malinski. Between Shane and Keopple it’s likely they have a serviceable goaltender, and it’s possible they even have a very good one. Transfer Seger and the incoming freshmen (all older with multiple years of junior experience) should adjust to the college game fast than the average newcomer. Losing Ertel is a big loss, but a lot of that loss will manifest itself over the long-term trajectory of the program (losing him for the next three years) rather than in the immediate term (losing him for the upcoming season).

4. Clarkson—better than Cornell for most of last year, but they’ve lost more to graduation than Cornell has. They’ll continue to play the same heavy, defense-oriented style as Cornell, but their top line and PP unit looked more lethal than Cornell’s when I watched them last year (mostly when they played Cornell). They make cross-ice passes in the offensive zone better than Cornell does. As such, they may be more top-heavy than Cornell. I think it’s a coin flip between Cornell and Clarkson for who finishes 3rd/4th.

No real thoughts on the rest of the ECAC. Colgate upset Cornell to make Lake Placid last year, but that was more a fluke than anything, and on paper their roster is getting worse, not better. It will be a struggle for any one of these eight teams to earn a bye (though, statistically speaking, the combined likelihood of each of these teams getting a bye makes it more likely than not that one of them pulls it off).

Cornell is going to lose a lot of really good players to graduation in 2023, so this is a big year.

BearLover
They are slated to have 15 draft picks, easily the most in program history and per my quick look-over the most of any team in the NCAAs (and yes, that includes Michigan, BU, BC, Minnesota, etc.).

15? Wow. They'll be fun to watch, especially in the second half of the season, regardless of arch-rival status blah blah

abmarks

BearLover
They are slated to have 15 draft picks, easily the most in program history and per my quick look-over the most of any team in the NCAAs (and yes, that includes Michigan, BU, BC, Minnesota, etc.).

15? Wow. They'll be fun to watch, especially in the second half of the season, regardless of arch-rival status blah blah

CHN has them at 16 picks, not 15, unless there's something I'm missing. This is based on CHNs Sucks 22-23 roster listing

abmarks

abmarks

BearLover
They are slated to have 15 draft picks, easily the most in program history and per my quick look-over the most of any team in the NCAAs (and yes, that includes Michigan, BU, BC, Minnesota, etc.).

15? Wow. They'll be fun to watch, especially in the second half of the season, regardless of arch-rival status blah blah

CHN has them at 16 picks, not 15, unless there's something I'm missing. This is based on CHNs Sucks 22-23 roster listing

John Fusco apparently has transferred to Dartmouth

#LeafsForever prospect John Fusco is transferring to Dartmouth. He remains in the ECAC but should have much more opportunity for ice-time with the Big Green

He’s a DY+3 who has 46 games of experience at the USHL level or higher. Needs games and that wasn’t guaranteed at Harvard [t.co]

— Kyle Cushman (@Kyle_Cush) May 31, 2022

abmarks

abmarks

BearLover
They are slated to have 15 draft picks, easily the most in program history and per my quick look-over the most of any team in the NCAAs (and yes, that includes Michigan, BU, BC, Minnesota, etc.).

15? Wow. They'll be fun to watch, especially in the second half of the season, regardless of arch-rival status blah blah

CHN has them at 16 picks, not 15, unless there's something I'm missing. This is based on CHNs Sucks 22-23 roster listing

Abruzzese signed with the Maple Leafs, but the CHN list omits defenseman Ian Moore, who was a 3rd round draft choice last year of Anaheim (and is the son of my fraternity brother at Cornell )

I take it suggesting any connection between coaching and winning is out-of-bounds? I have watched several coaches win numerous games for their teams - Harkness not the least of which.

osorojo
I take it suggesting any connection between coaching and winning is out-of-bounds? I have watched several coaches win numerous games for their teams - Harkness not the least of which.

But THIS doesn't happen in a typical hockey game. Was Woody out-of-bounds?

marty

osorojo
I take it suggesting any connection between coaching and winning is out-of-bounds? I have watched several coaches win numerous games for their teams - Harkness not the least of which.

But THIS doesn't happen in a typical hockey game. Was Woody out-of-bounds?

This version is more informative and much more entertaining.

Swampy

marty

osorojo
I take it suggesting any connection between coaching and winning is out-of-bounds? I have watched several coaches win numerous games for their teams - Harkness not the least of which.

But THIS doesn't happen in a typical hockey game. Was Woody out-of-bounds?

This version is more informative and much more entertaining.

I watched that game live, and to this day I can't fathom what was going through Woody's mind. It was a second-tier bowl game with nothing really on the line.

scoop85
I watched that game live, and to this day I can't fathom what was going through Woody's mind.

I'll go with "authoritarian loses his shit." It's pretty obvious.

I love this hockey argot.

This firing of an out of control Woody Hayes was the beginning of the end for the idea that nothing a great coach did could cost him his job. Except that ...

two decades later Penn State's president wanted Joe Paterno to retire (early 2000s), Paterno rudely told president Graham Spanier no way, Paterno kept his job for nearly another decade, the sex abuse scandal built, and in 2011 both Spanier and Paterno were sacked.

TBRW Predictions.

The transfer portal likely means I have miscalculated returning points, and I'll have to revise a few times as I find errors, but... that's my story so far.

Trotsky
TBRW Predictions.

The transfer portal likely means I have miscalculated returning points, and I'll have to revise a few times as I find errors, but... that's my story so far.

This is very entertaining. But may I suggest you present the errors with "+" or "-" (ERROR = PREDICTED - ACTUAL)?

For example, in 2022 you predicted 2, but the actual was 4, so the error was -2. But in 2020 you predicted 2, but the actual was 1, so the error was +1.

This would make the error column more easily interpreted.

So you want me to sign the errors? Yes, I can do that.

Still feeling pretty good about my prediction of
Harvard/Quinnipiac
—big gap—
Cornell/Clarkson
—big gap—
everyone else

Not that this was a particularly difficult prediction to make. Harvard (insane talent) and Q (bunch of 24-year-olds) have things no one else in the league can match.

Cornell has dug themselves a hole. In particular, starting the season at Minn-Duluth is killing them. The Red really need to win a high percentage of their remaining games to compete for an at-large bid. It’s possible—Cornell has been playing pretty well lately—but I think it’s unlikely at this point.

There is no strategic or intelligent discussion in the above paragraph. But with a break in the season, I thought it would be worth taking stock of where things are.

Notably, Cornell is approximately where they were in the PWR at this time last year. I think this year’s team is better, though last year’s team did not end up coming close to an at-large bid.

BearLover
Cornell has dug themselves a hole. In particular, starting the season at Minn-Duluth is killing them. The Red really need to win a high percentage of their remaining games to compete for an at-large bid. It’s possible—Cornell has been playing pretty well lately—but I think it’s unlikely at this point.

There is no strategic or intelligent discussion in the above paragraph. But with a break in the season, I thought it would be worth taking stock of where things are.

Notably, Cornell is approximately where they were in the PWR at this time last year. I think this year’s team is better, though last year’s team did not end up coming close to an at-large bid.

I think it's a little circular. We finished nowhere near a bid last year, but had we swept Colgate and won a game in Lake Placid, I bet we would've been close.

No, I'm not going to try to crunch any numbers on that.

This year, if we get a top-4 finish and get to Lake Placid, I bet we wind up close to an at-large.

imo we have a young team that had a rocky start to the year (partially because UMD was too early in our prep but tbh UMD's subsequent performance is killing us as much as the games against them is). i don't know if we can come back from that start well enough to survive in the postseason without winning the conference title. that said, it's definitely a squad that shows promise for the next couple of years; the upperclassmen have been the problem, not the kids imo.

ugarte
imo we have a young team that had a rocky start to the year (partially because UMD was too early in our prep but tbh UMD's subsequent performance is killing us as much as the games against them is). i don't know if we can come back from that start well enough to survive in the postseason without winning the conference title. that said, it's definitely a squad that shows promise for the next couple of years; the upperclassmen have been the problem, not the kids imo.

Also, Quinnipiac’s fifth-year seniors will finally be forced to do something else with their lives next year.

Dafatone

BearLover
Cornell has dug themselves a hole. In particular, starting the season at Minn-Duluth is killing them. The Red really need to win a high percentage of their remaining games to compete for an at-large bid. It’s possible—Cornell has been playing pretty well lately—but I think it’s unlikely at this point.

There is no strategic or intelligent discussion in the above paragraph. But with a break in the season, I thought it would be worth taking stock of where things are.

Notably, Cornell is approximately where they were in the PWR at this time last year. I think this year’s team is better, though last year’s team did not end up coming close to an at-large bid.

I think it's a little circular. We finished nowhere near a bid last year, but had we swept Colgate and won a game in Lake Placid, I bet we would've been close.

No, I'm not going to try to crunch any numbers on that.

This year, if we get a top-4 finish and get to Lake Placid, I bet we wind up close to an at-large.

Maybe. Beating BU and AIC would go a long way. It’s tough that the bad teams in the ECAC now seem to be the bad teams nationally. I don’t have any data but I think the bad ECAC teams used to be way better than the Canisius and Mercyhurts of the world - doesn’t seem to be the case anymore.

if you win those first 2 instead of losing we are just about top 5 in PWR right now.

even winning 1 game puts us in the top 15

or winning the harvard game which was there to be had. put us in top 15

I mean we are right around 20 whose to say the 4-5 teams above us dont play worse either.

RIT is gonna get dragged down the by the league as well.
omaha is 8-6 maybe they dont stay over .500
WMU is 10-8 ditto
Mass Lowell 9-6-1
Mass 7-5-3

if we win the games against the bottom teams we could jump up without even beating the b-u/quin/harv teams

Taken in a vacuum IF BU was the only game played tomorrow and we won we would jump up to 15,

I mean starting the season who had us at #1 right now in GA/G at 1.8?

Harvard has 15 or 16 hockey players who currently have contracts with NHL teams. How many current C.U. hockey players have contracts with NHL teams, and who are these professional prospects?

osorojo
Harvard has 15 or 16 hockey players who currently have contracts with NHL teams. How many current C.U. hockey players have contracts with NHL teams, and who are these professional prospects?

Contracts? Do draft picks have contracts while they're still in college?

I always thought contracts involve some compensation, and I haven't been following the rules on NIL. So, maybe they do have contracts. Please enlighten.

Swampy

osorojo
Harvard has 15 or 16 hockey players who currently have contracts with NHL teams. How many current C.U. hockey players have contracts with NHL teams, and who are these professional prospects?

Contracts? Do draft picks have contracts while they're still in college?

I always thought contracts involve some compensation, and I haven't been following the rules on NIL. So, maybe they do have contracts. Please enlighten.

They do not have contracts. Many never will.

i think he means former harvard players in NHL team systems. i'm not going to check but at least give his ramblings a not-completely-stupid interpretation if you are going to engage with them.

ugarte
i think he means former harvard players in NHL team systems. i'm not going to check but at least give his ramblings a not-completely-stupid interpretation if you are going to engage with them.

It would be interesting to compare the percent of Harvard draft picks that end up with lasting ahl/nhl contracts compared to us and the rest of the league (This could maybe point to how good programs are at prepping players for higher level of play)

Of course we'd have to define what "lasting" contract means

Dunc
It would be interesting to compare the percent of Harvard draft picks that end up with lasting ahl/nhl contracts compared to us and the rest of the league (This could maybe point to how good programs are at prepping players for higher level of play)

Of course we'd have to define what "lasting" contract means

That would be interesting. I would look at two things: (1) the net NHL GP of each school's alumni going back over various intervals and (2) that against some predictive measure of how like draft picks are expected to produce.

It's probably just selective perception but I would swear that Boston area teams' players are hyped more and pushed into higher draft slots than their subsequent NHL production justifies, and of these Harvard is the chief beneficiary/offender.

upprdeck
I mean starting the season who had us at #1 right now in GA/G at 1.8?

I thought somebody was under 1.0? Maybe that was just a single goalie.

CU2007
It’s tough that the bad teams in the ECAC now seem to be the bad teams nationally. I don’t have any data but I think the bad ECAC teams used to be way better than the Canisius and Mercyhurts of the world - doesn’t seem to be the case anymore.

It has frequently been the case that our terrible teams can lose to anybody.

I'd check TBRW but I just noticed it's down. Maybe I should have paid that server bill after all.

ugarte
imo we have a young team that had a rocky start to the year (partially because UMD was too early in our prep but tbh UMD's subsequent performance is killing us as much as the games against them is). i don't know if we can come back from that start well enough to survive in the postseason without winning the conference title. that said, it's definitely a squad that shows promise for the next couple of years; the upperclassmen have been the problem, not the kids imo.

I'm an optimist but I think the upper classmen are still playing well. Stienburg, Andreev, Berard are the ones people are worried about not producing, and I think they are all playing good Cornell hockey, getting to pucks, setting things up, getting a ton of good shots off. The points will come.

We are where I thought we would be -- UMD series was trouble; we all knew that. The ECAC has no surprises this year except Colgate is doing better and Clarkson worse than expected. Those 4 games will decide whether we finish 3, 4 or 5. Finishing 3rd would be playing a QF opponent we ought to beat. Otherwise it will be a crapshoot to get back to Placid.

IMO any Ivy not absolutely devastated after missing an entire season should count their blessings.

Trotsky

Dunc
It would be interesting to compare the percent of Harvard draft picks that end up with lasting ahl/nhl contracts compared to us and the rest of the league (This could maybe point to how good programs are at prepping players for higher level of play)

Of course we'd have to define what "lasting" contract means

That would be interesting. I would look at two things: (1) the net NHL GP of each school's alumni going back over various intervals and (2) that against some predictive measure of how like draft picks are expected to produce.

It's probably just selective perception but I would swear that Boston area teams' players are hyped more and pushed into higher draft slots than their subsequent NHL production justifies, and of these Harvard is the chief beneficiary/offender.

Yeah that seems like a good proposal - I’ll look into working out the numbers once my finals are over haha

And yeah I have the same perception about prospects from Boston (being a Bruins fan it’s even more skewed for our team cuz our management *really* likes to select players either from Boston or those committed to a college in Boston)

Cornell up to 18 in Pairwise after a stellar weekend

adamw
Cornell up to 18 in Pairwise after a stellar weekend

We were up to 17 before Notre Dame won.

adamw
Cornell up to 18 in Pairwise after a stellar weekend

Someone wise once said that sometimes the best course of action is to do nothing.

arugula
Someone wise once said that sometimes the best course of action is to do nothing.

You mean like playing a pair in front of 750 fans against American International?