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Opponents and Others, 2022-23

Posted by dbilmes 
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Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: March 12, 2023 09:22AM

Minn St- Nmich is a wash now.. 1 gets in either way But NMich winning helps us seeing wise if we get in.

WMich losing is bad if st cloud loses today as well because then it's a 1 game deal for a bid steal. St cloud winning today would mean someone has to upset 2 top 10 teams. And In CCs case they would have had to beat 3 of them and if they do that, I guess the deserve it.

HE is coming down to 1 shot to steal.

ECAC Colgate has beaten all 3 teams left so they have to feel like they can do it again.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: scoop85 (---.hvc.res.rr.com)
Date: March 12, 2023 10:30AM

BearLover
Dafatone
CU2007
I assume after this weekend’s games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.
MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN’s probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 12, 2023 10:32AM

scoop85
BearLover
Dafatone
CU2007
I assume after this weekend’s games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.
MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN’s probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Not sure if trolling.

Don’t look at the matrix.

It severely overestimates the likelihood of higher seeds winning (i.e., auto-bids outside the top 16). Our chances are high, but not that high.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: scoop85 (---.hvc.res.rr.com)
Date: March 12, 2023 10:35AM

BearLover
scoop85
BearLover
Dafatone
CU2007
I assume after this weekend’s games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.
MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN’s probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Not sure if trolling.

Don’t look at the matrix.

It severely overestimates the likelihood of higher seeds winning (i.e., auto-bids outside the top 16). Our chances are high, but not that high.

No, not trolling. I’m not a stats guy but 20,000 Monte Carlo simualtions, I presume, accounts for all types of outcomes. But it does seem anecdotally to be too high.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 12, 2023 10:42AM

scoop85
BearLover
scoop85
BearLover
Dafatone
CU2007
I assume after this weekend’s games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.
MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN’s probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Not sure if trolling.

Don’t look at the matrix.

It severely overestimates the likelihood of higher seeds winning (i.e., auto-bids outside the top 16). Our chances are high, but not that high.

No, not trolling. I’m not a stats guy but 20,000 Monte Carlo simualtions, I presume, accounts for all types of outcomes. But it does seem anecdotally to be too high.
Sorry, didn’t mean to accuse you of trolling. This has been discussed in some other threads in the last week or so. The issue is that the model relies on KRACH rankings to predict the likelihood of different outcomes. So the 20,000 simulations are based on flawed probabilities.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: scoop85 (---.hvc.res.rr.com)
Date: March 12, 2023 10:47AM

BearLover
scoop85
BearLover
scoop85
BearLover
Dafatone
CU2007
I assume after this weekend’s games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.
MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN’s probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Not sure if trolling.

Don’t look at the matrix.

It severely overestimates the likelihood of higher seeds winning (i.e., auto-bids outside the top 16). Our chances are high, but not that high.

No, not trolling. I’m not a stats guy but 20,000 Monte Carlo simualtions, I presume, accounts for all types of outcomes. But it does seem anecdotally to be too high.
Sorry, didn’t mean to accuse you of trolling. This has been discussed in some other threads in the last week or so. The issue is that the model relies on KRACH rankings to predict the likelihood of different outcomes. So the 20,000 simulations are based on flawed probabilities.

Sure, the data coming out is only as good as the data going in.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 12, 2023 11:40AM

The statement that the probabilities are too high has not been demonstrated empirically. They may be, they may not, but "feeling" they are too high is not a mathematical argument.

Easy enough to run the numbers. If people want to put some reality behind their gut feelings, they should.
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 03/12/2023 11:41AM by Trotsky.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: adamw (---.hsd1.co.comcast.net)
Date: March 12, 2023 12:12PM

The better way to look at 99.7% is that there are very few scenarios where Cornell doesn't get it. You are then free to argue about Cornell's true "probability" academically.

The alternative is to play out every permutation and combination of results, as opposed to 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations. In that case, however, you'd probably see wrongly worse "odds" because so many of those scenarios are unlikely.

But again, saying the Probability Matrix is useless and flawed, really misses the point. Lather, rinse, repeat.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: adamw (---.hsd1.co.comcast.net)
Date: March 12, 2023 12:14PM

It should be noted that - indeed the Probability Matrix is bad at things like this ... St. Cloud State has been mediocre (at best) lately, because it lost 3 defensemen, including its best one. So they are limping into the NCAAs, and could easily lose today, and/or next week -- which gives a below-15 NCHC team much better odds of winning that tournament than the Matrix is presenting.

My hope for the future of it is to weight recent results more heavily, on a sliding scale. But that requires math knowledge that I don't have - because I don't want to just do it arbitrarily.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: KGR11 (---.customer.veroxity.net)
Date: March 12, 2023 01:18PM

Trotsky
The statement that the probabilities are too high has not been demonstrated empirically. They may be, they may not, but "feeling" they are too high is not a mathematical argument.

Easy enough to run the numbers. If people want to put some reality behind their gut feelings, they should.

Actually, jfeath17 demonstrated that KRACH-based win percentages over 65% were too high empirically five years ago. He looked at results for 1,129 games in 2016 and 2017. here.

IMO, applying this kind of "translation" of KRACH-based win percentages to empirically-based ones is probably the best way to improve the Pairwise Probability Matrix. The frustrating thing is that potential outcomes have changed since jfeath17 did this analysis (OT wins count different than regulation wins).
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Jeff Hopkins '82 (---.229.45.21.res-cmts.sm.ptd.net)
Date: March 12, 2023 05:05PM

Dafatone
BearLover
Dafatone
CU2007
I assume after this weekend’s games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.
MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

I don't think Merrimack would pass us in that scenario. But I'm not certain. If they would, then it's possible that UMass Lowell could beat BU, then beat Merrimack in the finals and maybe Hockey East gets three bids. But I don't think so.

Otherwise, yeah, you summed it up well.
Otherwise yeah, I think that's right.

Lowell is playing Merrimack in the semis. It would have to be Providence beating BU in the semis then Merrimack in the finals. But I don't think Merrimack will get in that scenario. Time for YATC.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 12, 2023 09:45PM

SCSU beat Duluth, so the NCHC now only has two teams outside the top 16 out of the four remaining semifinalists. On the other hand, one of those teams is NoDak, who beat Omaha tonight to move on. With NoDak’s level of talent, seems quite possible for them to steal an at-large bid. None of this really matters too much as long as Colgate doesn’t win the ECAC.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: March 12, 2023 09:54PM

NDaK has to beat St cloud and then probably Denver unless they barf it up..
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 12, 2023 10:01PM

upprdeck
NDaK has to beat St cloud and then probably Denver unless they barf it up..
They’d be an underdog to Denver, but I’d guess the matchup vs. St. Cloud is about a coin-flip.

By the way, You Are the Committee is up on CHN. I haven’t found a way for Merrimack to pass Cornell without Merrimack winning the Hockey East tournament. I.e., from Cornell’s perspective, the only thing we care about in Hockey East is whether BU wins or not. Hockey East cannot get 2 teams ahead of Cornell without a non-BU team winning the tourney. (Though, if Merrimack wins the semis and then loses to BU in the finals, i they get very close to us, so maybe someone else can figure out a way for them to pass us.)

Assuming Merrimack can’t pass us without winning HE, that makes things simple. We are in if one of the following four events occurs:
1. We beat Harvard
2. BU wins HE
3. Denver or SCSU wins NCHC
4. Colgate does not win ECAC
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: March 12, 2023 10:13PM

Yea we need just like 1 good thing to happen.

You can see a path to #7-9 seed as well

Whether thats a good thing or not hard to tell. It would mean No harvard in the our Bracket I would think
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Jeff Hopkins '82 (---.229.45.21.res-cmts.sm.ptd.net)
Date: March 12, 2023 10:24PM

upprdeck
Yea we need just like 1 good thing to happen.

You can see a path to #7-9 seed as well

Whether thats a good thing or not hard to tell. It would mean No Harvard in the our Bracket I would think

I don't want 8 or 9. That means Fargo.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 13, 2023 05:43AM

I've never been to North Dakota. How bad can it be? I've been to Potsdam.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Dafatone (---.sub-174-235-209.myvzw.com)
Date: March 13, 2023 07:36AM

Trotsky
I've never been to North Dakota. How bad can it be? I've been to Potsdam.

I really liked Fargo for the two nights I was there. Couple fun bars, surprisingly good sushi.

The drive there was pretty desolate, and that's coming from someone who lives in a pretty desolate place.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 13, 2023 10:49AM

Trotsky
I've never been to North Dakota. How bad can it be? I've been to Potsdam.
Never been to Fargo but had a nice steak dinner in Minot while otherwise not stopping in the state at all.

 
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 13, 2023 10:51AM

Dafatone
Trotsky
I've never been to North Dakota. How bad can it be? I've been to Potsdam.

I really liked Fargo for the two nights I was there. Couple fun bars, surprisingly good sushi.

The drive there was pretty desolate, and that's coming from someone who lives in a pretty desolate place.
How did you end up there?
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Dafatone (---.sub-174-235-209.myvzw.com)
Date: March 13, 2023 11:01AM

BearLover
Dafatone
Trotsky
I've never been to North Dakota. How bad can it be? I've been to Potsdam.

I really liked Fargo for the two nights I was there. Couple fun bars, surprisingly good sushi.

The drive there was pretty desolate, and that's coming from someone who lives in a pretty desolate place.
How did you end up there?

Moved to South Dakota for graduate school, went to Fargo for a regional conference in my (then) field.

I'm still here. There are some major issues, but as someone who grew up in east coast suburban sprawl, I like the openness.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Trotsky (---.net.cia.gov)
Date: March 13, 2023 12:46PM

If the West captures your soul, you won't be genuinely happy anywhere else.

Once I felt that openness, everywhere else feels like living under a low, grubby ceiling.


Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/13/2023 12:48PM by Trotsky.

 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: nshapiro (---.phlapa.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 13, 2023 01:01PM

scoop85
BearLover
scoop85
BearLover
scoop85
BearLover
Dafatone
CU2007
I assume after this weekend’s games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.
MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN’s probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Not sure if trolling.

Don’t look at the matrix.

It severely overestimates the likelihood of higher seeds winning (i.e., auto-bids outside the top 16). Our chances are high, but not that high.

No, not trolling. I’m not a stats guy but 20,000 Monte Carlo simualtions, I presume, accounts for all types of outcomes. But it does seem anecdotally to be too high.
Sorry, didn’t mean to accuse you of trolling. This has been discussed in some other threads in the last week or so. The issue is that the model relies on KRACH rankings to predict the likelihood of different outcomes. So the 20,000 simulations are based on flawed probabilities.

Sure, the data coming out is only as good as the data going in.

I don't think that the 99.7% probability is so crazy.

If we just set some simple assumptions:

Probability of
#1 seed winning tournament = 40%
#2 seed winning tournament = 30%
#3 seed winning tournament = 20%
#4 seed winning tournament = 10%

#2 seed beating #3 seed = 60%

then the probability of each of these failing is:

1. We beat Harvard 60%
2. BU wins HE 60%
3. Denver or SCSU wins NCHC 30%
4. Colgate does not win ECAC 10%

so probability of all failing is .6 * .6 * .3 * .1 = .0108 = 1.08%
so probability of Cornell advancing = 100 - 1.08 = 98.92%

Which is 0.78% off of the Monte Carlo result...
of course, it also gives Cornell almost 3x the odds that we miss the tournament than the Monte Carlo does,

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 03/13/2023 01:04PM by nshapiro.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Trotsky (---.net.cia.gov)
Date: March 13, 2023 01:26PM

The 1 and 4 conditions are loosely related (Gate has a slightly higher chance of winning the tournament if we beat Harvard) so you can't just multiply out the probabilities as if they were independent.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: nshapiro (---.phlapa.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 13, 2023 02:38PM

Trotsky
The 1 and 4 conditions are loosely related (Gate has a slightly higher chance of winning the tournament if we beat Harvard) so you can't just multiply out the probabilities as if they were independent.
I know.
I thought about accounting for that, but then decided that it wasn't worth it given the completely arbitrary (but hopefully reasonable) estimates I made for everything. I figured doing the simple calculation I did was sufficient to make my point.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Trotsky (---.net.cia.gov)
Date: March 13, 2023 03:37PM

nshapiro
Trotsky
The 1 and 4 conditions are loosely related (Gate has a slightly higher chance of winning the tournament if we beat Harvard) so you can't just multiply out the probabilities as if they were independent.
I know.
I thought about accounting for that, but then decided that it wasn't worth it given the completely arbitrary (but hopefully reasonable) estimates I made for everything. I figured doing the simple calculation I did was sufficient to make my point.
I was being purposefully obnoxious. A little something I like to call my brand.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: nshapiro (---.phlapa.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 13, 2023 11:46PM

nshapiro
scoop85
BearLover
scoop85
BearLover
scoop85
BearLover
Dafatone
CU2007
I assume after this weekend’s games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.
MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN’s probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Not sure if trolling.

Don’t look at the matrix.

It severely overestimates the likelihood of higher seeds winning (i.e., auto-bids outside the top 16). Our chances are high, but not that high.

No, not trolling. I’m not a stats guy but 20,000 Monte Carlo simualtions, I presume, accounts for all types of outcomes. But it does seem anecdotally to be too high.
Sorry, didn’t mean to accuse you of trolling. This has been discussed in some other threads in the last week or so. The issue is that the model relies on KRACH rankings to predict the likelihood of different outcomes. So the 20,000 simulations are based on flawed probabilities.

Sure, the data coming out is only as good as the data going in.

I don't think that the 99.7% probability is so crazy.

If we just set some simple assumptions:

Probability of
#1 seed winning tournament = 40%
#2 seed winning tournament = 30%
#3 seed winning tournament = 20%
#4 seed winning tournament = 10%

#2 seed beating #3 seed = 60%

then the probability of each of these failing is:

1. We beat Harvard 60%
2. BU wins HE 60%
3. Denver or SCSU wins NCHC 30%
4. Colgate does not win ECAC 10%

so probability of all failing is .6 * .6 * .3 * .1 = .0108 = 1.08%
so probability of Cornell advancing = 100 - 1.08 = 98.92%

Which is 0.78% off of the Monte Carlo result...
of course, it also gives Cornell almost 3x the odds that we miss the tournament than the Monte Carlo does,

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I just realized that beating Hahvahd is not sufficient. We could be 12th in PWR but there might be as many as 5 bid stealers below us if we lose to Colgate in the final
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Dafatone (---.sub-174-235-209.myvzw.com)
Date: March 14, 2023 12:06AM

nshapiro
nshapiro
scoop85
BearLover
scoop85
BearLover
scoop85
BearLover
Dafatone
CU2007
I assume after this weekend’s games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.
MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN’s probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Not sure if trolling.

Don’t look at the matrix.

It severely overestimates the likelihood of higher seeds winning (i.e., auto-bids outside the top 16). Our chances are high, but not that high.

No, not trolling. I’m not a stats guy but 20,000 Monte Carlo simualtions, I presume, accounts for all types of outcomes. But it does seem anecdotally to be too high.
Sorry, didn’t mean to accuse you of trolling. This has been discussed in some other threads in the last week or so. The issue is that the model relies on KRACH rankings to predict the likelihood of different outcomes. So the 20,000 simulations are based on flawed probabilities.

Sure, the data coming out is only as good as the data going in.

I don't think that the 99.7% probability is so crazy.

If we just set some simple assumptions:

Probability of
#1 seed winning tournament = 40%
#2 seed winning tournament = 30%
#3 seed winning tournament = 20%
#4 seed winning tournament = 10%

#2 seed beating #3 seed = 60%

then the probability of each of these failing is:

1. We beat Harvard 60%
2. BU wins HE 60%
3. Denver or SCSU wins NCHC 30%
4. Colgate does not win ECAC 10%

so probability of all failing is .6 * .6 * .3 * .1 = .0108 = 1.08%
so probability of Cornell advancing = 100 - 1.08 = 98.92%

Which is 0.78% off of the Monte Carlo result...
of course, it also gives Cornell almost 3x the odds that we miss the tournament than the Monte Carlo does,

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I just realized that beating Hahvahd is not sufficient. We could be 12th in PWR but there might be as many as 5 bid stealers below us if we lose to Colgate in the final

I'll be damned. Beat Harvard, lose to Colgate, everything else goes wrong, and we are still out.

I'm not even sure our next game matters.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Jeff Hopkins '82 (---.229.45.21.res-cmts.sm.ptd.net)
Date: March 14, 2023 04:51AM

Dafatone
nshapiro
nshapiro
scoop85
BearLover
scoop85
BearLover
scoop85
BearLover
Dafatone
CU2007
I assume after this weekend’s games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.
MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN’s probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Not sure if trolling.

Don’t look at the matrix.

It severely overestimates the likelihood of higher seeds winning (i.e., auto-bids outside the top 16). Our chances are high, but not that high.

No, not trolling. I’m not a stats guy but 20,000 Monte Carlo simualtions, I presume, accounts for all types of outcomes. But it does seem anecdotally to be too high.
Sorry, didn’t mean to accuse you of trolling. This has been discussed in some other threads in the last week or so. The issue is that the model relies on KRACH rankings to predict the likelihood of different outcomes. So the 20,000 simulations are based on flawed probabilities.

Sure, the data coming out is only as good as the data going in.

I don't think that the 99.7% probability is so crazy.

If we just set some simple assumptions:

Probability of
#1 seed winning tournament = 40%
#2 seed winning tournament = 30%
#3 seed winning tournament = 20%
#4 seed winning tournament = 10%

#2 seed beating #3 seed = 60%

then the probability of each of these failing is:

1. We beat Harvard 60%
2. BU wins HE 60%
3. Denver or SCSU wins NCHC 30%
4. Colgate does not win ECAC 10%

so probability of all failing is .6 * .6 * .3 * .1 = .0108 = 1.08%
so probability of Cornell advancing = 100 - 1.08 = 98.92%

Which is 0.78% off of the Monte Carlo result...
of course, it also gives Cornell almost 3x the odds that we miss the tournament than the Monte Carlo does,

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I just realized that beating Hahvahd is not sufficient. We could be 12th in PWR but there might be as many as 5 bid stealers below us if we lose to Colgate in the final

I'll be damned. Beat Harvard, lose to Colgate, everything else goes wrong, and we are still out.

I'm not even sure our next game matters.

I just ran a YATC which had us at 13th and out. It had Merrimack winning HE, and all bid-stealers elsewhere.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: March 14, 2023 08:39AM

QUin/Colgat kicks this off Friday.. I think it becomes a bit clearer before we even go on the ice.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Al DeFlorio (---.hsd1.ma.comcast.net)
Date: March 14, 2023 09:56AM

upprdeck
QUin/Colgat kicks this off Friday.. I think it becomes a bit clearer before we even go on the ice.
So I have to root for Q? Argh!

 
___________________________
Al DeFlorio '65
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 14, 2023 10:00AM

Wow. Okay. So really the key is Colgate not winning the ECAC.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Dafatone (---.sub-174-235-209.myvzw.com)
Date: March 14, 2023 10:02AM

Al DeFlorio
upprdeck
QUin/Colgat kicks this off Friday.. I think it becomes a bit clearer before we even go on the ice.
So I have to root for Q? Argh!

Gotta root for Q, then if the unthinkable happens, gotta root for Sucks. I hate it.

Also, anyone else think it's funny that, in a year where the ECAC was very bad, we are getting 2 to 3 NCAA spots while Hockey East might only get 1 spot or at most 2, CCHA is getting 2, and NCHC is getting 2 or 3?

Big Ten taking up all the spots with 4.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 14, 2023 10:17AM

Per nshapiro’s assumptions, that gives us a 98.2% chance of making the NCAAs. The vast majority of that probability comes from Colgate not winning the ECAC. BTW, CHN’s model, which gives Cornell a 99.7% shot, was quoted in the Daily Sun even though Cornell’s chances of making the tournament are probably around six times lower than what the model says.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: March 14, 2023 10:18AM

If colgate were to win and the other bid stealers fall short the ECAC could get 4.. But why play with fire; First goal is get Cornell in.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 14, 2023 10:25AM

upprdeck
If colgate were to win and the other bid stealers fall short the ECAC could get 4.. But why play with fire; First goal is get Cornell in.
Let’s go Q!
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: nshapiro (---.phlapa.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 14, 2023 10:52AM

BearLover
upprdeck
If colgate were to win and the other bid stealers fall short the ECAC could get 4.. But why play with fire; First goal is get Cornell in.
Let’s go Q!
I'll roll the dice and bet some other bid stealers fail.
I'm rooting for an upstate NY ECAC final.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: nshapiro (---.phlapa.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 14, 2023 10:57AM

BearLover
Per nshapiro’s assumptions, that gives us a 98.2% chance of making the NCAAs. The vast majority of that probability comes from Colgate not winning the ECAC. BTW, CHN’s model, which gives Cornell a 99.7% shot, was quoted in the Daily Sun even though Cornell’s chances of making the tournament are probably around six times lower than what the model says.
I love that you are quoting my numbers, but you do know that conference final four win percentages were picked out of the air, just to prove that the Massey number was not unreasonable, and were further disproved by my realization that winning our semifinal was not sufficient. Also, you should quote my BS number accurately - it was 98.92%, not 98.2%
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 14, 2023 11:11AM

nshapiro
BearLover
Per nshapiro’s assumptions, that gives us a 98.2% chance of making the NCAAs. The vast majority of that probability comes from Colgate not winning the ECAC. BTW, CHN’s model, which gives Cornell a 99.7% shot, was quoted in the Daily Sun even though Cornell’s chances of making the tournament are probably around six times lower than what the model says.
I love that you are quoting my numbers, but you do know that conference final four win percentages were picked out of the air, just to prove that the Massey number was not unreasonable, and were further disproved by my realization that winning our semifinal was not sufficient. Also, you should quote my BS number accurately - it was 98.92%, not 98.2%
I meant that our odds are down to 98.2% now that we know Cornell beating Harvard is not sufficient. Right?
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: andyw2100 (---.stny.res.rr.com)
Date: March 14, 2023 11:15AM

nshapiro
BearLover
upprdeck
If colgate were to win and the other bid stealers fall short the ECAC could get 4.. But why play with fire; First goal is get Cornell in.
Let’s go Q!
I'll roll the dice and bet some other bid stealers fail.
I'm rooting for an upstate NY ECAC final.

This!

I like our chances in the Championship game, if we get there, over Colgate a lot better than our chances over Quinnipiac. I'm rooting hard for Colgate in the early game.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 14, 2023 11:32AM

the only reason to care about the other semifinal is to make the path to a bid easier. the final is one game, that we have to get to in the first place, and we can beat any of the three remaining teams if we get there. we can lose to any of them too, of course, but for all of bearlover's quixotic complaining about people quoting a forecast number he hates as if he's 1-800-GAMBLER the fact is we can win the game in front of us and our agenda for the rest of the world should be "make our path to the NCAA tournament as independent of our own success as possible."

 
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: March 14, 2023 11:43AM

if we are playing Colgate in the finals I dont know that its clear they will be the easier team to beat. they will have beaten Q twice this yr and be playing at a pretty high level.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Dafatone (---.sub-174-235-209.myvzw.com)
Date: March 14, 2023 11:54AM

I don't know that I want to make a claim about who I'd rather play in the game after the game we are currently on, but I will say that "in the finals against Q, in the NCAAs if we lose" is more pleasant and relaxing for me, personally, than "in the finals against Colgate, season over if we lose."

Hopefully Denver and SCSU both win their semi games and we can breathe a bit easier. Also hopefully we win our next six games.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Chris '03 (104.28.55.---)
Date: March 14, 2023 01:12PM

Dafatone
Al DeFlorio
upprdeck
QUin/Colgat kicks this off Friday.. I think it becomes a bit clearer before we even go on the ice.
So I have to root for Q? Argh!

Gotta root for Q, then if the unthinkable happens, gotta root for Sucks. I hate it.

Not interested in seeing Harvard pull even with 12 titles and four since Cornell's most recent title thank you very much. Would rather see the Quinnipiac win if I had to choose in this fictitious game.

 
___________________________
"Mark Mazzoleni looks like a guy whose dog just died out there..."
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: arugula (38.109.75.---)
Date: March 14, 2023 02:47PM

Dafatone
nshapiro
nshapiro
scoop85
BearLover
scoop85
BearLover
scoop85
BearLover
Dafatone
CU2007
I assume after this weekend’s games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.
MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN’s probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Not sure if trolling.

Don’t look at the matrix.

It severely overestimates the likelihood of higher seeds winning (i.e., auto-bids outside the top 16). Our chances are high, but not that high.

No, not trolling. I’m not a stats guy but 20,000 Monte Carlo simualtions, I presume, accounts for all types of outcomes. But it does seem anecdotally to be too high.
Sorry, didn’t mean to accuse you of trolling. This has been discussed in some other threads in the last week or so. The issue is that the model relies on KRACH rankings to predict the likelihood of different outcomes. So the 20,000 simulations are based on flawed probabilities.

Sure, the data coming out is only as good as the data going in.

I don't think that the 99.7% probability is so crazy.

If we just set some simple assumptions:

Probability of
#1 seed winning tournament = 40%
#2 seed winning tournament = 30%
#3 seed winning tournament = 20%
#4 seed winning tournament = 10%

#2 seed beating #3 seed = 60%

then the probability of each of these failing is:

1. We beat Harvard 60%
2. BU wins HE 60%
3. Denver or SCSU wins NCHC 30%
4. Colgate does not win ECAC 10%

so probability of all failing is .6 * .6 * .3 * .1 = .0108 = 1.08%
so probability of Cornell advancing = 100 - 1.08 = 98.92%

Which is 0.78% off of the Monte Carlo result...
of course, it also gives Cornell almost 3x the odds that we miss the tournament than the Monte Carlo does,

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I just realized that beating Hahvahd is not sufficient. We could be 12th in PWR but there might be as many as 5 bid stealers below us if we lose to Colgate in the final

I'll be damned. Beat Harvard, lose to Colgate, everything else goes wrong, and we are still out.

I'm not even sure our next game matters.

Which do you prefer, beating Harvard and missing the tournament or losing to Harvard and making the tournament? I think the latter. Hate wins out
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Dafatone (---.sub-174-235-209.myvzw.com)
Date: March 14, 2023 02:49PM

arugula
Dafatone
nshapiro
nshapiro
scoop85
BearLover
scoop85
BearLover
scoop85
BearLover
Dafatone
CU2007
I assume after this weekend’s games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.
MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN’s probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Not sure if trolling.

Don’t look at the matrix.

It severely overestimates the likelihood of higher seeds winning (i.e., auto-bids outside the top 16). Our chances are high, but not that high.

No, not trolling. I’m not a stats guy but 20,000 Monte Carlo simualtions, I presume, accounts for all types of outcomes. But it does seem anecdotally to be too high.
Sorry, didn’t mean to accuse you of trolling. This has been discussed in some other threads in the last week or so. The issue is that the model relies on KRACH rankings to predict the likelihood of different outcomes. So the 20,000 simulations are based on flawed probabilities.

Sure, the data coming out is only as good as the data going in.

I don't think that the 99.7% probability is so crazy.

If we just set some simple assumptions:

Probability of
#1 seed winning tournament = 40%
#2 seed winning tournament = 30%
#3 seed winning tournament = 20%
#4 seed winning tournament = 10%

#2 seed beating #3 seed = 60%

then the probability of each of these failing is:

1. We beat Harvard 60%
2. BU wins HE 60%
3. Denver or SCSU wins NCHC 30%
4. Colgate does not win ECAC 10%

so probability of all failing is .6 * .6 * .3 * .1 = .0108 = 1.08%
so probability of Cornell advancing = 100 - 1.08 = 98.92%

Which is 0.78% off of the Monte Carlo result...
of course, it also gives Cornell almost 3x the odds that we miss the tournament than the Monte Carlo does,

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I just realized that beating Hahvahd is not sufficient. We could be 12th in PWR but there might be as many as 5 bid stealers below us if we lose to Colgate in the final

I'll be damned. Beat Harvard, lose to Colgate, everything else goes wrong, and we are still out.

I'm not even sure our next game matters.

Which do you prefer, beating Harvard and missing the tournament or losing to Harvard and making the tournament? I think the latter. Hate wins out

I think I'd take an NCAA bid and a Harvard loss over the opposite, if I had to pick. Can't win it all if you don't play.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Scersk '97 (38.81.106.---)
Date: March 14, 2023 04:12PM

Chris '03
Not interested in seeing Harvard pull even with 12 titles and four since Cornell's most recent title thank you very much. Would rather see the Quinnipiac win if I had to choose in this fictitious game.

Flaming pile of asteroid-obliterated rubble it is, then!
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Chris H82 (---.res.spectrum.com)
Date: March 14, 2023 11:32PM

Trotsky
If the West captures your soul, you won't be genuinely happy anywhere else.

How true. I grew up in the West, came to Cornell and then stayed east for 3 years (so many great friends from Cornell). But the West called, and I came back. In Montana now, where it is REALLY open.
[chris-h-stuff.smugmug.com]
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Jeff Hopkins '82 (---.229.45.21.res-cmts.sm.ptd.net)
Date: March 14, 2023 11:43PM

Scersk '97
Chris '03
Not interested in seeing Harvard pull even with 12 titles and four since Cornell's most recent title thank you very much. Would rather see the Quinnipiac win if I had to choose in this fictitious game.

Flaming pile of asteroid-obliterated rubble it is, then!

Exactly.

FTR, I just did a YATC with Colgate losing to Q, us losing to Sucks, Q beating Sucks, and all the other bid-stealers winning. We make the tourney at #12.

If we beat Sucks and lose to Q, and all the other bid-stealers win, we make the tourney at #10.

If we win out and all the other bid-stealers win, we finish at #7.

If we win out and all favorites win, we finish at #8 (which means Fargo). Meh.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 15, 2023 08:10AM

arugula
Which do you prefer, beating Harvard and missing the tournament or losing to Harvard and making the tournament? I think the latter. Hate wins out

The former.

The ECACs will always be the pinnacle for me. The NC$$s are like the Pro Bowl. Cute and all, but extraneous to the real season.

Now, ideally, we beat Harvard in Placid and Tampa.

Hate has a home here.
Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 03/15/2023 08:12AM by Trotsky.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 15, 2023 09:25AM

Trotsky
arugula
Which do you prefer, beating Harvard and missing the tournament or losing to Harvard and making the tournament? I think the latter. Hate wins out

The former.
Even though it's just the semifinal?* Man, I like to win the conference tournament but ...



* I know that facing Harvard in the final doesn't present a dilemma because of the autobid. Put that aside. Thank you.

 
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: abmarks (---.hsd1.ct.comcast.net)
Date: March 15, 2023 04:31PM

Jeff Hopkins '82
Scersk '97
Chris '03
Not interested in seeing Harvard pull even with 12 titles and four since Cornell's most recent title thank you very much. Would rather see the Quinnipiac win if I had to choose in this fictitious game.

Flaming pile of asteroid-obliterated rubble it is, then!

Exactly.

FTR, I just did a YATC with Colgate losing to Q, us losing to Sucks, Q beating Sucks, and all the other bid-stealers winning. We make the tourney at #12.

If we beat Sucks and lose to Q, and all the other bid-stealers win, we make the tourney at #10.

If we win out and all the other bid-stealers win, we finish at #7.

If we win out and all favorites win, we finish at #8 (which means Fargo). Meh.

and chalk across the board puts us at 13.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Trotsky (---.net.cia.gov)
Date: March 15, 2023 04:40PM

ugarte
Trotsky
arugula
Which do you prefer, beating Harvard and missing the tournament or losing to Harvard and making the tournament? I think the latter. Hate wins out

The former.
Even though it's just the semifinal?* Man, I like to win the conference tournament but ...



* I know that facing Harvard in the final doesn't present a dilemma because of the autobid. Put that aside. Thank you.


My crossover line: (fixed)

NCAA F4 > ECAC Champion > NCAA QF > ECAC Finalist > NCAA Bid > ECAC F4
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 03/15/2023 09:42PM by Trotsky.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 15, 2023 04:58PM

i assume that was supposed to start with NCAA final

 
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Trotsky (---.net.cia.gov)
Date: March 15, 2023 05:30PM

ugarte
i assume that was supposed to start with NCAA final
Order within category is assumed. I'm perceptive, not perverse.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 15, 2023 05:56PM

Trotsky
ugarte
i assume that was supposed to start with NCAA final
Order within category is assumed. I'm perceptive, not perverse.
No, I mean you have both NCAA SF and NCAA F4. I was setting you up to edit and reply "what do you mean?"

 

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/15/2023 05:57PM by ugarte.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 15, 2023 09:40PM

ugarte
Trotsky
ugarte
i assume that was supposed to start with NCAA final
Order within category is assumed. I'm perceptive, not perverse.
No, I mean you have both NCAA SF and NCAA F4. I was setting you up to edit and reply "what do you mean?"
Oh shit. I suck. Fixed.

Evidently I'm not perceptive either.
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 03/15/2023 09:43PM by Trotsky.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: dbilmes (64.224.255.---)
Date: March 20, 2023 09:32PM

Here's a list of ECAC players in Transfer Portal that was posted on Twitter earlier today.

Michael Hodge (F, Union)
Reid Leibold (F, RPI)
James McIsaac (F, RPI)
Henri Schreifels (F, RPI)
Matthew Hubbarde (F, Dartmouth)
Greg Japchen (D, Union)
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 20, 2023 10:59PM

dbilmes
Here's a list of ECAC players in Transfer Portal that was posted on Twitter earlier today.

Michael Hodge (F, Union)
Reid Leibold (F, RPI)
James McIsaac (F, RPI)
Henri Schreifels (F, RPI)
Matthew Hubbarde (F, Dartmouth)
Greg Japchen (D, Union)
Not a great look for Kathy Hochul

 
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Beeeej (Moderator)
Date: March 20, 2023 11:07PM

ugarte
dbilmes
Here's a list of ECAC players in Transfer Portal that was posted on Twitter earlier today.

Michael Hodge (F, Union)
Reid Leibold (F, RPI)
James McIsaac (F, RPI)
Henri Schreifels (F, RPI)
Matthew Hubbarde (F, Dartmouth)
Greg Japchen (D, Union)
Not a great look for Kathy Hochul

The Great Route 7 Massacre!

 
___________________________
Beeeej, Esq.

"Cornell isn't an organization. It's a loose affiliation of independent fiefdoms united by a common hockey team."
- Steve Worona
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: marty (---.nycap.res.rr.com)
Date: March 20, 2023 11:08PM

ugarte
dbilmes
Here's a list of ECAC players in Transfer Portal that was posted on Twitter earlier today.

Michael Hodge (F, Union)
Reid Leibold (F, RPI)
James McIsaac (F, RPI)
Henri Schreifels (F, RPI)
Matthew Hubbarde (F, Dartmouth)
Greg Japchen (D, Union)
Not a great look for Kathy Hochul

But seriously, the lasting legacy of Shirley Jackson.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: ursusminor (---.res.east.verizon.net)
Date: March 21, 2023 01:42AM

I suspect that these three Engineers entered the portal because they got little playing time at RPI, and they probably wouldn't next year either. A matter of fact, Leibold left Troy in midseason. Ryan Mahshie is the biggest loss of those who entered the portal so far from RPI in my opinion.
Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 03/21/2023 05:17AM by ursusminor.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 21, 2023 04:59AM

marty
ugarte
dbilmes
Here's a list of ECAC players in Transfer Portal that was posted on Twitter earlier today.

Michael Hodge (F, Union)
Reid Leibold (F, RPI)
James McIsaac (F, RPI)
Henri Schreifels (F, RPI)
Matthew Hubbarde (F, Dartmouth)
Greg Japchen (D, Union)
Not a great look for Kathy Hochul

But seriously, the lasting legacy of Shirley Jackson.
A haunting, if you will.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 21, 2023 05:03AM

dbilmes
Here's a list of ECAC players in Transfer Portal that was posted on Twitter earlier today.

I thought I had read that Peter Muzyka entered the portal.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: ursusminor (---.res.east.verizon.net)
Date: March 21, 2023 05:18AM

Trotsky
dbilmes
Here's a list of ECAC players in Transfer Portal that was posted on Twitter earlier today.

I thought I had read that Peter Muzyka entered the portal.

He did, but he did not enter yesterday.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 21, 2023 08:08AM

The full portal. It's... extensive.

Totals for ECAC teams:

Qpc 0
Hvd 0
Cor 1
SLU 2
Cgt 0
Clk 0
RPI 5
Uni 4
Prn 3
Yal 3
Brn 7
Drt 4

If you go into the portal and nobody picks you up can you play for your old school or are you DQed?
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 21, 2023 08:13AM

On the Women's List there are some massive groups. Is using the portal a premeditated hopping strategy?

12 Post
10 Franklin Pierce
 9 Maine
 9 Syracuse
 7 St. Cloud
 7 SLU
 6 Merrimack
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: scoop85 (---.nyc.biz.rr.com)
Date: March 21, 2023 09:07AM

You can always withdraw your name and stay at your school.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 21, 2023 09:27AM

scoop85
You can always withdraw your name and stay at your school.
i think the primary effect/purpose of entering the portal is allowing other coaches to contact you

 
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: March 21, 2023 09:53AM

scoop85
You can always withdraw your name and stay at your school.

Only partially true.

If you go into the portal the school does not have to hold your scholie for you if they dont want to.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: scoop85 (---.sub-174-197-194.myvzw.com)
Date: March 21, 2023 10:28AM

upprdeck
scoop85
You can always withdraw your name and stay at your school.

Only partially true.

If you go into the portal the school does not have to hold your scholie for you if they dont want to.

Fair point. I was thinking with Ivy brain where scholarships aren't an issue
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: March 21, 2023 10:30AM

I wonder if the ivy school could pull the financial aid package deal as part of this if they wanted?
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: ursusminor (---.res.east.verizon.net)
Date: March 21, 2023 11:08AM

Trotsky
The full portal. It's... extensive.

Totals for ECAC teams:

Qpc 0
Hvd 0
Cor 1
SLU 2
Cgt 0
Clk 0
RPI 5
Uni 4
Prn 3
Yal 3
Brn 7
Drt 4

If you go into the portal and nobody picks you up can you play for your old school or are you DQed?

I don't know what list you are looking at, but RPI has 6, the three mentioned by Dbilmes, Klee, Mahshie, and Walsh.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 21, 2023 12:16PM

upprdeck
I wonder if the ivy school could pull the financial aid package deal as part of this if they wanted?
i think crossing the streams of theoretically objective "need-based aid" and athletic department concerns about the transfer portal would cause more problems than it would solve

 
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Trotsky (---.net.cia.gov)
Date: March 21, 2023 12:37PM

upprdeck
I wonder if the ivy school could pull the financial aid package deal as part of this if they wanted?
Wouldn't that be saying the quiet part out loud?
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Trotsky (---.net.cia.gov)
Date: March 21, 2023 12:39PM

ursusminor
I don't know what list you are looking at, but RPI has 6, the three mentioned by Dbilmes, Klee, Mahshie, and Walsh.

I can't count.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 26, 2023 01:26PM

Farrell to Harvard: Drop Dead.


The Montreal Canadiens have announced that the team has agreed to terms on a three-year, entry-level contract with Harvard sophomore forward Sean Farrell.

Farrell gives up his remaining eligibility with the Crimson.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/26/2023 01:27PM by Trotsky.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 26, 2023 01:39PM

Coronato watch now begins.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Scersk '97 (38.81.106.---)
Date: March 26, 2023 01:42PM

So next year's Harvard-Cornell games are going to be our high-powered offense, with our drafted and likely to be drafted group coming in, against their shut-down defense. Wild.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 26, 2023 01:48PM

More on Coronato and the Flames.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/26/2023 01:50PM by Trotsky.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 26, 2023 02:18PM

Scersk '97
So next year's Harvard-Cornell games are going to be our high-powered offense, with our drafted and likely to be drafted group coming in, against their shut-down defense. Wild.
Harvard will be less talented next year. But in terms of drafted forwards, they’ll still be crushing us. With Stienburg and Malone graduating, the only drafted forward on next year’s team may be freshman Luke Devlin, as compared to maybe seven or so for Harvard.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 26, 2023 02:21PM

Today reminds us blue chippahs are a double-edged sword.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Scersk '97 (38.81.106.---)
Date: March 26, 2023 02:29PM

BearLover
Scersk '97
So next year's Harvard-Cornell games are going to be our high-powered offense, with our drafted and likely to be drafted group coming in, against their shut-down defense. Wild.
Harvard will be less talented next year. But in terms of drafted forwards, they’ll still be crushing us. With Stienburg and Malone graduating, the only drafted forward on next year’s team may be freshman Luke Devlin, as compared to maybe seven or so for Harvard.

I don't care about the draft.

But, if you want to see it that way, I guess Harvard can crush us with all their 5th- and 6th-rounders that Teddy will surely bring to full flower as he has in the past. And, anyway, a few of our guys are going to be drafted, obviously Walsh.
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 03/26/2023 02:34PM by Scersk '97.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 26, 2023 02:43PM

Scersk '97
BearLover
Scersk '97
So next year's Harvard-Cornell games are going to be our high-powered offense, with our drafted and likely to be drafted group coming in, against their shut-down defense. Wild.
Harvard will be less talented next year. But in terms of drafted forwards, they’ll still be crushing us. With Stienburg and Malone graduating, the only drafted forward on next year’s team may be freshman Luke Devlin, as compared to maybe seven or so for Harvard.

I don't care about the draft.

But, if you want to see it that way, I guess Harvard can crush us with all their 5th- and 6th-rounders that Teddy will surely bring to full flower as he has in the past. And, anyway, a few of our guys are going to be drafted, obviously Walsh.
You’re the one who brought up the draft, not I. But it sounds like we are in agreement that Harvard’s talent advantage is going to take a dip.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: scoop85 (---.hvc.res.rr.com)
Date: March 26, 2023 02:44PM

Scersk '97
BearLover
Scersk '97
So next year's Harvard-Cornell games are going to be our high-powered offense, with our drafted and likely to be drafted group coming in, against their shut-down defense. Wild.
Harvard will be less talented next year. But in terms of drafted forwards, they’ll still be crushing us. With Stienburg and Malone graduating, the only drafted forward on next year’s team may be freshman Luke Devlin, as compared to maybe seven or so for Harvard.

I don't care about the draft.

But, if you want to see it that way, I guess Harvard can crush us with all their 5th- and 6th-rounders that Teddy will surely bring to full flower as he has in the past. And, anyway, a few of our guys are going to be drafted, obviously Walsh.

Walsh is an older guy, so I don’t think he’ll be drafted. Our most likely draftees will be Hoyt Stanley and Jonathan Castagna, neither of whom I’d expect to see next fall.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: scoop85 (---.hvc.res.rr.com)
Date: March 26, 2023 02:46PM

Trotsky
Today reminds us blue chippahs are a double-edged sword.

Farrell was only a 4th rounder, so probably doesn’t fit the definition of blue chipper by draft status.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 26, 2023 02:59PM

Every player from Massachusetts who goes to Harvard, BC, or BU is, by definition, a blue chippah. They all have little halos.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: RichH (104.28.39.---)
Date: March 26, 2023 03:08PM

Trotsky
Every player from Massachusetts who goes to Harvard, BC, or BU is, by definition, a blue chippah. They all have little halos.

The outcasts get banished to Northeastern, UMass, and god forbid, Merrimack.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: abmarks (---.mycingular.net)
Date: March 26, 2023 04:20PM

Trotsky
Today reminds us blue chippahs are a double-edged sword.

Only if you don't have another blue-chipper coming in next year.

"Next blue chipper up!"
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: abmarks (---.mycingular.net)
Date: March 26, 2023 04:27PM

scoop85
Trotsky
Today reminds us blue chippahs are a double-edged sword.

Farrell was only a 4th rounder, so probably doesn’t fit the definition of blue chipper by draft status.

Trotsky
Every player from Massachusetts who goes to Harvard, BC, or BU is, by definition, a blue chippah. They all have little halos.

Farrell is from hopkinton, mass. I assume Trotsky knew that...
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Al DeFlorio (---.hsd1.ma.comcast.net)
Date: March 26, 2023 06:14PM

Q 2-1 over OSU with 8 min left. OSU outshooting Q 23-3 in periods 2 and 3.

 
___________________________
Al DeFlorio '65
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Larry72 (---.twcny.rr.com)
Date: March 26, 2023 06:30PM

As much as I dislike Q, they played a really solid 3rd period. Kept OSU on the perimeter for much of the period and game. Wonder where they learned that from ...

 
___________________________
Larry Baum '72
Ithaca, NY
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: scoop85 (---.hvc.res.rr.com)
Date: March 26, 2023 06:47PM

BU?
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 26, 2023 07:35PM

Quinnipiac has now made the frozen four three times since the last time Cornell did. What a disgrace.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: dbilmes (64.224.255.---)
Date: March 26, 2023 07:48PM

BearLover
Quinnipiac has now made the frozen four three times since the last time Cornell did. What a disgrace.
Maybe we should get cheerleaders for our team, too.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: scoop85 (---.hvc.res.rr.com)
Date: March 26, 2023 08:10PM

Coronado signed with Calgary this evening. Rough week for Harvard

bananabananabanana
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: RichH (104.28.55.---)
Date: March 26, 2023 08:22PM

BearLover
Quinnipiac has now made the frozen four three times since the last time Cornell did. What a disgrace.

Same number of titles, and we eliminated them once. But yes, that was before they decided to run their program like an ECHL franchise both in entertainment value and academic integrity. There’s a reason every coach in the league hates Rand.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/26/2023 08:27PM by RichH.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Scersk '97 (38.81.106.---)
Date: March 26, 2023 08:23PM

BearLover
Quinnipiac has now made the frozen four three times since the last time Cornell did. What a disgrace.

And between 1980 and 2003, Harvard made it five times and won a championship. And between 2003 and now, Union made it twice, and Harvard and Yale made it once each, and Yale and Union won championships. And there was a once a stretch in which the ECAC very rarely had more than two teams in the tournament, and two times (2001 and 2004) we only had one. This year we had four, and we recently commonly get three, with 2021 as an obvious aberration.

So, what exactly is your point? It's not an exact fucking science. There are ups and downs. But in no way is how this program has performed at any time during Schafer's tenure a disgrace. I loved the team when I was in school; we play much better hockey at a consistently higher level now. I would have loved for us to win a championship when I was young, but it was a pipe dream; it's basically never a pipe dream now.

I only engage because your analysis in other situations warrants it. Go touch some grass and get some fucking perspective.

(And anyway, QU was lucky to escape that one. I expect them to get blasted at the Frozen Four.)
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 26, 2023 09:05PM

Scersk '97
BearLover
Quinnipiac has now made the frozen four three times since the last time Cornell did. What a disgrace.

And between 1980 and 2003, Harvard made it five times and won a championship. And between 2003 and now, Union made it twice, and Harvard and Yale made it once each, and Yale and Union won championships. And there was a once a stretch in which the ECAC very rarely had more than two teams in the tournament, and two times (2001 and 2004) we only had one. This year we had four, and we recently commonly get three, with 2021 as an obvious aberration.

So, what exactly is your point? It's not an exact fucking science. There are ups and downs. But in no way is how this program has performed at any time during Schafer's tenure a disgrace. I loved the team when I was in school; we play much better hockey at a consistently higher level now. I would have loved for us to win a championship when I was young, but it was a pipe dream; it's basically never a pipe dream now.

I only engage because your analysis in other situations warrants it. Go touch some grass and get some fucking perspective.

(And anyway, QU was lucky to escape that one. I expect them to get blasted at the Frozen Four.)
In my opinion, it is disgraceful that a totally random school no one has ever heard of with zero hockey tradition and zero academic standards went division 1 like 25 years ago and surpassed the Cornell hockey program. It was demoralizing when Yale and Union won, too.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/26/2023 09:06PM by BearLover.
 
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23
Posted by: Scersk '97 (38.81.106.---)
Date: March 26, 2023 09:10PM

BearLover
In my opinion, it is disgraceful that a totally random school no one has ever heard of with zero hockey tradition and zero academic standards went division 1 like 25 years ago and surpassed the Cornell hockey program. It was demoralizing when Yale and Union won, too.

Whatever, dude.
 
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