Corona Virus And Playoff Games

Am I the only one worried that Cornell or the ECAC could make the decision to play games without fans present in an attempt to prevent the spread of the Corona virus?

The decision was just made to not have spectators at the NCAA Division III basketball tournament at Johns Hopkins:

[baltimore.cbslocal.com]
[www.foxnews.com]

And last night I received an email message from Cornell Vice President Ryan Lombardi that said:

"Large On- and Off-Campus Events

Effective Monday, March 9, we are postponing or canceling large (more than 100 people), non-essential events or work-related gatherings scheduled through April 15. This includes events sponsored by the university, colleges, schools, departments or units, as well as student-sponsored events, where a significant number of participants are expected to travel to or from the region for the event. This policy does not include on-campus events where participation is primarily by Cornell audiences."

I'm guessing athletic events are not yet included in the above, since nothing is said about them explicitly, but even so, I am worried.

Thoughts?

I'm not "worried." If it happens, it sucks yeah but it happens.

There's really no way to predict the likelihood at the moment. It's like everything else: balance the revenue of attendance against the expected value of the lawsuits if something happens. If you're above the crossing point you let steerage in.

andyw2100
Am I the only one worried that Cornell or the ECAC could make the decision to play games without fans present in an attempt to prevent the spread of the Corona virus?

The decision was just made to not have spectators at the NCAA Division III basketball tournament at Johns Hopkins:

[baltimore.cbslocal.com]
[www.foxnews.com]

And last night I received an email message from Cornell Vice President Ryan Lombardi that said:

"Large On- and Off-Campus Events

Effective Monday, March 9, we are postponing or canceling large (more than 100 people), non-essential events or work-related gatherings scheduled through April 15. This includes events sponsored by the university, colleges, schools, departments or units, as well as student-sponsored events, where a significant number of participants are expected to travel to or from the region for the event. This policy does not include on-campus events where participation is primarily by Cornell audiences."

I'm guessing athletic events are not yet included in the above, since nothing is said about them explicitly, but even so, I am worried.

Thoughts?

Cornell probably doesn't know yet. It knows students and attending alumni will be pissed if they can't go to the games. Yes, they have to balance revenue vs. yada yada safety yada yada. But a place like Cornell is risk-averse.

It sounds as if the QF round games don't need to ban fans. They're kind of doing it on their own.

Perhaps non-student fans could simply act like grown-ass adults by being safe and smart and staying home if they are in a high-risk group, which, for this virus, includes unfortunately just being older, or are often in close contact with those in a high-risk group through living situation or employment. Then we wouldn’t have to de-audience the games to protect them.

(After all, college dorms are pretty much built disease vectors, so community transmission is a certainty on college campuses. If you’re in a high-risk group, it might be a good idea to avoid contact with, well, students of any age.)

If games ended up being played in front of exclusively college-aged audiences, I’d be pretty fine with that.

The CCC just put out a release that says the Rap concert will go on as planned in Barton Hall on March 22nd. Concerts bring a large contingent of out of town folks to campus, so how serious is the administration ? I can't see them not allowing fans in Lynah and at the same time allow 4,000 people to a concert in Barton.

Cop at Lynah
The CCC just put out a release that says the Rap concert will go on as planned in Barton Hall on March 22nd. Concerts bring a large contingent of out of town folks to campus, so how serious is the administration ? I can't see them not allowing fans in Lynah and at the same time allow 4,000 people to a concert in Barton.

That is great news! Thanks for sharing!

From today's Ithaca Journal.

Next weekend is still on (so far).

I've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

adamw
I've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

And, if Cornell wins those fanless NCAA's without me being there, I will carry hard-on for the rest of my life that I did NOT get to see that one either!!! Son of a bitch!!!!!!

maybe they just dont allow people over 60 to attend any mass events.. there goes 75% of the home crowd.

cornell gets almost no money from hosting these playoff games anyway, they dont keep the ticket money and they dont kill it with revenue from concessions.

adamw
I've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

Cases are doubling partially because there are finally tests available for patients to be tested. Initially, if you couldn't be tested, you couldn't be diagnosed. Now that testing is available, cases are being found.

So that data interpretation is not valid. Yes cases are increasing, but we don't really know at what rate.

The fact the we couldn't test before is another example of our government failure. The WHO had a testing kit, but we had to try and develop a better one. And that test kit turned out to be in error, setting back the whole process.

adamw
I've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

It might even become half as widespread as influenza by then.

Jim Hyla

adamw
I've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

Cases are doubling partially because there are finally tests available for patients to be tested. Initially, if you couldn't be tested, you couldn't be diagnosed. Now that testing is available, cases are being found.

So that data interpretation is not valid. Yes cases are increasing, but we don't really know at what rate.

The fact the we couldn't test before is another example of our government failure. The WHO had a testing kit, but we had to try and develop a better one. And that test kit turned out to be in error, setting back the whole process.

correct.

what would the flu numbers be if we tested for it?

Now THAT'S the kind of existential question which makes this website worth following!

Jim Hyla

adamw
I've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

Cases are doubling partially because there are finally tests available for patients to be tested. Initially, if you couldn't be tested, you couldn't be diagnosed. Now that testing is available, cases are being found.

So that data interpretation is not valid. Yes cases are increasing, but we don't really know at what rate.

The fact the we couldn't test before is another example of our government failure. The WHO had a testing kit, but we had to try and develop a better one. And that test kit turned out to be in error, setting back the whole process.

Whether they are actual new cases, or existing ones we had not been able to test for previously, the point is that the number of known cases are still going up, and that is not going to make people feel any safer about having large crowds get together.

osorojo
Now THAT'S the kind of existential question which makes this website worth following!

Please go lick a Wuhan subway pole.

French Rage

Jim Hyla

adamw
I've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

Cases are doubling partially because there are finally tests available for patients to be tested. Initially, if you couldn't be tested, you couldn't be diagnosed. Now that testing is available, cases are being found.

So that data interpretation is not valid. Yes cases are increasing, but we don't really know at what rate.

The fact the we couldn't test before is another example of our government failure. The WHO had a testing kit, but we had to try and develop a better one. And that test kit turned out to be in error, setting back the whole process.

Whether they are actual new cases, or existing ones we had not been able to test for previously, the point is that the number of known cases are still going up, and that is not going to make people feel any safer about having large crowds get together.

I certainly agree the numbers are increasing. However my point was not against that, but that to talk about them doubling every couple of days was wrong, and I think overly worrisome.

Our president tries to downplay the numbers and their risks. It's just as bad to overplay the numbers and risks. Right now, for most of the US, flu is a much bigger problem and we shouldn't over hype the problem of the new virus.

I'm not saying don't be concerned, but look at things logically and act accordingly.

I certainly do not feel any worry about going to CU games this weekend and unless things change a lot, no worry about the Quarters or LP.

It's certainly too far in the future to change plans for the regionals or Detroit.

adamw
I've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

Jim Hyla

French Rage

Jim Hyla

adamw
I've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

Cases are doubling partially because there are finally tests available for patients to be tested. Initially, if you couldn't be tested, you couldn't be diagnosed. Now that testing is available, cases are being found.

So that data interpretation is not valid. Yes cases are increasing, but we don't really know at what rate.

The fact the we couldn't test before is another example of our government failure. The WHO had a testing kit, but we had to try and develop a better one. And that test kit turned out to be in error, setting back the whole process.

Whether they are actual new cases, or existing ones we had not been able to test for previously, the point is that the number of known cases are still going up, and that is not going to make people feel any safer about having large crowds get together.

I certainly agree the numbers are increasing. However my point was not against that, but that to talk about them doubling every couple of days was wrong, and I think overly worrisome.

Our president tries to downplay the numbers and their risks. It's just as bad to overplay the numbers and risks. Right now, for most of the US, flu is a much bigger problem and we shouldn't over hype the problem of the new virus.

I'm not saying don't be concerned, but look at things logically and act accordingly.

I certainly do not feel any worry about going to CU games this weekend and unless things change a lot, no worry about the Quarters or LP.

It's certainly too far in the future to change plans for the regionals or Detroit.

+1000 (and increasing)

Jim Hyla

French Rage

Jim Hyla

adamw
I've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

Cases are doubling partially because there are finally tests available for patients to be tested. Initially, if you couldn't be tested, you couldn't be diagnosed. Now that testing is available, cases are being found.

So that data interpretation is not valid. Yes cases are increasing, but we don't really know at what rate.

The fact the we couldn't test before is another example of our government failure. The WHO had a testing kit, but we had to try and develop a better one. And that test kit turned out to be in error, setting back the whole process.

Whether they are actual new cases, or existing ones we had not been able to test for previously, the point is that the number of known cases are still going up, and that is not going to make people feel any safer about having large crowds get together.

I certainly agree the numbers are increasing. However my point was not against that, but that to talk about them doubling every couple of days was wrong, and I think overly worrisome.

Our president tries to downplay the numbers and their risks. It's just as bad to overplay the numbers and risks. Right now, for most of the US, flu is a much bigger problem and we shouldn't over hype the problem of the new virus.

I'm not saying don't be concerned, but look at things logically and act accordingly.

I certainly do not feel any worry about going to CU games this weekend and unless things change a lot, no worry about the Quarters or LP.

It's certainly too far in the future to change plans for the regionals or Detroit.

Agreed.

upprdeck
what would the flu numbers be if we tested for it?

Flu as in influenza? 8% afflicted (normal year), 0.1% die - 1 of 1000

COVID-19, we know the numerator (deaths) but not denominator (cases), 2% die - 20 of 1000 - but maybe it's 3.4%. The deaths by decade of age are around 1% for people through their forties at least, when the overall mortality rate as said to be 2%, then starts upward in your sixties. It's ~14% for people in the their seventies which means the last full Democratic debate, they should have had spray shields between Sanders, Biden and Warren. Those numbers are what I've found. Most of the deaths of the alte kakers, people had something else going on like asthma, emphysema, heart disease.

I was about to say both the president and vice president are in their 70s as well but, no, the VP is just 60 and must be using silver highlighting because it's all one color for him.

upprdeck
maybe they just dont allow people over 60 to attend any mass events.. there goes 75% of the home crowd.

cornell gets almost no money from hosting these playoff games anyway, they dont keep the ticket money and they dont kill it with revenue from concessions.

But the coaches are paid from another pot of money. And the ECAC pays for travel, officiating costs and event staff. So it's a no-cost event. Plus think of the positive impact on the local economy. Think of all the drinking Cornell alums do before and after in all the Collegetown ba__

billhoward

upprdeck
what would the flu numbers be if we tested for it?

Flu as in influenza? 8% afflicted (normal year), 0.1% die - 1 of 1000

COVID-19, we know the numerator (deaths) but not denominator (cases), 2% die - 20 of 1000 - but maybe it's 3.4%. The deaths by decade of age are around 1% for people through their forties at least, when the overall mortality rate as said to be 2%, then starts upward in your sixties. It's ~14% for people in the their seventies which means the last full Democratic debate, they should have had spray shields between Sanders, Biden and Warren. Those numbers are what I've found. Most of the deaths of the alte kakers, people had something else going on like asthma, emphysema, heart disease.

I was about to say both the president and vice president are in their 70s as well but, no, the VP is just 60 and must be using silver highlighting because it's all one color for him.

Bill, when you say we know the numerator (deaths), but not denominator (cases), why do you then say that the 2% mortality maybe 3.4%?

We don't know the denominator because only really sick people are tested. That means if we did wider testing the denominator would expand, but not the numerator.

So the death rate would go down, not up.

Jim Hyla

billhoward

upprdeck
what would the flu numbers be if we tested for it?

Flu as in influenza? 8% afflicted (normal year), 0.1% die - 1 of 1000

COVID-19, we know the numerator (deaths) but not denominator (cases), 2% die - 20 of 1000 - but maybe it's 3.4%. The deaths by decade of age are around 1% for people through their forties at least, when the overall mortality rate as said to be 2%, then starts upward in your sixties. It's ~14% for people in the their seventies which means the last full Democratic debate, they should have had spray shields between Sanders, Biden and Warren. Those numbers are what I've found. Most of the deaths of the alte kakers, people had something else going on like asthma, emphysema, heart disease.

I was about to say both the president and vice president are in their 70s as well but, no, the VP is just 60 and must be using silver highlighting because it's all one color for him.

Bill, when you say we know the numerator (deaths), but not denominator (cases), why do you then say that the 2% mortality maybe 3.4%?

We don't know the denominator because only really sick people are tested. That means if we did wider testing the denominator would expand, but not the numerator.

So the death rate would go down, not up.

[www.vox.com]

It’s probably a lot lower.

toddlose

Jim Hyla

billhoward

upprdeck
what would the flu numbers be if we tested for it?

Flu as in influenza? 8% afflicted (normal year), 0.1% die - 1 of 1000

COVID-19, we know the numerator (deaths) but not denominator (cases), 2% die - 20 of 1000 - but maybe it's 3.4%. The deaths by decade of age are around 1% for people through their forties at least, when the overall mortality rate as said to be 2%, then starts upward in your sixties. It's ~14% for people in the their seventies which means the last full Democratic debate, they should have had spray shields between Sanders, Biden and Warren. Those numbers are what I've found. Most of the deaths of the alte kakers, people had something else going on like asthma, emphysema, heart disease.

I was about to say both the president and vice president are in their 70s as well but, no, the VP is just 60 and must be using silver highlighting because it's all one color for him.

Bill, when you say we know the numerator (deaths), but not denominator (cases), why do you then say that the 2% mortality maybe 3.4%?

We don't know the denominator because only really sick people are tested. That means if we did wider testing the denominator would expand, but not the numerator.

So the death rate would go down, not up.

[www.vox.com]

It’s probably a lot lower.

Thanks, good article and now I know where Bill got the 3.4 figure.

The 2% death rate for coronavirus was the one cited by China and then by US people. Only this week was it revised in the US to be 3.4%, there is belief the ratio may edge back to ~2%, and there is general agreement that the executive branch has not done a reassuring job including have a "hunch" about what the real number is.

The thing the public should bear in mind is that coronavirus appears to be 20x more likely to result in death than the average case of the flu in an average year. If you get it. And also that single number of 2% or 3.4% is on the order of 20 (or 34) times worse than getting the flu. And that a disprotionate number of fatal outcomes are in people of social security years.

Me, I haven't been to China in years. Our son came close to being hired to work in China helping their athletes prep for the 2022 Olympics. He was disappointed not to go. Now we're kind of glad he didn't.

I was also disappointed there's no toilet paper at Costco (we're down to a half-dozen six-packs). Instead, they put another 30 running feet of Bounty paper towels in place of the missing TP. Costco has a list of about 20 items you can only buy two of: TP, Purell, Lysol. I'd love to see them put a couple slow-selling items on just to move the inventory, like (this is NJ) a Taylor Hall / Devils jersey bobblehead doll.

French Rage

Jim Hyla

adamw
I've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

Cases are doubling partially because there are finally tests available for patients to be tested. Initially, if you couldn't be tested, you couldn't be diagnosed. Now that testing is available, cases are being found.

So that data interpretation is not valid. Yes cases are increasing, but we don't really know at what rate.

The fact the we couldn't test before is another example of our government failure. The WHO had a testing kit, but we had to try and develop a better one. And that test kit turned out to be in error, setting back the whole process.

Whether they are actual new cases, or existing ones we had not been able to test for previously, the point is that the number of known cases are still going up, and that is not going to make people feel any safer about having large crowds get together.

ah fuck John's going to make another chart I don't understand

There's a good discussion of this between doctors on of all places USCHO Cafe. One fun fact: lethality is contextual because infections can hit numbers that overwhelm local facilities. So if hospitals have good funding and staffing patients can go through ventilation properly, lethality may only be in small fractions of a percent. But places that cut their funding or have, I dunno, ludicrous social policies which disincentify quality medical service providers to live there, will be quickly overwhelmed and unable to provide proper end-to end treatment. Result: lethality of 2-3% or even higher.

Bravo for life's little ironies.

millions of people get the flu shot, thousands still die and unknown numbers get the flu but dont even know it because its so mild.

we are only really testing people that we think have it and we have no vaccine. if we tested everyone more people we may find out dramatically different numbers on how many have it and how many have serious symptoms.

upprdeck
millions of people get the flu shot, thousands still die and unknown numbers get the flu but dont even know it because its so mild.

we are only really testing people that we think have it and we have no vaccine. if we tested everyone more people we may find out dramatically different numbers on how many have it and how many have serious symptoms.

Agree, I suspect that the death ratio will end up something significantly below 1%. The above mentioned Vox article reported that when South Korea started doing something like mass testing, their death rate was measured around 0.5%.

Unfortunately it’s easy to find stats that seem to suggest that this is like the worst thing ever, but with China’s number of new cases decreasing, it may also be that the disease may not stay around as long as we think.

Mass hysteria is not what’s needed at this time.

Data source:

[www.worldometers.info]

I agree with the consensus here that there is a lot of variability in who is getting tested. I bet the current number of infections in the US is a lot higher than 442 and consequently the mortality rate is much lower.

The problem with only allowing young people to attend sporting events or any large gathering is that although they will probably be fine if they get the infection, they potentially become COVID-19 vectors.

For the long pull, the whole planet needs to step up on the development of specific vaccines and non-specific anti-viral agents for upper respiratory infections. This COVID-19 problem will be resolved at some point (months if we are very lucky, a year or two if we are not) but then something else is bound to come along with the next mutant form of coronavirus, H1N1 virus or whatever.

Sorry for the soap-boxing.

Who says numbers don't lie. The chart makes no sense, the totals don't come close to the sum of the figures

Cop at Lynah
Who says numbers don't lie. The chart makes no sense, the totals don't come close to the sum of the figures

Okay, I fixed the errors.

Jim Hyla

upprdeck
millions of people get the flu shot, thousands still die and unknown numbers get the flu but dont even know it because its so mild.

we are only really testing people that we think have it and we have no vaccine. if we tested everyone more people we may find out dramatically different numbers on how many have it and how many have serious symptoms.

Agree, I suspect that the death ratio will end up something significantly below 1%. The above mentioned Vox article reported that when South Korea started doing something like mass testing, their death rate was measured around 0.5%.

Unfortunately it’s easy to find stats that seem to suggest that this is like the worst thing ever, but with China’s number of new cases decreasing, it may also be that the disease may not stay around as long as we think.

Mass hysteria is not what’s needed at this time.

+1

Granted my numbers about being in the millions by end of March may be considered hysteria - but I am not personally hysterical

I would go to LP and the NCAAs with no real concern, personally, and I'm 49. But I do believe we will continue to see over-reactions by sports leagues and other places of large gatherings - because everyone is afraid that, if they don't do something, they'll get blasted for being clueless or insensitive. So there's going to be this groundswell of peer pressure, so to speak, for sports leagues to take action. That's just my prediction. I hope it's wrong.

Hopefully if they play these games in closed buildings, they'll let the media in

adamw
I would go to LP and the NCAAs with no real concern, personally, and I'm 49. But I do believe we will continue to see over-reactions by sports leagues and other places of large gatherings - because everyone is afraid that, if they don't do something, they'll get blasted for being clueless or insensitive.

Or, "worse," sued. Or, maybe, they'll turn out to have been right. This nation, for all the reasons mentioned above, is, when compared with the other rich nations of the world, uniquely ill-suited to dealing with a pandemic. Mass panic is probably unwarranted, but a little bit of panic, as I have seen mentioned even by experts in high places, goes a long way and may be beneficial in the face of a great many unknowns.

Too bad we didn't do useful things with the month or so of lead time that China bought us all with its typically autocratic but in this case useful response to the outbreak. Then we all could have been making decisions based on numbers instead of well- or ill-informed conjectures of what those numbers might turn out to be.

It's not hard to imagine lawsuits arising from people who attended a sporting event and within 14 days tested positive for coronavirus. BIG $!Sports venues are certain to be considering this fact while they decide whether or not to open to the public.

adamw
(A)Granted my numbers about being in the millions by end of March may be considered hysteria - but I am not personally hysterical

I would go to LP and the NCAAs with no real concern, personally, and I'm 49. But I do believe we will continue to see over-reactions by sports leagues and other places of large gatherings - because everyone is afraid that, if they don't do something, they'll get blasted for being clueless or insensitive. (B)So there's going to be this groundswell of peer pressure, so to speak, for sports leagues to take action. That's just my prediction. I hope it's wrong.

Hopefully if they play these games in closed buildings, they'll let the media in

Adam, B follows A. So don't do A.

Bill Nye has a nice podcast called "Science Rules." But I would add, "only if we let it."

So let's start letting it.

Jim Hyla
Adam, B follows A. So don't do A.

Bill Nye has a nice podcast called "Science Rules." But I would add, "only if we let it."

So let's start letting it.

Well, I have nothing to do with B, Jim ... So what I say or don't about A is irrelevant. My point was that - regardless of the numbers - sports leagues are going to be shutting things down. We've seen it already, and there's only a couple hundred cases. Events canceled. Gyms closed to the public. Johns Hopkins closed to the public over 3 cases.

osorojo
It's not hard to imagine lawsuits arising from people who attended a sporting event and within 14 days tested positive for coronavirus. BIG $!Sports venues are certain to be considering this fact while they decide whether or not to open to the public.

It's like people have never heard of assumption of risk, or something.

toddlose

Jim Hyla

billhoward

upprdeck
what would the flu numbers be if we tested for it?

Flu as in influenza? 8% afflicted (normal year), 0.1% die - 1 of 1000

COVID-19, we know the numerator (deaths) but not denominator (cases), 2% die - 20 of 1000 - but maybe it's 3.4%. The deaths by decade of age are around 1% for people through their forties at least, when the overall mortality rate as said to be 2%, then starts upward in your sixties. It's ~14% for people in the their seventies which means the last full Democratic debate, they should have had spray shields between Sanders, Biden and Warren. Those numbers are what I've found. Most of the deaths of the alte kakers, people had something else going on like asthma, emphysema, heart disease.

I was about to say both the president and vice president are in their 70s as well but, no, the VP is just 60 and must be using silver highlighting because it's all one color for him.

Bill, when you say we know the numerator (deaths), but not denominator (cases), why do you then say that the 2% mortality maybe 3.4%?

We don't know the denominator because only really sick people are tested. That means if we did wider testing the denominator would expand, but not the numerator.

So the death rate would go down, not up.

[www.vox.com]

It’s probably a lot lower.

from the vox article
In South Korea, for example, where they are testing thousands of people every day, they’ve picked up more than 6,088 people with the virus. Among those, 35 have died. That’s a case fatality rate, for the moment, of around 0.5 percent.

Isn't this the most hopeful part of the above linked article? I think that unless we see a large increase in Korean cases that the ultimate rate will be less than 1%. Am I missing something?

adamw
Granted my numbers about being in the millions by end of March may be considered hysteria - but I am not personally hysterical

I would go to LP and the NCAAs with no real concern, personally, and I'm 49. But I do believe we will continue to see over-reactions by sports leagues and other places of large gatherings - because everyone is afraid that, if they don't do something, they'll get blasted for being clueless or insensitive. So there's going to be this groundswell of peer pressure, so to speak, for sports leagues to take action. That's just my prediction. I hope it's wrong.

Hopefully if they play these games in closed buildings, they'll let the media in

If I don't get in:



Do you need an assistant for the tourney, Adam?

redice
If I don't get in:



Do you need an assistant for the tourney, Adam?

hmmm - maybe

BTW - I'm still not ready to concede that the 1 million number is certainly wrong, either ... cases in Westchester, where this started in NY, jumped from 12 to 80 just in a few days.

Here's Cuomo today...

“What happened in the Westchester County was, the person who was positive was in a very large gathering. An infected person in a large gathering can infect many people quickly. We want to avoid large gatherings.”

That doesn't bode well for sporting events.

adamw

redice
If I don't get in:



Do you need an assistant for the tourney, Adam?

hmmm - maybe

BTW - I'm still not ready to concede that the 1 million number is certainly wrong, either ... cases in Westchester, where this started in NY, jumped from 12 to 80 just in a few days.

Here's Cuomo today...

“What happened in the Westchester County was, the person who was positive was in a very large gathering. An infected person in a large gathering can infect many people quickly. We want to avoid large gatherings.”

That doesn't bode well for sporting events.

Speaking of assholes....

RPI just closed its doors to fans for this weekend ... I expect Cornell/Clarkson will do the same eventually.

[www.collegehockeynews.com]

adamw

Jim Hyla
Adam, B follows A. So don't do A.

Bill Nye has a nice podcast called "Science Rules." But I would add, "only if we let it."

So let's start letting it.

Well, I have nothing to do with B, Jim ... So what I say or don't about A is irrelevant. My point was that - regardless of the numbers - sports leagues are going to be shutting things down. We've seen it already, and there's only a couple hundred cases. Events canceled. Gyms closed to the public. Johns Hopkins closed to the public over 3 cases.

You in particular, no, you don't control B. However the combined hysteria about this could easily lead to an unnecessary B and I would have liked to think that you didn't contrbute to that hysteria.

Then in another post you say:

BTW - I'm still not ready to concede that the 1 million number is certainly wrong, either

Now that's what I mean by contributing to hysteria. Damn, as of 3/7 there were 80k cases in China and you're talking about 1 million. There is just no scientific reason to be saying that, AT THIS TIME. Could it happen, sure and I could get hit by lightning. But it's not raining, so although there is heat lightning and you can have lightning in snowstorms, it's not something that I'm going to worry about, right now.

I thought you were a man of math and statistics. Well the statistics say that there aren't 1 million cases worldwide yet. So let's not promote that we could have a million here until we have some data to support the claim.

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on the FF being played with no fans, only you in the press will get to enjoy it. But I'd also bet that it won't be that way because of stats, but due to hysteria. I just wish that intelligent people wouldn't add to that hysteria, or it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

And that's too bad for the rest of us.

Jim Hyla
I thought you were a man of math and statistics. Well the statistics say that there aren't 1 million cases worldwide yet. So let's not promote that we could have a million here until we have some data to support the claim.

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on the FF being played with no fans, only you in the press will get to enjoy it. But I'd also bet that it won't be that way because of stats, but due to hysteria. I just wish that intelligent people wouldn't add to that hysteria, or it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

And that's too bad for the rest of us.

The mistake you are making Jim is thinking that I am hysterical about that number. I am not hysterical whatsoever. I am saying it matter of factly. Even if it hit 1 million, I'd have no problem going to any of these events myself. Me saying that is based upon numerous articles - from scientists, based on math - that suggest that number will be easily hit. I'll go dig them up for you.

adamw
Granted my numbers about being in the millions by end of March may be considered hysteria - but I am not personally hysterical

I would go to LP and the NCAAs with no real concern, personally, and I'm 49. But I do believe we will continue to see over-reactions by sports leagues and other places of large gatherings - because everyone is afraid that, if they don't do something, they'll get blasted for being clueless or insensitive. So there's going to be this groundswell of peer pressure, so to speak, for sports leagues to take action. That's just my prediction. I hope it's wrong.

Hopefully if they play these games in closed buildings, they'll let the media in

The media will be in because there'll be video. And radio. Each team will have a school photographer. And once they're in, how to you keep out other media? The ECAC will lawyer up and want other media to sign waivers.

redice

adamw

redice
If I don't get in:



Do you need an assistant for the tourney, Adam?

hmmm - maybe

BTW - I'm still not ready to concede that the 1 million number is certainly wrong, either ... cases in Westchester, where this started in NY, jumped from 12 to 80 just in a few days.

Here's Cuomo today...

“What happened in the Westchester County was, the person who was positive was in a very large gathering. An infected person in a large gathering can infect many people quickly. We want to avoid large gatherings.”

That doesn't bode well for sporting events.

Speaking of assholes....

Can I give +1000? (In regards to the asshole comment)

Good point: Rural areas without enough docs, and ventilators, higher fatality rate. I was hung up on how the fatality rate moves up for people over 60 especially if you underlying problems.

Hard to believe from seeing that all-silver hair, but Mike Pence is only 60, so if the unforeseen happens to the boss ...

and Klobuchar should stick close by the phone, too.

Don't shake hands, don't kiss babies, don't kiss babes, don't massage shoulders.

Meanwhile, I want the ECAC to Not Panic. I want to see the games in person.

adamw
RPI just closed its doors to fans for this weekend ... I expect Cornell/Clarkson will do the same eventually.

[www.collegehockeynews.com]

If you watch on video, how would you know if Harvard closed its doors. The tipoff would be there's nobody there, and that could be a typical Harvard game in the healthiest of times.

Good stuff. A place such as Switzerland with good medical for everybody, I could see a low fatlity percentage, but it's a small sample size. We don't know how many cases there really are in each country.

If there are fatalities on the cruise ships we don't let dock at US ports, does it go on somebody else's tally?

I've made this point on another non-hockey board, but let me make it here.

1) Don't forget that China has major problems with pollution (and Wuhan has historically been one of the worst places). Also a high percentage of the male population smokes. How do those impact the mortality of a respiratory virus in China relative to the rest of the world?

2) China's first reaction to the virus was to cover it up. That certainly facilitated the spread, but how did that lack of treatment in the early phases impact the fatality rate?

3) They're pretty sure this started in the exotic wet market in Wuhan. What is the demographic that frequents that type of market? My gut instinct is older and poorer relative to the general population. If that is so, then the first exposures. i.e. the ones that received the least medical attention, would also skew older and poorer.

Clearly there's not enough data to tell if this creates a difference in mortality between China and other places, although the data from Korea suggest there is certainly the possibility of it.

adamw
RPI just closed its doors to fans for this weekend ... I expect Cornell/Clarkson will do the same eventually.

[www.collegehockeynews.com]

I'm not sure how I feel about the following, but would be interested in others' thoughts.

I wonder if the ECAC would consider moving the game to Harvard. Yes, RPI earned the right to host the game, but if they aren't going to allow fans, are they really hosting? Were I an RPI fan, I'd prefer the option of driving to Cambridge and being able to watch the game in a college hockey environment as opposed to having the game played in an empty arena at RPI.

Edit: RPI could still have the "last change" advantage.

andyw2100

adamw
RPI just closed its doors to fans for this weekend ... I expect Cornell/Clarkson will do the same eventually.

[www.collegehockeynews.com]

I'm not sure how I feel about the following, but would be interested in others' thoughts.

I wonder if the ECAC would consider moving the game to Harvard. Yes, RPI earned the right to host the game, but if they aren't going to allow fans, are they really hosting? Were I an RPI fan, I'd prefer the option of driving to Cambridge and being able to watch the game in a college hockey environment as opposed to having the game played in an empty arena at RPI.

Edit: RPI could still have the "last change" advantage.

Why give Sucks a fan advantage? Hold it at a neutral site. Thompson isn't being used, nor is the Whale.

If you tried to find toilet paper at Costco, you'd suspect pandemic. Costco replaced ~30 feet of toilet paper pallet area with another 30 feet of Bounty paper towels. Meanwhile, who needs TP? Costco is selling a basic Toto Washlet for $300. Their top line model with e-water is up near $1000.

How busy can Albany's Civic Center be? Or Messa?

billhoward
How busy can Albany's Civic Center be? Or Messa?

They stopped the crowd from coming because of Cuomo's recommendation for events in New York. The key is getting out of New York State.

Jeff Hopkins '82
I've made this point on another non-hockey board, but let me make it here.

1) Don't forget that China has major problems with pollution (and Wuhan has historically been one of the worst places). Also a high percentage of the male population smokes. How do those impact the mortality of a respiratory virus in China relative to the rest of the world?

2) China's first reaction to the virus was to cover it up. That certainly facilitated the spread, but how did that lack of treatment in the early phases impact the fatality rate?

3) They're pretty sure this started in the exotic wet market in Wuhan. What is the demographic that frequents that type of market? My gut instinct is older and poorer relative to the general population. If that is so, then the first exposures. i.e. the ones that received the least medical attention, would also skew older and poorer.

Clearly there's not enough data to tell if this creates a difference in mortality between China and other places, although the data from Korea suggest there is certainly the possibility of it.

Data suggests those who die are older and have underlying health issues. Trying to recall if researchers say poor health increases the fatality rate among young age groups. That seems likely. China's health care facilities may not be as good as in other developed countries.

Albany Times-Union Center hosts both NCAA basketball then hockey regionals last 2 weeks of March. At least, slated to host.

billhoward

Jeff Hopkins '82
I've made this point on another non-hockey board, but let me make it here.

1) Don't forget that China has major problems with pollution (and Wuhan has historically been one of the worst places). Also a high percentage of the male population smokes. How do those impact the mortality of a respiratory virus in China relative to the rest of the world?

2) China's first reaction to the virus was to cover it up. That certainly facilitated the spread, but how did that lack of treatment in the early phases impact the fatality rate?

3) They're pretty sure this started in the exotic wet market in Wuhan. What is the demographic that frequents that type of market? My gut instinct is older and poorer relative to the general population. If that is so, then the first exposures. i.e. the ones that received the least medical attention, would also skew older and poorer.

Clearly there's not enough data to tell if this creates a difference in mortality between China and other places, although the data from Korea suggest there is certainly the possibility of it.

Data suggests those who die are older and have underlying health issues. Trying to recall if researchers say poor health increases the fatality rate among young age groups. That seems likely. China's health care facilities may not be as good as in other developed countries.

Speaking from personal experience, they are not.

Jeff Hopkins '82

andyw2100

adamw
RPI just closed its doors to fans for this weekend ... I expect Cornell/Clarkson will do the same eventually.

[www.collegehockeynews.com]

I'm not sure how I feel about the following, but would be interested in others' thoughts.

I wonder if the ECAC would consider moving the game to Harvard. Yes, RPI earned the right to host the game, but if they aren't going to allow fans, are they really hosting? Were I an RPI fan, I'd prefer the option of driving to Cambridge and being able to watch the game in a college hockey environment as opposed to having the game played in an empty arena at RPI.

Edit: RPI could still have the "last change" advantage.

Why give Sucks a fan advantage? Hold it at a neutral site. Thompson isn't being used, nor is the Whale.

If the rationale is that there are cases in Troy so let's not stick a lot of people from Troy together in a confined space, I don't see how having those Troyians (?) gather in a different venue mitigates the concern, or how you convince Yale or Dartmouth to play host to those folks.

Indian Wells cancelled. thats a pretty big deal

adamw
RPI just closed its doors to fans for this weekend ... I expect Cornell/Clarkson will do the same eventually.

[www.collegehockeynews.com]

This is the Troy Record's take on the closed quarterfinals. It has AD comments which is more than the simple questioning of Coach Dave Smith as reported in the Times Union.

Here is the Schenectady Gazette's article.

JasonN95

Jeff Hopkins '82

andyw2100

adamw
RPI just closed its doors to fans for this weekend ... I expect Cornell/Clarkson will do the same eventually.

[www.collegehockeynews.com]

I'm not sure how I feel about the following, but would be interested in others' thoughts.

I wonder if the ECAC would consider moving the game to Harvard. Yes, RPI earned the right to host the game, but if they aren't going to allow fans, are they really hosting? Were I an RPI fan, I'd prefer the option of driving to Cambridge and being able to watch the game in a college hockey environment as opposed to having the game played in an empty arena at RPI.

Edit: RPI could still have the "last change" advantage.

Why give Sucks a fan advantage? Hold it at a neutral site. Thompson isn't being used, nor is the Whale.

If the rationale is that there are cases in Troy so let's not stick a lot of people from Troy together in a confined space, I don't see how having those Troyians (?) gather in a different venue mitigates the concern, or how you convince Yale or Dartmouth to play host to those folks.

Agreed. But then if the goal is to keep "Trojans" from infecting other cities, why would you allow them to go to Boston/Allston?

Now it's time to be logical: The NY outbreak is primarily among the Orthodox Jewish community in Westchester and Rockland Counties. How many Orthodox Jews will be attending a hockey game two hours away on Friday night or Saturday?

And is there ANY evidence that the virus has spread due to attendance at a sports venue? Not that I've seen. The majority of cases outside of China were initiated by returning tourists, first from China, then from Iran and Italy. And there's a big difference between people "trapped" on a bus or especially a cruise ship for one or two weeks versus people in an arena for three hours. Those are incubators. Is an arena?

But again, lack of data is leading to extreme reactions.

upprdeck
Indian Wells cancelled. thats a pretty big deal

For those, like me, who wondered, here:

Indian Wells Tennis Tournament Canceled Because of Coronavirus Outbreak

ugarte

French Rage

Jim Hyla

adamw
I've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

Cases are doubling partially because there are finally tests available for patients to be tested. Initially, if you couldn't be tested, you couldn't be diagnosed. Now that testing is available, cases are being found.

So that data interpretation is not valid. Yes cases are increasing, but we don't really know at what rate.

The fact the we couldn't test before is another example of our government failure. The WHO had a testing kit, but we had to try and develop a better one. And that test kit turned out to be in error, setting back the whole process.

Whether they are actual new cases, or existing ones we had not been able to test for previously, the point is that the number of known cases are still going up, and that is not going to make people feel any safer about having large crowds get together.

ah fuck John's going to make another chart I don't understand

More proof that I'm not a "real statistician" is that I have trouble getting inspired by biological applications.

Columbia is shut down i was told and will re-open with all classes held remotely or online only.

upprdeck
Columbia is shut down i was told and will re-open with all classes held remotely or online only.

Classes are suspended today and tomorrow and will go remote for the rest of the week, but the university is not "shut down."
[preparedness.columbia.edu]

I was just going by what the kids who go there told me. I heard remote classes possibly for the rest of the semester from Profs down there. Shut down in the sense of kids going to school I guess was too literal a term to use. Unless you send everyone home it wont really be shut down.

Cornell's silence on athletics events is deafening. Several thousand alumni and fans who aren't students have plans for one of Cornell's most high-profile winter/spring sports weekends ever in Ithaca:

* #1 Women's hockey NCAA tournament game Saturday 2 pm
* #2 Men's lacrosse plays former #1 Yale Saturday 1 pm
* #1 Men's hockey plays Friday and Saturday night (Sunday, too, maybe, but statistically unlikely)
* And some other sports

As of Monday, Cornell U's last update on its plans [www.cornell.edu] was last Thursday. There's nothing even saying "We recognize there's a lot of sportsing coming up and some of it's high-level sportsing and we're thinking about how to keep the campus safe and also let fans recognize and support their teams. And for those of you planning a visit, please stop by cornell.edu/bequests first."

Maddening. One challenge for Cornell (Day Hall) is that when you operate out of Ithaca, you don't need your A-game to ignore the Ithaca Journal and Daily Sun on a daily basis. It's only when something really big happens such as another incident involving Greeks, suicides even if Cornell's rate is no different than other big schools (14 per 100,000 students per year across most colleges), or a challenge to admissions protocols.

Be nice to hear from Cornell. I've got my bags packed for Ithaca.

There is this from Friday's Ithaca Journal:

Ashley Biviano, IJ
Athletic events are not affected, said Jeremy Hartigan, associate director of athletics for communications, because attendance is largely Cornell-based.

Hartigan added, "It's obviously a rapidly changing landscape we’re viewing, and that answer could change in the future." [www.ithacajournal.com]

Lots of meetings but no one really knows what the best course of action is.

upprdeck
Lots of meetings but no one really knows what the best course of action is.

Put Cornell's vice-president in charge of the response.

Princeton tells students to go on spring break and then preferably stay home. Classes will be virtual instruction. Hed written by someone taught to never include the most important part of the message in the headline: "President Eisgruber Updates University on Next Steps Regarding COVID-19 to Ensure Health and Well-Being of the Entire Community"

Princeton Office of Communications
Though we recognize that a personal, “high touch” educational environment is one of Princeton’s great strengths, we also recognize that these are extraordinary times that require exceptional measures to deal with a health risk that affects us all. For that reason, we are creating, supporting, and mandating alternative ways of meeting our academic and other programmatic requirements in ways consistent with social distancing. This will include a mandatory, temporary move for all lectures, seminars, and precepts to virtual instruction starting on Monday, March 23. We encourage students to consider staying home after Spring Break. If students choose to remain home after Spring Break, we will make sure that they are able to meet their academic requirements remotely. [www.princeton.edu]

will the Ivies stick together on this. of course staying home not an option for many who dont go home

upprdeck
will the Ivies stick together on this. of course staying home not an option for many who dont go home

And the Ivies have a LOT of international students.

Princeton has already made its choice. Columbia has cancelled classes for Monday/Tuesday 3/9-10 then virtual the rest of the week, then nothing said about after that.

upprdeck
will the Ivies stick together on this. of course staying home not an option for many who dont go home

There's not yet a reason for the Ivies to form a uniform school policy.

As of right now, it's likely that CU and Dartmouth would have less current risk than more metropolitan schools.

I think the issue is what happens when kids go home for break and come back.

upprdeck
I think the issue is what happens when kids go home for break and come back.

I agree, if you go to an endemic area, you should be treated just like any other person who travels.

But that doesn't mean you have to close it to everyone.

Might be simpler, however.

Jim Hyla

upprdeck
will the Ivies stick together on this. of course staying home not an option for many who dont go home

There's not yet a reason for the Ivies to form a uniform school policy.

As of right now, it's likely that CU and Dartmouth would have less current risk than more metropolitan schools.

And the vet school doesn't treat civet cats.

Press pool report coming out of VP Pence's office last week had it as "civic cat." Memes followed quickly.

I'm chuckling at Dartmouth being low-risk given that medical resident who managed to go to a Tuck business school party after being told to self quarantine. My semi-retired physician parents (with backgrounds in public health and infectious disease) are both affiliated with Dartmouth college, med-school, and hospital and are....unimpressed by the current response.

I'm currently sitting in the airport in Hong Kong flying back to Shanghai later today and it will be interesting to see how things go (Shanghai has aggressive health screening in place for inbound flights). My fiance flew back yesterday and managed to get out of airport in 1.5 hours with no restrictions on her movement or directive to self quarantine. Meanwhile one of my colleagues who also flew back yesterday took 6 hours to clear the airport and is telling me that all Americans will be required to self-quarantine.

Since there's been a long discussion re death rates in this thread I'll throw in my parents' comments (based on many years of doing medical projects in China) which are that China struggles to offer strong ICU care, so they strongly suspect a lot of the deaths of otherwise young/healthy individuals have been a result of operator error with ventilators and various other machines used during care.

This whole thing shouldn't result in panic but is worth taking seriously, with the serious response being to really properly wash hands (20-30 seconds with good soap, top of hand, each finger, palms, and finger tips/nails), everything else is security theater though masks do at least stop one from touching one's face.

cu155
20-30 seconds with good soap

Please define "good" soap? Are you telling my Dial Gold bars are going to kill me?

Your Dial Gold bars definitely have it out for you...

I think pretty much any bar soap is fine as long as it allows you to work up a good lather as it's the mechanical action you get from the hand washing that removes the bad juju. The key is really taking the time to get both sides of the hand, each finger and especially the finger tips (it's generally the area around the nails that stays dirty when they do cleanliness trials in hospitals). In ORs they use sterile scrubbers to get under and around each nail, but you can get pretty much the same effect from little wooden scraper sticks that you can buy online.

Trotsky

cu155
20-30 seconds with good soap

Please define "good" soap? Are you telling my Dial Gold bars are going to kill me?

Actually, when I went in for a surgical procedure in June, they told me Dial antibacterial soap was sufficient for creating a sterile situation for the procedure.

Jeff Hopkins '82

Trotsky

cu155
20-30 seconds with good soap

Please define "good" soap? Are you telling my Dial Gold bars are going to kill me?

Actually, when I went in for a surgical procedure in June, they told me Dial antibacterial soap was sufficient for creating a sterile situation for the procedure.

If you want the real good stuff look for chlorhexadine gluconate. But that is overkill for this disease in my opinion. I have some in the house, I believe, that is a left over from a pre-surgical scrub and I never even considered looking for it, let alone using it.

But it is wonderful in that it not only kills most bugs but it gets into your skin (or oral tissue ) and keeps on killing for 24 hours or so IIRC.

CU155 you raise an interesting point that I've been wondering about.

We're hearing summary statistics, like the virus's death rate, estimated by WHO at 3.4%. But besides the presence of other medical conditions, if age is a predictor of the disease's mortality rate, then won't the death rate depend on an area's demographics? And, more to the point, won't it also depend on a country's healthcare system?

For example, the "Amenable Mortality Rate" measures what proportion of a country's population dies each year from preventable diseases. The U.S. ranks around 55th, just below Croatia and Estonia, and just above Montenegro and Lebanon. So someone seeking care in the U.S. faces several impediments. It's not the germ's fault; it's the system's.

Swampy
CU155 you raise an interesting point that I've been wondering about.

We're hearing summary statistics, like the virus's death rate, estimated by WHO at 3.4%. But besides the presence of other medical conditions, if age is a predictor of the disease's mortality rate, then won't the death rate depend on an area's demographics? And, more to the point, won't it also depend on a country's healthcare system?

For example, the "Amenable Mortality Rate" measures what proportion of a country's population dies each year from preventable diseases. The U.S. ranks around 55th. So someone seeking care in the U.S. faces several impediments. It's not the germ's fault; it's the system's.

Definitely depends on the area’s demographics. One of the reasons cited for cancelling the Indian Wells tennis tournament is that it is in Palm Springs - an area flush with elderly retired folks.

Swampy

We're hearing summary statistics, like the virus's death rate, estimated by WHO at 3.4%. But besides the presence of other medical conditions, if age is a predictor of the disease's mortality rate, then won't the death rate depend on an area's demographics? And, more to the point, won't it also depend on a country's healthcare system?

For example, the "Amenable Mortality Rate" measures what proportion of a country's population dies each year from preventable diseases. The U.S. ranks around 55th, just below Croatia and Estonia, and just above Montenegro and Lebanon. So someone seeking care in the U.S. faces several impediments. It's not the germ's fault; it's the system's.

It most certainly does, and the one thing we're seeing in this country is that the healthcare system and the government are woefully unprepared for this. Sadly we're going to find out how unprepared as time goes by.

Jeff Hopkins '82

Swampy

We're hearing summary statistics, like the virus's death rate, estimated by WHO at 3.4%. But besides the presence of other medical conditions, if age is a predictor of the disease's mortality rate, then won't the death rate depend on an area's demographics? And, more to the point, won't it also depend on a country's healthcare system?

For example, the "Amenable Mortality Rate" measures what proportion of a country's population dies each year from preventable diseases. The U.S. ranks around 55th, just below Croatia and Estonia, and just above Montenegro and Lebanon. So someone seeking care in the U.S. faces several impediments. It's not the germ's fault; it's the system's.

It most certainly does, and the one thing we're seeing in this country is that the healthcare system and the government are woefully unprepared for this. Sadly we're going to find out how unprepared as time goes by.

I don't know that the healthcare system is unprepared, most of the issues seem to be related to the feds.

At least in Syracuse the system seems ready, but they don't have enough tests to check anyone who is ill. They still have to do the screening process, which is silly. If you want to get good stats, reassure the populace and isolate early cases, you need to test people who are sick and worried.

2 years ago I had a fever and body aches, felt terrible. Wondering if it was the flu, I got tested. It was negative and as soon as my fever was gone and I felt up to it, I went back to work. If I had the flu, I probably would have stayed out a couple of days more.

Early detection is important in infectious diseases.

Jim Hyla

Jeff Hopkins '82

Swampy

We're hearing summary statistics, like the virus's death rate, estimated by WHO at 3.4%. But besides the presence of other medical conditions, if age is a predictor of the disease's mortality rate, then won't the death rate depend on an area's demographics? And, more to the point, won't it also depend on a country's healthcare system?

For example, the "Amenable Mortality Rate" measures what proportion of a country's population dies each year from preventable diseases. The U.S. ranks around 55th, just below Croatia and Estonia, and just above Montenegro and Lebanon. So someone seeking care in the U.S. faces several impediments. It's not the germ's fault; it's the system's.

It most certainly does, and the one thing we're seeing in this country is that the healthcare system and the government are woefully unprepared for this. Sadly we're going to find out how unprepared as time goes by.

I don't know that the healthcare system is unprepared, most of the issues seem to be related to the feds.

At least in Syracuse the system seems ready, but they don't have enough tests to check anyone who is ill. They still have to do the screening process, which is silly. If you want to get good stats, reassure the populace and isolate early cases, you need to test people who are sick and worried.

2 years ago I had a fever and body aches, felt terrible. Wondering if it was the flu, I got tested. It was negative and as soon as my fever was gone and I felt up to it, I went back to work. If I had the flu, I probably would have stayed out a couple of days more.

Early detection is important in infectious diseases.

I'll yield to your expertise, Jim, but I do think given the number of required hospitalizations required with this virus, the number of beds available could be overwhelmed, especially on a local basis. Certainly, that's what they've seen in other countries.

I also think the financial costs to individuals will be devastating and could in fact inhibit people from getting tested or treated. Yet another flaw of our capitalism-based health system.

The issue with the lack of testing is a real problem. I read somewhere (BBC?) that the number of people tested in the UK is 5-10 times that of people tested in the US, and the UK has far fewer cases at the moment, never mind a much smaller population.

+1

Jeff Hopkins '82

Jim Hyla

Jeff Hopkins '82

Swampy

We're hearing summary statistics, like the virus's death rate, estimated by WHO at 3.4%. But besides the presence of other medical conditions, if age is a predictor of the disease's mortality rate, then won't the death rate depend on an area's demographics? And, more to the point, won't it also depend on a country's healthcare system?

For example, the "Amenable Mortality Rate" measures what proportion of a country's population dies each year from preventable diseases. The U.S. ranks around 55th, just below Croatia and Estonia, and just above Montenegro and Lebanon. So someone seeking care in the U.S. faces several impediments. It's not the germ's fault; it's the system's.

It most certainly does, and the one thing we're seeing in this country is that the healthcare system and the government are woefully unprepared for this. Sadly we're going to find out how unprepared as time goes by.

I don't know that the healthcare system is unprepared, most of the issues seem to be related to the feds.

At least in Syracuse the system seems ready, but they don't have enough tests to check anyone who is ill. They still have to do the screening process, which is silly. If you want to get good stats, reassure the populace and isolate early cases, you need to test people who are sick and worried.

2 years ago I had a fever and body aches, felt terrible. Wondering if it was the flu, I got tested. It was negative and as soon as my fever was gone and I felt up to it, I went back to work. If I had the flu, I probably would have stayed out a couple of days more.

Early detection is important in infectious diseases.

I'll yield to your expertise, Jim, but I do think given the number of required hospitalizations required with this virus, the number of beds available could be overwhelmed, especially on a local basis. Certainly, that's what they've seen in other countries.

I also think the financial costs to individuals will be devastating and could in fact inhibit people from getting tested or treated. Yet another flaw of our capitalism-based health system.

The issue with the lack of testing is a real problem. I read somewhere (BBC?) that the number of people tested in the UK is 5-10 times that of people tested in the US, and the UK has far fewer cases at the moment, never mind a much smaller population.

I totally agree with what you're saying including the issue of overwhelming the hospitals ability to treat. But some of that goes to our inability to test and find early cases. Doing that would minimize the number of cases and thus the number of hospital admissions.

Meaning we didn't have the ability to attack this aggressively very early on. If we had, we could have been better able to control it sooner.

Also the feds should make testing free, including for uninsured. When asked about that at the press conference yesterday, they (Pence, et. al.) just walked out of the room.

That's the problem, and why our costs just keep on rising.

The Ivy League basketball tournaments (men's and women's) have been canceled.

[ivyleague.com]

Effective immediately, the League is also implementing highly-restrictive, in-venue spectator limitations for all other upcoming campus athletics events. The League is also canceling all out-of-season practices and competitions.

And, here's the bad news:

[cornellbigredtickets.universitytickets.com]

Wow that stinks. Why ban lacrosse? Not exactly packed into Schoelkopf like sardines.

They're claiming it's League policy.
Either way it stinks, was looking forward to Lax on Saturday.

Buuuuuul-shit!

Lynah Closed for Playoffs

The Rancor
Buuuuuul-shit!

Lynah Closed for Playoffs

Assholes!!!!!

Just my opinion, but all of this is stupid. We have no cases for a couple hundred miles.

But yes there might be someone who travels from a virus area. The likely risk of that is very small.

And why is this an Ivy League policy? Shouldn't each school decide? Or since these are ECAC games, shouldn't they decide.

Now if Q decides it's okay, how can Yale go there and play in front of fans? Shouldn't they be restricted by Ivy policy?

I suspect this is risk adverse worry. No one wants to take the tiny chance that someone will get sick. Heavens, they'd probably sue the school and both leagues.

In case someone needs newspapers and/or Snickers, let me know. I suddenly have an overabundance of both.