2019 ECAC Permutations

Possible ECAC tournament seedings (the number in parentheses is the best
seed the team can get with no help):


Cornell        1-5    (1)
Quinnipiac     1-5    (2)
Harvard        1-5    (3)
Clarkson       1-5    (4)
Yale           2-7    (5)
Brown          5-9    (6)
Dartmouth      4-8    (7)
Union          6-11   (8)
Colgate        7-11   (9)
Rennselaer     7-11   (10)
Princeton      9-11   (11)
St. Lawrence   12     (12)

Once again, it's time for the ECAC Playoff Permutations!  St. Lawrence has,
well, wrapped up last place, but there is plenty of jockeying left for the
other positions, as first through fourth are currently separated by two
points, fifth through seventh by two points, and eighth through eleventh by
four.

Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where
each team in the ECAC could finish.  As always, I'm greatly indebted to
John Whelan's excellent playoff possibilities script at [www.elynah.com] 


For each ECAC team, I've listed the following:

THIS WEEKEND:  The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN:  The highest the team could finish with no help from the
      competition.  Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE:  The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE:  The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
      This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
      standings win.
TIEBREAKERS:  How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
      some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
      standings.  Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
      lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
      more than just those two teams tied.  For instance, Dartmouth wins the
      head-to-head tiebreaker against Yale with a 2-0 record; however, in a
      three-way tie involving these two and Brown, Dartmouth would actually
      be seeded lower than Yale.  If a listed tiebreaker result depends on
      more than just those two teams being tied, it is marked with an
      asterisk:

           Dartmouth could win or lose* against Yale

For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:

1.   Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
     tournaments, do not count).
2.   League wins.
3.   Record against the top four teams in the conference.
4.   Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
5.   Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
6.   Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
7.   Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.

Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are
used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the
"pack".  Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the remaining
ties.  For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way tie, once
one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure goes back to
the first step with the three remaining tied teams.


Without further ado, here's how the final weekend looks:

Cornell:
      THIS WEEKEND:  At St. Lawrence, at Clarkson.
      ON THEIR OWN:  The Big Red takes first place with a sweep.
      BEST CASE:  First.
      WORST CASE:  Falls to fifth with two losses if Quinnipiac does not get
      swept, Harvard gets at least two points, and Yale wins twice.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Harvard; loses to Quinnipiac; could win or lose
      against Clarkson; could win* or lose against Yale.

Qunnipiac:
      THIS WEEKEND:  At Brown, at Yale.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Two wins will lock up second place.
      BEST CASE:  Takes first with a sweep if Cornell does not win twice.
      WORST CASE:  Would finish fifth if they get swept, Harvard does not
      lose twice, Clarkson gets at least two points, and Yale also beats
      Princeton.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Cornell; could win or lose against Harvard,
      Clarkson, and Yale.

Harvard:
      THIS WEEKEND:  At Rensselaer, at Union.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches third with a pair of wins.
      BEST CASE:  Climbs to first with a sweep if Quinnipiac does not win
      twice and Cornell gets no more than two points.
      WORST CASE:  Ends up in fifth place if they get swept, Clarkson gets
      at least two points, and Yale sweeps.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Yale; loses to Cornell; could win or lose against
      Quinnipiac and Clarkson.

Clarkson:
      THIS WEEKEND:  Colgate, Cornell.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Three points will give the Golden Knights fourth place.
      BEST CASE:  Wraps up first with a sweep if neither Quinnipiac nor
      Harvard gets more than two points.
      WORST CASE:  Drops to fifth with two losses if Yale gets at least
      three points.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Brown; could win or lose against Cornell,
      Quinnipiac, Harvard, and Yale; could win or lose* against Dartmouth.

Yale:
      THIS WEEKEND:  Princeton, Quinnipiac.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Gets fifth with three points.
      BEST CASE:  Finishes second with a pair of wins if Cornell, Quinni-
      piac, and Harvard all get swept.
      WORST CASE:  Would slide to seventh if they lose twice, Brown gets at
      least three points, and Dartmouth gets at least two points.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Brown; loses to Harvard; could win or lose against
      Quinnipiac and Clarkson; could win or lose* against Cornell; could win*
      or lose against Dartmouth.

Brown:
      THIS WEEKEND:  Quinnipiac, Princeton.
      ON THEIR OWN:  A sweep guarantees sixth place.
      BEST CASE:  Rises to fifth with two wins if Yale gets no more than one
      point.
      WORST CASE:  Would finish ninth with two losses if Union and Colgate
      both sweep and Dartmouth does not lose to Rensselaer.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Dartmouth and Union; loses to Clarkson and Yale;
      could win* or lose against Colgate.

Dartmouth:
      THIS WEEKEND:  At Union, at Rensselaer.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches seventh by not losing to Union or by beating
      Rensselaer.
      BEST CASE:  Would climb to fourth with a sweep if Clarkson loses twice,
      Yale gets two points, and Brown does not win twice.  This would set up a
      three-way tie for fourth among Dartmouth, Clarkson, and Yale, with the
      tiebreakers giving Dartmouth fourth place.
      WORST CASE:  Falls to eighth with two losses if Union does not lose to
      Harvard.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Colgate; loses to Brown and Union; could win or
      lose* against Yale; could win* or lose against Clarkson.

Union:
      THIS WEEKEND:  Dartmouth, Harvard.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Wraps up eighth with three points.
      BEST CASE:  Will finish sixth with two wins if Brown loses twice and
      Dartmouth does not beat Rensselaer.
      WORST CASE:  Slides to eleventh place if (you might want to sit down
      for this one) they lose twice, with the two losses coming by a total
      of six goals or more, Princeton wins twice, Clarkson gets swept, Yale
      beats Quinnipiac, Dartmouth also beats Rensselaer, and Rensselaer beats
      Harvard.  And yes, this one could go all the way down to goal differ-
      entail against the top 8. 
      TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Dartmouth and Colgate; loses to Brown and
      Rensselaer; could win or lose against Princeton.

Colgate:
      THIS WEEKEND:  At Clarkson, at St. Lawrence.
      ON THEIR OWN:  A sweep locks up ninth place.
      BEST CASE:  Gets seventh with a pair of wins if Brown loses twice,
      Dartmouth gets at least one point, and Union gets no more than two
      points.
      WORST CASE:  Would fall to eleventh if they get swept, Princeton wins
      twice, and Rensselaer gets at least two points.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Princeton; loses to Dartmouth and Union; could win
      or lose against Rensselaer; could win or lose* against Brown.

Rensselaer:
      THIS WEEKEND:  Harvard, Dartmouth.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Three points will wrap up tenth.
      BEST CASE:  Finishes seventh with a sweep if Colgate does not win
      twice and Union gets no more than two points.
      WORST CASE:  Ends up in eleventh with two losses if Princeton gets at
      least one win.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Union; could win or lose against Colgate and
      Princeton.

Princeton:
      THIS WEEKEND:  At Yale, at Brown.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Has already clinched eleventh and can do no better
      without help.
      BEST CASE:  Climbs to ninth with a sweep if Colgate loses twice and
      Rensselaer gets no more than one point.
      WORST CASE:  Eleventh.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Colgate; could win or lose against Union and
      Rensselaer.