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Bracketology Starts

Posted by Jim Hyla 
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Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: French Rage (38.99.127.---)
Date: February 28, 2018 12:57PM

Chris '03
toddlose
Beeeej
Jim Hyla
Bracketology: This week’s movement shows Penn State in, Omaha out

I'd suspect quite the crowd for Allentown.

Oh, great, now there's two regional hosts who might get de facto home games against unlucky much higher seeds.

This is such a fucked-up system!!

I have a feeling our attendance would be significantly higher than psu. I would take it.

I have the opposite feeling. It'd probably be a fun atmosphere. But just win, baby.

I dunno, Penn State's pretty good at looking the other way when something important is happening right in their backyard.

 
___________________________
03/23/02: Maine 4, Harvard 3
03/28/03: BU 6, Harvard 4
03/26/04: Maine 5, Harvard 4
03/26/05: UNH 3, Harvard 2
03/25/06: Maine 6, Harvard 1
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Jeff Hopkins '82 (---.37.26.69.virtela.net)
Date: February 28, 2018 03:29PM

toddlose
ugarte
toddlose
Beeeej
Jim Hyla
Bracketology: This week’s movement shows Penn State in, Omaha out

I'd suspect quite the crowd for Allentown.

Oh, great, now there's two regional hosts who might get de facto home games against unlucky much higher seeds.

This is such a fucked-up system!!

I have a feeling our attendance would be significantly higher than psu. I would take it.
you do not know penn state. they are huge and they are dedicated if the program is any good. if we play penn state at the garden again it will be MUCH harder to get tickets now that the program is more established.

I’m friends with close to a dozen psu alum. They are all football nuts. When it comes to their hockey team, I am the one keeping them informed. They are all clueless on how their hockey team is doing.

I follow Cornell hockey more than any other Cornell sport (as many here also do), but I know what other teams are doing well and, more commonly, not so well.

I'll echo that. I work with quite a few PSU alums. They know the hockey team is doing "well." But would they lay out money to follow them? Not so much. the ones that might are already hockey fans (Flyers, Phantoms) and might go because they already like hockey. Which is also true for some of the non-PSU Phantoms fans I know.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: dbilmes (32.218.127.---)
Date: February 28, 2018 03:35PM

toddlose
Random question (as I was not there that year):

How was the penn state turn out for the msg game vs Cornell a few years ago? In regards to percentage of crowd.
The Penn State crowd was not big. The breakdown was approximately 70-30 for Cornell.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: LGR14 (65.220.45.---)
Date: February 28, 2018 06:29PM

PSU sells every single one of its games. I'm not sure why all of you think that they won't attend an NCAA regional being hosted on their own campus. The MSG game was on the same day as the biggest football game of the year. Football season is over.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Trotsky (---.dc.dc.cox.net)
Date: February 28, 2018 06:32PM

LGR14
PSU sells every single one of its games. I'm not sure why all of you think that they won't attend an NCAA regional being hosted on their own campus.
Allentown is 175 miles from State College. The same distance as Ithaca.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: LGR14 (65.220.45.---)
Date: February 28, 2018 06:37PM

Trotsky
LGR14
PSU sells every single one of its games. I'm not sure why all of you think that they won't attend an NCAA regional being hosted on their own campus.
Allentown is 175 miles from State College. The same distance as Ithaca.

Ah I have been overlooking the "Allentown" part this whole time. I join the calls that it is inane to call PSU (or any team) the "host."
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Robb (---.northgrum.com)
Date: February 28, 2018 06:47PM

LGR14
Trotsky
LGR14
PSU sells every single one of its games. I'm not sure why all of you think that they won't attend an NCAA regional being hosted on their own campus.
Allentown is 175 miles from State College. The same distance as Ithaca.

Ah I have been overlooking the "Allentown" part this whole time. I join the calls that it is inane to call PSU (or any team) the "host."
It's not that they are "called" the host - they ARE the host. As in, their athletics department stepped up to run the actual event, including collecting ticket and concession money from the fans and providing a (guaranteed) payout to the NCAA.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Dafatone (---.sub-174-217-10.myvzw.com)
Date: February 28, 2018 06:55PM

LGR14
Trotsky
LGR14
PSU sells every single one of its games. I'm not sure why all of you think that they won't attend an NCAA regional being hosted on their own campus.
Allentown is 175 miles from State College. The same distance as Ithaca.

Ah I have been overlooking the "Allentown" part this whole time. I join the calls that it is inane to call PSU (or any team) the "host."

175 miles? Sioux Falls is 320 miles from NoDak.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.sub-70-209-140.myvzw.com)
Date: February 28, 2018 07:01PM

adamw
Oh yeah - this is the area where I usually give Jim grief, not the polls :) .... I just cannot stand - for decades at this point - the idea of posting "bracketology" articles based on "what it would be if the season ended today" - because ...... it doesn't end today. I don't see the point in the exercise.

The point is I sit down waiting for dinner, open my phone to a 3 page discussion. Need I say more?

 
___________________________
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: RichH (---.mycingular.net)
Date: February 28, 2018 07:52PM

Jim Hyla
adamw
Oh yeah - this is the area where I usually give Jim grief, not the polls :) .... I just cannot stand - for decades at this point - the idea of posting "bracketology" articles based on "what it would be if the season ended today" - because ...... it doesn't end today. I don't see the point in the exercise.

The point is I sit down waiting for dinner, open my phone to a 3 page discussion. Need I say more?

The point is there are too many days in between games that we need to find things to obsess about.

Please eliminate Tuesdays.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/28/2018 07:52PM by RichH.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: February 28, 2018 07:58PM

Dafatone
LGR14
Trotsky
LGR14
PSU sells every single one of its games. I'm not sure why all of you think that they won't attend an NCAA regional being hosted on their own campus.
Allentown is 175 miles from State College. The same distance as Ithaca.

Ah I have been overlooking the "Allentown" part this whole time. I join the calls that it is inane to call PSU (or any team) the "host."

175 miles? Sioux Falls is 320 miles from NoDak.
Those are western miles. In the west you drive ten miles to your mailbox.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: February 28, 2018 07:58PM

RichH
Jim Hyla
adamw
Oh yeah - this is the area where I usually give Jim grief, not the polls :) .... I just cannot stand - for decades at this point - the idea of posting "bracketology" articles based on "what it would be if the season ended today" - because ...... it doesn't end today. I don't see the point in the exercise.

The point is I sit down waiting for dinner, open my phone to a 3 page discussion. Need I say more?

The point is there are too many days in between games that we need to find things to obsess about.

Please eliminate Tuesdays.
If we'd finished 5th we would have a game in 2 nights...
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Dafatone (---.sub-174-217-10.myvzw.com)
Date: February 28, 2018 08:27PM

Trotsky
Dafatone
LGR14
Trotsky
LGR14
PSU sells every single one of its games. I'm not sure why all of you think that they won't attend an NCAA regional being hosted on their own campus.
Allentown is 175 miles from State College. The same distance as Ithaca.

Ah I have been overlooking the "Allentown" part this whole time. I join the calls that it is inane to call PSU (or any team) the "host."

175 miles? Sioux Falls is 320 miles from NoDak.
Those are western miles. In the west you drive ten miles to your mailbox.

This is true. I'm currently commuting 63 miles each way, three days a week.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: adamw (---.phlapa.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 01, 2018 11:15AM

Dafatone
175 miles? Sioux Falls is 320 miles from NoDak.

As has been proven time and again, North Dakota fans would travel 10,000 people to Jupiter to see their team play.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Dafatone (---.sub-174-217-10.myvzw.com)
Date: March 01, 2018 11:21AM

adamw
Dafatone
175 miles? Sioux Falls is 320 miles from NoDak.

As has been proven time and again, North Dakota fans would travel 10,000 people to Jupiter to see their team play.

Sure. I just hate them.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Trotsky (---.dc.dc.cox.net)
Date: March 01, 2018 12:40PM

Dafatone
adamw
Dafatone
175 miles? Sioux Falls is 320 miles from NoDak.

As has been proven time and again, North Dakota fans would travel 10,000 people to Jupiter to see their team play.

Sure. I just hate them.
Plenty of fan bases out there to really hate (Minny, BC, Maine, Michigan). NoDak always seems to me to be just really into their team and really know the sport well. Like Wisco fans. I mean, plus the whole Nazi thing.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Beeeej (Moderator)
Date: March 01, 2018 12:46PM

Trotsky
Dafatone
adamw
Dafatone
175 miles? Sioux Falls is 320 miles from NoDak.

As has been proven time and again, North Dakota fans would travel 10,000 people to Jupiter to see their team play.

Sure. I just hate them.
Plenty of fan bases out there to really hate (Minny, BC, Maine, Michigan). NoDak always seems to me to be just really into their team and really know the sport well. Like Wisco fans. I mean, plus the whole Nazi thing.

Several years ago when we played a two-game series out there, a bunch of Cornell fans left the arena to find that someone had poured water all over their cars in deeply sub-freezing weather.

 
___________________________
Beeeej, Esq.
Tundra British Columbia Headhunters Circus
Tucson or Bust!

"Cornell isn't an organization. It's a loose affiliation of independent fiefdoms united by a common hockey team."
- Steve Worona

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/01/2018 12:47PM by Beeeej.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Dafatone (---.sub-174-217-10.myvzw.com)
Date: March 01, 2018 01:01PM

Beeeej
Trotsky
Dafatone
adamw
Dafatone
175 miles? Sioux Falls is 320 miles from NoDak.

As has been proven time and again, North Dakota fans would travel 10,000 people to Jupiter to see their team play.

Sure. I just hate them.
Plenty of fan bases out there to really hate (Minny, BC, Maine, Michigan). NoDak always seems to me to be just really into their team and really know the sport well. Like Wisco fans. I mean, plus the whole Nazi thing.

Several years ago when we played a two-game series out there, a bunch of Cornell fans left the arena to find that someone had poured water all over their cars in deeply sub-freezing weather.

Plus the whole Nazi thing. And, living in South Dakota where there's a significant Native population, I don't like North Dakota for a bunch of mascot/symbol reasons.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: RichH (134.223.116.---)
Date: March 01, 2018 01:03PM

Beeeej
Trotsky
Dafatone
adamw
Dafatone
175 miles? Sioux Falls is 320 miles from NoDak.

As has been proven time and again, North Dakota fans would travel 10,000 people to Jupiter to see their team play.

Sure. I just hate them.
Plenty of fan bases out there to really hate (Minny, BC, Maine, Michigan). NoDak always seems to me to be just really into their team and really know the sport well. Like Wisco fans. I mean, plus the whole Nazi thing.

Several years ago when we played a two-game series out there, a bunch of Cornell fans left the arena to find that someone had poured water all over their cars in deeply sub-freezing weather.

You know those scenes in movies when the protagonists, usually modern-day city-folk walk into a Western saloon or some other "fish-out-of-water" situation and everyone in the bar stops what they're doing and follows them with their heads and usually one old guy chews really slowly? THAT'S WHAT HAPPENED TO US IN GRAND FORKS when we went to bars and restaurants with our red gear on. Eventually one brave guy came over to ask us an innocuous question and saw that we weren't assholes then it was mostly all good and we made friends with a few tentative groups who still looked at us with suspicion.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Swampy (---.163.128.131.dhcp.uri.edu)
Date: March 01, 2018 01:59PM

RichH
Beeeej
Trotsky
Dafatone
adamw
Dafatone
175 miles? Sioux Falls is 320 miles from NoDak.

As has been proven time and again, North Dakota fans would travel 10,000 people to Jupiter to see their team play.

Sure. I just hate them.
Plenty of fan bases out there to really hate (Minny, BC, Maine, Michigan). NoDak always seems to me to be just really into their team and really know the sport well. Like Wisco fans. I mean, plus the whole Nazi thing.

Several years ago when we played a two-game series out there, a bunch of Cornell fans left the arena to find that someone had poured water all over their cars in deeply sub-freezing weather.

You know those scenes in movies when the protagonists, usually modern-day city-folk walk into a Western saloon or some other "fish-out-of-water" situation and everyone in the bar stops what they're doing and follows them with their heads and usually one old guy chews really slowly? THAT'S WHAT HAPPENED TO US IN GRAND FORKS when we went to bars and restaurants with our red gear on. Eventually one brave guy came over to ask us an innocuous question and saw that we weren't assholes then it was mostly all good and we made friends with a few tentative groups who still looked at us with suspicion.

Is there anything else you want to tell me about 'em?
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: upprdeck (---.syrcny.east.verizon.net)
Date: March 03, 2018 08:32PM

one thing that has now happened. if NDakota loses tonight they might well be the 5 seed and have to travel to CC. if they lose in 2 they fall out of the PWR chances be ending under .500
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Beeeej (Moderator)
Date: March 05, 2018 09:19AM

A loss and a tie has North Dakota down to 15th in the Pairwise and hanging on to the theoretical last spot by a thread, and even that's on the outside looking in if there are any serious tourney upsets (of which BC is the likeliest). I'd just as soon NoDak be golfing when we hit regionals, so fingers crossed for this weekend.

 
___________________________
Beeeej, Esq.
Tundra British Columbia Headhunters Circus
Tucson or Bust!

"Cornell isn't an organization. It's a loose affiliation of independent fiefdoms united by a common hockey team."
- Steve Worona
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: KenP (137.75.68.---)
Date: March 05, 2018 09:33AM

[www.playoffstatus.com]

St. Cloud has basically wrapped up the #1 overall. Cornell is one of the next five teams vying for #2-6, with the rest of the pack looking at #7 and lower.

Interesting to see the gradual decline in our chances for a #1 seed. Still pretty good... but the odds of a #2 seed are now up to 28%.

Also interesting also that Penn State is now virtually a lock with high probability of being a #3 seed.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: BearLover (---.sub-174-203-20.myvzw.com)
Date: March 05, 2018 10:12AM

KenP
[www.playoffstatus.com]

St. Cloud has basically wrapped up the #1 overall. Cornell is one of the next five teams vying for #2-6, with the rest of the pack looking at #7 and lower.

Interesting to see the gradual decline in our chances for a #1 seed. Still pretty good... but the odds of a #2 seed are now up to 28%.

Also interesting also that Penn State is now virtually a lock with high probability of being a #3 seed.
"Oh no, here comes BearLover with another one of his rants about the prediction model." This model is helpful in that it informs us what our range of PWR outcomes is. But don't put too much faith in that 28% number. The model is overrating our chances of beating each of our opponents in the ECAC tournament.

Unfortunately, it's likely the Atlantic Hockey auto bid will be the only significantly easier matchup this year, so I'm personally focusing on Cornell hoisting the Whitelaw Cup, rather than their NCAA seeding.
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 03/05/2018 10:24AM by BearLover.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 05, 2018 10:30AM

BearLover
I'm personally focusing on Cornell hoisting the Whitelaw Cup, rather than their NCAA seeding.
I may be alone in this but I always focus on the Whitelaw.

The NC$$ is surreal to me. It's an Epilogue to the season. Obviously I WANT TO SEE THEM FUCKING WIN IT SOMEDAY!!! but it's still an out-of-body experience.

The first few times I went to the Gahden it was like that too, probably because Cornell failed to make the ECAC post-season at all until my senior year. Maybe it would change if we ran off some ungodly Michigan streak. But job one, to me, is always to win the ECAC championship. That's the entree. The NC$$ is desert.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: RichH (73.114.16.---)
Date: March 05, 2018 10:31AM

KenP
[www.playoffstatus.com]

St. Cloud has basically wrapped up the #1 overall. Cornell is one of the next five teams vying for #2-6, with the rest of the pack looking at #7 and lower.

Interesting to see the gradual decline in our chances for a #1 seed. Still pretty good... but the odds of a #2 seed are now up to 28%.

Also interesting also that Penn State is now virtually a lock with high probability of being a #3 seed.

If North Dakota reverses the trend and Worcester host Holy Cross wins the AHA tournament, then all 3 active host teams are taking up a 3-4 seed placing before the top seeds are placed. I don’t have time to look at it now, but I’m guessing that could throw more chaos in the seeding process.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 05, 2018 10:47AM

Seems to me that HC winning would be a godsend for the committee since it locks down a presumptive patsy and a site. St. Cloud gets the Bemidji 2009 Memorial Reward and goes to Worcester and the committee only has to worry about the 1/4 permutations of the other 3 sites.

It's iron clad that the committee will never cross over a tier line, right? (e.g., they would never move the #4 overall to a 2-seed to duck a North Dakota "4 seed home game." If that's set in stone I don't see a lot of chaos -- just somebody getting inevitably and deterministically well and truly fucked. I would expect that to be the 4. If Mankato sneaks into the 4 I'd practically guarantee it -- Mankato is closer to Sioux Falls than is NoDak (as is, for that matter, St. Cloud. The West is big.).
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: KenP (137.75.68.---)
Date: March 05, 2018 10:52AM

BearLover
KenP
[www.playoffstatus.com]

St. Cloud has basically wrapped up the #1 overall. Cornell is one of the next five teams vying for #2-6, with the rest of the pack looking at #7 and lower.

Interesting to see the gradual decline in our chances for a #1 seed. Still pretty good... but the odds of a #2 seed are now up to 28%.

Also interesting also that Penn State is now virtually a lock with high probability of being a #3 seed.
"Oh no, here comes BearLover with another one of his rants about the prediction model." This model is helpful in that it informs us what our range of PWR outcomes is. But don't put too much faith in that 28% number. The model is overrating our chances of beating each of our opponents in the ECAC tournament.

Unfortunately, it's likely the Atlantic Hockey auto bid will be the only significantly easier matchup this year, so I'm personally focusing on Cornell hoisting the Whitelaw Cup, rather than their NCAA seeding.
I'm not focusing on the specific percentage, rather the trend. About a month ago we were "88%" likely to be a #1 seed. Now it has fallen to "72%". That is information. Similarly I did not write that Penn State has a 75% chance of being a #3 seed, just "high probability".

In the end we all agree... just win.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: adamw (---.phlapa.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 05, 2018 10:57AM

Trotsky
Seems to me that HC winning would be a godsend for the committee since it locks down a presumptive patsy and a site. St. Cloud gets the Bemidji 2009 Memorial Reward and goes to Worcester and the committee only has to worry about the 1/4 permutations of the other 3 sites.

It's iron clad that the committee will never cross over a tier line, right? (e.g., they would never move the #4 overall to a 2-seed to duck a North Dakota "4 seed home game." If that's set in stone I don't see a lot of chaos -- just somebody getting inevitably and deterministically well and truly fucked. I would expect that to be the 4. If Mankato sneaks into the 4 I'd practically guarantee it -- Mankato is closer to Sioux Falls than is NoDak (as is, for that matter, St. Cloud. The West is big.).

That is correct - not crossing over is sacrosanct - though I've argued many times it shouldn't be, in extreme cases.

You're right that it's not chaos, in the sense that it makes things obvious about who goes where, but it is messier, for sure. Even if North Dakota doesn't make it, but Holy Cross does ... it means that instead of (relatively) nearby Sioux Falls, St. Cloud will be forced to go to Worcester. We already know St. Cloud can't go to Sioux Falls if North Dakota was there - but Holy Cross' involvement would be an extra scenario where St. Cloud can't go to Sioux Falls.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 05, 2018 11:07AM

adamw
We already know St. Cloud can't go to Sioux Falls if North Dakota was there - but Holy Cross' involvement would be an extra scenario where St. Cloud can't go to Sioux Falls.

I think we all agree that for the good of the planet North Dakota must die.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: KGR11 (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 05, 2018 02:12PM

adamw
Trotsky
Seems to me that HC winning would be a godsend for the committee since it locks down a presumptive patsy and a site. St. Cloud gets the Bemidji 2009 Memorial Reward and goes to Worcester and the committee only has to worry about the 1/4 permutations of the other 3 sites.

It's iron clad that the committee will never cross over a tier line, right? (e.g., they would never move the #4 overall to a 2-seed to duck a North Dakota "4 seed home game." If that's set in stone I don't see a lot of chaos -- just somebody getting inevitably and deterministically well and truly fucked. I would expect that to be the 4. If Mankato sneaks into the 4 I'd practically guarantee it -- Mankato is closer to Sioux Falls than is NoDak (as is, for that matter, St. Cloud. The West is big.).

That is correct - not crossing over is sacrosanct - though I've argued many times it shouldn't be, in extreme cases.

You're right that it's not chaos, in the sense that it makes things obvious about who goes where, but it is messier, for sure. Even if North Dakota doesn't make it, but Holy Cross does ... it means that instead of (relatively) nearby Sioux Falls, St. Cloud will be forced to go to Worcester. We already know St. Cloud can't go to Sioux Falls if North Dakota was there - but Holy Cross' involvement would be an extra scenario where St. Cloud can't go to Sioux Falls.

There's something screwed up with the #1 overall seed being forced to fly to the worst overall team. I'd bet St. Cloud State prefers this to playing a BC-caliber team in Sioux Falls, but I think it points to the inequity in the "hosting" framework. I can understand that host schools should be rewarded for their efforts, but I don't think every school has the geographic opportunity to host: will the Alaska schools ever host a regional? What about the schools on the Upper Peninsula?
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: upprdeck (---.fs.cornell.edu)
Date: March 05, 2018 02:41PM

any school can host, it just may not be super local.. Cornell would do it(Buff/albany/pitt?) but our Ath Dept can barely run our own venue let alone organize one someplace else.

But Holy cross is not winning their tourney

What am I missing, why would SCS fly if ND is not in it. wouldnt they just try to flip around some other #4 seed?
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 05, 2018 03:09PM

KGR11
I can understand that host schools should be rewarded for their efforts
I can't. Frankly, fuck them. You should not be able to buy your way up to a better slot.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: adamw (---.phlapa.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 05, 2018 03:15PM

upprdeck
What am I missing, why would SCS fly if ND is not in it. wouldnt they just try to flip around some other #4 seed?

Most likely not. The difference between playing Holy Cross and (e.g.) Boston College is so extreme, that the No. 1 seed would never be forced to do that, if preventable.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: scoop85 (---.nyc.biz.rr.com)
Date: March 05, 2018 03:42PM

upprdeck
any school can host, it just may not be super local.. Cornell would do it(Buff/albany/pitt?) but our Ath Dept can barely run our own venue let alone organize one someplace else.

But Holy cross is not winning their tourney

What am I missing, why would SCS fly if ND is not in it. wouldnt they just try to flip around some other #4 seed?

Were we to ever host (fat chance, I know), I think either Syracuse or Binghamton would be the possible venues. Both cities have AHL rinks that would seem suitable.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Beeeej (Moderator)
Date: March 05, 2018 03:50PM

scoop85
upprdeck
any school can host, it just may not be super local.. Cornell would do it(Buff/albany/pitt?) but our Ath Dept can barely run our own venue let alone organize one someplace else.

But Holy cross is not winning their tourney

What am I missing, why would SCS fly if ND is not in it. wouldnt they just try to flip around some other #4 seed?

Were we to ever host (fat chance, I know), I think either Syracuse or Binghamton would be the possible venues. Both cities have AHL rinks that would seem suitable.

As far as I know, there's no serious requirement for the host school to be within a specific radius of the venue. Michigan Tech hosted a 2012 regional in Green Bay, Wisconsin, over 200 miles away. By those standards, MSG would be perfect for Cornell.

 
___________________________
Beeeej, Esq.
Tundra British Columbia Headhunters Circus
Tucson or Bust!

"Cornell isn't an organization. It's a loose affiliation of independent fiefdoms united by a common hockey team."
- Steve Worona
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Swampy (---.163.128.131.dhcp.uri.edu)
Date: March 05, 2018 04:22PM

upprdeck
any school can host, it just may not be super local.. Cornell would do it(Buff/albany/pitt?) but our Ath Dept can barely run our own venue let alone organize one someplace else.

But Holy cross is not winning their tourney

What am I missing, why would SCS fly if ND is not in it. wouldnt they just try to flip around some other #4 seed?

Frequent flyer miles?
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Dafatone (---.sub-174-228-5.myvzw.com)
Date: March 05, 2018 05:48PM

BearLover
KenP
[www.playoffstatus.com]

St. Cloud has basically wrapped up the #1 overall. Cornell is one of the next five teams vying for #2-6, with the rest of the pack looking at #7 and lower.

Interesting to see the gradual decline in our chances for a #1 seed. Still pretty good... but the odds of a #2 seed are now up to 28%.

Also interesting also that Penn State is now virtually a lock with high probability of being a #3 seed.
"Oh no, here comes BearLover with another one of his rants about the prediction model." This model is helpful in that it informs us what our range of PWR outcomes is. But don't put too much faith in that 28% number. The model is overrating our chances of beating each of our opponents in the ECAC tournament.

Unfortunately, it's likely the Atlantic Hockey auto bid will be the only significantly easier matchup this year, so I'm personally focusing on Cornell hoisting the Whitelaw Cup, rather than their NCAA seeding.

At this point, I bet it's less about our odds to win and more that even if we lose two, we're not very likely to drop out of the top right.

I say, jinxing everything...
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: upprdeck (---.syrcny.east.verizon.net)
Date: March 05, 2018 06:01PM

anyone heard any more about the effort to go back on site for the first round?
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: adamw (---.phlapa.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 06, 2018 10:09AM

upprdeck
anyone heard any more about the effort to go back on site for the first round?

We write about this all the time. It's doubtful this will happen any time soon.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: upprdeck (---.fs.cornell.edu)
Date: March 06, 2018 10:43AM

Always hope, and the fact they are holding off with 2020 site announcements.I know its a long shot, just seemed after multiple stories last spring nothing has been announced either way. perhaps waiting to see attendance again this year.

“The three new options that are expected to be discussed are allowing home venues to bid on predetermined regional sites, moving the four regionals to the home venue of the No. 1 seed or turning the first weekend into eight best-of-three series on the campus of the higher seed.”
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Al DeFlorio (---.ri.ri.cox.net)
Date: March 06, 2018 11:00AM

upprdeck
Always hope, and the fact they are holding off with 2020 site announcements.I know its a long shot, just seemed after multiple stories last spring nothing has been announced either way. perhaps waiting to see attendance again this year.

“The three new options that are expected to be discussed are allowing home venues to bid on predetermined regional sites, moving the four regionals to the home venue of the No. 1 seed or turning the first weekend into eight best-of-three series on the campus of the higher seed.”
Please...no best of three.

 
___________________________
Al DeFlorio '65
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: upprdeck (---.fs.cornell.edu)
Date: March 06, 2018 11:55AM

I am all in on best of 3.. in a best world all the rounds would be best of 3. Why are you against it?
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Trotsky (---.dc.dc.cox.net)
Date: March 06, 2018 12:04PM

upprdeck
I am all in on best of 3.. in a best world all the rounds would be best of 3.
In a perfect world the 1R and QF are best of 3 at campus site. The F4 is perfect the way it already is.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/06/2018 12:05PM by Trotsky.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Trotsky (---.dc.dc.cox.net)
Date: March 06, 2018 12:07PM

upprdeck
“The three new options that are expected to be discussed are (1) allowing home venues to bid on predetermined regional sites, (2) moving the four regionals to the home venue of the No. 1 seed or (3) turning the first weekend into eight best-of-three series on the campus of the higher seed.”

(1) No, this is the stupid thing we already do that sucks.

(2) Better, but it does create one or two games without the host playing that would be attendance poison. And why do it that way since there is a perfect solution in...

(3) But if we do this (which we should) that should also commit the QF to the same format.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Trotsky (---.dc.dc.cox.net)
Date: March 06, 2018 12:19PM

There's a 4th solution, too. Keep the regionals. Get rid of hosts and intraconference restriction and concentrate on seeding by actual region. Have a very tight rotation around 2-3 true regional sites:

West: St. Paul, Denver
Central: Chicago, Detroit
East: Albany, Worcester
Northeast: Manchester, Boston

Break the PWR standings into 4 bands; within band, start with the best team and seed to the closest site. Rinse and repeat.

So, right now (guessing at mileage):

Sioux Falls

1. (1) St. Cloud
2. (5) Mankato
3. (9) Minn-Duluth
4. (13) Minnesota

Allentown

1. (2) Notre Dame
2. (6) Denver
3. (11) Penn State
4. (14) UNO

Worcester

1. (3) Cornell
2. (7) Ohio State
3. (10) Northeastern
4. (15) North Dakota

Bridgeport

1. (4) Ohio State
2. (8) Clarkson
3. (12) Providence
4. (22) Mercyhurst
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 03/06/2018 12:21PM by Trotsky.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: RichH (134.223.116.---)
Date: March 06, 2018 12:57PM

Trotsky
upprdeck
I am all in on best of 3.. in a best world all the rounds would be best of 3.
In a perfect world the 1R and QF are best of 3 at campus site. The F4 is perfect the way it already is.

Ugh. No, I'm with Al: No best of 3. The NCAA basketball tournament is so popular BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSETS. Cornell could have advanced in 1991 after an incredible victory, but instead it's just a footnote in all the "Why Yost Rules" legends. The top teams already have tons of advantages...why give them more?

I'm all on board with your 4th suggestion.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: BigRedHockeyFan (---.phlapa.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 06, 2018 01:15PM

Trotsky
Keep the regionals. Get rid of hosts and intraconference restriction and concentrate on seeding by actual region. Have a very tight rotation around 2-3 true regional sites

Ditto, but with one exception. Playing in Denver always gives the altitude adapted teams an advantage (Denver, CC, Air Force).
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: marty (---.sub-70-209-151.myvzw.com)
Date: March 06, 2018 01:22PM

RichH
Trotsky
upprdeck
I am all in on best of 3.. in a best world all the rounds would be best of 3.
In a perfect world the 1R and QF are best of 3 at campus site. The F4 is perfect the way it already is.

Ugh. No, I'm with Al: No best of 3. The NCAA basketball tournament is so popular BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSETS. Cornell could have advanced in 1991 after an incredible victory, but instead it's just a footnote in all the "Why Yost Rules" legends. The top teams already have tons of advantages...why give them more?

I'm all on board with your 4th suggestion.

Also I'll add in a Bearlover free world that Yale's run to the title gave the EZAC cred. Single elimination is what makes for spiking HBP. Let me sweat bullets once a year.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: upprdeck (---.fs.cornell.edu)
Date: March 06, 2018 01:24PM

Populate in what way? the fact the regionals are empty in many places if they dont have a real power that travels? its draw is TV money not how well it sells tickets.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: abmarks (---.hsd1.ma.comcast.net)
Date: March 06, 2018 04:39PM

Trotsky
There's a 4th solution, too. Keep the regionals. Get rid of hosts and intraconference restriction and concentrate on seeding by actual region. Have a very tight rotation around 2-3 true regional sites:

West: St. Paul, Denver
Central: Chicago, Detroit
East: Albany, Worcester
Northeast: Manchester, Boston

Break the PWR standings into 4 bands; within band, start with the best team and seed to the closest site. Rinse and repeat.

So, right now (guessing at mileage):

Sioux Falls

1. (1) St. Cloud
2. (5) Mankato
3. (9) Minn-Duluth
4. (13) Minnesota

Allentown

1. (2) Notre Dame
2. (6) Denver
3. (11) Penn State
4. (14) UNO

Worcester

1. (3) Cornell
2. (7) Ohio State
3. (10) Northeastern
4. (15) North Dakota

Bridgeport

1. (4) Ohio State
2. (8) Clarkson
3. (12) Providence
4. (22) Mercyhurst

Ugh. Please no!

THis would be good for attendance, sure. But what I love about the regionals now is that we get the east-west and other matchups not usually seen. The location rota are a good idea, but let's keep the banding regardless of where the teams are from.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Jeff Hopkins '82 (---.165.31.119.virtela.net)
Date: March 07, 2018 12:46AM

OOC, isn't the Bracketology "rule" that we assume the conference leader is the AQ for that conference? if so, why is anybody dealing with North Dakota? BC is in first place in Hockey East, despite their PWR position. So they are the 15 seed, not NoDak.

JH
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 07, 2018 05:25AM

Jeff Hopkins '82
OOC, isn't the Bracketology "rule" that we assume the conference leader is the AQ for that conference? if so, why is anybody dealing with North Dakota? BC is in first place in Hockey East, despite their PWR position. So they are the 15 seed, not NoDak.

JH

The "rule" is that we assume the conference leader is the AQ for that conference if nobody from that conference would qualify for AL. It's a convention for reserving the slot for the conference (essentially, it is the Atlantic Hockey Quota). Northeastern is #10 (and Providence #12) so we don't consider BC.
Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 03/07/2018 05:27AM by Trotsky.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: adamw (---.phlapa.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 07, 2018 09:40AM

The Yale point is a perfect encapsulation of why best-of-3 on-campus regionals are bad, as I've argued ad nauseum forever. ... My argument comes down to this ... The Pairwise is not precise enough to give the higher seeded teams such an advantage. The Pairwise is an imprecise tool. This isn't conference standings where everyone plays each other during the season and they "earn" the higher seed. The Pairwise is good enough for selecting the field, but once in there, it's unfair to give double advantages. The higher seeded teams often get the benefit through the year of playing more home games than the "smaller" schools. So - Yale got the chance to beat North Dakota and Minnesota in the Regionals on neutral ice, in front of friends and family. So be it.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: adamw (---.phlapa.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 07, 2018 09:41AM

adamw
The Yale point is a perfect encapsulation of why best-of-3 on-campus regionals are bad, as I've argued ad nauseum forever. ... My argument comes down to this ... The Pairwise is not precise enough to give the higher seeded teams such an advantage. The Pairwise is an imprecise tool. This isn't conference standings where everyone plays each other during the season and they "earn" the higher seed. The Pairwise is good enough for selecting the field, but once in there, it's unfair to give double advantages. The higher seeded teams often get the benefit through the year of playing more home games than the "smaller" schools. So - Yale got the chance to beat North Dakota and Minnesota in the Regionals on neutral ice, in front of friends and family. So be it.

This logic, by the way, is shared by at least 75% of the coaches, which is why any discussion to do something different, never gets anywhere, and probably won't. The NCAA also wants neutral sites - known in advance - for TV reasons.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Trotsky (---.dc.dc.cox.net)
Date: March 07, 2018 10:19AM

adamw
The Pairwise is good enough for selecting the field, but once in there, it's unfair to give double advantages. The higher seeded teams often get the benefit through the year of playing more home games than the "smaller" schools. So - Yale got the chance to beat North Dakota and Minnesota in the Regionals on neutral ice, in front of friends and family. So be it.

That's a little disingenuous since it cherry picks one case that fits your narrative. We would need an exhaustive list of the times that higher seeds were f-cked by playing in situations advantageous to lower seeds.

But in looking back at 2005 and 2006 I was surprised that I misremembered both cases as Cornell being the better seed against Minny and Wisco. In fact it was the opposite in both cases.

BTW, your argument does not just kill best of 3. It kills campus seeds entirely.

I just want NC$$ games at Lynah! Why do you defy me with logic?!
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/07/2018 10:21AM by Trotsky.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: RichH (---.hsd1.ct.comcast.net)
Date: March 07, 2018 10:21AM

Also, Holy Cross over Minnesota.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Trotsky (---.dc.dc.cox.net)
Date: March 07, 2018 10:22AM

RichH
Also, Holy Cross over Minnesota.
Next on Geraldo: upsets are upsets!

You would also need to consider cases where better seed smaller schools got f-cked.

Though I suspect from their record that's probably typically Harvard, so...
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 03/07/2018 10:23AM by Trotsky.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.239.191.68.cl.cstel.com)
Date: March 07, 2018 10:37AM

This week’s movement has Omaha in, North Dakota out, Boston College going to Worcester

For anyone interested the article highlights NCAA guidelines.

This week’s brackets

Midwest Regional (Allentown):
14 Omaha vs. 4 Ohio State
11 Penn State vs. 5 Minnesota State

East Regional (Bridgeport):
13 Minnesota vs. 3 Cornell
12 Providence vs. 6 Denver

West Regional (Sioux Falls):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Michigan

Northeast Regional (Worcester):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
10 Northeastern vs. 8 Clarkson
Conference breakdowns

Big Ten — 5
NCHC — 4
Hockey East — 3
ECAC Hockey — 2
WCHA — 1
Atlantic Hockey – 1

This week’s movement:

Out: North Dakota

In: Omaha

 
___________________________
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Trotsky (---.dc.dc.cox.net)
Date: March 07, 2018 10:40AM

I could live with that.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: adamw (---.phlapa.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 07, 2018 11:01AM

Trotsky
That's a little disingenuous since it cherry picks one case that fits your narrative. We would need an exhaustive list of the times that higher seeds were f-cked by playing in situations advantageous to lower seeds.

I did say that I was using that as a microcosm ... If you want the exhaustive list, you'll have to read my 74 other articles about the topic. :)
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.239.191.68.cl.cstel.com)
Date: March 07, 2018 11:34AM

Trotsky
I could live with that.

Yes, it would be nice to get Minny more on our turf.

 
___________________________
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: upprdeck (---.fs.cornell.edu)
Date: March 07, 2018 11:59AM

Ok. so explain the anti 3 game home series thing to me again? Is the argument that PWR is flawed so you give a team home ice that doesnt deserve it? Dont we do that now in the current system by trying to keep teams close to home anyway and then completely reward and undeserving team by playing at home if they get in?

if best of 3 is bad then why do we do it in the 1st round where it has the least chance of being an upset?

and TV could care less about knowing sites in advance, they are a content driven service.. best of 3 means more games. more revenue, also some more cost.. hosting on home campus helps keep that cost down since they could actually have hosts have a break even model not a profit model. 8 teams would not have to travel instead of 16 traveling.

if it is all about upsets then keep the current system, but attendance is down across the board and this may prop it up a bit maybe not. but it would add to the excitement in the building and not so many empty seats, which is also a bad thing for TV.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: marty (199.168.151.---)
Date: March 07, 2018 12:42PM

upprdeck
Ok. so explain the anti 3 game home series thing to me again? Is the argument that PWR is flawed so you give a team home ice that doesnt deserve it? Dont we do that now in the current system by trying to keep teams close to home anyway and then completely reward and undeserving team by playing at home if they get in?

if best of 3 is bad then why do we do it in the 1st round where it has the least chance of being an upset?

and TV could care less about knowing sites in advance, they are a content driven service.. best of 3 means more games. more revenue ersatz Viagra commercials, also some more cost.. hosting on home campus helps keep that cost down since they could actually have hosts have a break even model not a profit model. 8 teams would not have to travel instead of 16 traveling.

if it is all about upsets then keep the current system, but attendance is down across the board and this may prop it up a bit maybe not. but it would add to the excitement in the building and not so many empty seats, which is also a bad thing for TV.

FYPbolt
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: adamw (---.phlapa.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 07, 2018 01:17PM

upprdeck
Ok. so explain the anti 3 game home series thing to me again? Is the argument that PWR is flawed so you give a team home ice that doesnt deserve it? Dont we do that now in the current system by trying to keep teams close to home anyway and then completely reward and undeserving team by playing at home if they get in?

When things like that happen, I don't like it either and usually complain about it. But I get that they are trying to have some semblance of crowd. ... But a single game at a neutral site that is somewhat close to some school, is better than a best-of-3 on campus. ... Also, the idea of "close to home" is not a rule that's written down - except for No. 1 seeds, but they deviate from that all the time, for other reasons. In different years with different committees, you've seen them emphasize attendance more than others.


upprdeck
if best of 3 is bad then why do we do it in the 1st round where it has the least chance of being an upset?

You're talking about conference tournament - different discussion.


upprdeck
and TV could care less about knowing sites in advance, they are a content driven service.. best of 3 means more games. more revenue, also some more cost.. hosting on home campus helps keep that cost down since they could actually have hosts have a break even model not a profit model. 8 teams would not have to travel instead of 16 traveling.

Just about all of this here is very untrue on many levels. I've even heard it straight from the horse's mouth, if you prefer.


upprdeck
if it is all about upsets then keep the current system, but attendance is down across the board and this may prop it up a bit maybe not. but it would add to the excitement in the building and not so many empty seats, which is also a bad thing for TV.

Personal preference. If you'd rather see more "excitement in the building" - then great. Personally, I've seen much too much evidence of small crowds at home playoff games to believe this will actually occur to get that excited about it. But OK if that's your preference. I prefer to lean towards fairness. I really don't care how much money everyone makes. And I'm just telling you that the large majority of coaches agree, so any changes are unlikely to happen.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: abmarks (---.hsd1.ma.comcast.net)
Date: March 07, 2018 01:25PM

upprdeck
Ok. so explain the anti 3 game home series thing to me again? Is the argument that PWR is flawed so you give a team home ice that doesnt deserve it? Dont we do that now in the current system by trying to keep teams close to home anyway and then completely reward and undeserving team by playing at home if they get in?


At the least, best of three makes for far fewer upsets, which takes a lot of magic out of the tournament. Is there any NCAA sport that has best of X in the tournament, apart possibly from the goofy system in baseball? Also, it's goofy to have one round as best of X and then play single elimination. If it was best of 3 in each round, then it would make lots of sense. Best of three seems a vestige of past history when there was a smaller NCAA field. Looking at the last 30 years:


-In 1986, there were 8 teams and the QF was the goofy two game series.

-In 1988 the tourney went to 12 teams, with the top 4 getting byes to the QF and the other 8 playing 2 game total goal series at the higher seed's rink. THe QF was also 2 game aggregate at the higher seed's rink.

-In 1989, there were 12 teams but they switched the first round to best of 3 instead of the goofy 2 game aggregate. THe second round was also best of 3 at the higher seed's rink.

-In 1992 the tourney went to single elimination and used regional sites, not home sites with 12 teams.


if best of 3 is bad then why do we do it in the 1st round where it has the least chance of being an upset?

upprdeck
and TV could care less about knowing sites in advance, they are a content driven service.. best of 3 means more games. more revenue, also some more cost.. hosting on home campus helps keep that cost down since they could actually have hosts have a break even model not a profit model. 8 teams would not have to travel instead of 16 traveling.

if it is all about upsets then keep the current system, but attendance is down across the board and this may prop it up a bit maybe not. but it would add to the excitement in the building and not so many empty seats, which is also a bad thing for TV.

-There's hardly enough TV revenue for the first NCAA round to make any marginal increase meaningful. Also, while today, one announcing team and camera team can be used for two round of 16 games on one day, and then the QF the next day. Switching the round of 16 to home best of three now needs 8 broadcasting teams - that's lot's more expensive.

I've got no idea why the ECAC has the best of three for the first round - it's pretty silly actually. The only reasons I can think of are that the home team will make 2 or 3x the gate due to the extra games. TV money again here is basically zero.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: upprdeck (---.fs.cornell.edu)
Date: March 07, 2018 01:39PM

I have talked with ESPN about the tv issues and crowd issues as well and thats not the answer i got in either case.. the fact they are even looking at this switch is completely crowd/ticket related. The Lax model may come into pay as well.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Weder (192.72.255.---)
Date: March 07, 2018 07:38PM

upprdeck
I have talked with ESPN about the tv issues and crowd issues as well and thats not the answer i got in either case.. the fact they are even looking at this switch is completely crowd/ticket related. The Lax model may come into pay as well.

I wouldn't be opposed to the lacrosse model if it eliminates the week off between the regionals and the semifinals. Would you have two or four sites for the round of 8?
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Jeff Hopkins '82 (---.165.31.119.virtela.net)
Date: March 07, 2018 10:59PM

Trotsky
Jeff Hopkins '82
OOC, isn't the Bracketology "rule" that we assume the conference leader is the AQ for that conference? if so, why is anybody dealing with North Dakota? BC is in first place in Hockey East, despite their PWR position. So they are the 15 seed, not NoDak.

JH

The "rule" is that we assume the conference leader is the AQ for that conference if nobody from that conference would qualify for AL. It's a convention for reserving the slot for the conference (essentially, it is the Atlantic Hockey Quota). Northeastern is #10 (and Providence #12) so we don't consider BC.

That's not how USCHO is doing it...see Jim's post with the most recent bracketology. They have BC, not NoDak.

Not that it really matters. In a week and a half, we'll have the real deal.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 08, 2018 07:23AM

Jeff Hopkins '82
That's not how USCHO is doing it...see Jim's post with the most recent bracketology. They have BC, not NoDak.
Oh.
OK, I did not know that. That's a perverse decision, but I am certainly down with perversity.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Jeff Hopkins '82 (110.5.249.---)
Date: March 09, 2018 09:42AM

Trotsky
Jeff Hopkins '82
That's not how USCHO is doing it...see Jim's post with the most recent bracketology. They have BC, not NoDak.
Oh.
OK, I did not know that. That's a perverse decision, but I am certainly down with perversity.

I'm not sure what to think about that.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Trotsky (---.dc.dc.cox.net)
Date: March 09, 2018 09:43AM

Jeff Hopkins '82
Trotsky
Jeff Hopkins '82
That's not how USCHO is doing it...see Jim's post with the most recent bracketology. They have BC, not NoDak.
Oh.
OK, I did not know that. That's a perverse decision, but I am certainly down with perversity.

I'm not sure what to think about that.
That's not what I heard.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Jeff Hopkins '82 (115.88.206.---)
Date: March 11, 2018 11:33PM

So, with Mankato losing to Mich. Tech it claims one more bubble slot for the WCHA autobid. If we assume that BC gets the HE autobid, then NoDak is out.

St. Cloud plays CHA winner
Notre Dame plays WCHA winner
We play Minnesota (since Ohio State can't)
Ohio State plays BC

If Denver passes Ohio State, then probably they get Minnesota and we get BC.

Of course, if OSU beats Notre Dame, the we probably move up to 2 and play the WCHA winner.

But it's all dependent on BC winning out, because if they don't they probably aren't in, and NoDak might be.

Still a lot of question marks. One week to go.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: adamw (---.phlapa.fios.verizon.net)
Date: March 12, 2018 01:07AM

Everyone please feel free to use You Are The Committee (than you JTW) -- the original and still the best -- at CHN:

[www.collegehockeynews.com]
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: RichH (---.hsd1.ct.comcast.net)
Date: March 12, 2018 01:53AM

Jeff Hopkins '82
Still a lot of question marks. One week to go.

One thing I’ve remembered seen on the internet is that the NCHC has a consolation game, so North Dakota will play two games. Depending on your level of optimism, that’s either an extra chance for a win (or tie in the case of the consy) vs a quality opponent, or a chance for them to get two losses hung on their record.

If NoDak wins the NCHC title, there’s a decent chance they elevate to the 9-12 band, get a 3 seed, and that’s probably good news for us.

Tonight’s Monte Carlo simulation on CHN makes it look like Cornell is a lock for a top-4 finish and a #1 seed. So far, I can’t find a way to drop us to #5.

It’s clear we have to be big fans of the BU/BC winner in the HEA Final.

I just found a YATC scenario where a Cornell win over Clarkson in the Final gives us #1 overall, but flipping that one result drops us to #4. [goo.gl]

Crazy, but fun, times this week.
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 03/12/2018 01:58AM by RichH.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: Jeff Hopkins '82 (110.5.249.---)
Date: March 12, 2018 07:48AM

My playing with YATC (Thanks, Adam!): If we win out and the top 4 are us, St. Cloud, Notre Dame and OSU, even if we finish second, then most likely we get Minnesota in the first round, because I've come up with many scenarios where they finish 13th. The only way that doesn't happen is if Duluth loses out (semifinal and consy). Then Minnesota moves up to 12th, there are no Big 10 teams in the 13-16 band, and the committee has free reign to slot us.
 
Re: Bracketology Starts
Posted by: KenP (137.75.68.---)
Date: March 12, 2018 08:06AM

Cornell gets the #1 overall IF:
  • Cornell wins out AND
  • St. Cloud is held to one point or less (semi-final loss AND loss or tie in the consolation game)
The CHN Monte Carlo simulation shows a non-zero chance of Cornell at the #5 PWR. Denver needs to beat St. Cloud in the finals AND Ohio State needs to lose AND all RPI factors work to bump Ohio State up to #4 despite a loss:
  • ECAC Semifinal #1: Princeton def. Cornell
  • ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard def. Clarkson
  • ECAC Championship: Harvard def. Princeton
  • Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College def. Boston University
  • Hockey East Semifinal #2: Northeastern def. Providence
  • Hockey East Championship: Northeastern def. Boston College
  • Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Robert Morris def. Mercyhurst
  • Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Air Force def. Canisius
  • Atlantic Hockey Championship: Robert Morris def. Air Force
  • WCHA Championship: Michigan Tech def. Northern Michigan
  • Big Ten Championship: Notre Dame def. Ohio State
  • NCHC Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State def. North Dakota
  • NCHC Semifinal #2: Denver def. Minnesota-Duluth
  • NCHC Championship: Denver def. St. Cloud State
  • NCHC Consolation: North Dakota ties Minnesota-Duluth

      Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 03/12/2018 08:16AM by KenP.
     
    Re: Bracketology Starts
    Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.239.191.68.cl.cstel.com)
    Date: March 12, 2018 08:25AM

    KenP
    Cornell gets the #1 overall IF:
    • Cornell wins out AND
    • St. Cloud is held to one point or less (semi-final loss AND loss or tie in the consolation game)
    The CHN Monte Carlo simulation shows a non-zero chance of Cornell at the #5 PWR. Denver needs to beat St. Cloud in the finals AND Ohio State needs to lose AND all RPI factors work to bump Ohio State up to #4 despite a loss:
    • ECAC Semifinal #1: Princeton def. Cornell
    • ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard def. Clarkson
    • ECAC Championship: Harvard def. Princeton
    • Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College def. Boston University
    • Hockey East Semifinal #2: Northeastern def. Providence
    • Hockey East Championship: Northeastern def. Boston College
    • Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Robert Morris def. Mercyhurst
    • Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Air Force def. Canisius
    • Atlantic Hockey Championship: Robert Morris def. Air Force
    • WCHA Championship: Michigan Tech def. Northern Michigan
    • Big Ten Championship: Notre Dame def. Ohio State
    • NCHC Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State def. North Dakota
    • NCHC Semifinal #2: Denver def. Minnesota-Duluth
    • NCHC Championship: Denver def. St. Cloud State
    • NCHC Consolation: North Dakota ties Minnesota-Duluth

      I'd guess that's why CHN's Pairwise Probability Matrix lists us as having a 0.0% chance of being 5th. Meaning it came out to be a less than 0.05% chance and it got rounded to 0.0%. If there's no chance of a position, you don't have any number listed.

      If that's true, I can live with a <0.05% chance of not being in the top 4.

       
      ___________________________
      "Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
      Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
       
      Re: Bracketology Starts
      Posted by: billhoward (---.nwrk.east.verizon.net)
      Date: March 12, 2018 08:29AM

      Penn State lost the Big Ten semifinal to Notre Dame 3-2 Saturday. They were a projected 3-seed going in. Does the loss pushm the out of the tournament? Does it drop Penn State to a 4-seed in Allentown, where they must play as the regional host? Where Cornell could be the 1-seed in the regional where Cornell would play 3 hours away?

      But then how many teams are we trying to avoid: Princeton, Harvard in the ECACs? PSU in the regionals?
       
      Re: Bracketology Starts
      Posted by: Jeff Hopkins '82 (110.5.249.---)
      Date: March 12, 2018 08:46AM

      For PSU to drop to 13th it requires NoDak to win out. I can get us to first in that scenario, but if BC doesn't win hockey east, Minnesota is 14th. So Notre Dame and OSU get the lower seeds and we and St. Cloud get the Big 10 schools, with us probably in Allentown.

      If BC wins out, Minnesota is out, we get the CHA autobid and St. Cloud gets Penn State. But if St. Cloud finishes first, they get the CHA autobid and we get Penn State.
       
      Re: Bracketology Starts
      Posted by: adamw (---.phlapa.fios.verizon.net)
      Date: March 12, 2018 08:58AM

      Jeff Hopkins '82
      If BC wins out, Minnesota is out, we get the CHA autobid and St. Cloud gets Penn State. But if St. Cloud finishes first, they get the CHA autobid and we get Penn State.

      Atlantic Hockey - not CHA ... FYI. But your point stands.
       
      Re: Bracketology Starts
      Posted by: Swampy (---.ri.ri.cox.net)
      Date: March 12, 2018 09:11AM

      In a way, given how Cornell has played most games against teams that are highly regarded (H/D weekend, all 4 Q games, BU, 2nd K game) versus teams that might be regarded as meh (2nd Brown game, RPI, 1st Miami game), I'm beginning to think I'd prefer Cornell to play, say, Minnesota rather than a team our guys might subconsciously think is a cupcake, like one from AH. Remember Bemidji State.
       
      Re: Bracketology Starts
      Posted by: BearLover (---.sub-174-203-2.myvzw.com)
      Date: March 12, 2018 10:52AM

      Swampy
      In a way, given how Cornell has played most games against teams that are highly regarded (H/D weekend, all 4 Q games, BU, 2nd K game) versus teams that might be regarded as meh (2nd Brown game, RPI, 1st Miami game), I'm beginning to think I'd prefer Cornell to play, say, Minnesota rather than a team our guys might subconsciously think is a cupcake, like one from AH. Remember Bemidji State.
      Strongly disagree with this--i think you're cherrypicking. We also have games versus weak teams where we blew them out (first StL game, second Miami game, etc.), and you're not taking into account how those games played out (we won nailbiters versus H, BU, got thrashed by Clarkson the first time, badly outshot Miami in the first game, etc.)

      This team will come ready to play for the NCAA tournament regardless of who our opponent is.
      Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/12/2018 10:53AM by BearLover.
       
      Re: Bracketology Starts
      Posted by: KenP (137.75.68.---)
      Date: March 12, 2018 11:16AM

      15 games left, one can be a tie. That means 2^15 + 1 = 32,769 possible outcomes. I’d be curious to see a version of the CHN Pairwise Probability Matrix that ignores KRACH and simply shows haw many (or what percentage of) scenarios work out to who is in the tourney at what seeding.
       
      Re: Bracketology Starts
      Posted by: ursusminor (---.washdc.east.verizon.net)
      Date: March 12, 2018 12:21PM

      KenP
      15 games left, one can be a tie. That means 2^15 + 1 = 32,769 possible outcomes. I’d be curious to see a version of the CHN Pairwise Probability Matrix that ignores KRACH and simply shows haw many (or what percentage of) scenarios work out to who is in the tourney at what seeding.

      Isn't it 2^14 * 3 = 98,304?
       
      Re: Bracketology Starts
      Posted by: KenP (137.75.68.---)
      Date: March 12, 2018 12:39PM

      ursusminor
      KenP
      15 games left, one can be a tie. That means 2^15 + 1 = 32,769 possible outcomes. I’d be curious to see a version of the CHN Pairwise Probability Matrix that ignores KRACH and simply shows haw many (or what percentage of) scenarios work out to who is in the tourney at what seeding.

      Isn't it 2^14 * 3 = 98,304?
      ummmmmmmmmm... i think it's time for some random emoji..... burnout crazy panic
      Actually, it's 49,152.
      Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/12/2018 12:42PM by KenP.
       
      Re: Bracketology Starts
      Posted by: ursusminor (---.washdc.east.verizon.net)
      Date: March 12, 2018 12:57PM

      KenP
      ursusminor
      KenP
      15 games left, one can be a tie. That means 2^15 + 1 = 32,769 possible outcomes. I’d be curious to see a version of the CHN Pairwise Probability Matrix that ignores KRACH and simply shows haw many (or what percentage of) scenarios work out to who is in the tourney at what seeding.

      Isn't it 2^14 * 3 = 98,304?
      ummmmmmmmmm... i think it's time for some random emoji..... burnout crazy panic
      Actually, it's 49,152.
      :-/
       
      Re: Bracketology Starts
      Posted by: adamw (---.phlapa.fios.verizon.net)
      Date: March 12, 2018 01:10PM

      KenP
      15 games left, one can be a tie. That means 2^15 + 1 = 32,769 possible outcomes. I’d be curious to see a version of the CHN Pairwise Probability Matrix that ignores KRACH and simply shows haw many (or what percentage of) scenarios work out to who is in the tourney at what seeding.

      I tried this a bunch of times before giving up on figuring out a good way to code out, and going with the Monte Carlo method.

      It's probably better with Monte Carlo anyway, since not all scenarios are equally likely, so it doesn't do much good to treat them as such.

      But yes, I would love to be able to run something that goes through all scenarios. It's easier now than in years past, when everyone had semis this weekend and therefore there were over 3 million permutations. Now, with two conferences already to their finals, there's far fewer. So I could brute force it. But it's still a programming struggle. Someone with much more experience in this area could probably help me out - but I googled endlessly on it and came up empty.
       
      Re: Bracketology Starts
      Posted by: KenP (137.75.68.---)
      Date: March 12, 2018 01:23PM

      adamw
      KenP
      15 games left, one can be a tie. That means 2^15 + 1 = 32,769 possible outcomes. I’d be curious to see a version of the CHN Pairwise Probability Matrix that ignores KRACH and simply shows haw many (or what percentage of) scenarios work out to who is in the tourney at what seeding.

      I tried this a bunch of times before giving up on figuring out a good way to code out, and going with the Monte Carlo method.

      It's probably better with Monte Carlo anyway, since not all scenarios are equally likely, so it doesn't do much good to treat them as such.

      But yes, I would love to be able to run something that goes through all scenarios. It's easier now than in years past, when everyone had semis this weekend and therefore there were over 3 million permutations. Now, with two conferences already to their finals, there's far fewer. So I could brute force it. But it's still a programming struggle. Someone with much more experience in this area could probably help me out - but I googled endlessly on it and came up empty.
      Adam, you've done the hard part already -- you have the engine to run results and tally PWR. I can create a list of 49,152 numbers where 0 means "first team wins", 1 means "second team wins" and 2 means "tie for NCHC consolation". Run each one through your PWR engine, cut the brackets down based on lower seed AQs and you're set. PM me if you want to discuss further. It'll take me about 15 minutes to create values in a spreadsheet.
       
      Re: Bracketology Starts
      Posted by: jy3 (---.bflony.fios.verizon.net)
      Date: March 13, 2018 07:51PM

      KenP
      Cornell gets the #1 overall IF:
      • Cornell wins out AND
      • St. Cloud is held to one point or less (semi-final loss AND loss or tie in the consolation game)
      The CHN Monte Carlo simulation shows a non-zero chance of Cornell at the #5 PWR. Denver needs to beat St. Cloud in the finals AND Ohio State needs to lose AND all RPI factors work to bump Ohio State up to #4 despite a loss:
      • ECAC Semifinal #1: Princeton def. Cornell
      • ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard def. Clarkson
      • ECAC Championship: Harvard def. Princeton
      • Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College def. Boston University
      • Hockey East Semifinal #2: Northeastern def. Providence
      • Hockey East Championship: Northeastern def. Boston College
      • Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Robert Morris def. Mercyhurst
      • Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Air Force def. Canisius
      • Atlantic Hockey Championship: Robert Morris def. Air Force
      • WCHA Championship: Michigan Tech def. Northern Michigan
      • Big Ten Championship: Notre Dame def. Ohio State
      • NCHC Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State def. North Dakota
      • NCHC Semifinal #2: Denver def. Minnesota-Duluth
      • NCHC Championship: Denver def. St. Cloud State
      • NCHC Consolation: North Dakota ties Minnesota-Duluth

        I was playing with this and did not have time to figure out these scenarios. Thank you for posting this. Always good to check out elynah this time of year. LGR!

         
        ___________________________
        LGR!!!!!!!!!!
        jy3 '00
         
        Re: Bracketology Starts
        Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.239.191.68.cl.cstel.com)
        Date: March 14, 2018 01:10PM

        This week’s movement shows Northern Michigan in, Omaha out

        This week’s brackets

        Midwest Regional (Allentown):
        15 Northern Michigan vs. 4 Ohio State
        12 Penn State vs. 5 Denver

        East Regional (Bridgeport):
        13 Minnesota vs. 3 Cornell
        9 Providence vs. 6 Minnesota State

        West Regional (Sioux Falls):
        16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
        10 Michigan vs. 8 Minnesota Duluth

        Northeast Regional (Worcester):
        14 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
        11 Clarkson vs. 7 Northeastern

        Conference breakdowns

        Big Ten — 5
        NCHC — 3
        Hockey East — 3
        ECAC Hockey — 2
        WCHA — 2
        Atlantic Hockey – 1

        This week’s movement:

        Out: Omaha

        In: Northern Michigan

         
        ___________________________
        "Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
        Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
         
        Re: Bracketology Starts
        Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.ftas.verizon.net)
        Date: March 16, 2018 07:02PM

        I think it's looking very likely that we get Minnesota at this point.
         
        Re: Bracketology Starts
        Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.ftas.verizon.net)
        Date: March 16, 2018 08:34PM

        BU wins in OT to keep their season alive and end BC's. Harvard is up 2-0 vs Clarkson. If Harvard hangs on, we just need BU to win tomorrow to avoid Minnesota. Otherwise, we almost certainly get Minnesota. (I think.)

        EDIT: Never mind. Didn't notice how close Minnesota and Penn State are. I think we are very likely to play one or the other.
        Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/16/2018 08:37PM by BearLover.
         
        Re: Bracketology Starts
        Posted by: Dafatone (---.sub-174-219-128.myvzw.com)
        Date: March 16, 2018 08:47PM

        If Sucks beats Clarkson, I believe North Dakota is out.
         
        Re: Bracketology Starts
        Posted by: Beeeej (Moderator)
        Date: March 16, 2018 08:50PM

        Dafatone
        If Sucks beats Clarkson, I believe North Dakota is out.

        Unless other math pushes them back up above #14, yeah, they'd have to be.

         
        ___________________________
        Beeeej, Esq.
        Tundra British Columbia Headhunters Circus
        Tucson or Bust!

        "Cornell isn't an organization. It's a loose affiliation of independent fiefdoms united by a common hockey team."
        - Steve Worona
         
        Re: Bracketology Starts
        Posted by: KenP (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
        Date: March 16, 2018 08:55PM

        Based on results so far Cornell is 100% guaranteed to be #4 or higher in PWR
         
        Re: Bracketology Starts
        Posted by: RichH (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
        Date: March 16, 2018 08:55PM

        If Clarkson loses, North Dakota is out. A Notre Dame win gives us a decent chance to finish #3 overall.

        This scenario probably has us playing Northern Michigan. [goo.gl]
         
        Re: Bracketology Starts
        Posted by: Dafatone (---.sub-174-219-128.myvzw.com)
        Date: March 16, 2018 09:23PM

        Dafatone
        If Sucks beats Clarkson, I believe North Dakota is out.

        Of course, here comes Clarkson.
         
        Re: Bracketology Starts
        Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.ftas.verizon.net)
        Date: March 16, 2018 09:28PM

        RichH
        If Clarkson loses, North Dakota is out.
        NoDak has a consolation game tomorrow--not sure if you were factoring that into your calculations.
         
        Re: Bracketology Starts
        Posted by: Dafatone (---.sub-174-219-128.myvzw.com)
        Date: March 16, 2018 09:30PM

        BearLover
        RichH
        If Clarkson loses, North Dakota is out.
        NoDak has a consolation game tomorrow--not sure if you were factoring that into your calculations.

        It looks like NoDak is too far from the next spot to move up, even if they win. They could move down if they lose, though.
         
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