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Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18

Posted by Jim Hyla 
Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: March 27, 2017 02:35PM

Poll
What would meet your expectations?
This poll has expired. Voting is no longer possible.
62 votes were received.
ECAC Bottom Third 0
 
0%
ECAC First Round Home 4
 
6%
ECAC First Round Bye 3
 
5%
Lake Placid 12
 
19%
NCAA Regionals 38
 
61%
NCAA Frozen Four 4
 
6%
NCAA Champs 1
 
2%



So here's Beeeej's preseason poll.

Beeeej
Make Your Prediction: What performance would meet your expectations of Big Red Men's Hockey in 2016-17?

73 votes were received.

ECAC Bottom Third 	1 	1%
ECAC First Round Home 	24 	33%
ECAC First Round Bye 	15 	21%
Lake Placid 	        18 	25%
ECAC Champions and/or 
NCAA Regionals 	        12 	16%
Frozen Four 	        1 	1%
National Champions 	2 	3% 

So I guess we met/exceeded most peoples expectations.

Using the same criteria, what are you expecting for next season?

 
___________________________
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: Trotsky (---.dc.dc.cox.net)
Date: March 27, 2017 02:46PM

Was last years poll taken right after our elimination?

I have a feeling we have more extreme expectations (good or bad) right after the prior season ends than just before the coming season begins.
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: March 27, 2017 02:49PM

Trotsky
Was last years poll taken right after our elimination?

I have a feeling we have more extreme expectations (good or bad) right after the prior season ends than just before the coming season begins.

No it was in the fall, but much to your point, I thought it might be interesting to see how they differ this fall, from now.

 
___________________________
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: BearLover (---.hfc.comcastbusiness.net)
Date: March 27, 2017 04:36PM

What would meet my expectations for the Cornell Hockey program generally, or how do I expect them to finish next year? The former: NCAA appearance; the latter: Lake Placid
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: Beeeej (Moderator)
Date: March 27, 2017 04:45PM

BearLover
What would meet my expectations for the Cornell Hockey program generally, or how do I expect them to finish next year? The former: NCAA appearance; the latter: Lake Placid

How you expect them to finish in 2017-18. There wouldn't be much point in doing the poll annually if it were the former.

 
___________________________
Beeeej, Esq.
Tundra British Columbia Headhunters Circus
Tucson or Bust!

"Cornell isn't an organization. It's a loose affiliation of independent fiefdoms united by a common hockey team."
- Steve Worona
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: Hooking (---.res.bhn.net)
Date: April 01, 2017 12:16PM

How the mighty have fallen. From statistical analysis to predictions/Expectations! Of course there could be a lot of overlap here. There certainly is in reports by stock-market/investment touts.
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: French Rage (---.hsd1.ca.comcast.net)
Date: April 01, 2017 10:02PM

Hooking
How the mighty have fallen. From statistical analysis to predictions/Expectations! Of course there could be a lot of overlap here. There certainly is in reports by stock-market/investment touts.

Fuck off.

 
___________________________
03/23/02: Maine 4, Harvard 3
03/28/03: BU 6, Harvard 4
03/26/04: Maine 5, Harvard 4
03/26/05: UNH 3, Harvard 2
03/25/06: Maine 6, Harvard 1
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: slh10 (---.twcny.rr.com)
Date: April 02, 2017 11:41AM

+1
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: Beeeej (Moderator)
Date: April 02, 2017 11:46AM

Hooking
How the mighty have fallen. From statistical analysis to predictions/Expectations!

Hooking (eight days earlier)
Cornell wins, 3-1.

wank

 
___________________________
Beeeej, Esq.
Tundra British Columbia Headhunters Circus
Tucson or Bust!

"Cornell isn't an organization. It's a loose affiliation of independent fiefdoms united by a common hockey team."
- Steve Worona
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: Trotsky (---.dc.dc.cox.net)
Date: April 25, 2017 02:46PM

(deleted)
Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 05/20/2017 11:14AM by Trotsky.
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: nshapiro (192.148.195.---)
Date: April 25, 2017 07:01PM

Trotsky
Early TBRW? 2018 Predictions! (subject to change):

Bottom Line:
 1 31 Cor  0
 2 30 Qpc +3
 3 29 Hvd -5
 4 28 Uni -6
 5 27 SLU -1
 6 22 Prn +3
 7 21 Clk -2
 8 20 Yal +2
 9 18 Drt +2
10 16 Cgt +1
11 14 RPI +2
12  9 Brn +2



Never Explain:
		RS    PS	 IMP??	Prior	Ret%	  Ret	Inc%	Avg10	 Reg	 Nieu	 Norm	Pred
Brown		7	 0	  0	 7	.91	 6.38	.09	14.20	 .63	 7.01	 8.60	12
Clarkson	23	 0	  0	23	.55	12.65	.45	21.30	4.79	17.44	21.41	 7
Colgate		15	 0	  0	15	.60	 9.00	.40	19.70	3.94	12.94	15.88	10
Cornell		31	 1	  0	32	.63	20.06	.37	25.70	4.79	24.86	30.50	 1
Dartmouth	16	 0	  0	16	.73	11.74	.27	20.30	2.70	14.44	17.73	 9
Harvard		34	 0	  1	35	.51	17.89	.49	22.50	5.50	23.39	28.70	 3
Princeton	19	 0	  0	19	.88	16.70	.12	17.60	1.06	17.77	21.80	 6
Quinnipiac	27	 1	  0	28	.76	21.17	.24	27.10	3.31	24.47	30.03	 2
RPI		12	 0	  0	12	.74	 8.87	.26	19.30	2.52	11.39	13.97	11
SLU		28	-1	  0	27	.69	18.74	.31	22.10	3.38	22.12	27.15	 5
Union		34	-1	 -3	30	.56	16.71	.44	27.10	6.00	22.71	27.87	 4
Yale		18	 0	  0	18	.69	12.40	.31	26.90	4.18	16.58	20.35	 8



I believe that your column headings have an issue - should be RS PS and maybe IMP...although I doubt 10 teams did exactly the same as they did from first half to second half...and IMP would have to sum to zero...so I have no idea what the AW column is.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/25/2017 07:02PM by nshapiro.
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: Trotsky (---.hsd1.md.comcast.net)
Date: April 25, 2017 07:19PM

Imp is divided by 2, rounded down, so it doesn't have to sum to zero.

There is an issue, though. I'll get there...
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: Trotsky (---.hsd1.md.comcast.net)
Date: May 20, 2017 11:16AM

OK. Let's try this again.

Bottom line:
 1. Harvard
 2. Cornell
 3. Quinnipiac
 4. Union
 5. SLU
 6. Clarkson
 7. Princeton
 8. Yale
 9. Colgate
10. RPI
11. Dartmouth
12. Brown
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: scoop85 (---.hvc.res.rr.com)
Date: May 20, 2017 11:37AM

I think Union's too high -- they've lost too much top-end talent. And I think Yale will be a bit higher -- maybe 5th or 6th.
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: Trotsky (---.hsd1.md.comcast.net)
Date: May 20, 2017 07:36PM

scoop85
I think Union's too high -- they've lost too much top-end talent. And I think Yale will be a bit higher -- maybe 5th or 6th.
I was thinking about applying a punishment for teams that lose a ton of players. Right now they just have their percentage of new players multiplied by their average points from the past ten years. That means if a team has been very good for a long period they hold or even improve their estimate if they lose a lot of production (the theoretical justification being good teams tend to recruit good replacements).

My thought was I could only give them credit for some percentage of that anticipated incoming strength. For example giving them only half would scale up the "punishment" for losing production.

I will run the numbers to see what happens. I do not particularly like it when a power team loses everything but still retains a high standing. That happens sometimes but by no means always.
Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 05/20/2017 07:39PM by Trotsky.
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: Trotsky (---.hsd1.md.comcast.net)
Date: May 20, 2017 10:53PM

I ran it with Fut weighted .5.

Changes:

Harvard 1 --> 3
Cornell 2 --> 1
Quinnipiac 3 --> 2
Union 4 --> 4
SLU 5 --> 6
Clarkson 6 --> 7
Princeton 7 --> 5
Yale 8 --> 8
Colgate 9 --> 11
RPI 10 --> 9
Dartmouth 11 --> 10
Brown 12 --> 12
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: Johnny 5 (---.rochester.res.rr.com)
Date: May 22, 2017 08:37AM

"Good things come to those who wait." ~ Arthur Guiness
Summer can now be better tolerated.
And, perhaps not all of Cornell athletics is in a death spiral?
Hope springs eternal......

:-D
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.239.191.68.cl.cstel.com)
Date: May 22, 2017 01:14PM

Johnny 5
"Good things come to those who wait." ~ Arthur Guiness
Summer can now be better tolerated.
And, perhaps not all of Cornell athletics is in a death spiral?
Hope springs eternal......

:-D

But I don't like to ever be predicted to be #1. Unless Ned Harkness were to be the coach, of course.:-D

 
___________________________
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.239.191.68.cl.cstel.com)
Date: May 22, 2017 01:16PM

Trotsky
I ran it with Fut weighted .5.

Changes:

Harvard 1 --> 3
Cornell 2 --> 1
Quinnipiac 3 --> 2
Union 4 --> 4
SLU 5 --> 6
Clarkson 6 --> 7
Princeton 7 --> 5
Yale 8 --> 8
Colgate 9 --> 11
RPI 10 --> 9
Dartmouth 11 --> 10
Brown 12 --> 12

So interestingly, no big deal.

 
___________________________
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: Trotsky (---.dc.dc.cox.net)
Date: May 22, 2017 03:05PM

Jim Hyla
So interestingly, no big deal.
If you drop Fut entirely Union comes in 6th.
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: Trotsky (---.dc.dc.cox.net)
Date: June 23, 2017 09:53AM

With the new roster out, here's our depth by position. Superlative performers in bold. It is not a star-studded group, but Mike sounds like he is continuing to transition to a faster, more agile team.

G (3)

Stewart
Galajda
McGrath

D (9)

Kaldis
McCray
Bliss
Smith

Nuttle
Cairns
Green
Haiskanen
Shore

F (16)

Vanderlaan
Angello
Yates
Starrett

Fiegl
Tschantz
Malott
Rauter
Bauld
Murphy
Hoffman
Mullin
Betts
Baron
Locke
Donaldson
Edited 5 time(s). Last edit at 06/24/2017 12:46PM by Trotsky.
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: ACM (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: June 23, 2017 10:48AM

Trotsky
With the new roster out, here's our depth by position. Superlative performers in bold. It is not a star-studded group, but Mike sounds like he is continuing to transition to a faster, more agile team.

G (3)

Stewart
Galajda
McGrath

D (8)

Kaldis
Bliss
Smith

Nuttle
Cairns
Green
Haiskanen
Shore

F (16)

Vanderlaan
Angello
Yates
Starrett

Fiegl
Tschantz
Malott
Rauter
Bauld
Murphy
Hoffman
Mullin
Betts
Baron
Locke
Donaldson
Do you know something about Alec McCrea that we don't, or is this just sloppy?
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: Trotsky (---.dc.dc.cox.net)
Date: June 23, 2017 12:21PM

ACM
Do you know something about Alec McCrea that we don't, or is this just sloppy?

Fixed above.
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: ACM (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: June 23, 2017 12:59PM

Trotsky
ACM
Do you know something about Alec McCrea that we don't, or is this just sloppy?

Fixed above.

Changed. Not fixed. Is that Matt or Mark you're referring to?
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: Trotsky (---.dc.dc.cox.net)
Date: June 23, 2017 02:59PM

ACM
Changed. Not fixed. Is that Matt or Mark you're referring to?
Not my fault he spells his name wrong.
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: Cop at Lynah (---.cupolice.cornell.edu)
Date: June 23, 2017 03:42PM

Don't count on Bliss being available
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: ACM (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: June 23, 2017 04:45PM

Trotsky
ACM
Changed. Not fixed. Is that Matt or Mark you're referring to?
Not my fault he spells his name wrong.

But it is your fault that you do. McCrea, not McCrae. Is that so difficult?
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: June 23, 2017 07:42PM

Cop at Lynah
Don't count on Bliss being available
This is ridiculous. Either post the basis for your claim, or don't post wild speculation.
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: June 23, 2017 07:45PM

Trotsky
With the new roster out, here's our depth by position. Superlative performers in bold. It is not a star-studded group, but Mike sounds like he is continuing to transition to a faster, more agile team.

G (3)

Stewart
Galajda
McGrath

D (9)

Kaldis
McCrae
Bliss
Smith

Nuttle
Cairns
Green
Haiskanen
Shore

F (16)

Vanderlaan
Angello
Yates
Starrett

Fiegl
Tschantz
Malott
Rauter
Bauld
Murphy
Hoffman
Mullin
Betts
Baron
Locke
Donaldson
Starrett (4-10-14) is a "superlative performer" but Rauter (8-9-17 while playing much of the season on D) isn't?
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: June 24, 2017 12:45PM

BearLover
Starrett (4-10-14) is a "superlative performer" but Rauter (8-9-17 while playing much of the season on D) isn't?

Your bold choices may vary. To this day I have seen no Cornellian more bold than Terry Gage.
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: June 24, 2017 12:46PM

ACM
Trotsky
ACM
Changed. Not fixed. Is that Matt or Mark you're referring to?
Not my fault he spells his name wrong.

But it is your fault that you do. McCrea, not McCrae. Is that so difficult?
Fixed above.
 
Re: Next Year's predictions/Expectations 2017-18
Posted by: Johnny 5 (---.rochester.res.rr.com)
Date: June 27, 2017 07:37AM


 

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