2017 ECAC Permutations

Have at it, folks. First, the short version:

Possible ECAC tournament seedings (the number in parentheses is the best
seed the team can get with no help):

Union          1-3    (1)
Harvard        1-3    (2)
Cornell        1-4    (3)
St. Lawrence   3-5    (4)
Quinnipiac     4-6    (5)
Clarkson       5-7    (6)
Yale           6-10   (7)
Dartmouth      7-10   (8)
Colgate        7-10   (9)
Princeton      7-10   (10)
Rensselaer    11-12   (11)
Brown         11-12   (12)

...and the too-much-time-on-my-hands version:

Once again, it’s time for the ECAC Playoff Permutatuions!  Not a lot of drama
this year, as most teams can finish in any of just three or four places, a far
cry from the usual confusion where teams can finish in a range of seven or
eight.  Not that I’m complaining much, as it makes the math a lot easier.

Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where
each team in the ECAC could finish.  As always, I'm greatly indebted to
John Whelan's excellent playoff possibilities script at
[www.elynah.com]

For each ECAC team, I've listed the following:

THIS WEEKEND:  The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN:  The highest the team could finish with no help from the
     competition.  Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE:  The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE:  The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
     This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
     standings win.
TIEBREAKERS:  How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
     some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
     standings.  Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
     lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
     more than just those two teams tied.  For instance, Dartmouth wins the
     head-to-head tiebreaker against Princeton with a 1-0-1 record; however,
     in a three-way tie involving these two and Yale, Dartmouth would actually
     be seeded lower than Princeton.  If a listed tiebreaker result depends on
     more than just those two teams being tied, it is marked with an asterisk:

          Dartmouth could win or lose* against Princeton

For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:

1.   Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
     tournaments, do not count).
2.   League wins.
3.   Record against the top four teams in the conference.
4.   Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
5.   Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
6.   Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
7.   Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.

Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are
used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the
"pack".  Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the remaining
ties.  For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way tie, once
one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure goes back to
the first step with the three remaining tied teams.


Without further ado, here's how things shape up:

Union:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Colgate, at Cornell.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches first with a pair of wins.
     BEST CASE:  First.
     WORST CASE:  Drops to third if they lose twice, Cornell does not lose to
     Rensselaer, and Harvard gets at least two points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Cornell; could win or lose against Harvard.

Harvard:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Clarkson, St. Lawrence.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Two points will give the Crimson second place.
     BEST CASE:  Wraps up first place with a sweep if Union does not win twice.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes third if they lose twice and Cornell gets at least
     three points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Cornell and St. Lawrence; could win or lose against
     Union.

Cornell:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Rensselaer, Union.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Would guarantee third place with two points.
     BEST CASE:  Climbs to first with a sweep if Union does not beat Colgate and
     Harvard gets no more than one point.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to fourth with two losses if St. Lawrence gets at least
     three points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Union and St. Lawrence; loses to Harvard.

St. Lawrence:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Dartmouth, at Harvard.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches fourth by picking up one point.
     BEST CASE:  Would take third with a sweep if Cornell gets no more than one
     point.
     WORST CASE:  Slides to fifth if they get swept and Quinnipiac wins twice.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Quinnipiac; loses to Harvard and Cornell.

Quinnipiac:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Yale, Brown.
     ON THEIR OWN:  One win gives Quinnipiac fifth place.
     BEST CASE:  Rises to fourth with a sweep if St. Lawrence loses twice.
     WORST CASE:  Would finish sixth if they don’t win either game and Clarkson
     sweeps.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to St. Lawrence; could win or lose against Clarkson.

Clarkson:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Harvard, at Dartmouth.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Guarantees sixth with two points.
     BEST CASE:  Wraps up fifth with a sweep if Quinnipiac does not win either
     game.
     WORST CASE:  Drops to seventh with two losses if Yale gets at least three
     points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Yale; could win or lose against Quinnipiac

Yale:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Quinnipiac, at Princeton.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Gets seventh with two points on the weekend.
     BEST CASE:  Clinches sixth with a sweep if Clarkson gets no more than one
     point.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to tenth if they lose twice, Dartmouth and Colgate get
     at least three points each, and Princeton does not lose to Brown.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Clarkson and Dartmouth; loses to Colgate and Princeton.

Dartmouth:
     THIS WEEKEND:  St. Lawrence, Clarkson.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Would clinch eighth with a sweep.
     BEST CASE:  Climbs to seventh with two wins if Yale gets no more than one
     point.
     WORST CASE:  Would end up in tenth if they lose twice and Colgate and
     Princeton each get at least two points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Yale; could win or lose against Colgate; could win
     or lose* against Princeton.

Colgate:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Union, Rensselaer.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Two wins would wrap up ninth place.
     BEST CASE:  Takes seventh with a sweep if Yale loses twice and Dartmouth
     gets no more than two points.
     WORST CASE:  Would slide to tenth if they lose twice and Princeton does
     not.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Yale and Princeton; could win or lose against Dart-
     mouth.

Princeton:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Brown, Yale.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Has already clinched tenth and can do no better without
     help.
     BEST CASE:  Would finish seventh with a sweep of Colgate does not win
     twice, Yale also loses to Quinnipiac, and Dartmouth gets no more than two
     points.
     WORST CASE:  Tenth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Yale; loses to Colgate; could win* or lose against
     Dartmouth.

Rensselaer:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Cornell, at Colgate.
     ON THEIR OWN:  One point will give the Engineers eleventh place.
     BEST CASE:  Eleventh.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to twelfth If they lose twice and Brown sweeps.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Brown

Brown:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Princeton, at Quinnipiac.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Can do no better than twelfth without help.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes eleventh with a sweep if Rensselaer loses twice.
     WORST CASE:  Twelfth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Rensselaer.

3-way:

So far I can't shake:

1. Hvd
2. Cor
3. Uni

Trotsky
3-way:

So far I can't shake:

1. Hvd
2. Cor
3. Uni

Yup, that's it, given that the other two can't get by Harvard's 3-1 record head-to-head, and given that this 3-way tie only happens if, among other things, Cornell beats Union. The tiebreaker would go:

3-way head-to-head:

Harvard 3-1
Cornell 2-2
Union 1-3

Harvard takes first. Then Cornell's 2-0 record against Union would give the Big Red second place.

Give My Regards

Cornell:
THIS WEEKEND: Rensselaer, Union.
ON THEIR OWN: Would guarantee third place with two points.
BEST CASE: Climbs to first with a sweep if Union does not beat Colgate and
Harvard gets no more than one point.
WORST CASE: Falls to fourth with two losses if St. Lawrence gets at least
three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Union and St. Lawrence; loses to Harvard.

Unless I am badly mistaken, Cornell also claims first with two Harvard losses and a Union loss to Colgate if Cornell ties RPI and beats Union. (We don't need to sweep if the stars align correctly.)

andyw2100

Give My Regards

Cornell:
THIS WEEKEND: Rensselaer, Union.
ON THEIR OWN: Would guarantee third place with two points.
BEST CASE: Climbs to first with a sweep if Union does not beat Colgate and
Harvard gets no more than one point.
WORST CASE: Falls to fourth with two losses if St. Lawrence gets at least
three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Union and St. Lawrence; loses to Harvard.

Unless I am badly mistaken, Cornell also claims first with two Harvard losses and a Union loss to Colgate if Cornell ties RPI and beats Union. (We don't need to sweep if the stars align correctly.)

Don't think so, as we'd both have 31 points and Harvard has the tiebreaker over us.

CU2007

andyw2100

Give My Regards

Cornell:
THIS WEEKEND: Rensselaer, Union.
ON THEIR OWN: Would guarantee third place with two points.
BEST CASE: Climbs to first with a sweep if Union does not beat Colgate and
Harvard gets no more than one point.
WORST CASE: Falls to fourth with two losses if St. Lawrence gets at least
three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Union and St. Lawrence; loses to Harvard.

Unless I am badly mistaken, Cornell also claims first with two Harvard losses and a Union loss to Colgate if Cornell ties RPI and beats Union. (We don't need to sweep if the stars align correctly.)

Don't think so, as we'd both have 31 points and Harvard has the tiebreaker over us.

Two Harvard losses would leave them with 30 points. A tie with RPI and a win over Union would give us 31 points. Union would also have 31 points, but we would win the tie-breaker, as we would then be 2-0 vs. Union.

andyw2100

CU2007

andyw2100

Give My Regards

Cornell:
THIS WEEKEND: Rensselaer, Union.
ON THEIR OWN: Would guarantee third place with two points.
BEST CASE: Climbs to first with a sweep if Union does not beat Colgate and
Harvard gets no more than one point.
WORST CASE: Falls to fourth with two losses if St. Lawrence gets at least
three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Union and St. Lawrence; loses to Harvard.

Unless I am badly mistaken, Cornell also claims first with two Harvard losses and a Union loss to Colgate if Cornell ties RPI and beats Union. (We don't need to sweep if the stars align correctly.)

Don't think so, as we'd both have 31 points and Harvard has the tiebreaker over us.

Two Harvard losses would leave them with 30 points. A tie with RPI and a win over Union would give us 31 points. Union would also have 31 points, but we would win the tie-breaker, as we would then be 2-0 vs. Union.

Yep, you're right. Flipped Union and Harvard's point totals.

Right now:

31 Uni
30 Hvd
28 Cor (really wish we'd held that lead at Potsdam but oh well).

On Friday we root for Cornell (duh), Colgate v Union and Clarkson v Harvard.

Here are the four scenarios


I: Cor W, Uni L, Hvd L:

31 Uni
30 Hvd
30 Cor

leaves us Saturday rooting for Cornell (duh) and SLU v Harvard. A Cornell win and an SLU win or tie and we're first. Yay!

OTOH,

II: Cor W, Uni T, Hvd L:

32 Uni
30 Hvd
30 Cor

leaves us Saturday rooting for Cornell (duh) and SLU v Harvard. A Cornell win and an SLU win or tie and we're first. Yay!

OTOH,

III: Cor W, Uni L, Hvd T:

31 Hvd
31 Uni
30 Cor

leaves us Saturday rooting for Cornell (duh) and SLU v Harvard. A Cornell win and an SLU win and we're first. Yay!

OTOH,

IV: Cor T, Uni L, Hvd L:

31 Uni
30 Hvd
29 Cor

leaves us Saturday rooting for Cornell (duh) and SLU v Harvard. A Cornell win and an SLU win and we're first. Yay!

We're eliminated Friday if (in logical order):

(1) We lose
(2) Union wins
(3) Harvard wins
(4) We tie and Harvard ties

If we can make it through all 4 conditions then we are alive Saturday.

Cornell good. Harvard and Union bad.

Got it.

I'm more concerned with making the NCAA's than getting the 1-seed. If, for instance, U beating Colgate would help our PWR but kill our chances at the 1-seed, I think I'd still rather U win.

Trotsky
(1) We lose
(2) Union wins
(3) Harvard wins
(4) We tie and Harvard ties

If we can make it through all 4 conditions then we are alive Saturday.

So if we don't make it through all 4 conditions, there's no sense in my going to bed Friday night.

Jim Hyla

Trotsky
(1) We lose
(2) Union wins
(3) Harvard wins
(4) We tie and Harvard ties

If we can make it through all 4 conditions then we are alive Saturday.

So if we don't make it through all 4 conditions, there's no sense in my going to bed Friday night.

Well, not if your life depends on us finishing first in the ECAC Regular Season. Which if it does... well, I am not one to judge.

Trotsky

IV: Cor T, Uni L, Hvd L:

31 Uni
30 Hvd
29 Cor

leaves us Saturday rooting for Cornell (duh) and SLU v Harvard. A Cornell win and an SLU win and we're first. Yay!

It was your scenario IV that was not accounted for in Give My Regards' "too much time on my hands" summary post.

lets just win 2 and hope for the best.. firday lets lock up 3rd in a good way. everyone non loss from no on is really just a PWR hedge..

Trotsky

Jim Hyla

Trotsky
(1) We lose
(2) Union wins
(3) Harvard wins
(4) We tie and Harvard ties

If we can make it through all 4 conditions then we are alive Saturday.

So if we don't make it through all 4 conditions, there's no sense in my going to bed Friday night.

Well, not if your life depends on us finishing first in the ECAC Regular Season. Which if it does... well, I am not one to judge.

But how else am I alive?

Jim Hyla

Trotsky

Jim Hyla

Trotsky
(1) We lose
(2) Union wins
(3) Harvard wins
(4) We tie and Harvard ties

If we can make it through all 4 conditions then we are alive Saturday.

So if we don't make it through all 4 conditions, there's no sense in my going to bed Friday night.

Well, not if your life depends on us finishing first in the ECAC Regular Season. Which if it does... well, I am not one to judge.

But how else am I alive?

Clean living? Giving away candy instead of eating it?

Jim Hyla

Trotsky

Jim Hyla

Trotsky
(1) We lose
(2) Union wins
(3) Harvard wins
(4) We tie and Harvard ties

If we can make it through all 4 conditions then we are alive Saturday.

So if we don't make it through all 4 conditions, there's no sense in my going to bed Friday night.

Well, not if your life depends on us finishing first in the ECAC Regular Season. Which if it does... well, I am not one to judge.

But how else am I alive?

I root therefore, I am.

marty

Jim Hyla

Trotsky

Jim Hyla

Trotsky
(1) We lose
(2) Union wins
(3) Harvard wins
(4) We tie and Harvard ties

If we can make it through all 4 conditions then we are alive Saturday.

So if we don't make it through all 4 conditions, there's no sense in my going to bed Friday night.

Well, not if your life depends on us finishing first in the ECAC Regular Season. Which if it does... well, I am not one to judge.

But how else am I alive?

I root therefore, I am.

Faveo ergo sum.