Looking Ahead

While there are three weekends left in the regular season, it seems inevitable that Quinn and Cornell are positioned for a quarterfinal match up.
It is possible that CU could leap frog Harvard in the final standings but not likely. There is a large gap between 5th and 6th place. The big question
is will CU get the first round bye and thus host QU. Looking at Pairwise Standings, that series could have major NCAA ramifications too. This could get very interesting. If nothing else, it's nice to be in the discussion this late in the year.

why is catching not likely? if we win this weekend and they lose to union we are ahead of them this week.

its possible to get to first place this weekend if we do our job at home

Time for.............

ECAC Playoff Possibilities Stuff

I PM'd jtw and hopefully he's got the time to put it up.

Please...........

Qpac is probably going to finish 5th, but I'd argue Cornell is more likely than not to finish SOMEWHERE other than 4th.

Would be nice to have one of these NHL simulations that gives probability for each playoff seeding.

[www.sportsclubstats.com]

First time I've looked at sportsclubstats. Rather cool. Perhaps I am expecting that the top teams will continue to win at the pace we will.
The best part is we play both St Lawrence and Union again so much will depend of that. Unfortunately, Harvard has the tie breaker with us based
on head to head. In actuality, it may be more likely to catch either the Saints or the Dutchmen. I do still think Quin is locked into 5th unless we falter in which case all bets are off. To me, half of the fun is trying to figure things out and checking out bracketology from week to week.

You're welcome, everyone:

[playoffstatus.com]

See also: [playoffstatus.com]

I think its fun just looking at how close this finish might be.

I think Harvard wins
union splits
STL wins this weekend
and we hope Cornell sweeps

STL 27
Union 27
Harvard 26
Cornell 26

Quin 23

then a gap.

Yale 17
clarkson 16

but if that STL ties Prince and Union ties Dart
its a 4 way tie..

that would a lot of fun those last 2 weekends. Im sure its not that hard to find a way for a 5 way tie at the end. we really need to find a way to win these last 4 home games and last night was a good start

LGR14
You're welcome, everyone:

[playoffstatus.com]

See also: [playoffstatus.com]

wow, awesome. Thanks for this.

LGR14
You're welcome, everyone:

[playoffstatus.com]

See also: [playoffstatus.com]

This may be my favorite part of the end of the season other than the games themselves.

THANK YOU!

The PWR is way out of whack with USCHO and CHN. What am I missing?

LGR14
You're welcome, everyone:

[playoffstatus.com]

See also: [playoffstatus.com]

Very nice. Certainly doesn't feel like we're 86% to get a bye and 70% to make the NCAAs...

BearLover

LGR14
You're welcome, everyone:

[playoffstatus.com]

See also: [playoffstatus.com]

Very nice. Certainly doesn't feel like we're 86% to get a bye and 70% to make the NCAAs...

And if we win out, we'd be a 2-seed, at worst!

upprdeck
I think its fun just looking at how close this finish might be.
…
that would a lot of fun those last 2 weekends. Im sure its not that hard to find a way for a 5 way tie at the end. we really need to find a way to win these last 4 home games and last night was a good start

Right now, this is all looking like a replay of 1996, with Quinnipiac in the role of Colgate, Union in the role of Vermont, and Harvard and Clarkson reversed.

Hopefully, it all ends up rhyming, even though I'd be perfectly happy to avoid a series with Quinnipiac.

Jim Hyla
Time for.............

ECAC Playoff Possibilities Stuff

I PM'd jtw and hopefully he's got the time to put it up.

Please...........

It should go live on Monday. Sunday games confuse it, and I don't have time to look into modifying the hack I introduced in 2000 when Bob Gaudet's hissy fit resulted in some Saturday games being moved to Sunday. (IIRC, that doesn't handle situations where a team plays both Saturday and Sunday in a given weekend.)

jtwcornell91

Jim Hyla
Time for.............

ECAC Playoff Possibilities Stuff

I PM'd jtw and hopefully he's got the time to put it up.

Please...........

It should go live on Monday. Sunday games confuse it, and I don't have time to look into modifying the hack I introduced in 2000 when Bob Gaudet's hissy fit resulted in some Saturday games being moved to Sunday. (IIRC, that doesn't handle situations where a team plays both Saturday and Sunday in a given weekend.)

Thanks, it's always a lot of fun.

Obviously getting a bye is our biggest concern, but finishing 3rd instead of 4th and thereby dodging Q would also be big.

BearLover
Obviously getting a bye is our biggest concern, but finishing 3rd instead of 4th and thereby dodging Q would also be big.

It would also mean avoiding 1 in the SF, and with this logjam the 1 is likely the team that gets very hot late.

Of course, the ideal solution is to be that team.

Trotsky

BearLover
Obviously getting a bye is our biggest concern, but finishing 3rd instead of 4th and thereby dodging Q would also be big.

It would also mean avoiding 1 in the SF, and with this logjam the 1 is likely the team that gets very hot late.

Of course, the ideal solution is to be that team.

...and we come full circle to "Just win, baby"

Trotsky

BearLover
Obviously getting a bye is our biggest concern, but finishing 3rd instead of 4th and thereby dodging Q would also be big.

It would also mean avoiding 1 in the SF, and with this logjam the 1 is likely the team that gets very hot late.

Of course, the ideal solution is to be that team.

Well, currently U looks more likely to finish first than H, and I definitely fear H more than any other ECAC team. (I also don't believe in momentum in sports.)

This is a great tool.

Jim Hyla
Time for.............

ECAC Playoff Possibilities Stuff

I PM'd jtw and hopefully he's got the time to put it up.

Please...........

Have at it:

[www.elynah.com]
[www.elynah.com]

PM with bug reports, please!

jtwcornell91
Have at it

Case 00: Pessimism: Cornell 1-3 (only win v RPI) and all the rest of the results were decided as follows: split the league into top 5 bottom 7, top always beats bottom, in intragroup home always wins. Result:

5. Cornell 27 pts (lose tiebreaker vs Q)


Case 01: Determinism: Case 00 but give Cornell the wins against Clarkson and Union so the top/bottom rules are universal

3. Cornell 31 pts (win tiebreaker vs SLU)


Case 02: Optimism: Case 00 plus Cornell sweep

2. Cornell 33 pts (win tiebreaker vs Union)


Case 03: Optimism and Screw Harvard: Case 02 plus SLU beats Harvard

1. Cornell 33 pts (win tiebreaker vs Union)

Trotsky

jtwcornell91
Have at it

Case 00: Pessimism: Cornell 1-3 (only win v RPI) and all the rest of the results were decided as follows: split the league into top 5 bottom 7, top always beats bottom, in intragroup home always wins. Result:

5. Cornell 27 pts (lose tiebreaker vs Q)


Case 01: Determinism: Case 00 but give Cornell the wins against Clarkson and Union so the top/bottom rules are universal

3. Cornell 31 pts (win tiebreaker vs SLU)


Case 02: Optimism: Case 00 plus Cornell sweep

2. Cornell 33 pts (win tiebreaker vs Union)


Case 03: Optimism and Screw Harvard: Case 02 plus SLU beats Harvard

1. Cornell 33 pts (win tiebreaker vs Union)

And you basically reaffirmed Playoff Status, Cornell.

So as they say, let's just win.

From USCHO:

[www.uscho.com]

marty
From USCHO:

[www.uscho.com]

Freshman forward, who has played in fewer than half their games, only 1 point on the season. Not an impactful loss for them.

Northeastern currently leads Boston College 2-1 in the 3rd of the Beanpot consy. Could have interesting PWR implications, though maybe not beyond taking BC out of their "tie" with us.

EDIT: Just like that, it's tied up.

Beeeej
Northeastern currently leads Boston College 2-1 in the 3rd of the Beanpot consy. Could have interesting PWR implications, though maybe not beyond taking BC out of their "tie" with us.

BC ties at 2; 6 min left

Looks like Northeastern pulled it out, 4-2 final.

What are the PWR implications of the Harvard v. BU game?

GBR1234
What are the PWR implications of the Harvard v. BU game?

A Harvard win helps a little bit but probably not enough to move to 12th. A BU win knocks CU back to 14th.

LGR14

GBR1234
What are the PWR implications of the Harvard v. BU game?

A Harvard win helps a little bit but probably not enough to move to 12th. A BU win knocks CU back to 14th.

Are you certain of that? It's the BC/Providence comparison that BC upsets to tie us. We beat them with a decent chunk of RPI edge. Not sure that'd flip.

Dafatone

LGR14

GBR1234
What are the PWR implications of the Harvard v. BU game?

A Harvard win helps a little bit but probably not enough to move to 12th. A BU win knocks CU back to 14th.

Are you certain of that? It's the BC/Providence comparison that BC upsets to tie us. We beat them with a decent chunk of RPI edge. Not sure that'd flip.

Harvard win is good for a .5496 RPI. A BU win would drop us to a .5482 RPI. But you're right, a BU win doesn't knock us back to 14th anymore after the loss from earlier. For what it's worth, BC would sit at .5432 with a BU victory.

Rk Team PCWs RPI Rk QWB-† W-L-T Win % Wgtd Win % - ‡
1 Minnesota-Duluth 59 .6078 1 .0137 18-5-5 .7321 .7133
2 Denver 58 .5995 2 .0107 20-6-4 .7333 .7260
3 Harvard 57 .5816 3 .0055 18-5-2 .7600 .7797
4 Minnesota 56 .5691 4 .0044 18-8-2 .6786 .6889
5 Boston University 55 .5673 5 .0071 19-9-2 .6667 .6783
6 Penn State 54 .5654 6 .0009 18-6-2 .7308 .7190
7 Western Michigan 53 .5653 7 .0061 16-8-4 .6429 .6439
8 Providence 51 .5581 8 .0055 18-8-4 .6667 .6599
9 Mass.-Lowell 51 .5575 9 .0039 19-9-3 .6613 .6667
10 North Dakota 50 .5550 10 .0074 15-11-3 .5690 .5479
11 Union 49 .5533 11 .0025 20-8-2 .7000 .7152
12 St. Cloud State 48 .5507 12 .0094 15-14-1 .5167 .5200
13 Cornell 47 .5496 13 .0014 16-6-3 .7000 .6953
14 Boston College 47 .5422 14 .0037 18-12-2 .5938 .6031
15 Ohio State 45 .5421 15 .0085 14-8-6 .6071 .6088
16 Vermont 44 .5408 16 .0033 17-10-3 .6167 .6069
17 Nebraska-Omaha 43 .5400 17 .0034 15-12-5 .5469 .5422
18 Notre Dame 42 .5397 18 .0046 17-9-4 .6333 .6096
19 St. Lawrence 41 .5382 19 .0037 15-9-6 .6000 .6143
20 Air Force 40 .5375 20 .0012 19-8-5 .6719 .6844

Rk	Team	       PCWs	 RPI	Rk	 QWB  	 W- L-T	  Win %	  Wgtd Win % 
 9	Mass.-Lowell	51	.5575	 9	.0039	19- 9-3	  .6613	    .6667
10	North Dakota	50	.5550	10	.0074	15-11-3	  .5690	    .5479
11	Union	        49	.5533	11	.0025	20- 8-2	  .7000     .7152
12	St. Cloud State	48	.5507	12	.0094	15-14-1	  .5167	    .5200
13	Cornell	        47	.5496	13	.0014	16- 6-3	  .7000	    .6953
14	Boston College	47	.5422	14	.0037	18-12-2	  .5938	    .6031

Nearly as close to 9 as to 14.

Trotsky


Nearly as close to 9 as to 14.

How so? I Don't see it

abmarks

Trotsky


Nearly as close to 9 as to 14.

How so? I Don't see it

.0074 above 14.
.0079 below 9.

andyw2100

abmarks

Trotsky


Nearly as close to 9 as to 14.

How so? I Don't see it

.0074 above 14.
.0079 below 9.

It actually could be slightly closer (or further apart) because when you subtract numbers with four-figure accuracy, the difference calculated could be off by one in the fourth place.

ursusminor

andyw2100

abmarks

Trotsky


Nearly as close to 9 as to 14.

How so? I Don't see it

.0074 above 14.
.0079 below 9.

It actually could be slightly closer (or further apart) because when you subtract numbers with four-figure accuracy, the difference calculated could be off by one in the fourth place.

picky, picky, picky

Jim Hyla

ursusminor

andyw2100

abmarks

Trotsky


Nearly as close to 9 as to 14.

How so? I Don't see it

.0074 above 14.
.0079 below 9.

It actually could be slightly closer (or further apart) because when you subtract numbers with four-figure accuracy, the difference calculated could be off by one in the fourth place.

picky, picky, picky

But the numbers are only measured to 4-digits precision. So if we round off to 3 digits, using standard conventions, we get Cornell with .550, UML with .558, and BC with .542. So we're .008 away from both #9 & #14.

Trotsky

Rk	Team	       PCWs	 RPI	Rk	 QWB  	 W- L-T	  Win %	  Wgtd Win % 
 9	Mass.-Lowell	51	.5575	 9	.0039	19- 9-3	  .6613	    .6667
10	North Dakota	50	.5550	10	.0074	15-11-3	  .5690	    .5479
11	Union	        49	.5533	11	.0025	20- 8-2	  .7000     .7152
12	St. Cloud State	48	.5507	12	.0094	15-14-1	  .5167	    .5200
13	Cornell	        47	.5496	13	.0014	16- 6-3	  .7000	    .6953
14	Boston College	47	.5422	14	.0037	18-12-2	  .5938	    .6031

Nearly as close to 9 as to 14.

It should be noted that we are in a more vulnerable position than the teams around us. 25% of RPI is based upon a team's winning percentage, and since we're at .700, a loss knocks more points off our percentage than it does for the teams with lesser win percentages (and more than Union, also at .700, since Union's played more games). We go 5 and 3 the rest of the way and our RPI goes down, while BC's goes up with the same 5 and 3 for them. I'm making the assumption here that the other RPI factors don't change all that much the rest of the way, but the most significant shifts at this point in the season will be come from teams' own wins and losses. I'm also ignoring the home/road factors for simplification though I'm aware of them.

With two weeks remaining in the regular season and all teams having four games left, and with the top four teams all within two point in the ECAC standings, it seems quite possible that at the end, some teams will be tied with the same total points. I'm looking for some clarity on tie breaking procedures. Obviously head to head is the first
deciding factor and I suspect total wins might be next ( one win being better than two ties} but after that I'm pretty clueless on the protocol. Anyone know the list in terms of importance right up to a flip of a coin?

wakester2468
With two weeks remaining in the regular season and all teams having four games left, and with the top four teams all within two point in the ECAC standings, it seems quite possible that at the end, some teams will be tied with the same total points. I'm looking for some clarity on tie breaking procedures. Obviously head to head is the first
deciding factor and I suspect total wins might be next ( one win being better than two ties} but after that I'm pretty clueless on the protocol. Anyone know the list in terms of importance right up to a flip of a coin?

Look!

Presumably it is still possible to have a 4-way tie for first.

Trotsky
Presumably it is still possible to have a 4-way tie for first.

Yes, there are several paths, although of course at least one tie is required. Here's one that involves the current top 4 winning all but one game against teams 5-12 (the one exception being a Union draw, potentially vs. QC):

Cornell and SLU tie, Cornell beats Clarkson, Union, and RPI.
SLU beats Harvard, Brown, and Colgate.
Harvard beats Clarkson, Yale, and Brown
Union goes 2-0-1 against Colgate, QC, and Princeton

Here's one with just one tie, but it requires either Brown or Colgate to beat SLU and Cornell plus one other (QC most likely) to beat Union:

SLU beats Cornell and Harvard and splits with Brown and Colgate
Cornell beats Union, Clarkson, and RPI
Harvard goes 2-0-1 against Clarkson, Yale, and Brown
Union goes 2-1-0 against Colgate, QC, and Princeton

And with that, I have wasted enough time at work.

In a game to potentially watch tonight, PWR 8 Lowell is at BC.

Trotsky
In a game to potentially watch tonight, PWR 8 Lowell is at BC.

Also Miami at UMD.

Jim Hyla

Trotsky
In a game to potentially watch tonight, PWR 8 Lowell is at BC.

Also Miami at UMD.

U Mass Lowell beat BC, and we seem to now be 9th in the pairwise.

Also Miami has tied Minnesota Duluth at 3. Roughly 9 minutes remaining in the third. Free audio here: [network1sports.com]

Edit: Minnesota Duluth homer announcer flipping out about the officiating!

Edit 2 - UMD scored on a powerplay, with 1:24 left.

Edit 3: It ends 4-3 UMD over Miami. I wonder how much we would have been helped by a Miami win or tie. Oh well.

Every game seems to be more important than the previous one. While an initial goal of getting a first round bye has been achieved, Pairwise rankings sure doesn't allow for a let down in any game. The Union game, although not affecting Cornell's final positioning in ECAC standings is of vital importance. A win most likely will give us a good chance of an at large bid in the NCAA's if we don't get the automatic bid by winning at Lake Placid. Harvard is on a roll winning the Beanpot and playing as well as anyone in the country.
Without getting too far ahead of things, with a win against Union and a Harvard victory over Clarkson, we secure the 2nd seed thus if things work out in the playoffs according to
seeding, we would play Union rather than Harvard in the semis at Lake Placid. Granted that's looking a ways down the road but Union is a much more desirable opponent. It is possible that we might need to win that semifinal in Lake Placid to get a birth in the NCAA tourney. To me, this makes tonight's game against U the most important of the year.

wakester2468
Harvard is on a roll winning the Beanpot and playing as well as anyone in the country.
Without getting too far ahead of things, with a win against Union and a Harvard victory over Clarkson, we secure the 2nd seed thus if things work out in the playoffs according to
seeding, we would play Union rather than Harvard in the semis at Lake Placid.

Not sure what you are talking about. We can finish no higher or lower than third, no matter what happens tonight.

Our game will have an impact on the 1-2 spots. If we beat Union, and Harvard wins as well (or if other scenarios involving ties play out) we will, as you suggest, face Union instead of Harvard in Lake Placid if the playoff results hold, but it will be as a three-seed, playing Union as a two-seed.

Oh, and Harvard plays Saint Lawrence tonight, not Clarkson.

I have posted rather erroneous posts here on occasions but this last one might be the worst. You are right about not finishing any place but 3rd and the face Harvard plays
St Lawrence tonight. The point I was trying to make although with bogus facts is that it is preferable in my opinion to have Harvard finish ahead of Harvard thus requiring us
to defeat Union tonight. Let's try this again. It help us Pairwise with Union and eliminates a potential semi final match up with Harvard at Lake Placid. Think i will leave it at that.

wakester2468
The point I was trying to make although with bogus facts is that it is preferable in my opinion to have Harvard finish ahead of Harvard thus requiring us
to defeat Union tonight.

But what happens if Harvard finishes behind Harvard?

Damn, I need to get rid of this decaf and go to the leaded stuff.

andyw2100

wakester2468
The point I was trying to make although with bogus facts is that it is preferable in my opinion to have Harvard finish ahead of Harvard thus requiring us
to defeat Union tonight.

But what happens if Harvard finishes behind Harvard?

Then Harvard is pulling Harvard back. In other words, Harvard sucks.

That is one thing to agree on and I'm sure I'm right about.

PWR changes so much this late.

But one thing we know is that in the NCHC St cloud or ND will go backwards since the likely play each other, one is losing 2 games
in Hockey east good chance that BU/prov play and hurt one of them with 2 losses, also could have ND/Vermont give someone 2 losses

thats 3 teams around us in the bubble that will get 2 losses and if we take care of business tonight and the first round we can only take one.. thats about all we can control

then it comes down to imploding leagues beyond the 2 likely non PWR qualifiers

All good points. Think I will leave the stats and facts to others for awhile. They always seem to get in the way of my opinions.

wakester2468
All good points. Think I will leave the stats and facts to others for awhile. They always seem to get in the way of my opinions.

That is the great weakness of evidence.

wakester2468
Damn, I need to get rid of this decaf and go to the leaded stuff.

There's also that preview link. Proofreading does help.

To fearmonger, I could see the lack of a lake placid consolation game being our downfall. Or union's, for that matter.

The way I see it, the loser of today's game probably needs to win one in lake placid. A consolation game would help.

i think if we win tonight , the lack of game is good, if we lose tonight and get to the semis and lose then its bad.

Significant improvement over last year in ECAC RS G/GP (with rounding).

Cornell needs 3 goals tonight to average 3.2. Under Schafer we have done that 7 times: 96, 97, 00, 02, 03, 05, 10. In 5 of those 7 seasons we went on to win the ECAC Tournament.