NCAA Tournament Possibilities

The season might not be over…

That's wins by all higher seeds except for a win by Michigan in the B1G. Denver must beat Minnesota-Duluth in the NCHC consolation.

Currently 13% of scenarios:

Cornell is the only team outside of top 15 still with an at-large NCAA bid possibility. [t.co]

— College Hockey News (@chnews) March 13, 2016

We're still alive!

That's awkward. Does Schafer hold regular practices for another week?

It looks like the scenarios that get us there are basically: Michigan wins the Big Ten, UMD loses both the semi and consolation, Michigan Tech wins its tournament or loses its semi, and neither Dartmouth or St. Lawrence win the ECAC. Obviously I haven't run them all, but if anyone has some examples of where the above doesn't work for us or where something else does get us in, let us all know.

jkahn
It looks like the scenarios that get us there are basically: Michigan wins the Big Ten, UMD loses both the semi and consolation, Michigan Tech wins its tournament or loses its semi, and neither Dartmouth or St. Lawrence win the ECAC. Obviously I haven't run them all, but if anyone has some examples of where the above doesn't work for us or where something else does get us in, let us all know.

I think I'd rather just look at the SI swimsuit issue.

i had mass lowell/northeastern win and it knocked us out if mich tech does not win

root for bc/prov.. quin/harv. 2 UMD losses and mich tech..

basically chalk.

upprdeck
i had mass lowell/northeastern win and it knocked us out if mich tech does not win

root for bc/prov.. quin/harv. 2 UMD losses and mich tech..

basically chalk.

So you mean I have to root for Q and H and BC? Talk about a bitter pill to swallow.

It's funny but I have no issue with Q. Yeah, they're basically a diploma mill for kids who didn't get into Colgate, and yeah Pecknold is an ass, but I doubt we lose many prospects to them the way we likely do to HYP, and they do the job out of conference which lifts all boats, as opposed to the Crimson's perpetual lock on the Beanpot consolation game. And they have decent uniforms. I much prefer Q to, say, Union.

mich tech or minn st winning we can get in.

i found that if minn loses to MSU, Minn duluth can win game one. but only if prov wins HE
but if Minn Duluth loses twice we have many ways to get in.
couldnt find a way for Duluth to win game 2 and we get in.

not sure if Minn Duluth tie does something as it never sticks to tell if it took but i think its bad for us

even found several ways to get us to 14 and we dont need Quin to win for that

really root for minn and minn duluth to lose game and many ways open up

On the USCHO ECAC thread there is a claim that there is a scenario where Dartmouth wins it all and we still get in (giving the ECAC five slots). Can anybody confirm this?

Trotsky
On the USCHO ECAC thread there is a claim that there is a scenario where Dartmouth wins it all and we still get in (giving the ECAC five slots). Can anybody confirm this?

Yes, here. We end up tied with Dartmouth at 14.

It only works if they beat Harvard in finals, not if it's SLU.

And it still looks like Minn-Duluth needs 2 losses. Also Mich Tech either needs to win it all, or lose in semis. If they lose in finals, their RPI is too high for us.

So Harvard needs to win semis, Minn-Duluth needs 2 loses, and Mich Tech lose in semis or win it all. Maybe there are more options?

Jim Hyla

Trotsky
On the USCHO ECAC thread there is a claim that there is a scenario where Dartmouth wins it all and we still get in (giving the ECAC five slots). Can anybody confirm this?

Yes, here. We end up tied with Dartmouth at 14.

It only works if they beat Harvard in finals, not if it's SLU.

And it still looks like Minn-Duluth needs 2 losses. Also Mich Tech either needs to win it all, or lose in semis. If they lose in finals, their RPI is too high for us.

So Harvard needs to win semis, Minn-Duluth needs 2 loses, and Mich Tech lose in semis or win it all. Maybe there are more options?

and just flipping the BC-Providence result to have BC winning in the "Dartmouth scenario" above causes Northeastern to jump over us and knock us out.

jkahn
It looks like the scenarios that get us there are basically: Michigan wins the Big Ten, UMD loses both the semi and consolation, Michigan Tech wins its tournament or loses its semi, and neither Dartmouth or St. Lawrence win the ECAC. Obviously I haven't run them all, but if anyone has some examples of where the above doesn't work for us or where something else does get us in, let us all know.

Or we could've just won one or two more RS games.

billhoward

Or we could've just won one or two more RS games.

I don't like that defeatist attitude. It's not over yet. Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

nshapiro

billhoward

Or we could've just won one or two more RS games.

I don't like that defeatist attitude. It's not over yet. Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

Forget it, he's rolling!

+1

Since I don't have the time to run some 3,000,000 combinations, can anyone give me a cheat sheet for tonight? I know that Michigan winning the B1G is crucial, but do either of tonight's games affect us much? I actually get to watch them in HD, so I'd like to know my rooting interests.

mich needs to win the b10 other than i'm not sure any early games matter, but Minn losing earlier than the finals may help abit.

Greenberg '97
Since I don't have the time to run some 3,000,000 combinations, can anyone give me a cheat sheet for tonight? I know that Michigan winning the B1G is crucial, but do either of tonight's games affect us much? I actually get to watch them in HD, so I'd like to know my rooting interests.

Simplist is Michigan wins B1G, Mich Tech wins WCHA, & Minn-Duluth gets 2 losses. Many others have been outlined in prior posts. I don't think the B1G play-in games mean much, other than trying to make it easier for Mich and harder for Minny, who is probably Mich's biggest threat. But Wisc over Penn St would probably be easier for Mich.

OSU winning and st cloud winning next game and prov winning it all gets us in even if Minn-dul win a game and it can be either one.

still need mich though

the B10 schedule confuses me.. they have 3-6 playin day, then an off day then play back to back semi/final. this way you reward the 3-6 game winner an off day to recover before playing the teams with the Bye. wouldnt it make more sense to play the first night then come back and play the 2nd night so the bye teams get some reward of a somewhat tired winner, and then since you dont want teams playing 3 days in a row have an off night and then a final with teams rested?

upprdeck
the B10 schedule confuses me.. they have 3-6 playin day, then an off day then play back to back semi/final. this way you reward the 3-6 game winner an off day to recover before playing the teams with the Bye. wouldnt it make more sense to play the first night then come back and play the 2nd night so the bye teams get some reward of a somewhat tired winner, and then since you dont want teams playing 3 days in a row have an off night and then a final with teams rested?

I'm not sure what you mean.

The 3-6 games were yesterday--Thursday. The semis are today--Friday. The finals are tomorrow--Saturday. There is no off day.

[www.collegehockeynews.com]

Collecting the rooting interests for the Friday games:

04:00 Dartmouth v Q
04:00 BGSU v Mankato: no preference
05:00 Army v RMU: no preference
05:00 Minn-Duluth v NoDak
05:00 Penn State v Michigan
05:00 Lowell v Providence
07:00 Ferris v Michigan Tech
07:30 SLU v Harvard: Harvard
08:00 Northeastern v BC
08:30 RIT v Air Force: no preference
08:30 Ohio State v Minnesota
08:30 Denver v St. Cloud

Please correct if needed.

I trust that people have run the numbers but how does MTU, who is just ahead of is in PWR, beating Ferris help us?.

Also there are some mistakes on starting times but I don't want to correct them myself.

ugarte
I trust that people have run the numbers but how does MTU, who is just ahead of is in PWR, beating Ferris help us?

My guess is it's the only way to ensure MTU doesn't steal an at large by remaining ahead of us. If they lose but stay ahead of us then the WCHA gets the auto and we lose a slot to MTU. Give the auto to MTU and the problem goes away.

Times fixed; thanks.

Rooting for North Dakota feels particularly gross, but you gotta do what you gotta do.

Dafatone
Rooting for North Dakota feels particularly gross, but you gotta do what you gotta do.

So does Q & Harvard, but...

Trotsky

ugarte
I trust that people have run the numbers but how does MTU, who is just ahead of is in PWR, beating Ferris help us?

My guess is it's the only way to ensure MTU doesn't steal an at large by remaining ahead of us. If they lose but stay ahead of us then the WCHA gets the auto and we lose a slot to MTU. Give the auto to MTU and the problem goes away.

Times fixed; thanks.

Ah, so we need them to win all the way through. *tugs collar*

Jim Hyla

Dafatone
Rooting for North Dakota feels particularly gross, but you gotta do what you gotta do.

So does Q & Harvard, but...

Given our five games against them, Q's success is so good for our RPI that I can kinda hold my nose and do it.

North Dakota is a special case. I somehow live in South Dakota, so that's also a factor.

ugarte

Trotsky

ugarte
I trust that people have run the numbers but how does MTU, who is just ahead of is in PWR, beating Ferris help us?

My guess is it's the only way to ensure MTU doesn't steal an at large by remaining ahead of us. If they lose but stay ahead of us then the WCHA gets the auto and we lose a slot to MTU. Give the auto to MTU and the problem goes away.

Times fixed; thanks.

Ah, so we need them to win all the way through. *tugs collar*

Michigan too.

We might have wanted to have won a couple more games...

Jim Hyla

Dafatone
Rooting for North Dakota feels particularly gross, but you gotta do what you gotta do.

So does Q & Harvard, but...

Can't we just root for one or the other?

Trotsky

ugarte

Trotsky

ugarte
I trust that people have run the numbers but how does MTU, who is just ahead of is in PWR, beating Ferris help us?

My guess is it's the only way to ensure MTU doesn't steal an at large by remaining ahead of us. If they lose but stay ahead of us then the WCHA gets the auto and we lose a slot to MTU. Give the auto to MTU and the problem goes away.

Times fixed; thanks.

Ah, so we need them to win all the way through. *tugs collar*

Michigan too.

We might have wanted to have won a couple more games...

Or tied a couple more.

Trotsky

ugarte

Trotsky

ugarte
I trust that people have run the numbers but how does MTU, who is just ahead of is in PWR, beating Ferris help us?

My guess is it's the only way to ensure MTU doesn't steal an at large by remaining ahead of us. If they lose but stay ahead of us then the WCHA gets the auto and we lose a slot to MTU. Give the auto to MTU and the problem goes away.

Times fixed; thanks.

Ah, so we need them to win all the way through. *tugs collar*

Michigan too.

We might have wanted to have won a couple more games...

Really? but it's so much more exciting to try to back into the tournament this way...

KeithK

Trotsky

ugarte

Trotsky

ugarte
I trust that people have run the numbers but how does MTU, who is just ahead of is in PWR, beating Ferris help us?

My guess is it's the only way to ensure MTU doesn't steal an at large by remaining ahead of us. If they lose but stay ahead of us then the WCHA gets the auto and we lose a slot to MTU. Give the auto to MTU and the problem goes away.

Times fixed; thanks.

Ah, so we need them to win all the way through. *tugs collar*

Michigan too.

We might have wanted to have won a couple more games...

Really? but it's so much more exciting to try to back into the tournament this way...

Ha. Another loss or two and we would be out for sure. Had we not scored in the final seconds to push Brown to OT (ew), we might be done. The what if game can go both ways.

Trotsky
Collecting the rooting interests for the Friday games:

04:00 Dartmouth v Q
04:00 BGSU v Mankato: no preference
05:00 Army v RMU: no preference
05:00 Minn-Duluth v NoDak
05:00 Penn State v Michigan
05:00 Lowell v Providence
07:00 Ferris v Michigan Tech
07:30 SLU v Harvard: Harvard
08:00 Northeastern v BC
08:30 RIT v Air Force: no preference
08:30 Ohio State v Minnesota
08:30 Denver v St. Cloud

Please correct if needed.

Q, NoDak, Michigan, Providence all with early leads.

Q up 3-zip late, so that one looks good.

Q beats Dartmouth 3-1. That's good.

Michigan 5 Penn State 1 late second. That's good.

Minn-Duluth leads North Dakota 3-2 late second. That's real bad.

Duluth by two with about five to go.

PU & UML in OT. If both PU & UND lose, can we still get in, or can I start rooting for SLU.

Jim Hyla
PU & UML in OT. If both PU & UND lose, can we still get in, or can I start rooting for SLU.

I thought providence winning helped. Did that change when Duluth won?

Providence vs. UMass free video feed here:

[stream.nbcsports.com]

Chris '03

Jim Hyla
PU & UML in OT. If both PU & UND lose, can we still get in, or can I start rooting for SLU.

I thought providence winning helped. Did that change when Duluth won?

PU winning helps, but they're in OT.

I did find a way for us to get in.

Redundant post, sorry

andyw2100
Providence vs. UMass free video feed here:

[stream.nbcsports.com]

End of second OT. Third OT should start at about 9:15 PM eastern time.

UMass wins near the end of the third OT..

THIS game I can watch on TV, NBCSN......

3 college games on in the DC area, amazing.

Guess which one isn't...

Mich Tech lost, but if Ferris St can win tomorrow, we still have a chance.

Gophers up three in waning minutes. That's all she wrote?

Chris '03
Gophers up three in waning minutes. That's all she wrote?

I can still get us in with Michigan winning.

Edit: using USCHO's tool. With the CHN run linked above, there's no % listed.

Jim Hyla
Mich Tech lost, but if Ferris St can win tomorrow, we still have a chance.

Ferris won.

Northeastern by a goal at the end of the second.

If that score holds, that's gotta be the proverbial fork. Anyone able to prove me wrong?

Northeastern did win. Stupid BC can't even win when they're supposed to.

Ironically we moved up to 15. There are two autos below us: AHA and WCHA, so we need to get to 14. I can't find a way to get us over Northeastern.

Mistah Kurtz -- he dead.

Trotsky
Northeastern did win. Stupid BC can't even win when they're supposed to.

Strange season for Northeastern--the polar opposite of Cornell's. Started the year 2-12-3, since then 19-1-2 going into the Hockey East championship game tonight. Working on a 12-game winning streak now.

Al DeFlorio

Trotsky
Northeastern did win. Stupid BC can't even win when they're supposed to.

Strange season for Northeastern--the polar opposite of Cornell's. Started the year 2-12-3, since then 19-1-2 going into the Hockey East championship game tonight. Working on a 12-game winning streak now.

Sounds like good coaching to me. Improvement over the season is one of the main things I look for in a coach.

Swampy
Sounds like good coaching to me. Improvement over the season is one of the main things I look for in a coach.

TBRW uses record in first half of ECAC season v second half as one factor in Predictions, so I have the data. Sometime I will compile it and see if there are any trends by school or coach.

Trotsky

Swampy
Sounds like good coaching to me. Improvement over the season is one of the main things I look for in a coach.

TBRW uses record in first half of ECAC season v second half as one factor in Predictions, so I have the data. Sometime I will compile it and see if there are any trends by school or coach.

I predict RPI will show a negative season progression under the Fridge and in many seasons since his booting.

That is what makes the current Cornell season a bitter pill. I don't remember this type of crash in seasons since Coach took over in '95-'96.

Swampy

Al DeFlorio

Trotsky
Northeastern did win. Stupid BC can't even win when they're supposed to.

Strange season for Northeastern--the polar opposite of Cornell's. Started the year 2-12-3, since then 19-1-2 going into the Hockey East championship game tonight. Working on a 12-game winning streak now.

Sounds like good coaching to me. Improvement over the season is one of the main things I look for in a coach.

Hmmmm.. And I am condemned for suggesting that Schafer should go....Interesting......

redice

Swampy

Al DeFlorio

Trotsky
Northeastern did win. Stupid BC can't even win when they're supposed to.

Strange season for Northeastern--the polar opposite of Cornell's. Started the year 2-12-3, since then 19-1-2 going into the Hockey East championship game tonight. Working on a 12-game winning streak now.

Sounds like good coaching to me. Improvement over the season is one of the main things I look for in a coach.

Hmmmm.. And I am condemned for suggesting that Schafer should go....Interesting......

Relax. He's just being a little more subtle so it's easier to not react. (And I don't think we're condemning you, just reacting to how strident you've been at times.)

KeithK

redice

Swampy

Al DeFlorio

Trotsky
Northeastern did win. Stupid BC can't even win when they're supposed to.

Strange season for Northeastern--the polar opposite of Cornell's. Started the year 2-12-3, since then 19-1-2 going into the Hockey East championship game tonight. Working on a 12-game winning streak now.

Sounds like good coaching to me. Improvement over the season is one of the main things I look for in a coach.

Hmmmm.. And I am condemned for suggesting that Schafer should go....Interesting......

Relax. He's just being a little more subtle so it's easier to not react. (And I don't think we're condemning you, just reacting to how strident you've been at times.)

Usually, perception is reality, Keith... In most cases, if I post something on this forum, I'm either ignored or my thoughts are condemned.....

You call me strident..... I admit that I don't "mince words". But, is that any reason to be in attack mode when I post (or am not being ignored)?...I think not..

marty

Trotsky

Swampy
Sounds like good coaching to me. Improvement over the season is one of the main things I look for in a coach.

TBRW uses record in first half of ECAC season v second half as one factor in Predictions, so I have the data. Sometime I will compile it and see if there are any trends by school or coach.

I predict RPI will show a negative season progression under the Fridge and in many seasons since his booting.

That is what makes the current Cornell season a bitter pill. I don't remember this type of crash in seasons since Coach took over in '95-'96.

I mean it wasn't really surprising. We were never playing good hockey, just lucky hockey.

Lucky or not, Cornell deserves better. After crushing losses in the NCAAs every year, it seems our new thing is to miss the NCAAs by one game: just as in 2014, Cornell is the highest-ranked team to miss.

Hope Yale and Q and Harvard lose 15-0 in the first round.

BearLover
Lucky or not, Cornell deserves better. After crushing losses in the NCAAs every year, it seems our new thing is to miss the NCAAs by one game: just as in 2014, Cornell is the highest-ranked team to miss.

Hope Yale and Q and Harvard lose 15-0 in the first round.

I hope Harvard and Qpuke both lose tonight too.

Michigan wins the Big Ten, which clinches an NCAA bid for Yale. Had Minnesota and UMD won, Yale would have been eliminated. UMD currently trsils 2-1, make that 3-1 St. Cloud just scored as I was typing this.

redice
Usually, perception is reality, Keith... In most cases, if I post something on this forum, I'm either ignored or my thoughts are condemned.....

You call me strident..... I admit that I don't "mince words". But, is that any reason to be in attack mode when I post (or am not being ignored)?...I think not..

It's easy to slip into attack mode on the internet, especially if you don't have a face to put with the handle you're responding to. That doesn't make it right and I try to avoid it myself (some are better at it than others). It does help to think about your perception though to control your reality because things aren't always what they first seem. that said, i can see how you feel like you've been attacked and if I've ever been responsible for that I'm sorry.

KeithK

redice
Usually, perception is reality, Keith... In most cases, if I post something on this forum, I'm either ignored or my thoughts are condemned.....

You call me strident..... I admit that I don't "mince words". But, is that any reason to be in attack mode when I post (or am not being ignored)?...I think not..

It's easy to slip into attack mode on the internet, especially if you don't have a face to put with the handle you're responding to. That doesn't make it right and I try to avoid it myself (some are better at it than others). It does help to think about your perception though to control your reality because things aren't always what they first seem. that said, i can see how you feel like you've been attacked and if I've ever been responsible for that I'm sorry.

That's "big" of you, Keith. But, no, I cannot think of any specific examples where you have been guilty of that. Thanks for being so gracious.

Now to the loooong offseason... UGH!!

redice
Now to the loooong offseason... UGH!!

On this I think we can all agree. *sigh*