2016 ECAC Playoff Permutations

Possible ECAC tournament seedings (the number in parentheses is the best
seed the team can get with no help):

Quinnipiac     1-2    (1)
Yale           1-3    (2)
Harvard        2-5    (3)
St. Lawrence   3-8    (4)
Dartmouth      4-8    (4)
Rensselaer     3-8    (5)
Cornell        4-8    (6)
Clarkson       5-9    (8)
Union          8-9    (9)
Brown         10-12   (10)
Colgate       10-12   (11)
Princeton     10-12   (12)

Back again with the 2016 version of the ECAC Playoff Permutations!  Unlike
the last few years, nobody has wrapped up a particular seed yet.  Even Quin-
nipiac’s near-undefeated season is not yet enough to guarantee the top spot,
although the Bobcats are pretty close.

Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where
each team in the ECAC could finish.  As always, I'm greatly indebted to
John Whelan's excellent playoff possibilities script at
[www.elynah.com]

For each ECAC team, I've listed the following:

THIS WEEKEND:  The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN:  The highest the team could finish with no help from the
     competition.  Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE:  The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE:  The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
     This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
     standings win.
TIEBREAKERS:  How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
     some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
     standings.  Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
     lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
     more than just those two teams tied.  For instance, Rensselaer wins the
     head-to-head tiebreaker against Harvard with a 1-0-1 record; however, in a
     three-way tie involving these two and Dartmouth, Rensselaer would actually 
     be seeded lower than Harvard.  If a listed tiebreaker result depends on
     more than just those two teams being tied, it is marked with an asterisk:

          Rensselaer could win or lose* against Harvard

For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:

1.   Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
     tournaments, do not count).
2.   League wins.
3.   Record against the top four teams in the conference.
4.   Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
5.   Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
6.   Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
7.   Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.

Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are
used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the
"pack".  Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the remaining
ties.  For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way tie, once
one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure goes back to
the first step with the three remaining tied teams.


Without further ado, here's how things shape up:

Quinnipiac:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Brown, Yale.
     ON THEIR OWN:  One point will wrap up first place.
     BEST CASE:  First.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to second if they get swept and Yale also beats Prince-
     ton.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Yale.

Yale:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Princeton, at Quinnipiac.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches second with one point this weekend.
     BEST CASE:  Would take first with a sweep if Quinnipiac also loses to
     Brown.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes third if they lose twice and Harvard sweeps.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Quinnipiac and Harvard.

Harvard:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Clarkson, at St. Lawrence.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Wraps up third with a two-point weekend.
     BEST CASE:  Climbs to second with two wins if Yale gets swept.
     WORST CASE:  Drops to fifth if they lose twice, Rensselaer sweeps, and St.
     Lawrence does not lose to Dartmouth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Dartmouth; loses to Yale and St. Lawrence; could win*
     or lose against Rensselaer

St. Lawrence:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Dartmouth, Harvard.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Three points would guarantee fourth place.
     BEST CASE:  Gets third with a sweep if Harvard does not beat Clarkson.
     WORST CASE:  Would finish eighth with two losses if Rensselaer gets at
     least two points, Cornell gets at least three points, and Clarkson also
     beats Dartmouth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Harvard and Cornell; loses to Dartmouth and Clarkson;
     could win or lose* against Rensselaer

Dartmouth:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At St. Lawrence, at Clarkson.
     ON THEIR OWN:  A sweep would give the Big Green fourth place.
     BEST CASE:  Fourth.
     WORST CASE:  Slides to eighth if they get swept, Rensselaer does not lose
     twice, Cornell gets at least two points, and Clarkson gets at least three
     points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats St. Lawrence, Rensselaer, Cornell, and Clarkson; loses
     to Harvard.

Rensselaer:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Colgate, at Cornell.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches fifth with two wins.
     BEST CASE:  Rises to third if they sweep, Harvard loses twice, St. Lawrence
     Loses to Dartmouth, and Dartmouth does not beat Clarkson.
     WORST CASE:  Would fall to eighth with two losses if Clarkson gets at least
     three points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Dartmouth and Clarkson; could win or lose against
     Cornell; could win* or lose against St. Lawrence; could win or lose*
     against Harvard.

Cornell:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Union, Rensselaer.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Guarantees sixth by winning twice.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes fourth with a sweep if St. Lawrence gets no more than
     one point and Dartmouth gets no more than two points.
     WORST CASE:  Drops to eighth with two losses if Clarkson gets at least two
     points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to St. Lawrence, Dartmouth, and Clarkson; could win or
     lose against Rensselaer

Clarkson:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Harvard, Dartmouth.
     ON THEIR OWN:  One point will wrap up eighth place.
     BEST CASE:  Would climb to fifth with a sweep if St. Lawrence loses twice,
     Rensselaer gets no more than one point, and Cornell gets no more than two
     points.
     WORST CASE:  Ends up ninth with two losses if Union sweeps.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats St. Lawrence, Rensselaer, Cornell, and Union; loses to
     Dartmouth.

Union:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Cornell, at Colgate.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Has already clinched ninth and can do no better without
     help.
     BEST CASE:  Would wrap up eighth with a sweep if Clarkson loses twice.
     WORST CASE:  Ninth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Clarkson.

Brown:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Quinnipiac, at Princeton.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Three points will lock up tenth place.
     BEST CASE:  Tenth.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to twelfth if they lose twice, Colgate gets at least two
     points, and Princeton does not lose to Yale.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Princeton; could win or lose* against Colgate.

Colgate:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Rensselaer, Union.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Takes eleventh with two points.
     BEST CASE:  Clinches tenth with a sweep if Brown gets no more than two
     points.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to twelfth with two losses if Princeton gets at least
     three points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Princeton; could win* or lose against Brown.

Princeton:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Yale, Brown.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Can do no better than twelfth without help.
     BEST CASE:  Would rise to tenth with two wins if Brown does not beat Quin-
     nipiac and Colgate gets no more than one point.
     WORST CASE:  Twelfth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Brown; loses to Colgate.

Give My Regards
And now the not-short-by-any-stretch-of-the-imagination version: