2024 ECAC Pemutations

Possible ECAC tournament seedings (the number in parentheses is the best
seed the team can get with no help):


Quinnipiac     1      (1)
Cornell        2-3    (2)
Colgate        2-3    (3)
Dartmouth      4-8    (4)
Clarkson       4-7    (5)
Union          4-9    (6)
St. Lawrence   4-11   (7)
Harvard        5-12   (8)
Princeton      6-12   (8)
Yale           6-12   (9)
Rensselaer     8-12   (11)
Brown          9-12   (12)

Once again, it’s the ECAC Playoff Permutations!  Although it may seem that
Quinnipiac wrapped up the regular-season title months ago, the Bobcats
didn’t officially clinch the #1 seed until last Friday night.  This leaves
Cornell and Colgate to fight it out for second, while the rest of the league
is the usual mess.

Going into the final week of league play, here's a breakdown of where each
team in the ECAC could finish.  For each ECAC team, I've listed the
following:

THIS WEEK:  The team's games this week, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN:  The highest the team could finish with no help from the
     competition.  Generally, this involves a sweep in regulation.
BEST CASE:  The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE:  The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
     This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
     standings win.
TIEBREAKERS:  How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
     some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 6 points) in the
     standings.  Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
     lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
     more than just those two teams tied.  For instance, Dartmouth wins the
     head-to-head points tiebreaker against Clarkson 4-2; however, in a
     three-way tie involving these two and Harvard, Dartmouth would actually
     be seeded lower than Clarkson.  If a listed tiebreaker result depends
     on more than just those two teams being tied, it is marked with an
     asterisk:

          Dartmouth could win or lose* against Clarkson

For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:

1.   Comparison of points in head-to-head games (non-conference meetings,
     such as in tournaments, do not count).
2.   League wins in regulation and overtime (shootout results do not apply).
3.   Comparison of points against top four teams.
4.   Comparison of points against top eight teams.
5.   Goal differential head-to-head.
6.   Goal differential against top four teams.
7.   Goal differential against top eight teams.

Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are
used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the
"pack".  Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the
remaining ties.  For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way
tie, once one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure
goes back to the first step with the three remaining tied teams.


Without further ado, here's how the final week looks:

Cornell:
     THIS WEEK:  Union, Rensselaer.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches second place with three points.
     BEST CASE:  Second.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes third if they lose twice in regulation and
     Colgate gets at least four points, including one win.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Could win or lose against Colgate.

Colgate:
     THIS WEEK:  Rensselaer, Union.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Has already wrapped up third and can do no better
     without help.
     BEST CASE:  Would take second with a pair of regulation wins if Cornell
     gets no more than one point.
     WORST CASE:  Third.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Dartmouth and Clarkson; could win or lose against
     Cornell.

Dartmouth:
     THIS WEEK:  Brown, Yale.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Finishes fourth with a regulation sweep.
     BEST CASE:  Fourth.
     WORST CASE:  Drops to eighth if they lose twice in regulation, Clarkson
     gets at least one point, Union gets at least two points, St. Lawrence
     gets at least four points, and Harvard sweeps in regulation.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Colgate, St. Lawrence, and Harvard; could win or
     lose against Union; could win or lose* against Clarkson.

Clarkson:
     THIS WEEK:  At Quinnipiac, at Princeton.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Wraps up fifth with four points, including one win.
     BEST CASE:  Rises to fourth with a regulation sweep if Dartmouth does
     not win twice in regulation.
     WORST CASE:  Would fall to seventh with two regulation losses if Union
     gets at least three points and St. Lawrence gets at least five points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Harvard; loses to Colgate; could win or lose
     against Union and St. Lawrence; could win* or lose against Dartmouth.

Union:
     THIS WEEK:  At Cornell, at Colgate.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches sixth with four points.
     BEST CASE:  Would get fourth with two regulation wins if Dartmouth and
     Clarkson get no more than three points each.
     WORST CASE:  Slides to ninth if they get swept in regulation, Princeton
     gets two regulation wins, St. Lawrence beats Quinnipiac in regulation,
     and the Harvard-Yale winner (including by shootout) wins their other
     game in regulation.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats St. Lawrence and Harvard; loses to Yale; could win
     or lose against Dartmouth and Clarkson; could win or lose* against
     Princeton.

St. Lawrence:
     THIS WEEK:  At Princeton, at Quinnipiac.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Four points will wrap up seventh place
     BEST CASE:  Climbs up to fourth with a regulation sweep if Dartmouth
     and Clarkson get no more than one point each and Union gets no more
     than three points.
     WORST CASE:  Ends up in eleventh if (deep breath, this one’s long) they
     get swept in regulation, Rensselaer and Union both get two regulation
     wins, Clarkson both loses to Quinnipiac and does not beat Princeton in
     regulation, Yale both beats Dartmouth and does not lose to Harvard in
     regulation, and Harvard and Dartmouth both beat Brown in regulation.
     Yes, that does mean that pretty much every game matters –- among other
     things, Union would need to finish fourth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Dartmouth; loses to Union and Princeton; could win
     or lose against Clarkson, Yale, and Rensselaer; could win or lose*
     against Harvard.

Harvard:
     THIS WEEK:  Yale, Brown.
     ON THEIR OWN:  A regulation sweep guarantees the Crimson eighth place.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes fifth with a pair of regulation wins if Dartmouth
     loses twice in regulation, Union gets no more than one point, and St.
     Lawrence gets no more than three points.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to twelfth if they get swept in regulation,
     Princeton gets at least one point, Rensselaer gets at least five
     points, and Brown gets a win (including by shootout) against Dartmouth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Dartmouth; loses to Clarkson, Union, Princeton, and
     Brown; could win or lose against Yale; could win or lose* against
     Rensselaer; could win* or lose against St. Lawrence.

Princeton:
     THIS WEEK:  St. Lawrence, Clarkson.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Would clinch eighth with a pair of regulation wins.
     BEST CASE:  Rises to sixth with a regulation sweep if Union loses twice
     in regulation and Harvard does not win both games in regulation.
     WORST CASE:  Drops into twelfth if they lose twice in regulation, Yale
     gets at least one point, Rensselaer gets at least four points, and
     Brown gets at least five points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats St. Lawrence, Harvard, Yale, and Brown; could win
     or lose against Rensselaer; could win* or lose against Union.

Yale:
     THIS WEEK:  At Harvard, at Dartmouth.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Wraps up ninth with two wins in regulation.
     BEST CASE:  Takes sixth with a regulation sweep if Princeton does not
     also sweep, Union gets no more than one point, and St. Lawrence gets no
     more than two points.
     WORST CASE:  Ends up in twelfth place with two losses in regulation if
     Rensselaer gets more than three points and Brown gets more than four
     points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Union, Rensselaer, and Brown; loses to Princeton;
     could win or lose against St. Lawrence and Harvard.

Rensselaer:
     THIS WEEK:  At Colgate, at Cornell.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Five points will give Rensselaer eleventh place.
     BEST CASE:  Grabs eighth with a regulation sweep if Yale gets two
     points against Harvard and both teams lose their other game, and
     Princeton gets no more than two points.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes twelfth with a pair of regulation losses if Brown
     gets at least two points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Brown; loses to Yale; could win or lose against St.
     Lawrence and Princeton; could win* or lose against Harvard.

Brown:
     THIS WEEK:  At Dartmouth, at Harvard.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Can do no better than twelfth without help.
     BEST CASE:  Climbs to ninth with a regulation sweep if Princeton gets
     no more than one point, Rensselaer gets no more than four points, and
     Yale either beats Harvard or gets no more than one point.
     WORST CASE:  Twelfth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Harvard; loses to Princeton, Yale, and Rensselaer.

Trotsky
SUL 4-11 is pretty impressive.