2020 ECAC Permutations

Short version first:

Possible ECAC tournament seedings (the number in parentheses is the best
seed the team can get with no help):


Cornell        1-2    (1)
Clarkson       1-2    (1)
Quinnipiac     3-5    (3)
Harvard        3-5    (4)
Rensselaer     3-7    (4)
Dartmouth      5-8    (6)
Yale           5-9    (7)
Colgate        6-9    (8)
Brown          7-10   (9)
Union          9-10   (10)
Princeton      11-12  (11)
St. Lawrence   11-12  (12)

And now the way-too-long version:

And once again, it’s the ECAC Playoff Permutations!  This year, the league
has more or less separated itself into three tiers.  We know who the top
two teams are going to be, as well as the bottom two.  The rest is the
usual unholy mess.

Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where
each team in the ECAC could finish.  As always, I'm greatly indebted to
John Whelan's excellent playoff possibilities script at

[www.elynah.com]

For each ECAC team, I've listed the following:

THIS WEEKEND:  The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN:  The highest the team could finish with no help from the
      competition.  Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE:  The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE:  The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
      This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
      standings win.
TIEBREAKERS:  How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
      some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
      standings.  Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
      lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
      more than just those two teams tied.  For instance, Colgate wins the
      head-to-head tiebreaker against Dartmouth with a 1-0-1 record; how-
      ever, in a three-way tie involving these two and Brown, Colgate would
      actually be seeded lower than Dartmouth.  If a listed tiebreaker
      result depends on more than just those two teams being tied, it is
      marked with an asterisk:

           Colgate could win or lose* against Dartmouth

For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:

1.   Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
     tournaments, do not count).
2.   League wins.
3.   Record against the top four teams in the conference.
4.   Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
5.   Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
6.   Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
7.   Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.

Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are
used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the
"pack".  Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the
Remaining ties.  For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way
tie, once one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure
goes back to the first step with the three remaining tied teams.


Without further ado, here's how the final weekend looks:

Cornell:
      THIS WEEKEND:  St. Lawrence, Clarkson.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Wraps up the top spot if they do not lose to Clarkson.
      BEST CASE:  First.
      WORST CASE:  Finishes second if they lose twice.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Could win or lose against Clarkson.

Clarkson:
      THIS WEEKEND:  At Colgate, at Cornell.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches first with a sweep.
      BEST CASE:  First.
      WORST CASE:  Will end up second if they do not beat Cornell.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Could win or lose against Cornell.

Quinnipiac:
      THIS WEEKEND:  Brown, Yale.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Would take third with three points on the weekend.
      BEST CASE:  Third.
      WORST CASE:  Drops to fifth with two losses if Rensselaer wins twice
      and Harvard beats Union.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Harvard; could win or lose against Rensselaer.

Harvard:
      THIS WEEKEND:  Rensselaer, Union.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Takes fourth if they do not lose to Rensselaer.
      BEST CASE:  Rises to third with a sweep if Quinnipiac gets no more
      than two points.
      WORST CASE:  Would finish fifth with a pair of losses.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Quinnipiac; could win or lose against
      Rensselaer.

Rensselaer:
      THIS WEEKEND:  At Harvard, at Dartmouth.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Two wins will guarantee fourth place.
      BEST CASE:  Finishes third with a sweep if Quinnipiac gets no more
      than one point.
      WORST CASE:  Ends up in seventh with two losses if Dartmouth also
      beats Union and Yale gets at least three points.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Colgate; loses to Yale; could win or lose
      against Quinnipiac, Harvard, and Dartmouth.

Dartmouth:
      THIS WEEKEND:  Union, Rensselaer.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches sixth with two wins.
      BEST CASE:  Would climb to fifth with a sweep if Harvard beats
      Rensselaer.
      WORST CASE:  Falls to eighth with two losses if Yale and Colgate
      get at least one point and Brown does not sweep.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Brown; could win or lose against Rensselaer and
      Yale; could win* or lose against Colgate.

Yale:
      THIS WEEKEND:  At Princeton, at Quinnipiac.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Gets seventh with a sweep.
      BEST CASE:  Would finish fifth by winning twice if Rensselaer does
      not get more than one point and Dartmouth does not sweep.
      WORST CASE:  Slides to ninth with two losses if Colgate gets at
      least two points, Brown wins twice, and Rensselaer does not finish in
      the top four.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Rensselaer; could win or lose against Dartmouth,
      Colgate, and Brown.

Colgate:
      THIS WEEKEND:  Clarkson, St. Lawrence.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Wraps up eighth place with two points.
      BEST CASE:  Finishes sixth with two wins if Dartmouth does not sweep
      and Yale gets no more than two points.
      WORST CASE:  Drops to ninth if they get swept and Brown gets at
      least three points.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Rensselaer and Brown; could win or lose
      against Yale; could win or lose* against Dartmouth.

Brown:
      THIS WEEKEND:  At Quinnipiac, at Princeton.
      ON THEIR OWN:  One point guarantees the Bears ninth place.
      BEST CASE:  Rises to seventh with a sweep if Yale loses twice,
      Colgate gets no more than one point, and Rensselaer does not finish
      in the top four.
      WORST CASE:  Would finish tenth with two losses if Union wins twice.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Colgate; loses to Dartmouth and Union; could win
      or lose against Yale.

Union:
      THIS WEEKEND:  At Dartmouth, at Harvard.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Has already clinched tenth place and can do no better
      without help.
      BEST CASE:  Takes ninth with a sweep if Brown loses twice.
      WORST CASE:  Tenth.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Brown and Princeton.

Princeton:
      THIS WEEKEND:  Yale, Brown.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Gets eleventh place with one point.
      BEST CASE:  Eleventh.
      WORST CASE:  Falls to twelfth if they get swept and St. Lawrence
      wins twice.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Beats St. Lawrence; loses to Union.

St. Lawrence:
      THIS WEEKEND:  At Cornell, at Colgate.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Can do no better than twelfth without help.
      BEST CASE:  Would finish eleventh with a sweep if Princeton loses
      twice.
      WORST CASE:  Twelfth.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Princeton.

Give My Regards
And now the way-too-long version:

Thanks for doing this

Trying to remember: After the first round, when seeds 5-8 play 9-12, the survivors are reseeded so 1 seed Cornell or Clarkson plays the low survivor, somewhere between 8 and 12, in the quarterfinals, the 2 seed plays the second lowest survivor, etcetera. But the teams are not (?) reseeded after the QFs heading into Lake Placid.

billhoward
Trying to remember: After the first round, when seeds 5-8 play 9-12, the survivors are reseeded so 1 seed Cornell or Clarkson plays the low survivor, somewhere between 8 and 12, in the quarterfinals, the 2 seed plays the second lowest survivor, etcetera. But the teams are not (?) reseeded after the QFs heading into Lake Placid.

No. The teams are always re-seeded.