2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations
Posted by Give My Regards
2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations
Posted by: Give My Regards (---.atc-nycorp.com)
Date: February 20, 2012 04:33PM
Once again, it’s time for the ECAC Playoff Permutation Spectacular, that annual monument to -- well, obfuscation, probably. As the league’s final weekend approaches, we know that Union and Cornell will be the top two seeds in some order, and that Princeton, Rensselaer, and Brown will be on the road for the first weekend of the playoffs. Beyond that, things get wonderfully murky. Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where each team in the ECAC could finish. As always, I'm greatly indebted to John Whelan's excellent playoff possibilities script at [www.slack.net] For each ECAC team, I've listed the following: THIS WEEKEND: The team's weekend games, its last two (or three) of the season. ON THEIR OWN: The highest the team could finish with no help from the competition. Generally, this involves a weekend sweep. BEST CASE: The highest the team could finish if everything goes right. WORST CASE: The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong. This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the standings win. TIEBREAKERS: How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the standings. Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are more than just those two teams tied. For instance, Clarkson wins the head-to-head tiebreaker against St. Lawrence with a 2-0 record; however, in a three-way tie involving those two and Harvard, Clarkson would actually be seeded lower than St. Lawrence. This is one of those exceedingly rare instances in which a season sweep still isn’t enough to guarantee a tiebreaker win in all cases. For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are: 1. Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in tournaments, do not count). 2. League wins. 3. Record against the top four teams in the conference. 4. Record against the top eight teams in the conference. 5. Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head. 6. Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference. 7. Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference. Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the “pack”. Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the remaining ties. For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way tie, once one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure goes back to the first step with the three remaining tied teams. Without further ado, here’s how things look: Union: THIS WEEKEND: At Cornell, at Colgate. ON THEIR OWN: Wraps up first place with at least a tie against Cornell. BEST CASE: First. WORST CASE: Would drop to second if Cornell sweeps. TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against Cornell. Cornell: THIS WEEKEND: Union, Rensselaer. ON THEIR OWN: Clinches first with two wins. BEST CASE: First. WORST CASE: Finishes second if they do not beat Union. TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against Union. Colgate: THIS WEEKEND: Rensselaer, Union. ON THEIR OWN: Three points will guarantee the Raiders third place. BEST CASE: Third. WORST CASE: Falls to seventh with two losses if Quinnipiac and St. Lawrence sweep, Harvard beats Clarkson, and Clarkson does not lose to Dartmouth. This would set up either a three-way tie for fifth involving Colgate, St. Lawrence, and Harvard or a four-way tie for fourth involving those teams and Clarkson. In both cases, the tiebreakers would put Colgate seventh. TIEBREAKERS: Beats Yale; loses to Harvard; could win or lose against Clarkson, Quinnipiac, and St. Lawrence. Clarkson: THIS WEEKEND: At Dartmouth, at Harvard. ON THEIR OWN: Takes fourth place if they get three points this weekend. BEST CASE: Climbs to third with a sweep if Colgate gets no more than two points. WORST CASE: Would finish eighth if they get swept, St. Lawrence and Yale both win twice, and Quinnipiac beats Brown. TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Harvard; could win or lose against Colgate, Quinnipiac, St. Lawrence, and Yale. Harvard: THIS WEEKEND: St. Lawrence, Clarkson. ON THEIR OWN: Guarantees fourth by beating Clarkson and not losing to St. Lawrence. BEST CASE: Clinches third with a sweep if Colgate gets no more than two points. WORST CASE: Drops to ninth with two losses if Dartmouth wins twice, Yale gets at least three points, and Quinnipiac beats Brown. This would set up a three-way tie for seventh involving Harvard, Dartmouth, and St. Lawrence, with the tiebreakers putting Harvard ninth. TIEBREAKERS: Beats Colgate, Clarkson, and Quinnipiac; loses to St. Lawrence; could win or lose against Yale and Dartmouth. Quinnipiac: THIS WEEKEND: Brown, Yale. ON THEIR OWN: Two wins would wrap up sixth place. BEST CASE: Rises to third if they sweep, Colgate and Clarkson both lose twice, and Harvard loses to St. Lawrence. WORST CASE: Would fall to ninth with two losses if Dartmouth wins twice and St. Lawrence beats Harvard. TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Harvard and St. Lawrence; could win or lose against Colgate, Clarkson, Yale, and Dartmouth. St. Lawrence: THIS WEEKEND: At Harvard, at Dartmouth. ON THEIR OWN: Clinches sixth with a sweep. BEST CASE: Would climb to third if they win twice, Yale also sweeps, Colgate loses twice, and Clarkson beats Harvard and loses to Dartmouth. This would set up a four-way tie for third among St. Lawrence, Harvard, Colgate, and Yale, with St. Lawrence winning the tiebreaker. WORST CASE: Finishes ninth if they lose twice and Yale does not. TIEBREAKERS: Beats Harvard, Quinnipiac, and Princeton; loses to Dartmouth; could win or lose against Colgate, Clarkson, and Yale. Yale: THIS WEEKEND: At Princeton, at Quinnipiac. ON THEIR OWN: Takes seventh with a pair of wins. BEST CASE: Clinches fourth with two wins if Colgate gets at least one point, Clarkson gets swept, and St. Lawrence beats Harvard and does not beat Dartmouth. WORST CASE: Drops to ninth with two losses if Dartmouth gets at least three points. TIEBREAKERS: Beats Dartmouth and Princeton; loses to Colgate; could win or lose against Clarkson, Harvard, Quinnipiac, and St. Lawrence. Dartmouth: THIS WEEKEND: Clarkson, St. Lawrence. ON THEIR OWN: Two wins would give the Big Green eighth place. BEST CASE: Takes fifth with a sweep if Harvard loses twice, Yale and Quinnipiac tie, and they both lose their other game. This would set up a four-way tie for fifth among Dartmouth, St. Lawrence, Harvard, and Quinnipiac, with Dartmouth winning the tiebreaker. WORST CASE: Falls to eleventh with a pair of losses if Rensselaer wins twice and Princeton gets at least three points. TIEBREAKERS: Beats St. Lawrence, Princeton, and Brown; loses to Yale; could win or lose against Harvard, Quinnipiac, and Rensselaer. Princeton: THIS WEEKEND: Yale, Brown. ON THEIR OWN: Would guarantee tenth place by beating Brown. BEST CASE: Finishes ninth with two wins if Dartmouth gets no more than one point. WORST CASE: Would drop to twelfth if they lose twice and Rensselaer gets at least three points. TIEBREAKERS: Beats Rensselaer; loses to St. Lawrence, Yale, and Dartmouth; could win or lose against Brown. Rensselaer: THIS WEEKEND: At Colgate, at Cornell. ON THEIR OWN: Wraps up eleventh place with a sweep. BEST CASE: Climbs to ninth with two wins if Dartmouth loses twice and Princeton gets no more than one point. WORST CASE: Finishes twelfth if they get swept and Brown does not. TIEBREAKERS: Beats Brown; loses to Princeton; could win or lose against Dartmouth. Brown: THIS WEEKEND: At Quinnipiac, at Princeton. ON THEIR OWN: Can do no better than twelfth place without help. BEST CASE: Gets tenth place with a sweep if Rensselaer does not win twice. WORST CASE: Twelfth. TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Dartmouth and Rensselaer; could win or lose against Princeton.
___________________________
If you lead a good life, go to Sunday school and church, and say your prayers every night, when you die, you'll go to LYNAH!
If you lead a good life, go to Sunday school and church, and say your prayers every night, when you die, you'll go to LYNAH!
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/20/2012 09:08PM by Give My Regards.
Re: 2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations
Posted by: Give My Regards (---.atc-nycorp.com)
Date: February 20, 2012 04:34PM
And here's the short version of all that: Possible ECAC tournament seedings: Union 1-2 Cornell 1-2 Colgate 3-7 Clarkson 3-8 Harvard 3-9 Quinnipiac 3-9 St. Lawrence 3-9 Yale 4-9 Dartmouth 5-11 Princeton 9-12 Rensselaer 9-12 Brown 10-12
___________________________
If you lead a good life, go to Sunday school and church, and say your prayers every night, when you die, you'll go to LYNAH!
If you lead a good life, go to Sunday school and church, and say your prayers every night, when you die, you'll go to LYNAH!
Re: 2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations
Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.arthritishealthdoctors.com)
Date: February 20, 2012 05:18PM
WOW, very impressive. Now I'm assuming you'll stay up and do this again Sat. night. No partying first.
___________________________
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
Re: 2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations
Posted by: Trotsky (---.hsd1.md.comcast.net)
Date: February 20, 2012 05:45PM
Great job; thank you.
Re: 2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations
Posted by: French Rage (---.hsd1.ca.comcast.net)
Date: February 20, 2012 06:03PM
Jim Hyla
WOW, very impressive. Now I'm assuming you'll stay up and do this again Sat. night. No partying first.
Couldn't you just look at the final standings Saturday night?
___________________________
03/23/02: Maine 4, Harvard 3
03/28/03: BU 6, Harvard 4
03/26/04: Maine 5, Harvard 4
03/26/05: UNH 3, Harvard 2
03/25/06: Maine 6, Harvard 1
03/23/02: Maine 4, Harvard 3
03/28/03: BU 6, Harvard 4
03/26/04: Maine 5, Harvard 4
03/26/05: UNH 3, Harvard 2
03/25/06: Maine 6, Harvard 1
Re: 2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations
Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.arthritishealthdoctors.com)
Date: February 20, 2012 06:23PM
Stupid me, how about meaning Friday.French Rage
Jim Hyla
WOW, very impressive. Now I'm assuming you'll stay up and do this again Sat. night. No partying first.
Couldn't you just look at the final standings Saturday night?
___________________________
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
Re: 2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations
Posted by: KeithK (---.external.lmco.com)
Date: February 20, 2012 06:28PM
With this post I finally realize who "Give My Regards" is. Great job as ever, Bill.
Re: 2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations
Posted by: css228 (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: February 20, 2012 06:42PM
Just to add a note. Cornell cannot finish higher than second if they tie Union. That game has to result in a win or any final outcome will either be behind Union or lost of a tiebreaker because head to head each team will have two points and Union will end up with more league wins.
Re: 2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations
Posted by: RichH (---.hsd1.ct.comcast.net)
Date: February 20, 2012 08:59PM
KeithK
With this post I finally realize who "Give My Regards" is. Great job as ever, Bill.
My thoughts exactly. Both points.
Re: 2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations
Posted by: Give My Regards (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: February 20, 2012 09:18PM
css228
Just to add a note. Cornell cannot finish higher than second if they tie Union. That game has to result in a win or any final outcome will either be behind Union or lost of a tiebreaker because head to head each team will have two points and Union will end up with more league wins.
*grumble* Right you are. Cornell's worst case is now fixed in the original post.
And thanks to all who waded through that!
___________________________
If you lead a good life, go to Sunday school and church, and say your prayers every night, when you die, you'll go to LYNAH!
If you lead a good life, go to Sunday school and church, and say your prayers every night, when you die, you'll go to LYNAH!
Re: 2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations
Posted by: Robb (---.ks.ks.cox.net)
Date: February 20, 2012 10:33PM
I noticed it, too, but figured that you were just giving one example of how Cornell could finish second. There are other ways for us to finish 2nd too, even if we beat Union (heaven forbid), so your list is still not exhaustive.Give My Regards
css228
Just to add a note. Cornell cannot finish higher than second if they tie Union. That game has to result in a win or any final outcome will either be behind Union or lost of a tiebreaker because head to head each team will have two points and Union will end up with more league wins.
*grumble* Right you are. Cornell's worst case is now fixed in the original post.
And thanks to all who waded through that!
Re: 2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations
Posted by: jtn27 (---.redrover.cornell.edu)
Date: February 21, 2012 12:05AM
Robb
I noticed it, too, but figured that you were just giving one example of how Cornell could finish second. There are other ways for us to finish 2nd too, even if we beat Union (heaven forbid), so your list is still not exhaustive.Give My Regards
css228
Just to add a note. Cornell cannot finish higher than second if they tie Union. That game has to result in a win or any final outcome will either be behind Union or lost of a tiebreaker because head to head each team will have two points and Union will end up with more league wins.
*grumble* Right you are. Cornell's worst case is now fixed in the original post.
And thanks to all who waded through that!
The other ways we could beat Union but still finish second are:
1. We lose to RPI, Union beats or ties Colgate.
2. We tie RPI, Union beats Colgate
I think that's it. Also, if we beat Union, and Colgate also beats Union we take first no matter what we do against RPI. Looks we're Colgate fans this weekend.
___________________________
Class of 2013
Class of 2013
Re: 2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations
Posted by: marty (---.nycap.res.rr.com)
Date: February 21, 2012 06:13AM
Robb
I noticed it, too, but figured that you were just giving one example of how Cornell could finish second. There are other ways for us to finish 2nd too, even if we beat Union (heaven forbid), thoughGive My Regards
css228
Just to add a note. Cornell cannot finish higher than second if they tie Union. That game has to result in a win or any final outcome will either be behind Union or lost of a tiebreaker because head to head each team will have two points and Union will end up with more league wins.
*grumble* Right you are. Cornell's worst case is now fixed in the original post.
And thanks to all who waded through that!soyour list is stillnot exhaustiveexhausting .
FYP
Re: 2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations
Posted by: Trotsky (---.dc.dc.cox.net)
Date: February 21, 2012 10:01AM
Me too. Great to hear from the Mouse that Roared again!KeithK
With this post I finally realize who "Give My Regards" is.
Re: 2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations
Posted by: Trotsky (---.dc.dc.cox.net)
Date: February 21, 2012 10:06AM
jtn27
Robb
I noticed it, too, but figured that you were just giving one example of how Cornell could finish second. There are other ways for us to finish 2nd too, even if we beat Union (heaven forbid), so your list is still not exhaustive.Give My Regards
css228
Just to add a note. Cornell cannot finish higher than second if they tie Union. That game has to result in a win or any final outcome will either be behind Union or lost of a tiebreaker because head to head each team will have two points and Union will end up with more league wins.
*grumble* Right you are. Cornell's worst case is now fixed in the original post.
And thanks to all who waded through that!
The other ways we could beat Union but still finish second are:
1. We lose to RPI, Union beats or ties Colgate.
2. We tie RPI, Union beats Colgate
I think that's it. Also, if we beat Union, and Colgate also beats Union we take first no matter what we do against RPI. Looks we're Colgate fans this weekend.
The exhaustive/ing way to finish first is:
Beat Union AND (Beat RPI OR (Tie RPI AND (Colgate ties Union OR Colgate beats Union)) OR (Lose to RPI AND Colgate beats Union))
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/21/2012 10:07AM by Trotsky.
Re: 2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations
Posted by: Aaron M. Griffin (---.mobility-up.psu.edu)
Date: February 21, 2012 10:43AM
Trotsky
jtn27
Robb
I noticed it, too, but figured that you were just giving one example of how Cornell could finish second. There are other ways for us to finish 2nd too, even if we beat Union (heaven forbid), so your list is still not exhaustive.Give My Regards
css228
Just to add a note. Cornell cannot finish higher than second if they tie Union. That game has to result in a win or any final outcome will either be behind Union or lost of a tiebreaker because head to head each team will have two points and Union will end up with more league wins.
*grumble* Right you are. Cornell's worst case is now fixed in the original post.
And thanks to all who waded through that!
The other ways we could beat Union but still finish second are:
1. We lose to RPI, Union beats or ties Colgate.
2. We tie RPI, Union beats Colgate
I think that's it. Also, if we beat Union, and Colgate also beats Union we take first no matter what we do against RPI. Looks we're Colgate fans this weekend.
The exhaustive/ing way to finish first is:
Beat Union AND (Beat RPI OR (Tie RPI AND (Colgate ties Union OR Colgate beats Union)) OR (Lose to RPI AND Colgate beats Union))
The succinct way of stating that is that Cornell needs to beat Union on Friday, and then equal or better Union's result when it plays RPI on Saturday to win the Jell-O Mold.
___________________________
Class of 2010
2009-10 Cornell-Harvard:
11/07/2009 Ithaca 6-3
02/19/2010 Cambridge 3-0
03/12/2010 Ithaca 5-1
03/13/2010 Ithaca 3-0
Class of 2010
2009-10 Cornell-Harvard:
11/07/2009 Ithaca 6-3
02/19/2010 Cambridge 3-0
03/12/2010 Ithaca 5-1
03/13/2010 Ithaca 3-0
Re: 2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations
Posted by: jtn27 (---.redrover.cornell.edu)
Date: February 21, 2012 04:40PM
Aaron M. Griffin
Trotsky
jtn27
Robb
I noticed it, too, but figured that you were just giving one example of how Cornell could finish second. There are other ways for us to finish 2nd too, even if we beat Union (heaven forbid), so your list is still not exhaustive.Give My Regards
css228
Just to add a note. Cornell cannot finish higher than second if they tie Union. That game has to result in a win or any final outcome will either be behind Union or lost of a tiebreaker because head to head each team will have two points and Union will end up with more league wins.
*grumble* Right you are. Cornell's worst case is now fixed in the original post.
And thanks to all who waded through that!
The other ways we could beat Union but still finish second are:
1. We lose to RPI, Union beats or ties Colgate.
2. We tie RPI, Union beats Colgate
I think that's it. Also, if we beat Union, and Colgate also beats Union we take first no matter what we do against RPI. Looks we're Colgate fans this weekend.
The exhaustive/ing way to finish first is:
Beat Union AND (Beat RPI OR (Tie RPI AND (Colgate ties Union OR Colgate beats Union)) OR (Lose to RPI AND Colgate beats Union))
The succinct way of stating that is that Cornell needs to beat Union on Friday, and then equal or better Union's result when it plays RPI on Saturday to win the Jell-O Mold.
In other words: Go Colgate (for Saturday, February 26, 2012 only)!
___________________________
Class of 2013
Class of 2013
Re: 2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations
Posted by: Josh '99 (---.nyc.biz.rr.com)
Date: February 21, 2012 05:05PM
The more things change, the more they stay the same.Give My Regards
Brown: THIS WEEKEND: At Quinnipiac, at Princeton. ON THEIR OWN: Can do no better than twelfth place without help. BEST CASE: Gets tenth place with a sweep if Rensselaer does not win twice. WORST CASE: Twelfth. TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Dartmouth and Rensselaer; could win or lose against Princeton.
Re: 2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations
Posted by: Give My Regards (---.atc-nycorp.com)
Date: February 21, 2012 05:34PM
Josh '99
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Well, maybe not entirely. Union and Cornell have obviously done pretty well against the rest of the ECAC, as no other team has managed more than one win, total, against the top two -- except for Colgate, which has two wins (dammitall)...
... and Brown, which has three. The Bears currently have more wins against Union and Cornell than they do against the rest of the ECAC.
___________________________
If you lead a good life, go to Sunday school and church, and say your prayers every night, when you die, you'll go to LYNAH!
If you lead a good life, go to Sunday school and church, and say your prayers every night, when you die, you'll go to LYNAH!
Re: 2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations
Posted by: KeithK (---.external.lmco.com)
Date: February 21, 2012 06:45PM
The way all of the tiebreakers and rankings are set up if you have to lose it's best to lose against bottom feeders. (Assuming the silly idea that you can "allocate" your losses.)
Re: 2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations
Posted by: billhoward (---.hsd1.nj.comcast.net)
Date: February 21, 2012 07:24PM
Great stuff. Nice that theoretically 8 teams have a chance to finish in the top 4. For Brown, the handwriting's on the wall: best case, finishing tenth. Time to look to next year. Or transferring.
Re: 2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations
Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: February 21, 2012 07:39PM
Or pretend you're Colgate.billhoward
Great stuff. Nice that theoretically 8 teams have a chance to finish in the top 4. For Brown, the handwriting's on the wall: best case, finishing tenth. Time to look to next year. Or transferring.
___________________________
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
Re: 2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations
Posted by: French Rage (---.packetdesign.com)
Date: February 21, 2012 07:43PM
Jim Hyla
Or pretend you're Colgate.billhoward
Great stuff. Nice that theoretically 8 teams have a chance to finish in the top 4. For Brown, the handwriting's on the wall: best case, finishing tenth. Time to look to next year. Or transferring.
I'd rather die!
___________________________
03/23/02: Maine 4, Harvard 3
03/28/03: BU 6, Harvard 4
03/26/04: Maine 5, Harvard 4
03/26/05: UNH 3, Harvard 2
03/25/06: Maine 6, Harvard 1
03/23/02: Maine 4, Harvard 3
03/28/03: BU 6, Harvard 4
03/26/04: Maine 5, Harvard 4
03/26/05: UNH 3, Harvard 2
03/25/06: Maine 6, Harvard 1
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