ECAC Playoff Possibilities and Race in a Nutshell Thread

John's excellent annual efforts are available off the 2008 menu on TBRW.

If the remaining games follow the rule that better teams win and tied teams tie, Cornell finishes 7th, losing a three-way tie with Harvard and Union.

If the remaining games follow the rule that better teams win and tied teams have the home team win, Cornell finishes 6th.

The latter rule with the exception of a Cornell tie at either Quinnipiac or Princeton puts them in 5th. Ties at both give them 3rd (winning a tie-break with Quinnipiac). Cornell winning out under this rule gives them 2nd.

I put this in Jim's thread about the rest of the ECAC year as well, but it seems like more conversation might take place in this thread.

Clarkson, Princeton, Quinnipiac, and Cornell have all locked up home ice in the playoffs for at least the first round. None of them can finish worse than 8th.

Also, SLU, RPI, Brown, and Dartmouth will all be playing in the first weekend. None of them can break into the top 4, although all have a chance at home ice. With one more win, Colgate could seal that off and make it so only SLU has a shot at it. Big gap this year between 1-8 and 9-12 this late. As early as Friday next week we could know who's going on the road for the first round.

All teams, 1-8, are within striking distance of first place. Hooray ECAC, always taking it down to the final game of the final weekend and beyond.

You should probably re-run any scenarios you've done. I just noticed that the ECAC's new fun-killing "Total Wins" tiebreaker (between H2H points and points vs top 4) was not implemented in the CGI script, although it was in the nutshell page. It's now been fixed (I hope!) everywhere, so please try again.

jtwcornell91
...the ECAC's new fun-killing "Total Wins" tiebreaker (between H2H points and points vs top 4)...

When the hell did that happeb? And why? Fun killing is right.

KeithK
When the hell did that happeb? And why? Fun killing is right.

I'm going to guess it happened about 10 minutes after the league resolved the Cornell-Quinnipiac infinite loop last year... but I managed to miss the announcement also.

And it's not really all that fun-killing. It wouldn't have resolved anything last year, as both Cornell and Q had 10 league wins.

Give My Regards

KeithK
It wouldn't have resolved anything last year, as both Cornell and Q had 10 league wins.

Unfortunately, ten wins isn't gonna get us a first-round bye this year.

 

___________________________
Al DeFlorio '65

Give My Regards

KeithK
When the hell did that happeb? And why? Fun killing is right.

I'm going to guess it happened about 10 minutes after the league resolved the Cornell-Quinnipiac infinite loop last year... but I managed to miss the announcement also.

And it's not really all that fun-killing. It wouldn't have resolved anything last year, as both Cornell and Q had 10 league wins.

Actually, it would have, since it would have broken the tie for 8th among Yale (8 wins), Colgate (7 wins) and RPI (6 wins). That would have provided a complete top 8 for Cornell (14 points) and Quinnipiac (12 points), so Cornell still would have got fourth place. (But Yale would have had home ice instead of Colgate, and we wouldn't have got to the infinite loop.)
[slack.net]
[slack.net]

Please forgive the plug, but here's my article on CHN on the ECAC standings:

[www.collegehockeynews.com]

Any chance the playoff possibilities tool has been updated for 2008-2009?

Chris 02
Any chance the playoff possibilities tool has been updated for 2008-2009?

John's menu page on TBRW for this year.

I was waiting for the end of this year's later-than-usual travel-partner-on-travel-partner action, but it should be set up now:

[www.slack.net]
[www.slack.net]

jtwcornell91
I was waiting for the end of this year's later-than-usual travel-partner-on-travel-partner action

That sounds oddly erotic.

Is the 2013 version available?

Chris 02
Is the 2013 version available?

John and I are in negotiations.

Chris 02
Is the 2013 version available?

Let me make it simple for you: in a nutshell, we do not have a shot at the ECAC title this year.

jtn27

Chris 02
Is the 2013 version available?

Let me make it simple for you: in a nutshell, we do not have a shot at the ECAC title this year.

Your nut's shell has a large hole in it.

CowbellGuy

jtn27

Chris 02
Is the 2013 version available?

Let me make it simple for you: in a nutshell, we do not have a shot at the ECAC title this year.

Your nut's shell has a large hole in it.

If you're saying what I think you're saying, I disagree. Technically, yes, we can still win the ECAC title. But I highly doubt that we can win 6 postseason games, at least one of which will probably have to be against Q.

CowbellGuy

jtn27

Chris 02
Is the 2013 version available?

Let me make it simple for you: in a nutshell, we do not have a shot at the ECAC title this year.

Your nut's shell has a large hole in it.

If we win (which we will not), I will do something outrageous. Suggestions welcome.

jtn27

CowbellGuy

jtn27

Chris 02
Is the 2013 version available?

Let me make it simple for you: in a nutshell, we do not have a shot at the ECAC title this year.

Your nut's shell has a large hole in it.

If you're saying what I think you're saying, I disagree. Technically, yes, we can still win the ECAC title. But I highly doubt that we can win 6 postseason games, at least one of which will probably have to be against Q.

Is it likely? Hell, no. Is it possible? Yes.

CowbellGuy

jtn27

CowbellGuy

jtn27

Chris 02
Is the 2013 version available?

Let me make it simple for you: in a nutshell, we do not have a shot at the ECAC title this year.

Your nut's shell has a large hole in it.

If you're saying what I think you're saying, I disagree. Technically, yes, we can still win the ECAC title. But I highly doubt that we can win 6 postseason games, at least one of which will probably have to be against Q.

Is it likely? Hell, no. Is it possible? Yes.

Call it blind stupid optimism, but I think we'll make a good run. What does a "good run" entail? No clue.

Ben

CowbellGuy

jtn27

Chris 02
Is the 2013 version available?

Let me make it simple for you: in a nutshell, we do not have a shot at the ECAC title this year.

Your nut's shell has a large hole in it.

If we win (which we will not), I will do something outrageous. Suggestions welcome.

Dress head to foot in Harvard apparel at the next Fish and Fowl you attend, without indicating in any way it's ironic.

BTW, you're fairly safe. We are now assured of finishing under .500 in the ECAC for the first time in 14 years. Here are the lowest RS winning percentage teams to ever win the ECAC tourney:

Pct Team Year Seed
.455 Prn 1998 7 / 12
.500 Cor 1980 8 / 17
.500 Hvd 2004 6 / 12
.523 RPI 1995 6 / 12
.523 Hvd 2002 3 / 12
.568 Prv 1981 6 / 17

I have no doubt in my mind Cornell can beat every team in the conference, except perhaps Q. They can also lose to each of these teams. I predict they win until they have to play Q/Yale.

BearLover
I have no doubt in my mind Cornell can beat every team in the conference, except perhaps Q. They can also lose to each of these teams. I predict they win until they have to play Q/Yale.

That may depend upon which goalie Yale plays.

Trotsky

Chris 02
Is the 2013 version available?

John and I are in negotiations.

slack.net vanished a few weeks ago, just as I was too happily preoccupied to notice. The hockey part of the website exists on my laptop; I should release it sometime...

jtwcornell91

Trotsky

Chris 02
Is the 2013 version available?

John and I are in negotiations.

slack.net vanished a few weeks ago, just as I was too happily preoccupied to notice. The hockey part of the website exists on my laptop; I should release it sometime...

Oh I see. You are holding out, trying to get additional leverage for your negotiations. Give him whatever he asks!

KeithK

jtwcornell91

Trotsky

Chris 02
Is the 2013 version available?

John and I are in negotiations.

slack.net vanished a few weeks ago, just as I was too happily preoccupied to notice. The hockey part of the website exists on my laptop; I should release it sometime...

Oh I see. You are holding out, trying to get additional leverage for your negotiations. Give him whatever he asks!

John is being represented by Scott Boras.

Trotsky

KeithK

jtwcornell91

Trotsky

Chris 02
Is the 2013 version available?

John and I are in negotiations.

slack.net vanished a few weeks ago, just as I was too happily preoccupied to notice. The hockey part of the website exists on my laptop; I should release it sometime...

Oh I see. You are holding out, trying to get additional leverage for your negotiations. Give him whatever he asks!

John is being represented by Scott Boras.

I guessed correctly when I read your post of February 17, 2013 12:57PM.

So, how are those negotiations coming along? 'Cause if we have to go into the last week of the season with Replacement Scripts, I for one will be a little unhappy.

Give My Regards
So, how are those negotiations coming along? 'Cause if we have to go into the last week of the season with Replacement Scripts, I for one will be a little unhappy.

Every recruit holds out for the perks.

The latest on Yale's Malcolm from New Haven Register.

Short enough to just post it.

Yale goalie Jeff Malcolm doubtful for the weekend
Yale coach Keith Allain isn't expecting goaltender Jeff Malcolm to return for this weekend's games at Quinnipiac and Princeton. But the senior did some limited team work in practice Wednesday for the first time since his injury on Feb. 1.

Allain ruled Malcolm out for Quinnipiac on Friday, and has yet to decide on Nick Maricic or Colin Wilson as his starter. Though he didn't completely rule out Malcolm for Princeton, Allain hinted it's unlikely.

"He's getting closer, and when he's healthy he'll play," Allain said. "There's a chance (he could play Saturday) but I wouldn't count on that either."

Malcolm's work Wednesday included getting on the ice to face a shots. Allain said he's mostly doing conditioning and "warm-up stuff", with a possibility his workload could increase today.

In the absence of the Real Thing, a guide to our rooting interest in this weekend's games. Red indicates our rooting choice.

Standings prior to weekend:

                         Conference Only                    Overall
                    Pts  GP  Record  Win%  GF- GA   GP  Record  Win%  GF- GA
 1 Quinnipiac        32  18 15- 1- 2 .889  61- 25   30 22- 4- 4 .800  87- 47
 2 RPI               21  18  9- 6- 3 .583  48- 42   30 14-11- 5 .550  84- 73
 3 St. Lawrence      20  18  8- 6- 4 .556  52- 54   30 15-11- 4 .567  90- 83
   Union             20  18  8- 6- 4 .556  52- 43   30 15-10- 5 .583  88- 66
 5 Dartmouth         19  18  8- 7- 3 .528  50- 45   25 12- 9- 4 .560  74- 61
   Yale              19  18  9- 8- 1 .528  49- 51   25 13- 9- 3 .580  73- 71
 7 Clarkson          17  18  7- 8- 3 .472  52- 52   30  8-15- 7 .383  80- 91
   Princeton         17  18  7- 8- 3 .472  44- 49   25  9-12- 4 .440  62- 70
 9 Brown             15  18  5- 8- 5 .417  41- 42   25  9-11- 5 .460  57- 61
10 Colgate           13  18  5-10- 3 .361  42- 53   30 13-13- 4 .500  96- 81
   Cornell           13  18  5-10- 3 .361  36- 49   25  9-13- 3 .420  57- 68
12 Harvard           10  18  4-12- 2 .278  34- 56   25  7-15- 3 .340  56- 81

Games

Friday, February 22:
  Brown *              at Princeton            EC            bad (kind of)
  Dartmouth            at Clarkson *           EC            bad 
  Harvard              at St. Lawrence *       EC            good
  RPI                  at Cornell *            EC            good
  Union                at Colgate *            EC            bad 
  Yale                 at Quinnipiac           EC            still going on and we don't really care

Saturday, February 23:
  Brown                at Quinnipiac           EC            7:00 pm ET
  Dartmouth            at St. Lawrence         EC            7:00 pm ET
  Harvard              at Clarkson             EC            7:00 pm ET
  RPI                  at Colgate              EC            7:00 pm ET
  Union                at Cornell              EC            7:00 pm ET
  Yale                 at Princeton            EC            7:00 pm ET

Edit: changes based on replies

SLU > Drt flipped to Drt > SLU
Brn > Prn flipped to Prn > Brn
Actuals noted by *

Trotsky
Not sure about the games not directly involving our prey.

Shouldn't we root for St. Lawrence over Harvard? We aren't likely to catch St. Lawrence, we don't want Harvard to catch us, and well, it's Harvard.

nyc94

Trotsky
Not sure about the games not directly involving our prey.

Shouldn't we root for St. Lawrence over Harvard? We aren't likely to catch St. Lawrence, we don't want Harvard to catch us, and well, it's Harvard.

Besides, even if Harvard were 7 points behind us instead of 3 you'd want to root against just because.

nyc94

Trotsky
Not sure about the games not directly involving our prey.

Shouldn't we root for St. Lawrence over Harvard? We aren't likely to catch St. Lawrence, we don't want Harvard to catch us, and well, it's Harvard.

Other than it being Harvard, I was thinking in terms of the tiebreak effects of top/middle/bottom four (which still exist, I think?)

I'm proceeding under the assumption that if we are worrying about Harvard then it's all gone to hell anyway.

I think I would root for Princeton over Brown. The Big Red is going to have to climb over Brown and somebody to get home ice for the first round (likely a pipe dream but what the hey...) and right now, Clarkson offers a slightly easier path than Princeton does. Cornell loses the head-to-head tie with Princeton, but the one against Clarkson will probably come down to record against the top 4, which would probably favor the Big Red, especially if Dartmouth is among the top 4.

Give My Regards
I think I would root for Princeton over Brown. The Big Red is going to have to climb over Brown and somebody to get home ice for the first round (likely a pipe dream but what the hey...) and right now, Clarkson offers a slightly easier path than Princeton does. Cornell loses the head-to-head tie with Princeton, but the one against Clarkson will probably come down to record against the top 4, which would probably favor the Big Red, especially if Dartmouth is among the top 4.

Which would also dictate rooting for Dartmouth over SLU. Thanks.

I have changed those results above.

Standings after Friday's games:

 5. 19 Clarkson
    19 Dartmouth
    19 Yale
 8. 17 Brown
    17 Princeton
10. 15 Colgate
    15 Cornell

Saturday, February 23:

  Brown     at Quinnipiac
  Dartmouth at St. Lawrence
  Harvard   at Clarkson
  RPI       at Colgate
  Union     at Cornell
  Yale      at Princeton

Fun fact: it is possible for all 7 teams to be separated by just 2 points after tomorrow night.

According to the 2/23 ECAC Hockey weekend update, it's possible for 10 of the 12 teams to finish anywhere from a first-round bye to a first-round road series. Quinnipiac has obviously already wrapped up the top seed, and Harvard can't finish higher than 10th.

Give My Regards
According to the 2/23 ECAC Hockey weekend update, it's possible for 10 of the 12 teams to finish anywhere from a first-round bye to a first-round road series. Quinnipiac has obviously already wrapped up the top seed, and Harvard can't finish higher than 10th.

Unfortunately I suspect that none of these stories do more than say Cornell has 15 pts and Union, the fourth place team, has 20. Since we can get 6 more points, we could get ahead of them and finish fourth. But none of that takes into account what the other teams would do. Some of them have to win as well, and would likely get ahead of us. Short of having our good old reliable ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script, it's too time consuming for me too figure out. However, I suspect we can't get a bye. After tonight it'll be a lot easier to see.

Side note, there is a North Dakota substitute for the playoff program, but it doesn't do tie breakers. I'll wait till tonight.

Jim Hyla
Unfortunately I suspect that none of these stories do more than say Cornell has 15 pts and Union, the fourth place team, has 20. Since we can get 6 more points, we could get ahead of them and finish fourth. But none of that takes into account what the other teams would do. Some of them have to win as well, and would likely get ahead of us. Short of having our good old reliable ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script, it's too time consuming for me too figure out. However, I suspect we can't get a bye. After tonight it'll be a lot easier to see.

Yeah, that thought occurred to me. I certainly didn't check all the scenarios, but just for the hell of it, I did find a way in which Cornell could still get a bye. Predictably, this gets bumpy, but here's what we want:

2/23:
Cornell over Union
Quinnipiac over Brown
St. Lawrence over Dartmouth
Harvard over Clarkson
Yale and Princeton tie
RPI-Colgate -- don't really care, give it to RPI to take Colgate out of the picture

3/1:
Cornell over Brown
Colgate over Yale
RPI over Clarkson
Princeton over Dartmouth
St. Lawrence over Union
Quinnipiac-Harvard -- don't really care, give it to Quinnipiac

3/2:
Cornell over Yale
Colgate over Brown
Quinnipiac over Dartmouth
Harvard over Princeton
Clarkson and Union tie
St. Lawrence-RPI -- don't really care, give it to St. Lawrence

...which gives these final standings:

40 Quinnipiac
28 St. Lawrence
25 RPI
21 Cornell
21 Union
20 Clarkson
20 Princeton
20 Yale
19 Colgate
19 Dartmouth
17 Brown
14 Harvard

with Cornell taking #4 over Union thanks to a 2-0 head-to-head record. (Don't know or care about the other ties)

It's a measure of how freaking unlikely this whole scenario is to note that, if the above does play out, it will be the first time since the ECAC-HE split, and probably the first time in league history, that the #4 seed finished with a sub-0.500 league record.

Give My Regards

Jim Hyla
Unfortunately I suspect that none of these stories do more than say Cornell has 15 pts and Union, the fourth place team, has 20. Since we can get 6 more points, we could get ahead of them and finish fourth. But none of that takes into account what the other teams would do. Some of them have to win as well, and would likely get ahead of us. Short of having our good old reliable ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script, it's too time consuming for me too figure out. However, I suspect we can't get a bye. After tonight it'll be a lot easier to see.

Yeah, that thought occurred to me. I certainly didn't check all the scenarios, but just for the hell of it, I did find a way in which Cornell could still get a bye. Predictably, this gets bumpy, but here's what we want:

2/23:
Cornell over Union
Quinnipiac over Brown
St. Lawrence over Dartmouth
Harvard over Clarkson
Yale and Princeton tie
RPI-Colgate -- don't really care, give it to RPI to take Colgate out of the picture

3/1:
Cornell over Brown
Colgate over Yale
RPI over Clarkson
Princeton over Dartmouth
St. Lawrence over Union
Quinnipiac-Harvard -- don't really care, give it to Quinnipiac

3/2:
Cornell over Yale
Colgate over Brown
Quinnipiac over Dartmouth
Harvard over Princeton
Clarkson and Union tie
St. Lawrence-RPI -- don't really care, give it to St. Lawrence

...which gives these final standings:

40 Quinnipiac
28 St. Lawrence
25 RPI
21 Cornell
21 Union
20 Clarkson
20 Princeton
20 Yale
19 Colgate
19 Dartmouth
17 Brown
14 Harvard

with Cornell taking #4 over Union thanks to a 2-0 head-to-head record. (Don't know or care about the other ties)

It's a measure of how freaking unlikely this whole scenario is to note that, if the above does play out, it will be the first time since the ECAC-HE split, and probably the first time in league history, that the #4 seed finished with a sub-0.500 league record.

Thanks, you have more energy than I do.

Jim Hyla

Give My Regards

Jim Hyla
Unfortunately I suspect that none of these stories do more than say Cornell has 15 pts and Union, the fourth place team, has 20. Since we can get 6 more points, we could get ahead of them and finish fourth. But none of that takes into account what the other teams would do. Some of them have to win as well, and would likely get ahead of us. Short of having our good old reliable ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script, it's too time consuming for me too figure out. However, I suspect we can't get a bye. After tonight it'll be a lot easier to see.

Yeah, that thought occurred to me. I certainly didn't check all the scenarios, but just for the hell of it, I did find a way in which Cornell could still get a bye. Predictably, this gets bumpy, but here's what we want:

2/23:
Cornell over Union
Quinnipiac over Brown
St. Lawrence over Dartmouth
Harvard over Clarkson
Yale and Princeton tie
RPI-Colgate -- don't really care, give it to RPI to take Colgate out of the picture

3/1:
Cornell over Brown
Colgate over Yale
RPI over Clarkson
Princeton over Dartmouth
St. Lawrence over Union
Quinnipiac-Harvard -- don't really care, give it to Quinnipiac

3/2:
Cornell over Yale
Colgate over Brown
Quinnipiac over Dartmouth
Harvard over Princeton
Clarkson and Union tie
St. Lawrence-RPI -- don't really care, give it to St. Lawrence

...which gives these final standings:

40 Quinnipiac
28 St. Lawrence
25 RPI
21 Cornell
21 Union
20 Clarkson
20 Princeton
20 Yale
19 Colgate
19 Dartmouth
17 Brown
14 Harvard

with Cornell taking #4 over Union thanks to a 2-0 head-to-head record. (Don't know or care about the other ties)

It's a measure of how freaking unlikely this whole scenario is to note that, if the above does play out, it will be the first time since the ECAC-HE split, and probably the first time in league history, that the #4 seed finished with a sub-0.500 league record.

Thanks, you have more energy than I do.

And more optimism than I have. I'm resigned to 1st round playoff games on the road.

Give My Regards

Jim Hyla
Unfortunately I suspect that none of these stories do more than say Cornell has 15 pts and Union, the fourth place team, has 20. Since we can get 6 more points, we could get ahead of them and finish fourth. But none of that takes into account what the other teams would do. Some of them have to win as well, and would likely get ahead of us. Short of having our good old reliable ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script, it's too time consuming for me too figure out. However, I suspect we can't get a bye. After tonight it'll be a lot easier to see.

Yeah, that thought occurred to me. I certainly didn't check all the scenarios, but just for the hell of it, I did find a way in which Cornell could still get a bye. Predictably, this gets bumpy, but here's what we want:

2/23:
Cornell over Union
Quinnipiac over Brown
St. Lawrence over Dartmouth
Harvard over Clarkson
Yale and Princeton tie
RPI-Colgate -- don't really care, give it to RPI to take Colgate out of the picture

3/1:
Cornell over Brown
Colgate over Yale
RPI over Clarkson
Princeton over Dartmouth
St. Lawrence over Union
Quinnipiac-Harvard -- don't really care, give it to Quinnipiac

3/2:
Cornell over Yale
Colgate over Brown
Quinnipiac over Dartmouth
Harvard over Princeton
Clarkson and Union tie
St. Lawrence-RPI -- don't really care, give it to St. Lawrence

...which gives these final standings:

40 Quinnipiac
28 St. Lawrence
25 RPI
21 Cornell
21 Union
20 Clarkson
20 Princeton
20 Yale
19 Colgate
19 Dartmouth
17 Brown
14 Harvard

with Cornell taking #4 over Union thanks to a 2-0 head-to-head record. (Don't know or care about the other ties)

It's a measure of how freaking unlikely this whole scenario is to note that, if the above does play out, it will be the first time since the ECAC-HE split, and probably the first time in league history, that the #4 seed finished with a sub-0.500 league record.

Actually, the second tie, Clarkson vs. Union, is unnecessary. (Good, because ties are a bit rare.)

If we tie Clarkson, we'll beat them on the top 4 (3) with that top 4 (3) scenario.

Indeed, if we win out, the only team that we tie unfavorably with would be Princeton, I think, because we have a comparatively good record vs. SLU and RPI. (And everyone has a poor record vs. Quinnipiac.)

Whelp, great weekend. Unfortunately, our outside chance at a first-round bye has slipped away with Yale's victory, given that wins are the first tiebreak past head-to-head now.

Impressive 2 weekends for Cornell, with 7 of 8 points. Here are the points we have gained on our standings rivals in just 2 weekends:

21 Drt 3
21 Yal 5
20 Uni 3
19 Clk 3
18 Brn 4
17 Cor -
17 Prn 7
15 Col 5

Scersk '97
Whelp, great weekend. Unfortunately, our outside chance at a first-round bye has slipped away with Yale's victory, given that wins are the first tiebreak past head-to-head now.

I'm hoping Cornell (4 points) and Princeton (4 points) win out, Dartmouth (0 points) loses to QC, Union ties SLU, Clarkson (2 points) beats Union (1 point) and loses to RPI, and Colgate beats Yale (0 points). I believe that puts everyone from 4th through 9th at 21 points.

I'll leave it to someone else to figure out the tiebreakers if that happens. It's entirely possible that will leave Cornell in 9th, in which case I guess I'd like to see Princeton lose/draw against Harvard, which leaves them with at most 20 points.

In the end I think the final standings will be kind of boring, and Cornell's home ice hopes will hinge on beating Brown, not losing to Yale, and the outcome of Princeton/Dartmouth on Friday. Losing to Brown pretty much puts Cornell in the 9-11 range.

We catch a scheduling break which hopefully will matter. The Saturday Brown game will be over before Cornell's begins.

Friday, March 1:
  Colgate              at Yale                 EC            7:00 pm ET
  Clarkson             at RPI                  EC            7:00 pm ET
  Cornell              at Brown                EC            7:00 pm ET
  Princeton            at Dartmouth            EC            7:00 pm ET
  Quinnipiac           at Harvard              EC            7:00 pm ET
  St. Lawrence         at Union                EC            7:00 pm ET

Saturday, March 2:
  Colgate              at Brown                EC            4:00 pm ET
  Clarkson             at Union                EC            7:00 pm ET
  Cornell              at Yale                 EC            7:00 pm ET
  Princeton            at Harvard              EC            7:00 pm ET
  Quinnipiac           at Dartmouth            EC            7:00 pm ET
  St. Lawrence         at RPI                  EC            7:00 pm ET

Scersk '97
Whelp, great weekend. Unfortunately, our outside chance at a first-round bye has slipped away with Yale's victory, given that wins are the first tiebreak past head-to-head now.

You're not going to believe this, but it looks like the fat lady is still only humming (loudly). While a Cornell-Yale tie goes Yale's way, it is possible for those two to finish in a four-way tie for fourth place along with Dartmouth and either Union or Clarkson... and in that completely ridiculous scenario, head-to-head results would give the #4 seed to the Big Red.

As for Tom's six-way tie, that gets gross, but from 4 to 9, the seeds would go Clarkson, Yale, Princeton, Cornell, Dartmouth, Union.

If we were to win out the regular season and make it to the ECAC finals and lose to QU, is there any real chance we'd get a bid to the NCAA's?

Give My Regards

Scersk '97
Whelp, great weekend. Unfortunately, our outside chance at a first-round bye has nearly slipped away with Yale's victory, given that wins are the first tiebreak past head-to-head now.

You're not going to believe this, but it looks like the fat lady is still only humming (loudly). While a Cornell-Yale tie goes Yale's way, it is possible for those two to finish in a four-way tie for fourth place along with Dartmouth and either Union or Clarkson... and in that completely ridiculous scenario, head-to-head results would give the #4 seed to the Big Red.

As for Tom's six-way tie, that gets gross, but from 4 to 9, the seeds would go Clarkson, Yale, Princeton, Cornell, Dartmouth, Union.

Oh, I believe it and am happy to hear it. Should've thought to investigate the further ties. Let's edit that quote.

(Indeed, time to go to sleep. I wasn't even thinking about head-to-heads... at all. Where's my script! Too dang complicated for old brain.)

Swampy
If we were to win out the regular season and make it to the ECAC finals and lose to QU, is there any real chance we'd get a bid to the NCAA's?

I would have to imagine not, but what if we beat QU earlier on and then lost to someone else? That might give us more of a boost.

While it's probably impossible, the best scenario would be taking two from Q. Might also help if the series went three games.

Swampy
If we were to win out the regular season and make it to the ECAC finals and lose to QU, is there any real chance we'd get a bid to the NCAA's?

I think at 7-1 the rest of the way we'd be borderline. It would depend on a lot of results outside our control. not only the records of all those teams above us, but things such as whether Colorado College and Colgate remained TUCs. Also, with things being so wide open this year, a team not in the top 16 may very well win its tournament, which would lessen the chances if we don't win the ECACs.

jkahn

Swampy
If we were to win out the regular season and make it to the ECAC finals and lose to QU, is there any real chance we'd get a bid to the NCAA's?

I think at 7-1 the rest of the way we'd be borderline. It would depend on a lot of results outside our control. not only the records of all those teams above us, but things such as whether Colorado College and Colgate remained TUCs. Also, with things being so wide open this year, a team not in the top 16 may very well win its tournament, which would lessen the chances if we don't win the ECACs.

Nine days ago I doubt anyone here thought that today we'd be discussing the possibility of making the NCAA tournament without winning the ECAC Championship and our slim chances at still getting a first round bye. What a difference a couple of weekends makes!

Never give up. Never surrender.

the Prin-harv games not being wins could make the difference.. those 3 pts would have given us a shot a 2nd.

upprdeck
the Prin-harv games not being wins could make the difference.. those 3 pts would have given us a shot a 2nd.

That way lies madness. There are also games where we stole points.

upprdeck
the Prin-harv games not being wins could make the difference.. those 3 pts would have given us a shot a 2nd.

Good chance this week to think about 3-4 games we'd like to have back. The come-from-ahead loss to Maine in the Florida tournament looms large. Also getting tied by Dartmouth 1-1 with a minute to play. The OT loss to Yale. And coming back from Denver with zero points.

billhoward

upprdeck
the Prin-harv games not being wins could make the difference.. those 3 pts would have given us a shot a 2nd.

Good chance this week to think about 3-4 games we'd like to have back. The come-from-ahead loss to Maine in the Florida tournament looms large. Also getting tied by Dartmouth 1-1 with a minute to play. The OT loss to Yale. And coming back from Denver with zero points.

If we're gonna play that game, can't we just have back the spring semester. No matter what this late run accomplishes, it doesn't mask that the team didn't show up for a full month and a half.

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!

So basically Cornell needs to beat Brown, and probably beat Yale too, and even then a home playoff series isn't guaranteed. The boys have been playing better lately, though...

Here's the SiouxSports ECAC playoff possibilities program. I don't believe it does tie-breakers, so you'll have to do that yourself. With the closeness of the teams, that could be a lot of work.

edit: Malcolm is back in net for Yale. However 17 saves on 20 shots against Princeton is not up to his standard this year.

From the ashes of slack...

I think it works now. Many thanks to Age for hosting:

[www.elynah.com]
[www.elynah.com]

Give My Regards

Scersk '97
Whelp, great weekend. Unfortunately, our outside chance at a first-round bye has slipped away with Yale's victory, given that wins are the first tiebreak past head-to-head now.

You're not going to believe this, but it looks like the fat lady is still only humming (loudly). While a Cornell-Yale tie goes Yale's way, it is possible for those two to finish in a four-way tie for fourth place along with Dartmouth and either Union or Clarkson... and in that completely ridiculous scenario, head-to-head results would give the #4 seed to the Big Red.

As for Tom's six-way tie, that gets gross, but from 4 to 9, the seeds would go Clarkson, Yale, Princeton, Cornell, Dartmouth, Union.

Technically speaking you don't need Union or Clarkson. A three-way tiebreaker between Cornell and Yale and Dartmouth would also go to Cornell, but as far as I can figure the only way that happens is a three-way tie for fifth with Union in 4th, and where's the fun in that?

It's an implausible scenario, but not an impossible one that requires Harvard to beat Quinnipiac or anything. Though it does require them not to lose to Princeton. Actually, the most implausible part (much as I hate to say it) might be Cornell winning at Yale and Brown after getting no points from that home weekend. That puts Cornell at 21 points, tied with what Yale and Dartmouth already have. Beyond that:

- Quinnipiac-Harvard doesn't matter, but call it a Quinnipiac win for the sake of argument.
- Colgate needs to beat Yale to keep Yale at 21 points. Also implausible.
- Dartmouth needs to lose to both Quinnipiac (entirely likely) and Princeton (less likely but not implausible) to stay at 21 points.
- Harvard needs to at least tie Princeton (somewhat implausible); if Princeton wins, they're in the tie at 21 points too, and that screws up the tiebreaker for Cornell because they swept Cornell.
- Colgate-Brown doesn't matter (going with the above assumptions). Call it a tie for the sake of argument.
- St. Lawrence-RPI doesn't matter (again going with the above assumptions), call it a tie.
- Our three unresolved games now are Clarkson-RPI, St. Lawrence-Union, Clarkson-Union. Union can't pick up more than one point, or they finish with 22 points or more, ahead of Cornell and Yale and Dartmouth. Also, Clarkson can't beat RPI, or they'll have 21 points before their game with Union, and one of them will finish with over 21. Scenarios that are left:

RPI beats Clarkson, St. Lawrence beats Union, Clarkson beats Union: Clarkson joins a four-way tie, Cornell wins tiebreaker
RPI beats Clarkson, St. Lawrence beats Union, Clarkson ties Union: Union joins a four-way tie, Cornell wins tiebreaker
RPI beats Clarkson, St. Lawrence ties Union, Clarkson beats Union: Clarkson and Union join a five-way tie, Cornell wins tiebreaker
RPI ties Clarkson, St. Lawrence beats Union, Clarkson beats Union: Clarkson finishes alone in fourth with 22 points
RPI ties Clarkson, St. Lawrence beats Union, Clarkson ties Union: Clarkson and Union join a five-way tie, Cornell wins tiebreaker
RPI ties Clarkson, St. Lawrence ties Union, Clarkson beats Union: Clarkson finishes alone in fourth with 22 points

If you add Princeton to any of the above ties (whether to form a five-way tie or a six-way tie), Yale wins the tiebreaker by virtue of their addition.

So if you want to see the implausible first-round bye, on Friday root for:
Cornell over Brown, for obvious reasons.
Quinnipiac over Harvard, because it doesn't matter so root against Harvard.
Colgate over Yale, to keep Yale at 21 points.
Princeton over Dartmouth, to keep Dartmouth at 21 points.
RPI over Clarkson, because a Clarkson win knocks Cornell out of contention for a bye and a tie makes it difficult.
St. Lawrence over Union, because a Union win knocks Cornell out of contention for a bye and a tie makes it difficult.

Then on Saturday root for:
Cornell over Yale, for obvious reasons.
Harvard over Princeton, because a Princeton win (coupled with one on Friday) adds them to the tiebreaker and knocks Cornell out of contention for a bye.
Quinnipiac over Dartmouth, to keep Dartmouth at 21 points.
Clarkson not to lose to Union, with the particulars depending on the Friday results.
As noted above, the Colgate-Brown and St. Lawrence-RPI games don't matter, so take your pick.

Sorry about the marathon post. One more hypothetical situation: if Cornell beats Brown and doesn't lose to Yale, and every other game is won by the team higher in the standings, Cornell would finish in 7th. So take heart, and have faith in our guys, and maybe something good will happen.

Josh '99

Give My Regards

Scersk '97
Whelp, great weekend. Unfortunately, our outside chance at a first-round bye has slipped away with Yale's victory, given that wins are the first tiebreak past head-to-head now.

You're not going to believe this, but it looks like the fat lady is still only humming (loudly). While a Cornell-Yale tie goes Yale's way, it is possible for those two to finish in a four-way tie for fourth place along with Dartmouth and either Union or Clarkson... and in that completely ridiculous scenario, head-to-head results would give the #4 seed to the Big Red.

As for Tom's six-way tie, that gets gross, but from 4 to 9, the seeds would go Clarkson, Yale, Princeton, Cornell, Dartmouth, Union.

Technically speaking you don't need Union or Clarkson. A three-way tiebreaker between Cornell and Yale and Dartmouth would also go to Cornell, but as far as I can figure the only way that happens is a three-way tie for fifth with Union in 4th, and where's the fun in that?

It's an implausible scenario, but not an impossible one that requires Harvard to beat Quinnipiac or anything. Though it does require them not to lose to Princeton. Actually, the most implausible part (much as I hate to say it) might be Cornell winning at Yale and Brown after getting no points from that home weekend. That puts Cornell at 21 points, tied with what Yale and Dartmouth already have. Beyond that:

- Quinnipiac-Harvard doesn't matter, but call it a Quinnipiac win for the sake of argument.
- Colgate needs to beat Yale to keep Yale at 21 points. Also implausible.
- Dartmouth needs to lose to both Quinnipiac (entirely likely) and Princeton (less likely but not implausible) to stay at 21 points.
- Harvard needs to at least tie Princeton (somewhat implausible); if Princeton wins, they're in the tie at 21 points too, and that screws up the tiebreaker for Cornell because they swept Cornell.
- Colgate-Brown doesn't matter (going with the above assumptions). Call it a tie for the sake of argument.
- St. Lawrence-RPI doesn't matter (again going with the above assumptions), call it a tie.
- Our three unresolved games now are Clarkson-RPI, St. Lawrence-Union, Clarkson-Union. Union can't pick up more than one point, or they finish with 22 points or more, ahead of Cornell and Yale and Dartmouth. Also, Clarkson can't beat RPI, or they'll have 21 points before their game with Union, and one of them will finish with over 21. Scenarios that are left:

RPI beats Clarkson, St. Lawrence beats Union, Clarkson beats Union: Clarkson joins a four-way tie, Cornell wins tiebreaker
RPI beats Clarkson, St. Lawrence beats Union, Clarkson ties Union: Union joins a four-way tie, Cornell wins tiebreaker
RPI beats Clarkson, St. Lawrence ties Union, Clarkson beats Union: Clarkson and Union join a five-way tie, Cornell wins tiebreaker
RPI ties Clarkson, St. Lawrence beats Union, Clarkson beats Union: Clarkson finishes alone in fourth with 22 points
RPI ties Clarkson, St. Lawrence beats Union, Clarkson ties Union: Clarkson and Union join a five-way tie, Cornell wins tiebreaker
RPI ties Clarkson, St. Lawrence ties Union, Clarkson beats Union: Clarkson finishes alone in fourth with 22 points

If you add Princeton to any of the above ties (whether to form a five-way tie or a six-way tie), Yale wins the tiebreaker by virtue of their addition.

So if you want to see the implausible first-round bye, on Friday root for:
Cornell over Brown, for obvious reasons.
Quinnipiac over Harvard, because it doesn't matter so root against Harvard.
Colgate over Yale, to keep Yale at 21 points.
Princeton over Dartmouth, to keep Dartmouth at 21 points.
RPI over Clarkson, because a Clarkson win knocks Cornell out of contention for a bye and a tie makes it difficult.
St. Lawrence over Union, because a Union win knocks Cornell out of contention for a bye and a tie makes it difficult.

Then on Saturday root for:
Cornell over Yale, for obvious reasons.
Harvard over Princeton, because a Princeton win (coupled with one on Friday) adds them to the tiebreaker and knocks Cornell out of contention for a bye.
Quinnipiac over Dartmouth, to keep Dartmouth at 21 points.
Clarkson not to lose to Union, with the particulars depending on the Friday results.
As noted above, the Colgate-Brown and St. Lawrence-RPI games don't matter, so take your pick.

Sorry about the marathon post. One more hypothetical situation: if Cornell beats Brown and doesn't lose to Yale, and every other game is won by the team higher in the standings, Cornell would finish in 7th. So take heart, and have faith in our guys, and maybe something good will happen.

Thanks, but I might root for Harvard over Q, to give them some idea that they could beat PU.

Jim Hyla
Thanks, but I might root for Harvard over Q, to give them some idea that they could beat PU.

Good though, although with the inflated self-worth of a typical Hahvahd man, I don't know if we need to worry about confidence being an issue.

Josh, a) awesome post (thank god you didn't send it as multiple tweets) and b) good to see work doesn't get in the way of what's important.

Also nice with the one line summary about how a win at Brown and tie/better at Yale is good for seventh (at least, I think). That was easy to understand.

billhoward

Also nice with the one line summary about how a win at Brown and tie/better at Yale is good for seventh (at least, I think). That was easy to understand.

I think you think wrong there, Bill.

Josh said: "One more hypothetical situation: if Cornell beats Brown and doesn't lose to Yale, and every other game is won by the team higher in the standings, Cornell would finish in 7th."

Every other game being won by the team higher in the standings is one huge "if."

Josh's post was great. I just didn't want anyone to read your comment, Bill, on the summary and misinterpret it. Beating Brown and taking at least a point at Yale does not give us a lock on 7th.

andyw2100
Josh's post was great.

Really? I thought it was blathering and overlong, but what does my opinion matter?

andyw2100

billhoward

Also nice with the one line summary about how a win at Brown and tie/better at Yale is good for seventh (at least, I think). That was easy to understand.

I think you think wrong there, Bill.

Josh said: "One more hypothetical situation: if Cornell beats Brown and doesn't lose to Yale, and every other game is won by the team higher in the standings, Cornell would finish in 7th."

Every other game being won by the team higher in the standings is one huge "if."

Josh's post was great. I just didn't want anyone to read your comment, Bill, on the summary and misinterpret it. Beating Brown and taking at least a point at Yale does not give us a lock on 7th.

As in: a team lower than / even with Cornell could pick up points and get past us or make up an unfavorable H2H comparison (Princeton, 1 point back)? If so, makes sense.

Josh '99

andyw2100
Josh's post was great.

Really? I thought it was blathering and overlong, but what does my opinion matter?

It can be both. Some of us have made a posting career of it.

billhoward

andyw2100

billhoward

Also nice with the one line summary about how a win at Brown and tie/better at Yale is good for seventh (at least, I think). That was easy to understand.

I think you think wrong there, Bill.

Josh said: "One more hypothetical situation: if Cornell beats Brown and doesn't lose to Yale, and every other game is won by the team higher in the standings, Cornell would finish in 7th."

Every other game being won by the team higher in the standings is one huge "if."

Josh's post was great. I just didn't want anyone to read your comment, Bill, on the summary and misinterpret it. Beating Brown and taking at least a point at Yale does not give us a lock on 7th.

As in: a team lower than / even with Cornell could pick up points and get past us or make up an unfavorable H2H comparison (Princeton, 1 point back)? If so, makes sense.

Cornell and Princeton both have 17 points right now. If both win out it's possible for them to finish the season tied for 8th with 21 points, in which case Princeton would host Cornell in the first round by virtue of having a better H2H record.