ECAC first round playoffs - likely winners

OK, pick the winners in this weekend's March 3-4-5 best-of-three series:

 9 Princeton       at 8 Clarkson      7:00 pm (Friday)   
10 Quinnipiac      at 7 Rensselaer    7:00 pm    
11 Yale            at 6 Union         7:00 pm    
12 Brown           at 5 St. Lawrence  7:30 pm

Cornell gets to play the third-lowest seeded survivor. If this goes by form, it's RPI. If 5, 6, or 7 loses, it could be Clarkson. [edit correction:] If all goes according form, Cornell as #3 plays #6 Union, else RPI, else Clarkson depending on who else falters. Top seeds 1-2-3-4 are Dartmouth, Colgate, Cornell, Harvard.

>>> [www.ecachockeyleague.com] The Big Green won the tiebreaker vs. the Raiders and will be the No. 1 seed heading into the playoffs. Colgate is No. 2, while Cornell is No. 3 and Harvard is No. 4.

Princeton, Q, Yale, St. Larry

Bill I think you mean we'd play Union if all went according to the seeding.


My picks,

SLU, Union, RPI, Clarkson

i'll go out on a limb here... Clarkson over Prineton, SLU beats brown, Yale bullies Union around and advances, and by some sick twist of fate, RPI stumbles and QU wins it in three.

billhoward
OK, pick the winners in this weekend's March 3-4-5 best-of-three series:

 9 Princeton       at 8 Clarkson      7:00 pm (Friday)   
10 Quinnipiac      at 7 Rensselaer    7:00 pm    
11 Yale            at 6 Union         7:00 pm    
12 Brown           at 5 St. Lawrence  7:30 pm

Cornell gets to play the third-lowest seeded survivor. If this goes by form, it's RPI. If 5, 6, or 7 loses, it could be Clarkson.

Our possible opponents:

Qpc (Yal and Brn win)
Prn (Exactly 2 among Qpc, Yal and Brn win)
Clk (Exactly 2 among Qpc, Yal and Brn win)
RPI (Yal or Brn win)
UC (SLU wins)

I think all 4 hosts win. In decreasing order of confidence, SLU > Clk > UC > RPI

My math failed me on the initial post. Among the four survivors, top-seeded Colgate plays the lowest ranked, Dartmouth plays second-lowest ranked, Cornell plays third-lowest ranked. It would be impossible for us to play Brown or Yale and improbable that we play Quinnipiac.

Each host team is likely to win. I don't think all four will win. Yale could take out Union. Princeton over Clarkson is not beyond the realm of possible. Brown over St. Lawrence ain't going to happen even if Yann Denis discovered a magical fifth year of eligibility for Bruno.

In my column, I picked:

SLU in 2
Yale in 3
Quinnipiac in 3
Clarkson in 2

[q] Each host team is likely to win. I don't think all four will win. [/q]It's the ECAC so it's very likely that there will be at least one upset. But I don't think I can pick any specific upset in the first round except maybe Union because of their less than stellar playoff history.

billhoward
My math failed me on the initial post. Among the four survivors, top-seeded Colgate plays the lowest ranked, Dartmouth plays second-lowest ranked, Cornell plays third-lowest ranked. It would be impossible for us to play Brown or Yale and improbable that we play Quinnipiac.

Sorry, Bill, but it wasn't just the math that failed you. Colgate is the number two seed, behind Dartmouth.

[www.uscho.com]
Andy W.

[board.uscho.com]

I'll take SLU (2), Clarkson (2), QU (2) and Union (3)

Let's not discount the fact that Union has NEVER won a playoff series in their ECAC history and they have been hosts on at least two occasions. That can weigh heavily on a team.

I like SLU (2), RPI (3), Yale (3), and Clarkson (2)

dford'94
Let's not discount the fact that Union has NEVER won a playoff series in their ECAC history and they have been hosts on at least two occasions. That can weigh heavily on a team.

Or they could use it as more motivation.

Union history of playoff ineptitude:

94 #6 QF #3 RPI
95 #10 1R #7 Princeton
97 #5 QF #4 RPI
00 #10 1R #1 St. Lawrence
01 #9 1R #2 St. Lawrence
03 #6 1R #11 RPI (hosted)
04 #8 1R #9 Clarkson (hosted)
05 #8 1R #9 Clarkson (hosted)

Interesting to note that Union seems to have become a steady middle of the pack ECAC team, as opposed to their first 10 years of bottom dwelling. They've finished 6, 8, 8, 6 over the last four years, getting first round home ice each time. Previously they had two 5-6 finishes, three 9-10 and five 11-12 in 10 seasons. Whether this reflects well on Union or negatively on the ECAC I leave to the reader.

KeithK
Interesting to note that Union seems to have become a steady middle of the pack ECAC team, as opposed to their first 10 years of bottom dwelling. They've finished 6, 8, 8, 6 over the last four years, getting first round home ice each time. Previously they had two 5-6 finishes, three 9-10 and five 11-12 in 10 seasons. Whether this reflects well on Union or negatively on the ECAC I leave to the reader.

I think it may just come down to Trevor Koenig and Kris Mayotte. Put an excellent goaltender behind a 9-12 team and you've got a 5-8 team.

Trotsky

KeithK
Interesting to note that Union seems to have become a steady middle of the pack ECAC team, as opposed to their first 10 years of bottom dwelling. They've finished 6, 8, 8, 6 over the last four years, getting first round home ice each time. Previously they had two 5-6 finishes, three 9-10 and five 11-12 in 10 seasons. Whether this reflects well on Union or negatively on the ECAC I leave to the reader.

I think it may just come down to Trevor Koenig and Kris Mayotte. Put an excellent goaltender behind a 9-12 team and you've got a 5-8 team.

No, no, no! Goaltenders are just a product of the defensive system! How can you still not know this?

But seriously, that's a good point. We'll see how the Dutchmen fare without Mayotte next season.

Here's another way of determining Cornell's next opponent:

Exactly 0 upsets (all higher seeds advance)
Union

Exactly 1 upset
Union (if Princeton or QU wins)
RPI (if Yale or Brown wins)

Exactly 2 upsets
Union (if both Princeton and QU win)
RPI (if Princeton and Yale OR Princeton and Brown win)
Clarkson (if QU and Brown OR QU and Yale OR Yale and Brown win)

Exactly 3 upsets
QU (if QU, Brown and Yale win)
Princeton (all other three combinations)

Exactly 4 upsets (no higher seeds advance)
QU


In sum, in terms of percentage of becoming Cornell's next rival (if I'm not mistaken):
Union (25%)
RPI (25%)
Clarkson (18.75%)
Princeton (18.75%)
Quinnipiac (12.5%)

dford'94
Let's not discount the fact that Union has NEVER won a playoff series in their ECAC history and they have been hosts on at least two occasions.

This could be the series where no one advances.

Yale's ECAC tournament record is abysmal, as well, in that they've failed to get past the first series in their last seven tournaments (three times as the higher seed). Their last advance was in 1998 when, as the #1 seed, it took two last-minute Ray Giroux miracles to avoid being bounced by #10 SLU in the first round.

Al DeFlorio
Yale's ECAC tournament record is abysmal, as well, in that they've failed to get past the first series in their last seven tournaments (three times as the higher seed). Their last advance was in 1998 when, as the #1 seed, it took two last-minute Ray Giroux miracles to avoid being bounced by #10 SLU in the first round.

That was the year they played six postseason games and won only one.

How on earth do you play six post-season games and win only once? Aren't there enough one-and-done games to keep that from happening?

Liz '05
How on earth do you play six post-season games and win only once? Aren't there enough one-and-done games to keep that from happening?

Two OT ties followed by a win against SLU in the ECAC first round. Losses in the ECAC semifinal and consolation. Loss in the NCAA first round.

Am I delusional in thinking that you now need to win or lose a game in the post-season - no ties?

I might be...

Liz '05
How on earth do you play six post-season games and win only once? Aren't there enough one-and-done games to keep that from happening?

You could still tie in the quintafinals in the "first to three points" era. My guess is that you can play 6 and win one by going 1-1-1 in the quints, 0-2 at Placid and 0-1 NCAA. '98 was before my time though...

Liz '05
How on earth do you play six post-season games and win only once? Aren't there enough one-and-done games to keep that from happening?

IIRC, the ECAC tournament first round was first-to-three-points at the time. Yale tied its first two games and then won the third to advance. They then lost the semifinal and final. Fianlly, they lost one game in the NCAA Tourney, for a total record or 1-3-2, or, as JTW wrote, they won one game out of six.

Chris '03
You could still tie in the quintafinals in the "first to three points" era. My guess is that you can play 6 and win one by going 1-1-1 in the quints, 0-2 at Placid and 0-1 NCAA. '98 was before my time though...

You couldn't go 1-1-1 in the three point series because with only one tie someone would have to have had 3 points after two games in the series (one win and one tie).

Liz '05
Am I delusional in thinking that you now need to win or lose a game in the post-season - no ties?

For quite some time it was "first to three points advances."

Usually I can count...

1-1-1, 1-0-2... either way the race to three points is dumb.

ursaminor
They [Yale] then lost the semifinal and final.

That would have been one unusual tournament structure.

Changed predictions, anyone, after Friday's games?

 9 Princeton       at 8 Clarkson      Clarkson 2-1
10 Quinnipiac      at 7 Rensselaer    Fighting Deerticks, 2-1
11 Yale            at 6 Union         Yale 2-1 OT
12 Brown           at 5 St. Lawrence  St. Lawrence 3-2 OT

Princeton outshot Clarkson, 24-19. This one's going three games. Clarkson managed to serve 23 minutes of penalties on just six calls. Would it be easier just to fit the team with green and yellow ankle bracelets? 1,283 fans showed up. Way to support your team. (Okay, it's spring break. What would attendance be at Lynah over spring break -- 3,835?)

Union outshot Yale 41-31 and still found a way to lose. Yale got the winner 9:21 into overtime. Union must have the worst playoff record of any team never to make the SI cover. Attendance 1375.

Could it be that no Albany teams make it to Albany? Quinnipiac got 2 in the first. RPI scored in the third. This is the team that shut out Cornell? Attendance 2101.

For Brown, Adam D'Alba made 51 saves in the 3-2 OT loss to top-seeded (among the eight playing this wekend) St. Lawrence. No way will magic strike twice in the next two nights and allow Brown to advance. Had Brown won Friday, maybe they could have gotten lucky tonight or tomorrow. Warm up the bus. (As if in Canton you'd ever want to turn off a diesel engine in winter.) Attendance, 2322

i think this will happen 2nite:
clarkson wins
Q wins
onion wins
slu(t) wins

billhoward
Changed predictions, anyone, after Friday's games?

 9 Princeton       at 8 Clarkson      Clarkson 2-1
10 Quinnipiac      at 7 Rensselaer    Fighting Deerticks, 2-1
11 Yale            at 6 Union         Yale 2-1 OT
12 Brown           at 5 St. Lawrence  St. Lawrence 3-2 OT

Princeton outshot Clarkson, 24-19. This one's going three games. Clarkson managed to serve 23 minutes of penalties on just six calls. Would it be easier just to fit the team with green and yellow ankle bracelets? 1,283 fans showed up. Way to support your team. (Okay, it's spring break. What would attendance be at Lynah over spring break -- 3,835?)

Ok, give it a rest. lol...

Both student and town population are much larger in Ithaca than in Potsdam. Sounds like all the "extra" pen mins came when Weller had the book thrown at him.

Rich S

billhoward
Changed predictions, anyone, after Friday's games?

 9 Princeton       at 8 Clarkson      Clarkson 2-1
10 Quinnipiac      at 7 Rensselaer    Fighting Deerticks, 2-1
11 Yale            at 6 Union         Yale 2-1 OT
12 Brown           at 5 St. Lawrence  St. Lawrence 3-2 OT

Princeton outshot Clarkson, 24-19. This one's going three games. Clarkson managed to serve 23 minutes of penalties on just six calls. Would it be easier just to fit the team with green and yellow ankle bracelets? 1,283 fans showed up. Way to support your team. (Okay, it's spring break. What would attendance be at Lynah over spring break -- 3,835?)

Ok, give it a rest. lol... Both student and town population are much larger in Ithaca than in Potsdam. Sounds like all the "extra" [sic] pen mins came when Weller had the book thrown at him.

Did they give Weller crayons to fill it in? Is this the same Weller of soldering iron fame and fortune?

(Rich, I checked the Clarkson academic calendar (and I won't say anything about oxymorons) to see if it was spring break, which it was, before dinging town and gown for the low attendance. At least we gave you that.)

billhoward


Did they give Weller crayons to fill it in? Is this the same Weller of soldering iron fame and fortune?

Yeah, earning a blue collar living and making sure your kid is the first in the family to graduate college... that is something to be ashamed of...what a jerk for chasing the American dream.

Real poor form....bill

Bill,
I think you are going overboard (just my opinion ) and I agree with the CLK posters on this one. Both SLU and CLK were playing at home, and the population without students just can't fill both rinks. If you look back at some of the ECAC championships at LP, when one or another team was there, mainly when CLK was there, the support was great. In fact I used to enjoy it when we and CLK were at the tourney, both bands and good support (ours was better, of course )

I give the NC a lot of credit, small population base supporting two good teams.

Indeed, they're doing a good job supporting two teams with a population even smaller than Ithaca's. I did check and note the spring break as a factor before ribbing Clarkson about drawing just over a thousand fans. That was due diligence.

As for recognizing someone who's a first-generation college student from a blue-collar background, it would be unfair to say he didn't know to use the salad fork or didn't have a $500 Brooks Brothers blazer. (I don't think I owned a non-poly blazer before graduation.) Blue collar, open collar, gold collar family, you should probably be cognizant of what's going to get called as a penalty.

Like I said before, it's great if our upstate neighbors do well because it benefits all of NYS hockey.

(Rich, I checked the Clarkson academic calendar (and I won't say anything about oxymorons) to see if it was spring break, which it was, before dinging town and gown for the low attendance. At least we gave you that.)[/quote]

Yes Bill, we noted that you acknowledged that it was Spring Break but you then mused that Lynah would still be packed if it were break time at cornell. So you still took a cheap shot.

Not quite as cheap as the one you took at Weller.

You might want to note that Tech's Dave Taylor was the first male in his extended family NOT to work in the mines of Northern Ontario. Ever think that's where his superior work ethic came from?

Drew

billhoward


Did they give Weller crayons to fill it in? Is this the same Weller of soldering iron fame and fortune?

Yeah, earning a blue collar living and making sure your kid is the first in the family to graduate college... that is something to be ashamed of...what a jerk for chasing the American dream.

Real poor form....bill

yeah especially since some of us are the first to go to college in their family and then do other things. boy am I ashamed my dad worked overtime to get us thru tough times in the 80s and continued to work on the line at GM creating the opportunity for me to go to cornell.

just like all teams have classless fans, all fans have classless members...

[q](Okay, it's spring break. What would attendance be at Lynah over spring break -- 3,835?)[/q]I'll ignore your other comments, Bill, and just say that if Cornell had a first round playoff game during Spring Break I'd be surprised if it did sell out. There tends to be less interest from non-diehard fans for a team lower in the standings. If Cornell were out of the NCAA picture and in 6th place I bet a lot of folks would just take off for break (if it were SB time).

KeithK
I'll ignore your other comments, Bill, and just say that if Cornell had a first round playoff game during Spring Break I'd be surprised if it did sell out.

The Cornell home series in 2003 was on the first weekend of spring break.

Attendance: 3836, 3836

Now, that wasn't a 'first round' series. And I think the "out of the NCAAs and in 6th place" combined with that would definitely had made a difference - afterall, 2003 was a heck of a season.

But Cornell did indeed sell out two games on the first weekend of spring break, so we deserve credit for that much at least . And I'm proud to say I stayed a few days later for those games (and enjoyed the ones a week later very much too ).

DeltaOne81
Attendance: 3836, 3836

I'm sure it was sold out, as were all games that year. That's not the question that was asked, and calling tickets sold "attendance" is very misleading.

Surely for any given game there are at least (say) 25 people who can't make the game at the last minute, right? I disbelieve that attendance is ever exactly 3836, though it is often greater when people sneak in.

Kyle

krose
I'm sure it was sold out, as were all games that year. That's not the question that was asked, and calling tickets sold "attendance" is very misleading.

I agree, but Keith said "if Cornell had a first round playoff game during Spring Break I'd be surprised if it did sell out." So, color him surprised, huh? Unless he really meant "1st round" with an inherent prerequesite of us not being in the top 4, but since that was mentioned separately, it took it separately.

This isn't to say that I am at all criticizing the NC schools for their attendance this weekend. Distinctly smaller schools and towns, not teams with national at large aspirations really (except maybe SLU but they've mostly lost that by now). I completely understand and also think Bill was wrong.

It also isn't to say that "sold out" means "every seat full".

Its merely to contradict that comment that Cornell wouldn't sell out spring break weekend games either. They could and have.

KeithK
[q](Okay, it's spring break. What would attendance be at Lynah over spring break -- 3,835?)[/q]I'll ignore your other comments, Bill, and just say that if Cornell had a first round playoff game during Spring Break I'd be surprised if it did sell out. There tends to be less interest from non-diehard fans for a team lower in the standings. If Cornell were out of the NCAA picture and in 6th place I bet a lot of folks would just take off for break (if it were SB time).

Over Thanksgiving breaks and winter breaks, exhibitions and regular season, Cornell sells out most every game. I don't recall if Cornell has bumped up against spring break in any of its playoff series of the past five years, but if it has, the rink was full.

From Cornell sports information
The last time the Big Red did not sell out Lynah Rink was Nov. 2, 2001 against Alabama-Huntsville. The building was not exactly empty that night, however, as the attendance was 3,800, or 36 fans short of capacity.

Cornell is bigger than Clarkstown or St. Lawrenceville, but it's not a booming metro area. It helps that you can drive to the game from Rochester or even New York city, soemthing our far-upstate colleagues can't do. Also, all the off-campus housing in Ithaca means it's easier to find a place to stay even if you're in a dorm that's closed. But a lot of the credit should go to the student, faculty, alumni, and townspeople fans who make it a point to get the rink. Cornell is the 1927 Yankees of hockey fandom.

DeltaOne81
It also isn't to say that "sold out" means "every seat full".

On that, you have an excellent point. It would be good to know seats-in-the-building attendance and not just tickets-reported-sold attendance. Teams probably don't do it because they don't see any good coming from it -- for beat writers looking for a soft-news-day column, "Declining Attendance at the Sold-Out Arena" just about writes itself. Pro teams and major colleges that scan each ticket on the way in know attendance instantly. (Plus, if Cornell ever scanned tickets, it might be able to crack down on eBay resales if the seller reported the section/row of the ticket's location. Is that a good or bad idea?)

Was anybody else disappointed to see how many empty seats there were at the Olymics, and not just for the prelim events?

Hollywood Inc. is so nervous about looking good at the Oscars that it has seat-warmers who come in for the ten minutes when Angelie Jolie steps out to powder her nose.

billhoward
Cornell is the 1927 Yankees of hockey fandom.

Please never, ever use the words Cornell hockey and Yankees in the same sentence again. Let's say rather that Clarkson is the 2001 Seattle Mariners of hockey fandom.

DeltaOne81
This isn't to say that I am at all criticizing the NC schools for their attendance this weekend. Distinctly smaller schools and towns, not teams with national at large aspirations really (except maybe SLU but they've mostly lost that by now). I completely understand and also think Bill was wrong.

To be fair, Clarkson has always had trouble selling out Cheel for home QF playoff games, going back to the nationally top-5 teams in the '90s who were regularly packing the arena. There's actually a logical reason for the historically poor QF attendance at Cheel, IMO. Tech students normally get into home games for free, but come playoff time, the league requires schools to charge a certain $ amount. While the school covered part of student costs, they couldn't cover it all, and had to charge students for those games. When poor college students are told that they have to shell out $$ to get something they've been getting for free, you have to expect a lackluster turnout. Especially when it was a forgone conclusion that Clarkson would be playing weak 7-10 seeds and would make Boston/Lake Placid every year anyway. IIRC, some of those games were broadcast on closed-circuit campus TV, so a lot of kids sat in the dorms and still could catch all the action.

Schools such as Cornell who charge students for every game don't see that effect, since they expect to pay an admission charge to attend a hockey game.

However, the townie attendance was very strong for those QF weekends. But now that the Knights aren't as dominant as they were back then, it's natural for the local interest to wane slightly as well.

the free hockey games is what I am looking forward to next year. not that it isn't worth my 15 bucks to sit in lynah, but nothing beats free.

Trotsky

billhoward
Cornell is the 1927 Yankees of hockey fandom.

Please never, ever use the words Cornell hockey and Yankees in the same sentence again. Let's say rather that Clarkson is the 2001 Seattle Mariners of hockey fandom.

Hey, I'm a Sox fan myself, but "2004 Sox of hockey fandom" doesn't have the same impact. (If we were, Theo Epstein would probably have us put Cornell's tuition structure on waivers. Up another 5% this year, I see.)

And the analogy to the unbeaten 1972 Dolphins would be the 1970 Big Red team, not the fans. ... and do you know what it's like having my own children growing up as Yankee fans?

billhoward
Pro teams and major colleges that scan each ticket on the way in know attendance instantly.

Um, there have also existed devices called "turnstiles." Too low-tech for you, I know, Bill, but that's how attendances have been counted in the past, and it's a pretty good system. Even recently, I've seen the Lynah ticket-takers use handheld click-counters. A much higher degree of error, to be sure.

There was a point 5-8 years ago where MLB teams switched from reporting attendances as a gate-count to reporting attendances as ticket sales. The ploy was basically so the MLB marketing monkeys could point out to the media/sponsors how the sport had recovered from the 1994 strike and surpassed pre-strike popularity (excluding the periods of labor talks with the Players' Union, when suddenly the owners became bankrupted paupers...when you look at these *other* numbers).

A fun result of this switch is when the stadium numbers clearly don't match the reported attendance. I remember a meaningless White Sox or Brewers game on a frigid, storm-riddled, late-September weekday afternoon where the attendance was reported to be 28,000 when there couldn't have been more than 400 people in the place. Including the players.

[q]I agree, but Keith said "if Cornell had a first round playoff game during Spring Break I'd be surprised if it did sell out." So, color him surprised, huh? Unless he really meant "1st round" with an inherent prerequesite of us not being in the top 4, but since that was mentioned separately, it took it separately. [/q]I absolutely did mean "first round" as opposed to quarterfinals. I think there's a difference between support for a top 4 teams with national aspirations and a middle of the pack team who gets a home playoff series simply because the league uses a silly system. Of course, we don't have any data to support or refute my theory since thankfully Cornell hasn't been below top 4 since the ECAC went to the 12 team playoff system. My only reference point was the Tuesday night playoff game in 1994, which I'm pretty sure was not a sellout. That's a poor comparison because that was a Tuesday night game, not a weekend.

Other posters have pointed out the attendance vs. tickets sold issue. Considering how Cornell handles playoff ticket sales now - including them in the season ticket package preseason - I have to retract or at least modify my initial statement. Clearly selling most of the tickets months in advance, particularly if hopes for the team were high in October, will make it very likely that QF games over SB would sell out. Lot's of empty seats though. I stand by my statement in the hypothetical case of tickets sold the week of the game though.