Cornell 15th in PWR

We jumped to 15th in PWR after tonight, because of Clarkson and Harvard's wins. Lets say Harvard wins tomorrow, plus our added bonus for wins over Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Harvard. Any chance of cracking 13 in the PWR?

I was able to get Cornell to #10 in the PWR playing around with the bonuses.

Just back from the HE tourney. Great to see Ayers give up four goals, all in the third period. But UMass complicates things. It's a shame somebody had to give up a goal because both goaltenders played great for BU (Fields) and Maine (Howard). Sucks that Howard gets the shutout. All of a sudden we are now the highest PWR team from the ECAC and we aren't in the championship weekend. Right now the .005, .003, .001 bonus puts us into a tie for 14th with CC which, based on the individual comparison, Colorado College would win so that puts us back in 15th.

I haven't done the calculations but wins by Ohio State and Maine have to be good tomorrow. We have a win over Ohio State and a win over Notre Dame who has a win over Maine. Harvard would probably be the better choice for the ECAC.

Well, I'm too tired to think now so I'll look at the numbers in the morning.

[Q]hike Wrote:

I was able to get Cornell to #10 in the PWR playing around with the bonuses. [/Q]

What did you use for bonuses? Were they within the realm of possibility? The model allows you to get them to 6th, but to do so requires that you use numbers like .05, not the more likely .005, etc. I think we'd need the committee's Blood Alcohol Content to be even higher than the bonuses to have them start playing those games.

What would happen if Cornell conceivably got in? I know for a fact that every freshman is at Dave McKee's house in Texas. There must be no way they can get in. I never really bothered to understand the PWR though and being only one spot back, I guess it is possible with OSU, Maine, and Harvard wins tomorrow.

So what would happen if we snuck in. Are 2-3 days of practice going to do it?

I guess they'd have to.

Seems pretty unlikley that we can move any higher. Since the ECAC Tournament winner will not be a top 14 team, that takes another slot away from at large possiblities, meaning that only the top 13 team in PWR will qualify. If UMass wins the HEA tournament today, they might take another slot away from at large qualifiers since that win might not push them into top 13.

The teams on the bubble ahead of us, Michigan State, Notre Dame and Colorado College are all out of their tournaments so they can't lose to help us out. Someone also has to win the Colgate - Dartmouth game today (I assume they can't tie?) and the winner of that game might flip enough comparisons to move ahead of us as well.

I suppose that anything is possible, but I can't develop a situation which would put us in what definitely has to be the top 13 in PWR and possibly the top 12. However, after losing to Clarkson in the series last weekend, we really don't deserve to go anyway.

"Deserving" is a function of the criteria. If they qualify, then they deserve it.

[Q]ice the puck Wrote:

So what would happen if we snuck in. Are 2-3 days of practice going to do it?

[/Q]

Realistically, I hate to say it, but Cornell would get crushed by whatever #1 seed they'd end up playing, likely either Maine or BC. Clarkson's already crushed their spirits and Vesce won't be available. The worst part is, they'd likely end up directly contributing to Howard's falling GAA. :cuss:

For what it's worth, I think it's better for us if Clarkson wins tonight. One loss by Harvard shouldn't drop them out of TUC (and thus cost us two TUC wins), and since we've played Clarkson more times this season, a win by them improves our RPI, while a win by Harvard hurts it, no?

I was wondering the same thing last night after seeing the revised PWR and people started playing games with the bonuses and possible outcomes of other games. I seriously doubt there's any way we get in, but if we did, what has the team been doing? Did they fold up their tents and pack it in after the Clarkson series? Has anyone been practicing in any manner?

Any way you look at it, we'd have a really tough first-round opponent. But sometimes the puck takes a few funny bounces and strange things happen. BC probably never should have lost to BU in HE, but they did. In fact, had Fields hung in, impregnable for a few more minutes in the Beanpot, they'd have won that too. Even the big guys can be taken...but probably not by a team relaxing in Texas.

I don't see how a Harvard win lowers our RPI. But it probably is all moot. Maybe we had a shot at 14th but with a Harvard-Clarkson final, we have no shot at 13th where we have to get to and with UMass in the mix still, well 12 is just not going to happen. If UMass beats Maine they will likely be in the top 16 in the PWR, so UMass is probably not bouncing anybody out of the tournament. Technically, a team like Niagara, unable to bounce out a conference champion would have to bounce out a higher team. Gosh if Howard goes back in net tonight (unlikely), that would be a tough call who to root for. But seeing as Cornell is likely done, I'd vote for UMass and preserving Lenny's record.

Maine's not likely to get the overall #1 seed and thus will probably not wind up playing Holy Cross or Sacred Heart in the first round though 15 and 16 are sort of interchangeable - more so if it's Holy Cross. But can you imagine a Maine-Sacred Heart first round NCAA matchup with Howard in net. I could never bring myself to root for Sacred Heart after the 2000-01 opener. So I guess I'd have to root for an 8-7 Maine win to screw up Howard in that case.

Oh, and to echo what Greg said, the Committee doesn't pick blindly to determine if you deserve to be in. If the numbers are there, you deserve to be in. If they took the top 16 in the PWR straight, Cornell would deserve to be in.

They got an ice rink in their house down in Texas? Guess it's been a while since you'd want to go to a hometown of a Cornell player for a warm Spring Break. Not sure of the weather in Chapman, Australia right now though.

I have a feeling that NOT making it would be better for the development of next year's team. I know tournament experience is good, but so is the hunger and drive that comes from dissapointment (a la last year's team). My w cents.

[Q]Maine's not likely to get the overall #1 seed and thus will probably not wind up playing Holy Cross or Sacred Heart in the first round[/Q]


The overall #1 seed doesn't necessarily end up playing the Atlantic Hockey champ or the CHA champ. Remember?

[Q]Avash '05 Wrote:
The overall #1 seed doesn't necessarily end up playing the Atlantic Hockey champ or the CHA champ. Remember? [/Q]

As of Saturday afternoon, there are no intraconference conflicts between the first and fourth bands (as determined by PWR) and the only host school to make the field, New Hampshire, is definitely a two or a three seed. There is no reason for the top seed not to get the CHA or AHA champion. The only conflict on the horizon is if Colorado College somehow gets up to #13.

The top seed can get Niagara - meaning Maine would get the AHA champ.

Well the argument wasn't whether Maine was likely to get the AHA champion, just the possibility of rooting for Sacred Heart to goals past Howard. Sacred Heart would be 16 if they win. North Dakota (presumably the overall #1) should get Sacred Heart if they win out in Colorado. We all know what happened last year and the displeasure of our coach with the result of playing the 14 seed. Should CC get in which is highly unlikely, you'd have to ship a Sacred Heart or Holy Cross to Grand Rapids with CC in the West.

This is off topic but since people are reading here. I'm watching the ECAC women's tournament on CN8 and the first semifinal is going very long - late in the first OT and currently delayed by a Harvard injury. I know they're scheduled to televise the second women's semifinal which was supposed to have started already but is likely and hour or more behind. Anybody know what happens if the second game is still going on at 8 p.m.? Not to be biased or anything but would like to think the men's game would be shown?

After tonight's games:

13t Notre Dame (Nt)         16 .5344
13t Colorado College (CC)   16 .5322
13t Cornell (Cr)            16 .5250
13t Colgate (Cg)            16 .5190

.002 per quality road win
.003 per quality neutral-ice win
.001 per quality home win

With three AQ's going to teams outside of the top 16 (Harvard, Holy Cross, and Niagara) it looks like CC and ND will fight it out for the last spot.

Damn...still never know what the committe has up their sleeve, any of those four teams could go in.

and also do not forget that when considering the field for the tourney with teams close in the rankings they break things down individually and things get confusing. i doubt cornell will make it. i also doubt that a neutral win will be worth more than a road win. i predict michigan state and notre dame will get in

[Q]jy3 Wrote:

and also do not forget that when considering the field for the tourney with teams close in the rankings they break things down individually and things get confusing. i doubt cornell will make it. i also doubt that a neutral win will be worth more than a road win. i predict michigan state and notre dame will get in

jy3
[/Q]

Michigan St. is all but a lock and ND will have to fight it out with CC but who knows the committe has some
CRAZY crak they like to smoke this time of year ...

While I wouldn't use the term "crazy crak", this year's selection should yield a good idea of how big the bonus really is.

In a .005-.003-.001 bonus situation Michigan State (12) and Notre Dame (13) are in and Colorado College is out (tied at 14 with Cornell and Colgate). In a .003-.002-.001 scenario Michigan State (12) is still in but there is a three way tie at 13 between Colardo College, Notre Dame and Colgate. Since the tie is circular (each team wins one comparison over another of the three) breaking the tie based on RPI still favors Notre Dame. When there is no bonus the same three way tie results but Colorado College has the higher RPI. So. . . it would seem that we're definitely going to get a controversy this year. Someone will claim they were robbed.

It may seem pointless to talk woulda, coulda, shoulda right now, but I'm going to do it so everyone remembers next year how important non-conference games are. If we had only swept Western Michigan in that opening series, instead of losing and tying, the comparisons with ND and Miami and possibly others would flip. Cornell would most likely get an at large bid in spite of tying Bowling Green and Mercyhurst, our abysmal month of January and last weekend's playoff meltdown. I was not delusional to think this team had a chance at an at large bid at the beginning of the season. It isn't nearly as difficult with the 16 team field. The bottom line is a lot of focus needs to be put on the NC games if we want to be in the NCAA tourney consistently. Winning 7 out of our last 8 games to get 2nd place in the ECACs was great, but ultimately meant nothing since we didn't have a good enough non-conference record and couldn't follow it up in the ECAC playoffs. Relying on a top 4 finish in the ECAC and an ECAC championship is a dangerous strategy to make the NCAAs.

Whether we "deserve" a bid or not is irrelevent. The freshmen could have used the NCAA tourney experience. I don't think BC or Denver are going to reject their at large bids because they lost in their conference tournaments.

Let's win our NC games next year. In my opinion, they are the most important games of the season.

[Q]ben03 Wrote:
.002 per quality road win
.003 per quality neutral-ice win
.001 per quality home win [/Q]Any particular reason you use a higher bonus for a neutral-ice win than a road win? (Or is it a typo, in which case, sorry.)

[Q]jmh30 Wrote:

ben03 Wrote:
.002 per quality road win
.003 per quality neutral-ice win
.001 per quality home win Any particular reason you use a higher bonus for a neutral-ice win than a road win? (Or is it a typo, in which case, sorry.)

[/Q]

i think that was the only scenario that worked to get cornell in

The final bracketology piece on USCHO brings up an interesting point. Harvard, as the number 14 seed, is a lot closer in the pairwise to the 15 seed, Niagara - 22 vs 25 - than Mankato was to Wayne State or Mercyhurst last year. In his 3-2-1 bonus prediction, Jayson Moy moved Harvard to Manchester to play #2 BC (rather than #3 Maine in Albany) so that Niagara can drive to Albany rather than fly to Manchester. Personally, I'd rather play BC than Maine right now. In his no bonus prediction, Harvard gets North Dakota in Albany.