2005-2006 PWR

jmh30
In his NFL.com column this year, Gregg Easterbook (AKA Tuesday Morning Quarterback) took each game and matched the New York Times' predictions against his generic prediction of Home Team 20, Visiting Team 17. I think his generic prediction blew the NYT's predictions out of the water.

Which is to say, if you try to look like a genius and succeed, great, but more often you're going to look like you're just talking out your ass.

Maybe it's like index funds vs. managed.

strong work. i am way too lazy to DO that LGR! (and too tired to type)
let us start it off with a nice tv win tonight! (no woofing)

Wall Street Journal has measured stock pickers against a dartboard. They might have used a chimp, but it would have been insulting to one side.

Robb
Looking at the comparisons we're losing (after all games on Feb 3):

UND: We're losing the comparison 2-1. We lose RPI .5482 to .5419. We're unlikely to take that back, though they do have 2 games remaining with UMD (8-17-4) and 2 with MTU (6-18-3),

MSU: lose the comparison 2-2 on RPI tiebreaker, .5447 to .5419. MSU's RPI is definitely going to go up with 2 games remaining vs. Miami (19-5-4) and 2 vs. LSSU (14-8-5), so we probably can't take RPI.

UNO: we lose the comparison 2-1. UNO has RPI at .5472 to .5419. RPI could still flip, too, so this one is probably still a tossup.

BU: lose the comparison 1-1 on RPI of .5501 to .5419. Right now, common opponents is tied at 2-1-1.

Teams to cheer for: UMD in a big way, MSU, Harvard and Northeastern (vs. BU)
Teams to cheer against: all of the teams we're losing to except MSU.

Nice job.

I disagree with your asumptions about RPI vs. a number of teams. Before yesterday's games Cornell's RPI was .5323, after beating Colgate it was .5419, an increase of .0096 in one game (using .33/.22/.11 bonus). NoDak, BU, MSU and UNO are all within that range - or just one win away from being caught, or nearly so. BU isn't playing tonight, so we could be ahead or close to it by the time they take the ice against Harvard on Monday (a win or tie by HA would have us winning all 3 criteria in the BU comparison).

We do need some help in the out-of-towns tonight, particularly CC beating NoDak. Also LSSU def. UNO, and ND at least tieing MSU. If all that happened, everything else being equal (which you can never count on), we'd be a #1 seed tomorrow morning with 24 comparisons.

Even when things don't shake out perfectly tonight, these 4 comparisons are all very flip-able. It's all about RPI (and COP in BU's case), and the RPIs are really very close.

If we keep playing well PWR 4 or 5 is do-able, and there is no practical difference between the two at this point.

You're probably right. I know I've been surprised in the past just how much movement there can be in RPI even at this point in the season. When you say "no practical difference between the two at this point," you just mean that it's impossible to say whether good results would get us to 4 or 5, right? Because there's a HUGE difference in being the #4 and #5 team - just look at us last year, having to go to Minny as the #5. If you're the #4 seed, you get to go to a regional close to home, and there's a decent chance you'd be facing the AHA or CHA autobid in the first round. A #5 seed can get sent to Siberia or Timbuktu and has a chance of playing the #9 team in the country - huge difference there.

Robb
You're probably right. I know I've been surprised in the past just how much movement there can be in RPI even at this point in the season. When you say "no practical difference between the two at this point," you just mean that it's impossible to say whether good results would get us to 4 or 5, right? Because there's a HUGE difference in being the #4 and #5 team - just look at us last year, having to go to Minny as the #5. If you're the #4 seed, you get to go to a regional close to home, and there's a decent chance you'd be facing the AHA or CHA autobid in the first round. A #5 seed can get sent to Siberia or Timbuktu and has a chance of playing the #9 team in the country - huge difference there.

This isn't last year, and won't be. PWR 4 is going to be playing in the east, whether it's Miami, Cornell, BC, or CC. Therefore 5 is going to be playing in the east. With MN and WI pretty much set for 1 and 2, baring meltdown, even a 6 seed gets eastern ice. 3 through 6 playing east is a pretty wide landing area, let's just keep winning and we'll be in there.

Ken '70
This isn't last year, and won't be. PWR 4 is going to be playing in the east, whether it's Miami, Cornell, BC, or CC. Therefore 5 is going to be playing in the east. With MN and WI pretty much set for 1 and 2, baring meltdown, even a 6 seed gets eastern ice. 3 through 6 playing east is a pretty wide landing area, let's just keep winning and we'll be in there.

Yeah, but they don't put as much emphasis on keeping the 1-16, 2-15 matchups as they do other things - intraconference matchups, banding, etc, so you're still somewhat rolling the dice as a 5 seed, where a 4 seed is a sure thing.

How did you arrive at the conclusion that a 6 seed gets eastern ice? Are you assuming that 2 of the 5-8 band will be from the WCHA, so they'd keep us east to avoid a potential second round intraconference matchup?

Robb

Ken '70
This isn't last year, and won't be. PWR 4 is going to be playing in the east, whether it's Miami, Cornell, BC, or CC. Therefore 5 is going to be playing in the east. With MN and WI pretty much set for 1 and 2, baring meltdown, even a 6 seed gets eastern ice. 3 through 6 playing east is a pretty wide landing area, let's just keep winning and we'll be in there.

Yeah, but they don't put as much emphasis on keeping the 1-16, 2-15 matchups as they do other things - intraconference matchups, banding, etc, so you're still somewhat rolling the dice as a 5 seed, where a 4 seed is a sure thing.

How did you arrive at the conclusion that a 6 seed gets eastern ice? Are you assuming that 2 of the 5-8 band will be from the WCHA, so they'd keep us east to avoid a potential second round intraconference matchup?

These days they don't worry about intraconference matchups in the second round, only the first. They do seem to have concentrated more on the 1-16 seeding in recent years, but it's not codified, and changes in committee personnel could change the way the whim of the committee plays out. And you never know when they'll pull something like "we let them decide it on the ice" out of their keysters.

btw, i was looking on uscho. who are the hosts of the sites this year?

Robb
Yeah, but they don't put as much emphasis on keeping the 1-16, 2-15 matchups as they do other things - intraconference matchups, banding, etc, so you're still somewhat rolling the dice as a 5 seed, where a 4 seed is a sure thing.

How did you arrive at the conclusion that a 6 seed gets eastern ice? Are you assuming that 2 of the 5-8 band will be from the WCHA, so they'd keep us east to avoid a potential second round intraconference matchup?

1-16, etc is the default setup. They vary it if first round interfconference matchups occur or to put a host school where it has to be. They really don't exercise much discretion outside of these bounds.

PWR 1 & 2 get to play as close to home as possible. The top 4 are now all closer to Grand Forks and Green Bay than Albany or Worcester. The top 2 therefore go west, 3 and 4 go east. Since 3 plays 6 and 4 plays 5, all of those will be in either Albany or Worcester.

The only team close to upsetting this is BC, and they have too much wood to chop to get to PWR 1 or 2.

jy3
btw, i was looking on uscho. who are the hosts of the sites this year?

East (Albany, NY): RPI and the ECAC
Northeast (Worcester, MA): Boston University
Midwest (Green Bay, WI) Michigan Tech
West (Grand Forks, ND) :University of North Dakota

[www.ncaa.org]

nyc94

jy3
btw, i was looking on uscho. who are the hosts of the sites this year?

East (Albany, NY): RPI and the ECAC
Northeast (Worcester, MA): Boston University
Midwest (Green Bay, WI) Michigan Tech
West (Grand Forks, ND) :University of North Dakota

[www.ncaa.org]

Doesn't bode well for Michigan. They've made the Frozen Four six times in the past ten years: three-for-three from regionals in Yost; one-for-one from a regional in E. Lansing (one hour from Ann Arbor); and two-for-three from regionals in Grand Rapids (two hours from Ann Arbor). In three regionals not held in Michigan, they've been bounced every time.

Just at a quick glance, I think we have the best TUC record in the PWR ranking. All we got to do is keep on winning and the RPI should slowly improve. Also if you add the game versus RIT, we are tied for the best record in the nation.

TCHL8842
Just at a quick glance, I think we have the best TUC record in the PWR ranking. All we got to do is keep on winning and the RPI should slowly improve. Also if you add the game versus RIT, we are tied for the best record in the nation.

that seems true. only in the minne wisc table do they have a better tuc record b/c the games against minne are gone. at least in my quick glance.


Wisconsin vs Cornell
.5964 1 RPI 0 .5408
12-5-2 .6842 0 TUC 1 .7143 5-2-0
3-1-0 .7500 1 COp 0 .6250 2-1-1
0-0-0 0 H2H 0 0-0-0
2 TOT 1

[www.uscho.com]

Don't look now but Cornell is at number 4 in the pairwise rankings!

I know a lot could change, especially as the games out west come in.....But this is awesome to see.

So Cornell is a 1 seed as of right now. RPI took a huge leap tonight to .5512 after bonuses. However, this is before the WCHA scores are in. Just keep winning.

Yeah, it seems like they leap around 10pm and then slide by 1am.

6 wins from the RS title.
10 wins from the ECAC title.
14 wins...

Well, well. Way to go UMD Bulldogs.

That drops Wisco's common opponents record to 3-2 (.600) and we're at 2-1-1, so we should take this comparison for now. We must beat SLU to keep it.

Edit: and Ken '70 was very right about RPI. We went from .5416 to .5512 in one game by beating a strong team. We won't get that much of a boost from our remaining games, and MSU will get more of a boost from some of their games, but this is not as cut and dried as I thought. Back in November, after that 1-point weekend vs. RPI/Union, I never would have dreamed that this team would even be in the running for a #1 seed. Wow.

looking at the PWR rankings as of 10:48, the only 3 teams that we are losing comparisons to are Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Miami. From what the Robb just said, it seems like we should be able to flip the Wisconsin comparison once the PWR get updated. And Cornell can easily flip the Miami comparison later in the season, as CU and Miami are tied in record against common opponents, but CU has 3 games left against teams that Miami has faced. Still left on the schedule: RPI, Clarkson, St. Lawrence.

With the update at 10:57 EDT, Cornell is now 5th in RPI:

1 Minny
2 Wisco
3 Miami
4 CC
5 Cornell

Honestly, I never would have thought Cornell could climb to the best RPI among all Eastern teams. That's astonishing.

Trotsky
With the update at 10:57 EDT, Cornell is now 5th in RPI:

1 Minny
2 Wisco
3 Miami
4 CC
5 Cornell

Honestly, I never would have thought Cornell could climb to the best RPI among all Eastern teams. That's astonishing.

With either .0033/.0022/.0011 or .003/.002/.001, we're #4 but lose the CC comparison, in addition to Minny and Miami

Yep, the short version of the individual comparisons is:

Losses:

Wisco: Cornell
Minny: Wisco
Miami: Wisco, Minny
Cornell: Minny, Miami, CC

Miami is definitely in reach, and we're just .001 behind CC in the decisive RPI.

cc is up 3-2 with 8 left...

jy3
cc is up 3-2 with 8 left...

... and it has been a great game to listen to, after returning from seeing Cornell on tv (Center City Phila., thank you Hillel )
But I was surprised to hear that CC has scored few goals of late.
Atr this rate, I'd love for CC to play Cornell in an NCAA round.

As of 11:30, with a 3,2,1 Cornell is tied with Miami at #3. Based on the comparison Miami gets 3 and we get 4, but I'll take that

Or as I said when I first ran the results...holy shit, we're a 1 seed!

CC defeats North Dakota 3-2
First time in 2006 they scored 3 goals, their anouncers say.

yep here is the updated set of rankings with 33/22/11
as a 4 seed we would likely be in mass

Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1t Wisconsin 26 5t 19-7-2 .7143 1 .5924
1t Minnesota 26 5t 18-6-4 .7143 2 .5920
3 Miami 25 1 20-5-4 .7586 3 .5755
4 Cornell 24 2t 15-4-3 .7500 5 .5524
5 Colorado College 23 12 18-11-1 .6167 4 .5561
6 Boston College 22 4 17-6-2 .7200 6 .5517
7t Boston University 20 9 15-8-2 .6400 8 .5486
7t Michigan 20 16 16-10-3 .6034 7 .5495
9 Nebraska-Omaha 19 24t 15-11-4 .5667 9 .5476
10t Michigan State 17 18t 16-10-7 .5909 10 .5461
10t Harvard 17 18t 12-8-2 .5909 15 .5331
12t Ohio State 15 29 14-12-4 .5333 14 .5354
12t Providence 15 22 14-10-2 .5769 13 .5404
14 St. Cloud State 14 10t 16-9-3 .6250 16 .5327
15 Ferris State 13 24t 14-10-6 .5667 12 .5407
16 North Dakota 11 21 18-13-1 .5781 11 .5453
17t New Hampshire 10 23 14-10-4 .5714 22 .5244
17t Lake Superior 10 14t 14-8-6 .6071 17 .5322
17t Denver 10 14t 16-10-2 .6071 19 .5294
20 St. Lawrence 8 27t 14-11-1 .5577 18 .5303
21 Maine 7 8 18-10-0 .6429 21 .5265
22t Northern Michigan 6 24t 16-12-2 .5667 26 .5176
22t Alaska-Fairbanks 6 35 11-13-4 .4643 20 .5285
24 Vermont 5 7 17-8-3 .6607 23 .5241
25 Bowling Green 4 38t 12-16-1 .4310 28 .5001
26 Holy Cross 3 2t 19-6-1 .7500 24 .5209
27 Colgate 2 10t 15-8-5 .6250 25 .5205
28 Dartmouth 0 30 11-10-2 .5217 27 .5132

Jeff Hopkins '82
As of 11:30, with a 3,2,1 Cornell is tied with Miami at #3. Based on the comparison Miami gets 3 and we get 4, but I'll take that

CC's win is now incorporated into the PWR, so Cornell's brief hold on the CC comparison is flipped back over to the Tigers leaving Cornell alone in the 4 spot.

CC's RPI went from .5517 to .5561 with the win using the 33/22/11 model. Cornell ends the night at .5524.

Chris '03

Jeff Hopkins '82
As of 11:30, with a 3,2,1 Cornell is tied with Miami at #3. Based on the comparison Miami gets 3 and we get 4, but I'll take that

Cornell ends the night at .5524.

An hour later, make that .5514, tied for third with Miami, bonus or no bonus.

Gotta love the stabilty of the system that moves us from out of the tourney to a #1 seed in one weekend.

Almost as important, given the instability of the PWR at times, our RPI is 5th. Yes, it comes down to PWR in the end, but its ALOT easier to do well in the PWR when your PWR is helping you, not hurting you.

In the rating that makes sense but doesn't matter, we're up to #7.

[slack.net]

Look at the top three. It's very tight at the top of the KRACH.

well lets hope sucks wins tomorrow. that will help them and the ecac. it could help them flip the comparison with us later...but Cornell will prevent that from happening with a win at lynah I hope. Of note, they win the tuc comparison which i thought was interesting.

jy3
yep here is the updated set of rankings with 33/22/11
as a 4 seed we would likely be in mass

First of all, thanks to all of you who really understand this stuff, and post the details for those of us who are interested. I'm especially aprreciative of the detailed posts by Ken, and the one in the past couple of days by Robb. Thanks guys.

But now on to my immediate question...

As the number four overall seed, why would we be in Worcester instead of Albany? I thought there was some "rule" about placing the number one seeds as close to home as possible. And while Albany may be mariginally closer than Massachusetts for whatever other school is being sent east (I haven't checked a map, and am somehwat geographically challeneged) Albany is significantly closer to Ithaca than Worcester is. So why wouldn't we wind up in Albany? What am I missing?
Andy W.

Well, on a similar note.... does anyone know the effect of having the ECAC host Albany with respect to ECAC teams going there? Put another way, BU has to go to Worcester; UND would go to Grand Forks. We if RPI were going, they'd be tied to Albany. But what effect, if any does having the ECAC be a host have on teams placed there..... or is it strictly a money thing for the conference?

The current USCHO projection has us in Albany. (#1 Wisconsin to Green Bay, #2 Minnesota to Grand Forks, ND, #3 Miami to Worcester) My guess is USCHO is assuming the Committee won't distinguish between Albany and Worcester for any team that would likely have to fly to their regional.

In the immortal words of Al Davis, "Just win, baby." Keep winning and things will take care of themselves.

andyw2100
As the number four overall seed, why would we be in Worcester instead of Albany? I thought there was some "rule" about placing the number one seeds as close to home as possible. And while Albany may be mariginally closer than Massachusetts for whatever other school is being sent east (I haven't checked a map, and am somehwat geographically challeneged) Albany is significantly closer to Ithaca than Worcester is. So why wouldn't we wind up in Albany? What am I missing?

redGrinch
Well, on a similar note.... does anyone know the effect of having the ECAC host Albany with respect to ECAC teams going there? Put another way, BU has to go to Worcester; UND would go to Grand Forks. We if RPI were going, they'd be tied to Albany. But what effect, if any does having the ECAC be a host have on teams placed there..... or is it strictly a money thing for the conference?

nyc94
The current USCHO projection has us in Albany. (#1 Wisconsin to Green Bay, #2 Minnesota to Grand Forks, ND, #3 Miami to Worcester) My guess is USCHO is assuming the Committee won't distinguish between Albany and Worcester for any team that would likely have to fly to their regional.

You all make basically the same point, and the answer is, there's no way to know for sure what the committee will do. As nyc94 said, USCHO is guessing that they won't distinquish the difference. But they could elect to follow the rules exactly and send us to Worcester (being 2 towns over from Worcester, I wouldn't mind ).

As for the Albany/RPI/ECAC connection, it doesn't force the committee to do anything - and is officially just a monetary connection for the league - but when you combine that with the point above, if the season were to end today, I wouldn't be surprised if they did put us in Albany. But again, who knows.


That being said, chances are it won't shake out just like this, so we may never know. The committee has no leeway in who makes it (unless you're a conspiracy theorist on the bonus points thing), but they do have a little bit of interpretation involved in some of the placing rules.

redGrinch
Well, on a similar note.... does anyone know the effect of having the ECAC host Albany with respect to ECAC teams going there? Put another way, BU has to go to Worcester; UND would go to Grand Forks. We if RPI were going, they'd be tied to Albany. But what effect, if any does having the ECAC be a host have on teams placed there..... or is it strictly a money thing for the conference?

Do we have enough data to know whether the committee would try to keep BU's bracket (1-16, 2-15, wise) together in Worcester, and that could be the deciding factor in which #1 seed gets sent to Worcester?

I always thought that they set location of #1 seeds before others so this shouldn't happen... of course that means it will.

nr53
I always thought that they set location of #1 seeds before others so this shouldn't happen... of course that means it will.

They do. Step #1 is to seat the #1 seeds in geographic order.

Doesn't mean they couldn't do somethingelse, but thems the rules.

A scary possibility was mentioned over on USCHO: What if UND makes the tournament as the #13 overall seed and we're the #4 overall seed?

So they place Minnesota in Grand Forks, Wisconsin in Green Bay, Miami in Worcester, and Cornell in Albany. Next thing they do is put UND in Grand Forks, creating an intra-conference matchup. So what do they do? The serpentine bracket would call for the #4 seed to face #13, and #13 has to be at home, so swapping us to UND would help maintain "competitive equity" (or was it "bracket integrity" - I never remember which is which) AND avoid a first-round intraconference matchup. Also, we're the lowest #1 seed, so of any of the 4 #1 seeds, we'd be the one most deserving of a screw job. The only argument I could see for sending Miami there instead of us is that Miami has to fly anyway, while Cornell is quite close to Albany.

The arguments against doing it are that it would screw 2 #1 seeds (think Minnesota wants to play in Albany?), and if UND gets in, they're probably the 5th WCHA team, in which case the committee has said that they'll allow some leeway in avoiding intraconference matchups.

Yikes. I think in addition to being big UMD fans, we need to start rooting really hard against UND. Not that that's a stretch...

That would be screw jobs in consecutive seasons. I don't think they'd do that. At least, not if they had any excuse not to.

Good lord, was that a quadruple negative..?

I don't see what's so scary. We'd go to North Dakota and try to win 2 games to get to the Frozen Four, just as any team would.

Robb
A scary possibility was mentioned over on USCHO: What if UND makes the tournament as the #13 overall seed and we're the #4 overall seed?

So they place Minnesota in Grand Forks, Wisconsin in Green Bay, Miami in Worcester, and Cornell in Albany. Next thing they do is put UND in Grand Forks, creating an intra-conference matchup. So what do they do? The serpentine bracket would call for the #4 seed to face #13, and #13 has to be at home, so swapping us to UND would help maintain "competitive equity" (or was it "bracket integrity" - I never remember which is which) AND avoid a first-round intraconference matchup. Also, we're the lowest #1 seed, so of any of the 4 #1 seeds, we'd be the one most deserving of a screw job. The only argument I could see for sending Miami there instead of us is that Miami has to fly anyway, while Cornell is quite close to Albany.

The arguments against doing it are that it would screw 2 #1 seeds (think Minnesota wants to play in Albany?), and if UND gets in, they're probably the 5th WCHA team, in which case the committee has said that they'll allow some leeway in avoiding intraconference matchups.

Yikes. I think in addition to being big UMD fans, we need to start rooting really hard against UND. Not that that's a stretch...

Robb
The only comparison that seems mathematically out of reach is the MSU one - oh, to have that weekend in Nov to do over!

October, believe it or not.

Beeeej

Jordan 04
I don't see what's so scary. We'd go to North Dakota and try to win 2 games to get to the Frozen Four, just as any team would.

I'd have to say that getting a band to Grand Forks is a pretty scary prospect.

So who wants to give us the short answer on how the 3 possible outcomes for each of tonight's Beanpot games would impact our PWR. I assume we are rooting for NU and Harvard in these early round games, but what do I know.

quick and simple and hopefully near target

bc/ne - a win by northeastern would help separate bc from us by dropping their winning % and also by dropping their RPI of course. It would also help us in common opponent as we beat NE and bc would then have lost to them. I am not sure how this would change any of BCs comparisons with other teams or ours with other teams...

sucks/bu - this is a bit more complicated. A loss by BU and a win by sucks helps us for common opponent and raises the oppopp win % and opp win % for the ECAC overall. My main concern is how this will harm us in our comparison with sucks down the road.

any other takers on this?
EDIT:
also...a bc win could lift their rpi above ours and give them the COp thereby flipping the comparison
also...a bu win could lift their rpi above ours (seems unlikely) and give them the COp comparison -> flipping it as well.


here are the current comparisons with 33/22/11

Cornell vs Boston College
.5538 1 RPI 0 .5518
5-2-0 .7143 1 TUC 0 .5769 7-5-1
3-1-0 .7500 1 COp 0 .7000 3-1-1
0-0-0 0 H2H 0 0-0-0
3 TOT 0
cornell vs bu
5538 1 RPI 0 .5486
5-2-0 .7143 1 TUC 0 .6000 8-5-2
2-1-1 .6250 0 COp 0 .6250 2-1-1
0-0-0 0 H2H 0 0-0-0
2 TOT 0

Cornell vs Harvard
.5538 1 RPI 0 .5345
4-2-0 .6667 0 TUC 1 .7222 6-2-1
10-3-2 .7333 1 COp 0 .5938 9-6-1
1-0-0 1 H2H 0 0-1-0
3 TOT 1

Cornell95
So who wants to give us the short answer on how the 3 possible outcomes for each of tonight's Beanpot games would impact our PWR. I assume we are rooting for NU and Harvard in these early round games, but what do I know.

The short answer: yup

If someone else feels like working out all the details, feel free

Short answer - RPI is bases 50% on average winning percentage of opponents. Since we played Northeastern once and have two games vs. Harvard, their wins help our RPI and their loses hurt it. We may end up in some tight RPI battles, which is a key criteria in PWR, as it is also used as a tiebreaker. Only downside is the risk of losing the comparison to Harvard - but I'll be rooting for NE and H tonight.

Section A Banshee

Jordan 04
I don't see what's so scary. We'd go to North Dakota and try to win 2 games to get to the Frozen Four, just as any team would.

I'd have to say that getting a band to Grand Forks is a pretty scary prospect.

With the caveat that I've only played about half of the pep band's songs, and that I last played them 5+(?) years ago, and assuming I'm not in class at the time, I'd bring my flute to Grand Forks if you'd bring a flip folder of music

Liz '05

Section A Banshee

Jordan 04
I don't see what's so scary. We'd go to North Dakota and try to win 2 games to get to the Frozen Four, just as any team would.

I'd have to say that getting a band to Grand Forks is a pretty scary prospect.

With the caveat that I've only played about half of the pep band's songs, and that I last played them 5+(?) years ago, and assuming I'm not in class at the time, I'd bring my flute to Grand Forks if you'd bring a flip folder of music

And that's not a scary prospect?

I dont know if this has been mentioned, but we are currently tied 1-1 with Miami, them winning RPI, us winning TUC, and COp being a tie (them winning the tie on RPI). We next play SLU/Tech who they were 1-0-1 against, so a sweep is crucial to win that comparision; additionally, they play 2 against MSU the week after, so MSU taking at least 3 is crucial there. If we were to flip that, we'd would be tied with Wisconsion for 1st with 25, our only losing comparision being against Minnesota, who plays two against Denver soon, so we should root for Denver there.

And so forth.

French Rage
And so forth.

Po tee weet.

Are either/both of the following true?:

If Cornell wins their final 6 RS games and sweeps through the 4 game ECAC playoffs, they:

1) are guaranteed a 1-seed?
2) are guaranteed to stay East?

I don't think it guarantees a #1 seed. I can imagine how we could lose both the BC and Wisc comparisons even with 10 more wins. Wisconsin just has to swap either the TUC criteria (5-2-0 vs. 12-5-2) or the COp criteria (2-1-1 vs. 3-2) and maintain an RPI lead to do win that comparison. Either seems possible with the right combination of games. BC needs to flip two of the three comparisons. But RPI is very close (.5527 vs. .5518) and could easily switch due to SoS, while COp is also close (3-1 vs. 3-1-1). Needless to say Miami and Minny would also have to hold their advantages over us.

So I do not think running the table would guarantee us a #1 seed. That said, I think a #1 seed would be extremely unlikely because at least one of the nearby teams is likely to slip up just enough to keep/put us ahead.

As for staying east, I don't think there are ever any guarantees.

KeithK
As for staying east, I don't think there are ever any guarantees.

That's not true... while we're talking dream land of sweeping the rest of the season (not that it couldn't happen, just that it'd be an awfully nice dream), a #1 seed would pretty much guarantee us eastern ice unless we get beaten out for that by two other eastern teams. Not impossible, but not too too likely. I guess RPI making a #1 seed could throw a wrench in the works, but, um... yeah.

DeltaOne81

KeithK
As for staying east, I don't think there are ever any guarantees.

That's not true... while we're talking dream land of sweeping the rest of the season (not that it couldn't happen, just that it'd be an awfully nice dream), a #1 seed would pretty much guarantee us eastern ice unless we get beaten out for that by two other eastern teams. Not impossible, but not too too likely. I guess RPI making a #1 seed could throw a wrench in the works, but, um... yeah.

Agreed, a #1 seed would guarantee that we would stay east unless two other eastern teams (BU, BC probably) passed us. But I just finished saying that I don't think a clean sweep guarantees us a #1 seed. So a sweep also won't guarantee that we stay east.

Trotsky

French Rage
And so forth.

Po tee weet.

Are either/both of the following true?:

If Cornell wins their final 6 RS games and sweeps through the 4 game ECAC playoffs, they:

1) are guaranteed a 1-seed?
2) are guaranteed to stay East?

Po tee weet??

Robb
A scary possibility was mentioned over on USCHO: What if UND makes the tournament as the #13 overall seed and we're the #4 overall seed?

So they place Minnesota in Grand Forks, Wisconsin in Green Bay, Miami in Worcester, and Cornell in Albany. Next thing they do is put UND in Grand Forks, creating an intra-conference matchup. So what do they do? The serpentine bracket would call for the #4 seed to face #13, and #13 has to be at home, so swapping us to UND would help maintain "competitive equity" (or was it "bracket integrity" - I never remember which is which) AND avoid a first-round intraconference matchup. Also, we're the lowest #1 seed, so of any of the 4 #1 seeds, we'd be the one most deserving of a screw job. The only argument I could see for sending Miami there instead of us is that Miami has to fly anyway, while Cornell is quite close to Albany.

The arguments against doing it are that it would screw 2 #1 seeds (think Minnesota wants to play in Albany?), and if UND gets in, they're probably the 5th WCHA team, in which case the committee has said that they'll allow some leeway in avoiding intraconference matchups.

Yikes. I think in addition to being big UMD fans, we need to start rooting really hard against UND. Not that that's a stretch...

possible but I would think unlikely - more likely, they'd let UND play the 5 seed, make them play in Grand Forks, and then if they win, play Minnesota; the committee historically has seemed more willing to screw over 2 seeds (like us last year!)

more reason for us to win out, and not get put in the 2 seed position where they can mess with us (unless as been mentioned before, somehow 3 eastern teams are in tHE PWR top 4).

KeithK
Agreed, a #1 seed would guarantee that we would stay east unless two other eastern teams (BU, BC probably) passed us.

Even a #1 isn't a guarantee. Some things that could screw that up:
1) Miami is closer to Albany and Worcester than it is to Grand Forks.
2) What would the committe do if No. Dakota ends up a possible team in our natural bracket, e.g. 5, 12 or 13 if we're #4.
3) The committee can do anything it wants. Last year we were 5 and BU was 12. They could've just switched 5-12 for 6-11 and kept us east, but probably didn't want to do that since 6 was Michigan who they wanted in Grand Rapids. We ended up with a 5-10 match-up and a rationalization that it was about keeping 4 with 5. It's really not worth speculating until we see the final PWR and even then, there can be surprises.

33/22/11 after the first beanpot game

Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1t Wisconsin 26 5t 19-7-2 .7143 1 .5925
1t Minnesota 26 5t 18-6-4 .7143 2 .5921
3 Miami 25 1 20-5-4 .7586 3 .5755
4 Cornell 24 2t 15-4-3 .7500 5 .5537
5 Colorado College 23 12 18-11-1 .6167 4 .5562
6t Boston University 21 9 15-8-2 .6400 7 .5488
6t Michigan 21 16 16-10-3 .6034 6 .5496
8 Boston College 20 4 18-6-2 .7308 8 .5487
9 Nebraska-Omaha 19 24t 15-11-4 .5667 9 .5480
10t Michigan State 17 18t 16-10-7 .5909 10 .5462
10t Harvard 17 18t 12-8-2 .5909 15 .5346
12t Ohio State 15 29 14-12-4 .5333 14 .5354
12t Providence 15 22 14-10-2 .5769 13 .5407
14 St. Cloud State 14 10t 16-9-3 .6250 16 .5328
15 Ferris State 13 24t 14-10-6 .5667 12 .5408
16 North Dakota 11 21 18-13-1 .5781 11 .5453
17t New Hampshire 10 23 14-10-4 .5714 22 .5248
17t Lake Superior 10 14t 14-8-6 .6071 17 .5323
17t Denver 10 14t 16-10-2 .6071 19 .5294
20 St. Lawrence 8 27t 14-11-1 .5577 18 .5310
21 Maine 7 8 18-10-0 .6429 21 .5263
22t Northern Michigan 6 24t 16-12-2 .5667 26 .5176
22t Alaska-Fairbanks 6 35 11-13-4 .4643 20 .5285
24 Vermont 5 7 17-8-3 .6607 23 .5244
25 Bowling Green 4 38t 12-16-1 .4310 28 .5001
26 Holy Cross 3 2t 19-6-1 .7500 25 .5197
27 Colgate 2 10t 15-8-5 .6250 24 .5216
28 Dartmouth 0 30 11-10-2 .5217 27 .5145

as predicted... the red fall

33/22/11

Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1t Wisconsin 26 5t 19-7-2 .7143 1 .5925
1t Minnesota 26 5t 18-6-4 .7143 2 .5920
3 Miami 25 1 20-5-4 .7586 3 .5755
4t Colorado College 23 12 18-11-1 .6167 4 .5564
4t Boston University 23 8 16-8-2 .6538 5 .5540
4t Cornell 23 2t 15-4-3 .7500 6 .5529
7 Michigan 21 16 16-10-3 .6034 7 .5495
8 Boston College 20 4 18-6-2 .7308 8 .5494
9 Nebraska-Omaha 19 23t 15-11-4 .5667 9 .5479
10 Michigan State 17 18t 16-10-7 .5909 10 .5461
11 Harvard 16 26 12-9-2 .5652 17 .5311
12t Ohio State 15 29 14-12-4 .5333 14 .5354
12t Providence 15 21 14-10-2 .5769 12 .5416
14 St. Cloud State 14 10t 16-9-3 .6250 15 .5327
15 Ferris State 13 23t 14-10-6 .5667 13 .5408
16 North Dakota 11 20 18-13-1 .5781 11 .5445
17t Lake Superior 10 14t 14-8-6 .6071 16 .5323
17t Denver 10 14t 16-10-2 .6071 19 .5297
19 New Hampshire 9 22 14-10-4 .5714 23 .5247
20 St. Lawrence 8 27t 14-11-1 .5577 18 .5303
21 Maine 7 9 18-10-0 .6429 21 .5275
22t Vermont 6 7 17-8-3 .6607 22 .5248
22t Northern Michigan 6 23t 16-12-2 .5667 26 .5176
22t Alaska-Fairbanks 6 35 11-13-4 .4643 20 .5285
25 Bowling Green 4 38t 12-16-1 .4310 28 .5001
26 Holy Cross 3 2t 19-6-1 .7500 25 .5196
27 Colgate 2 10t 15-8-5 .6250 24 .5209
28 Dartmouth 0 30 11-10-2 .5217 27 .5134

here is the comparison that changed for cornell:

Boston University vs Cornell
.5540 1 RPI 0 .5529
9-5-2 .6250 0 TUC 1 .7143 5-2-0
3-1-1 .7000 1 COp 0 .6250 2-1-1
0-0-0 0 H2H 0 0-0-0
2 TOT 1

So if we beat Harvard will that boost our RPI enough to flip the comparison back to us?

ugarte
So if we beat Harvard will that boost our RPI enough to flip the comparison back to us?

It would at least make our cop a tie which makes it 1-1 so they still win on RPI if theirs is higher.

I really, really need a life:

There are 203 regular season games left. That doesn't sound so bad. But each game can have 3 outcomes, win, loss, or draw. Thats 3^203 possibilities, which, if you can trust Excel to handle such large figures, comes out to 7.2x10^96. Throw on top of that that the conference playoffs involve 23 2-of-3 series (4 possibilities each: 2-0, 2-1, 1-2, and 0-2) and 28 single elimination games (only 2 possibilities: W or L), and you're up to 1.4x10^119 remaining possibilities.

For reference, there are an estimated ~1x10^79 atoms in the universe, so we're WAY beyond that. To examine all of the possibilities in a year, you'd need to look at about 4.3x10^111 possibilities per second. If you wanted to give yourself a little more leisurely pace, say, the lifetime of the universe (~14B years), you could take it easy at a mere 3.1x10^101 (31 googol!) possibilities per second.

So asking about how one specific result will or won't affect our seeding on selection Sunday is not as easy as it appears! Also, you can't really ask whether beating one team is good enough to flip a comparison - what if, heaven forbid, we beat Harvard but lost all our other games? I daresay we would not win the BU comparison (or many others!) after that.

Since my last assessment was overly pessimistic on RPI, let's focus on that for a minute:

Assuming that we end up playing 33 games before selection Sunday (sweeping our playoff series), each win is worth 1/33*.25 = .007576 points in RPI. So if we win out, our record's contribution to our RPI will be 27.5*.007576 = .2083 (26 wins and 3 ties). Our SOS based on our 23 games played is .4857, and our remaining opponents are at .5536 (SLU), 0.5000 (CKN), 0.5652 (HU), 0.5217 (DC), 0.4483 (RPI), and 0.5333 (UC). Assuming they keep up those win percentages, our SOS by the end of the regular season will be up to .4929, or .0072 higher than now. Our opponent's opponent's percentage is at .506. That will probably drop a little bit, since all the ECAC teams are just playing each other, but I'll ignore that for now. Our final non-bonus RPI would then be: .2083 + .5*.4929 + .25*.506 = .5813. To cancel out the fact that I didn't adjust our op-op percentage, I also didn't give our SOS a bump for the good teams that we'll face in the ECAC playoffs. Add in a .0011 bonus for beating MSU at home, and we would end up at .5824. As of now, that would put us in 3rd in RPI, which seems pretty consistent - there are usually only a couple of teams flirting with .6, so .5813 is not too shabby. 3rd in RPI combined with 1st in TUC (which we would almost certainly be if we won out) should be enough to flip the BU comparison back to us and earn a #1 seed. Of course, if BU goes and wins out, too, they'll be doing it against stronger competition, so they might still edge us out.

jkahn
2) What would the committe do if No. Dakota ends up a possible team in our natural bracket, e.g. 5, 12 or 13 if we're #4.

I haven't looked at this year's championship handbook, but if they followed the prescription they laid out in last years, this would only matter if North Dakota were a 4-seed (doesn't matter if they're 13, 14, 15, or 16). In that case, they would be in Grand Forks and no WCHA team could be there as a 1-seed. So if Minny and Wisco are in the top four, one presumably goes to Green Bay and the other to either Albany or Worcester. The overall #4 probably lands in ND in that scenario,

Of course, the committee demonstrated last year with that "we let them settle it on the ice" horseshit that their own power trips are more important than the procedures spelled out in the handbook.

I would just like to point out that, in the above post, like on uscho, our record is listed as 15-4-3 when it is actually 16-4-3. I do not know why this is but would assume that that would have some bearing on the rankings.

Patrick
I would just like to point out that, in the above post, like on uscho, our record is listed as 15-4-3 when it is actually 16-4-3. I do not know why this is but would assume that that would have some bearing on the rankings.

RIT doesnt count.

Robb
Of course, if BU goes and wins out, too, they'll be doing it against stronger competition, so they might still edge us out.

BU enjoys its current lofty position because it has previoulsy played a strong schedule. That's not true for the rest of the season. W-L-T record of their remaining RS is about 105-101-30 because they've got the RPI-killer, Northeaster, twice. I think our remaining opponents have a higher win % than BUs.

We'll be 1 seed for sure if we win out, and in fact as long as our winning % in our remaining games is at least as high as our close competitors (BU,UNO,MSU,OSU,Ferris) we'll win all those comparisons and that will most likely make us a 1 seed. Their's math behind that, just don't have time to explain it now.

Probably true. Our playoff series should be against a better team than theirs, too - they're likely to get UMass (11-15) or Lowell (10-16-1) (Aside: how much must it suck to be Merrimack - looking UP in the HEA standings at a team that has one win on the season!) while we should end up with someone like Yale (8-12-3), RPI (11-14-4), or Clarkson (13-13-2). Their RPI can't go down because of that, of course, but ours might still go up. Their possible games at the Fleet look pretty simliar to ours, too, e.g. UNH (14-10-4) and BC (16-8-2) to our Harvard (12-9-2) and Colgate (15-8-5).

So I take that back, too - looks like we have a fairly similar strength of remaining schedule as BU. It should come down to who does better against that schedule, particularly our common opponents: Harvard, RPI, Dartmouth for us and Northeastern for them.

Robb
Probably true. Our playoff series should be against a better team than theirs, too - they're likely to get UMass (11-15) or Lowell (10-16-1) (Aside: how much must it suck to be Merrimack - looking UP in the HEA standings at a team that has one win on the season!).

As much as it sucks for UMass to *be* that one loser to Northeastern -- and by shut out!

new rankings about the michigan and michigan state wins this week.
33/22/11
still 4t but lose the RPI tie breaker. note that bu has us by .0005 rpi...thank michigan state for that bump

Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1t Wisconsin 25 5t 19-7-2 .7143 1 .5927
1t Minnesota 25 5t 18-6-4 .7143 2 .5925
3 Miami 24 1 20-5-4 .7586 3 .5741
4t Colorado College 22 12t 18-11-1 .6167 4 .5563
4t Cornell 22 2t 15-4-3 .7500 6 .5535
6 Boston University 21 8 16-8-2 .6538 5 .5540
7t Michigan State 19 17 17-10-7 .6029 7 .5497
7t Boston College 19 4 18-6-2 .7308 8 .5496
7t Nebraska-Omaha 19 23t 15-11-4 .5667 10 .5485
10 Michigan 18 12t 17-10-3 .6167 9 .5493
11 Harvard 15 26 12-9-2 .5652 16 .5311
12t Ohio State 14 30 14-13-4 .5161 15 .5322
12t Providence 14 21 14-10-2 .5769 12 .5416
14 St. Cloud State 13 10t 16-9-3 .6250 14 .5327
15 Ferris State 12 23t 14-10-6 .5667 13 .5404
16t Denver 10 15t 16-10-2 .6071 19 .5298
16t North Dakota 10 20 18-13-1 .5781 11 .5447
18 Lake Superior 8 15t 14-8-6 .6071 17 .5308
19t St. Lawrence 7 27t 14-11-1 .5577 18 .5303
19t New Hampshire 7 22 14-10-4 .5714 23 .5248
21t Alaska-Fairbanks 6 35 11-13-4 .4643 20 .5297
21t Maine 6 9 18-10-0 .6429 21 .5274
21t Vermont 6 7 17-8-3 .6607 22 .5249
24 Northern Michigan 5 23t 16-12-2 .5667 26 .5178
25 Holy Cross 3 2t 19-6-1 .7500 25 .5203
26 Colgate 1 10t 15-8-5 .6250 24 .5206
27 Dartmouth 0 29 11-10-2 .5217 27 .5135

well...the loss dropped us obviously. another factor that is huge for tonight is that clarkson became a tuc with their win. a large factor down the road is that north dakota now has the COP on us. awaiting the late games before the rankings are fully in the books after 2nite.

I'm sure this has been addressed, but why is Cornell only being given 15 wins in the PWR when they actually have 16?

Im seeing 18 both with and without the bonus.

calgARI '07
I'm sure this has been addressed, but why is Cornell only being given 15 wins in the PWR when they actually have 16?

RIT doesn't count because this is their first year in D-I and thus they are ineligible for the NCAA tournament.

Will

calgARI '07
I'm sure this has been addressed, but why is Cornell only being given 15 wins in the PWR when they actually have 16?

RIT doesn't count because this is their first year in D-I and thus they are ineligible for the NCAA tournament.

For things likely addressed that I don't remember the answer to, would including RIT help or hurt us? Sure, we have the extra win, but ...

ugarte

Will

calgARI '07
I'm sure this has been addressed, but why is Cornell only being given 15 wins in the PWR when they actually have 16?

RIT doesn't count because this is their first year in D-I and thus they are ineligible for the NCAA tournament.

For things likely addressed that I don't remember the answer to, would including RIT help or hurt us? Sure, we have the extra win, but ...

According to JTW's script ( [www.slack.net] )

Adding RIT right now would add 0.0015 to our RPI, but we'd still be 11th (in RPI). So as of this moment, it would help us, but little enough to not make a difference.

couple of things...it would be tough to include RIT since they played some dIII schools this year. I think that if you were to include them they would meet the 25 game vs dI school minimum.

33/22/11 after the games last night

results to look for tonight.
1. cornell over SLU(T) obviously - win is good, win vs a tuc better
2. colgate over clarkson - only if we win (otherwise they overtake us in the ecachl standings) - may knock clarkson below tuc status which would be nice...
3. princeton over dc - get dc towards being out of tuc status... we lost to them. also separate us in the standings
4. nmu over neb o - neb o is ahead of cornell
5. lssu over michigan - may bunch things up as lssu will rise but michigan will fall and they are ahead of cornell
6. ferris state and notre dame - i think a notre dame upset would be good here, although some teams between us and ferris may get extra comparisons with a ferris loss
7. fairbanks and bgsu - not sure how close to tuc bgsu is...fairbanks is a long way away from a bid
8. niagara - always root for them to win to become a tuc, improve our oppopp% and possibly for them to win their tourney to become a tuc.
9. uhn merrimack - uhn needs some help. a win for them may solidify their position but it will keep their comparison over cc from flipping down the road to a cc comparison win
10 . maine uvm - a uvm win will hurt maine as they are tied for #14. this will likely help the ecachl down the road...
11. umass providence - providence is close to cornell...let them lose
12. scsu and cc - cc is ahead of cornell...
13. denver mankato - denver holds the comparison over michigan. this will likely not change that comparison.
14. minnesota and mich tech - obviously a loss by minne would be good since they are ahead of cornell.
15. tOSU wisconsin - wi is ahead of cornell... a win for tOSU may make them move a lot....
I think that is it for 2nites games. i may be wrong, didnt look into each one too much.
the biggest thing - if cornell wins and nothing else above happens I will be happy
LGR!


Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1 Wisconsin 27 6 19-7-2 .7143 1 .5928
2 Minnesota 26 4 19-6-4 .7241 2 .5894
3 Miami 25 2 20-5-4 .7586 3 .5753
4 Colorado College 23 10 19-11-1 .6290 4 .5639
5t Boston University 22 7 17-8-2 .6667 5 .5566
5t Boston College 22 3 19-6-2 .7407 6 .5550
5t Nebraska-Omaha 22 22 16-11-4 .5806 7 .5519
8 Michigan State 20 17 17-10-7 .6029 8 .5484
9 Cornell 18 5 15-5-3 .7174 11 .5427
10 Harvard 17 21 13-9-2 .5833 15 .5350
11 Michigan 16 18 17-11-3 .5968 10 .5458
12t Providence 14 26 14-11-2 .5556 12 .5393
12t North Dakota 14 23 18-13-1 .5781 9 .5462
14t St. Lawrence 13 24t 15-11-1 .5741 14 .5351
14t Maine 13 8 19-10-0 .6552 13 .5357
14t Ohio State 13 31 14-13-4 .5161 16 .5343
17 Denver 11 11t 17-10-2 .6207 19 .5328
18t St. Cloud State 10 15t 16-10-3 .6034 21 .5275
18t Ferris State 10 27t 14-11-6 .5484 17 .5343
20t Alaska-Fairbanks 8 33 12-13-4 .4828 20 .5311
20t New Hampshire 8 20 15-10-4 .5862 24 .5230
22 Lake Superior 7 11t 15-8-6 .6207 18 .5343
23 Holy Cross 6 1 20-6-1 .7593 22 .5236
24 Vermont 5 9 17-9-3 .6379 23 .5235
25t Dartmouth 3 29 12-10-2 .5417 25 .5170
25t Northern Michigan 3 27t 16-13-2 .5484 27 .5112
27t Colgate 1 15t 15-9-5 .6034 26 .5129
27t Clarkson 1 32 13-13-2 .5000 28 .5020

The obvious problem with Cornell at 9 as of today is not only playing in the Wisconsin regional, but playing Michigan State in the first round

DeltaOne81
Adding RIT right now would add 0.0015 to our RPI, but we'd still be 11th (in RPI). So as of this moment, it would help us, but little enough to not make a difference.

Interesting. At the time, the win over RIT actually hurt our RPI. They must have won a few games.

jy3
couple of things...it would be tough to include RIT since they played some dIII schools this year. I think that if you were to include them they would meet the 25 game vs dI school minimum.

Last I heard that minimum was 20, not 25. And there's no problem including RIT; you just leave out their games against non-D1 opponents.

Tub(a)
The obvious problem with Cornell at 9 as of today is not only playing in the Wisconsin regional, but playing Michigan State in the first round

That doesn't strike me as a problem. I'd love to get another crack at them. I'd guess the team would too.

jtwcornell91

jy3
couple of things...it would be tough to include RIT since they played some dIII schools this year. I think that if you were to include them they would meet the 25 game vs dI school minimum.

Last I heard that minimum was 20, not 25. And there's no problem including RIT; you just leave out their games against non-D1 opponents.

yeah i wasnt sure if it was 20 or 25. i meant to say that if we get rid of the dIII games they could be counted..
something interesting...scheduling RIT does nothing for the team yet it took up an OOC slot and counted towards the ivy limit. that stinks. although, it may have convinced coach that the team should host the rochester regional

Well I think we can forget about this for a while and concentrate on winning the ECAC.

Jim Hyla
Well I think we can forget about this for a while and concentrate on winning the ECAC.

This isn't to take issue with you, Jim, but with what seems to be the prevailing dichotomy of views: namely, that people are either concentrating on the ECAC, or concentrating on the NCAA. Seems to me that the goal all the time (and I'd guess this is the way Schafer and the team view things) should be to concentrate on winning the next game on the schedule. The rest, whether it's PWR or ECAC playoff matchups, is just idle speculation.

jmh30

Jim Hyla
Well I think we can forget about this for a while and concentrate on winning the ECAC.

This isn't to take issue with you, Jim, but with what seems to be the prevailing dichotomy of views: namely, that people are either concentrating on the ECAC, or concentrating on the NCAA. Seems to me that the goal all the time (and I'd guess this is the way Schafer and the team view things) should be to concentrate on winning the next game on the schedule. The rest, whether it's PWR or ECAC playoff matchups, is just idle speculation.

Yeah, that's actually what I meant. When I said win the ECAC, I meant the RS title, that is let's take care of the upcoming games and then the tourney. and then worry about the NCAA. The team has put itself in a difficult position for a high seed.

I should have realized that most of the time when we say win the ECAC we mean the tourney. My confusing post.

jmh30

Tub(a)
The obvious problem with Cornell at 9 as of today is not only playing in the Wisconsin regional, but playing Michigan State in the first round

That doesn't strike me as a problem. I'd love to get another crack at them. I'd guess the team would too.

Personally a regional that potentially means games vs. MSU and Wisconsin seems like a pretty good matchup. Cornell matches up reasonably well with both. They know what to expect from MSU and have proven capable of beating them on two weeks practice. It may seem crazy to say that the top team in the PWR is a good matchup but if I had to choose a WCHA team between Minnesota, defending champion Denver (I know they're on the outside looking in now), NoDak at home (ditto), CC, and Wisconsin (playing with the added pressure of trying to play in a "home" frozen four), I'd take WI just about everytime (unless CC decides to stop scoring again). They don't play a typical WCHA run and gun kind of game. They are a lot like the eastern teams that rely on strong defense and opportunistic offense. Of course there's a lot of hockey to go and Cornell has almost as good a chance of seeing BC and Lake State in Albany as MSU and Wisco come March.

Jim Hyla
Well I think we can forget about this for a while and concentrate on winning the ECAC.

With electrons being free and all, and our having nearly infinite free time, or so it seems, there's no reason the players can't concentrate on winning the ECAC tournament and leave to us the task of figuring out who is the ideal matchup.

33/22/11
sacred heart is now a tuc...

Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1 Wisconsin 29 4 20-7-2 .7241 1 .5948
2 Minnesota 28 5 19-6-5 .7167 2 .5854
3 Miami 27 1 20-5-4 .7586 3 .5753
4t Boston University 24 7 17-8-2 .6667 5 .5583
4t Boston College 24 2 19-6-2 .7407 6 .5545
4t Nebraska-Omaha 24 19 17-11-4 .5938 7 .5544
7 Colorado College 23 14t 19-12-1 .6094 4 .5615
8t Michigan 21 14t 18-11-3 .6094 8 .5515
8t Michigan State 21 16 17-10-7 .6029 9 .5492
10 Cornell 20 6 15-5-4 .7083 11 .5430
11t Ohio State 18 31t 14-14-4 .5000 16 .5344
11t Harvard 18 21t 13-9-2 .5833 15 .5348
13 Providence 17 24t 15-11-2 .5714 12 .5417
14t Maine 15 8 19-10-1 .6500 13 .5392
14t Denver 15 9t 18-10-2 .6333 17 .5343
16t St. Cloud State 14 12 17-10-3 .6167 18 .5332
16t St. Lawrence 14 24t 15-11-2 .5714 14 .5376
18 North Dakota 13 23 18-13-1 .5781 10 .5455
19 New Hampshire 11 21t 15-10-5 .5833 23 .5178
20 Alaska-Fairbanks 10 31t 13-13-4 5000 19 .5329
21 Lake Superior 9 17t 15-9-6 .6000 20 .5311
22t Ferris State 8 29t 14-12-6 .5313 21 .5300
22t Vermont 8 9t 17-9-4 .6333 22 .5271
24 Dartmouth 7 26 13-10-2 .5600 24 .5178
25t Holy Cross 5 3 20-7-1 .7321 25 .5167
25t Northern Michigan 5 29t 16-14-2 .5313 27 .5091
27 Colgate 3 17t 15-9-6 .6000 26 .5122
28t Notre Dame 2 39 11-16-3 .4167 28 .5029
28t Clarkson 2 31t 13-13-3 .5000 29 .5027
30 Sacred Heart 0 13 16-10-1 .6111 30 .5020

slight change in rpi for cornell and sucks
Harvard .5348 -> .5329
cornell .5430 -> .5433
bc-bu game pending

jy3
slight change in rpi for cornell and sucks
Harvard .5348 -> .5329
cornell .5430 -> .5433
bc-bu game pending

A good example of how poor a measure RPI is. We'll actually get a bigger positive effect in the long run from Harvard's win, as we play them twice and Northeastern only once.

jkahn

jy3
slight change in rpi for cornell and sucks
Harvard .5348 -> .5329
cornell .5430 -> .5433
bc-bu game pending

A good example of how poor a measure RPI is. We'll actually get a bigger positive effect in the long run from Harvard's win, as we play them twice and Northeastern only once.

that is true
33/22/11 with the bu over bc in the beanpot

Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1 Wisconsin 29 3 20-7-2 .7241 1 .5949
2 Minnesota 28 4 19-6-5 .7167 2 .5854
3 Miami 27 1 20-5-4 .7586 3 .5752
4 Boston University 26 7 18-8-2 .6786 4 .5660
5 Nebraska-Omaha 24 20 17-11-4 .5938 6 .5543
6t Colorado College 22 14t 19-12-1 .6094 5 .5618
6t Michigan 22 14t 18-11-3 .6094 7 .5511
6t Boston College 22 5 19-7-2 .7143 8 .5509
9 Michigan State 21 16 17-10-7 .6029 9 .5492
10 Cornell 20 6 15-5-4 .7083 11 .5432
11 Harvard 18 17t 14-9-2 .6000 18 .5331
12t Ohio State 17 31t 14-14-4 .5000 16 .5344
12t Providence 17 24t 15-11-2 .5714 12 .5409
14 Denver 16 9t 18-10-2 .6333 15 .5346
15 Maine 15 8 19-10-1 .6500 13 .5390
16t St. Cloud State 14 12 17-10-3 .6167 17 .5333
16t St. Lawrence 14 24t 15-11-2 .5714 14 .5379
18 North Dakota 13 23 18-13-1 .5781 10 .5456
19 New Hampshire 11 22 15-10-5 .5833 24 .5173
20 Alaska-Fairbanks 10 31t 13-13-4 .5000 19 .5328
21 Lake Superior 9 17t 15-9-6 .6000 20 .5310
22t Ferris State 8 29t 14-12-6 .5313 21 .5296
22t Vermont 8 9t 17-9-4 .6333 22 .5255
24 Dartmouth 7 26 13-10-2 .5600 23 .5187
25t Holy Cross 5 2 20-7-1 .7321 25 .5167
25t Northern Michigan 5 29t 16-14-2 .5313 27 .5091
27t Colgate 3 17t 15-9-6 .6000 26 .5125
27t Clarkson 3 31t 13-13-3 .5000 28 .5029
29 Notre Dame 1 39 11-16-3 .4167 29 .5028
30 Sacred Heart 0 13 16-10-1 .6111 30 .5020

Last night's Beanpot results had the enormous impact of moving us from a first-round matchup against Michigan in Wisconsin... to a first-round matchup against Michigan in North Dakota. Woo.

Beeeej

...and meanwhile Sucks gets to stay in Albany.

So, in the spirit of Bill Maher's "New Rules", here's a new rule:

If you can't regularly fill your own arena, and when you do, most of the fans are rooting against you, then you never get to play in a regional anywhere near home. You get sent to the most god-forsaken, faraway spot available.

Harvard's got 2 chances in 2 regionals right now. Little oops from the bracketologist.

yeah the albany sucks should be tOSU

No he just thinks they are that deserving of two first round losses this year

Bracket Inflation?