At large analysis

I apologize for a topic that suggests that I will do it. I am not the sort who is capable. I leave such work to Whelan and crew. So I'm asking for it.

I will say that my instinct is that our chances are good if we play in conference as well as we apparently did in Estero. The BC loss and Maine win both help. As does Michigan State's win in the Great Lakes Invitational this weekend.

A quick word about MSU. They are now 10-9-1, but they have some very impressive wins in that 10-9-1. Two against New Hampshire, plus one each against Michigan, Wisconsin, and, well, us. Plus the tie against us. Some of the losses are hard to figure, but we can hope that the second half of the season sees more success. They have shown that they are capable of being a top team, so go Spartans.

Until the NCAAs.

I don't know how much Yale's tie with Wisconsin (Bucky advances via the shootout) tonight at the Kohl Center will help, but it does please me very much.

I think Cornell will be in a favorable position come NCAA's time to the point where they will be able to get an at-large bid.

This week worked out very well for Cornell. With the split in Florida against good competition, combined with good play by MSU and most of the ECAC that played, we moved from 20th to 14th in the PWR. [siouxsports.com]
That would be good enough for an at-large bid if the winners of each of the "Big 4" conference tournaments are in the Top 14. Right now Maine is 15th in RPI so our win over them will qualify for bonus points if they can maintain or improve.

MSU looked solid (both games were on the Dish) in their 2 wins over UNH and the WJC depleted, but still excellent, Michigan team. Our T,L in East Lansing doesn't look so bad anymore. Brown has now become a Team Under Consideration (RPI>0.500) which helps. There are now 6 ECAC TUCs which means if the Big Red has a solid 2nd half in conference play, our record vs. TUCs will improve. Also our NC games against Sacred Heart, Canisius and Army won't hurt our schedule strength as much by the end of the season, since these AHA teams will play mostly in conference games the rest of the way and their records will improve.

Things are looking up. I apologize for the excessive pessimism earlier. Happy New Year. LGR!

In recent years, Cornell's strength of schedule would get worse throughout January, February, and March because playing only ECAC teams would drag down the opponents' winning percentage and opponents' opponents' winning percentage. That phenomenon should be mitigated, if not eliminated, this season because the ECAC appears to be a little better overall than in prior years and because Cornell's interconference schedule featured three AHA cupcakes.

I agree that a strong performance in the final 16 regular-season games should put Cornell in a position that would not require an ECAC Championship to earn a berth in the NCAA Tournament.

[Q]Steve Marciniec Wrote:
That would be good enough for an at-large bid if the winners of each of the "Big 4" conference tournaments are in the Top 14. Right now Maine is 15th in RPI so our win over them will qualify for bonus points if they can maintain or improve[/q]
Right now, that would mean that Harvard or Cornell win the ECAC. In the later, the point is moot, but who wants to see another Harvard title? Yuck.

Of course, the better news is that we're 14, but really in a 3 way tie for 12th, and only 0.0039 behind UML in the RPI tiebreaker. So every game is vital, but you really need to be 12 or 13 to feel decently comfortable about an at-large bid. 14th is right on the edge, and everything has to fall the right way. 13 allows the ECAC or another league to have an upset, and 12 allows two of those. With 6 WCHA and 4 HEA (with a quick count) teams in the top 14, 12th leaves you quite safe. 14th probably won't happen.

Every game matters to make up that RPI difference, as well as routing against UML, Wisconsin, Ohio St., and even Mich St in the clutch.

Top 15 teams' results from the past two weeks

USCHO.com/CSTV Division I Men's Poll
December 20, 2004

   Team        
 1 Minnesota                    (W,W,W) Merrimack, 16 Northern Michigan, 13 Boston University
 2 Colorado College             (W,T) Miami, 11 Ohio State
 3 Michigan                     (W,L) Michigan Tech, Michigan State
 4 Wisconsin                    (T,L) Yale, Michigan State
 5 Boston College               (W,W) 9 Cornell, St. Cloud
 6 New Hampshire                (L,W) Michigan State, Michigan Tech
 7 Denver                       (W,W) Air Force, Northeastern
 8 North Dakota                 
 9 Cornell                      (L,W) 5 Boston College, 15 Maine
10 Harvard                      (T,L) Northern Michigan, Merrimack
11 Ohio State                   (W,T) Minnesota State, 2 Colorado College
12 Colgate                      (L,W) Northeastern, Air Force
13 Boston University            (W,L) Nebraska-Omaha, 1 Minnesota
14 Vermont                      (W,L) Providence, Dartmouth
15 Maine                        (T,L) St. Cloud, 9 Cornell