Bracketology

It starts. Here's the first from USCHO's Jayson Moy.

Since USCHO has begun the PairWise Rankings, we have correctly identified all of the teams that have been selected to the NCAA tournament.

I’m the only national prognosticator that has correctly predicted each of the last three brackets for the NCAA tournament, meaning that I have interpreted how the committee thought when putting together the brackets.

Read more: [www.uscho.com]

Here's the first outcome:

This week’s brackets

West Regional (St. Paul)
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Minnesota
11 Clarkson vs. 8 Massachusetts-Lowell

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati)
14 Vermont vs. 3 St. Cloud State
9 Michigan vs. 5 Union

East Regional (Bridgeport)
13 New Hampshire vs. 4 Ferris State
10 Northeastern vs. 6 Quinnipiac

Northeast Regional (Worcester)
15 Wisconsin vs. 2 Boston College
12 Cornell vs. 7 Providence
Conference breakdowns

Hockey East — 6
ECAC Hockey — 4
Big Ten — 3
Atlantic Hockey — 1
NCHC — 1
WCHA — 1

Union is the eastern team that get's screwed this time.

Stop the season right now! I'll take this.

BMac
Stop the season right now! I'll take this.

Was thinking the same thing. It also gives the chance of an all-ECAC Frozen Four, which would make the head of every USCHO poster west of Buffalo asplode.

Trotsky

BMac
Stop the season right now! I'll take this.

Was thinking the same thing. It also gives the chance of an all-ECAC Frozen Four, which would make the head of every USCHO poster west of Buffalo asplode.

Probably everyone east of Hamden too.

Jim Hyla
Union is the eastern team that get's screwed this time.

If you've got to get screwed in a bracket it's best to do so in January...

Some differences in Pairwise between the USCHO site and CHN app. Possibly related to road wins/home losses adjustments to RPI?

The latest.

This week’s brackets

West Regional (St. Paul)
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Minnesota
9 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 5 St. Cloud State

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati)
15 Michigan vs. 3 Ferris State
10 Wisconsin vs. 6 Union

East Regional (Bridgeport)
13 New Hampshire vs. 4 Quinnipiac
12 Yale vs. 8 Providence

Northeast Regional (Worcester)
14 Clarkson vs. 2 Boston College
11 Cornell vs. 7 Northeastern
Conference breakdowns

Hockey East — 5
ECAC Hockey — 5
Big Ten — 3
Atlantic Hockey — 1
NCHC — 1
WCHA — 1
On the move

In: Yale

Out: Vermont

Read more: [www.uscho.com]

That good old eastern hockey.

Some volatility in the Pairwise at the bubble. After last night Yale and New Hampshire would be out, Maine and Notre Dame in.

CHN and USCHO have been showing different Pairwise Rankings.
Cqn anyone enlighten us as to why they may be different?

jkahn
CHN and USCHO have been showing different Pairwise Rankings.
Cqn anyone enlighten us as to why they may be different?

Differences in calculating RPI. CHN page has this note: This chart is updated as each game result comes in. The final RPI does not currently reflect home/road weighting.

USCHO has this to say in the Bracketology column: "In calculation of the index, wins on the road and losses at home have a weighting factor of 1.2. Wins at home and losses on the road have a weighting factor of 0.8. All neutral-site games have a weighting factor of 1.0. A tie is one-half of a win and one-half of a loss, so home/road ties are treated accordingly for the teams involved." And this: "There is a quality wins bonus for wins against teams in the top 20 of the RPI. A win against the No. 1 team in the RPI is worth 0.05 points, and is scaled down by 0.0025 points for each place until you reach No. 20, where a bonus of 0.0025 points will be given."

This weeks edition.

West Regional (St. Paul)
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Minnesota
9 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 8 St. Cloud State

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati)
15 Michigan vs. 4 Union
11 Notre Dame vs. 5 Ferris State

East Regional (Bridgeport)
14 Yale vs. 3 Quinnipiac
12 Clarkson vs. 6 Providence

Northeast Regional (Worcester)
13 Cornell vs. 2 Boston College
10 Wisconsin vs. 7 Northeastern
Conference breakdowns

Hockey East — 5
ECAC Hockey — 5
Big Ten — 3
Atlantic Hockey — 1
NCHC — 1
WCHA — 1
On the move

In: Notre Dame

Out: New Hampshire

Read more: [www.uscho.com]

Yale v. Quinnipiac in the first round? Just to "protect" Minnesota?

nyc94
Yale v. Quinnipiac in the first round? Just to "protect" Minnesota?

1-16 and 3-14 are the natural pairings. The only swap breaks up us versus Union (4-13), and it helps attendance in both regionals, so it makes sense to me.

We just need to move up to the 3-band and then it all goes away.

Who is the Bridgeport host? Edit: acc. to below, it's Yale.

Jeff Hopkins '82

nyc94
Yale v. Quinnipiac in the first round? Just to "protect" Minnesota?

1-16 and 3-14 are the natural pairings. The only swap breaks up us versus Union (4-13), and it helps attendance in both regionals, so it makes sense to me.

We just need to move up to the 3-band and then it all goes away.

2003 rules: swap Mercyhurst and Yale. Edit: Never mind. Yale is a host. I keep forgetting that even though it was mentioned three or more times in the article. Only other option would be to swap Quinnipiac and BC and then Mercyhurst with Cornell which they would never do and would really suck for us.

For selfish reasons, I need us to move up to the 3 band or hope Yale drops out. I already have my tickets for Bridgeport (though I suppose I could double up with Worcester depending on start times).

I would think the odds are probably fairly good that one of {Clarkson, Cornell, Yale} will wind up outside. Adds just a little more urgency to the Saturday game.

Trotsky
I would think the odds are probably fairly good that one of {Clarkson, Cornell, Yale} will wind up outside. Adds just a little more urgency to the Saturday game.

Yale lost to Brown 3-1 last night and drops to 20. Colgate beat Clarkson 3-2 and is now on the bubble at 16. Clarkson holding on at 14 (tie with Notre Dame).

After Saturday, Colgate in at 15, Clarkson out at 16. Yale is 18.

Today's edition. I like it a lot.

West Regional (St. Paul):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Minnesota
9 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 6 St. Cloud State

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
13 Wisconsin vs. 4 Union
12 Notre Dame vs. 5 Ferris State

Northeast Regional (Worcester):
15 Colgate vs. 2 Boston College
10 Michigan vs. 8 Northeastern

East Regional (Bridgeport):
14 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 3 Quinnipiac
11 Cornell vs. 7 Providence
Conference breakdowns

Hockey East — 5
ECAC Hockey — 4
Big Ten — 3
NCHC — 2
Atlantic Hockey — 1
WCHA — 1
On the move

In: Minnesota-Duluth, Colgate

Out: Clarkson, Yale
Attendance woes?

None.

Read more: [www.uscho.com]

Jim Hyla
Today's edition. I like it a lot.

Guh, why? Considering how we do against elite goaltenders, I'd like to avoid Gillies as long as possible.

RichH

Jim Hyla
Today's edition. I like it a lot.

Guh, why? Considering how we do against elite goaltenders, I'd like to avoid Gillies as long as possible.

Because Witt of NE is also very good, and if we get buy either of those, I'd much prefer Q over BC. I think it would be a better path to FF.

As long as we're in Bridgeport I don't care who we play. (Sub-caveat: as long as we make the tournament I don't care where we play but also Bridgeport, please.)

ugarte
As long as we're in Bridgeport I don't care who we play. (Sub-caveat: as long as we make the tournament I don't care where we play but also Bridgeport, please.)

Eh I'd prefer we play whatever makes us most likely to get to Broad Street.

Jim Hyla

RichH

Jim Hyla
Today's edition. I like it a lot.

Guh, why? Considering how we do against elite goaltenders, I'd like to avoid Gillies as long as possible.

Because Witt of NE is also very good, and if we get buy either of those, I'd much prefer Q over BC. I think it would be a better path to FF.

It is an even year, that means that BC will win the national championship. So if we have to meet BC, let it be in the finals so we can break this pattern.

BC NCAA Tournament Championships
1949, 2001, 2008, 2010, 2012

css228
I'd prefer we play whatever makes us most likely to get to Broad Street.

First time someone really would rather be in Philadelphia.

Trotsky

css228
I'd prefer we play whatever makes us most likely to get to Broad Street.

First time someone really would rather be in Philadelphia.

Think that also applied to Valley Forge as well. Not to mention I'd rather be in Philly right now.

css228

Trotsky
First time someone really would rather be in Philadelphia.

Think that also applied to Valley Forge

tws*s

* Peggy Shippen

Trotsky

css228

Trotsky
First time someone really would rather be in Philadelphia.

Think that also applied to Valley Forge

tws*s

* Peggy Shippen

Had to look that one up.

Bridgeport would be great as I already have 2 tickets and plan on going there! If Cornell makes it there WONDERFUL - LGR

This week.

West Regional (St. Paul):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Minnesota
9 Northeastern vs. 8 Michigan

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
13 Wisconsin vs. 4 Union
12 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 5 Ferris State

Northeast Regional (Worcester):
15 North Dakota vs. 2 Boston College
10 St. Cloud State vs. 7 Massachusetts-Lowell

East Regional (Bridgeport):
14 New Hampshire vs. 3 Quinnipiac
11 Providence vs. 6 Cornell
Conference breakdowns

Hockey East — 5
ECAC Hockey — 3
Big Ten — 3
NCHC — 3
Atlantic Hockey — 1
WCHA — 1
On the move

In: New Hampshire, North Dakota

Out: Clarkson, Notre Dame
Attendance woes?

Some uneasiness in Cincinnati.

Read more: [www.uscho.com]

I like it, I like it.

Jim Hyla
Some uneasiness in Cincinnati.

Wait a second... When did they decide to let Cincinnati host a regional? Of course, there's uneasiness there - they'renot sure if they know how to keep the rink frozen...

KeithK

Jim Hyla
Some uneasiness in Cincinnati.

Wait a second... When did they decide to let Cincinnati host a regional? Of course, there's uneasiness there - they'renot sure if they know how to keep the rink frozen...

We who skate on slushy ponds ought not throw ice cubes....

Jayson Moy
A good bracket

Yes, that. Season end now.

Robb

KeithK

Jim Hyla
Some uneasiness in Cincinnati.

Wait a second... When did they decide to let Cincinnati host a regional? Of course, there's uneasiness there - they'renot sure if they know how to keep the rink frozen...

We who skate on slushy ponds ought not throw ice cubes....

Rita

Robb

KeithK

Jim Hyla
Some uneasiness in Cincinnati.

Wait a second... When did they decide to let Cincinnati host a regional? Of course, there's uneasiness there - they'renot sure if they know how to keep the rink frozen...

We who skate on slushy ponds ought not throw ice cubes....

Ah, good point. But seriously, I just today noticed that there was a Cinci regional and it brought back memories.

With Minnesota's loss, we now have the second-longest active unbeaten streak in the country:

Current Unbeaten Streak:          W- L- T      Games
    Boston College               12- 0- 1         13
    Cornell                       5- 0- 4          9
    Robert Morris                 6- 0- 1          7
    Minnesota Duluth              3- 0- 2          5
    Michigan                      3- 0- 1          4
    UMass Lowell                  3- 0- 0          3
    Ohio State                    3- 0- 0          3
    Alaska                        2- 0- 0          2
    Michigan Tech                 2- 0- 0          2
    New Hampshire                 2- 0- 0          2
    Holy Cross                    1- 0- 1          2
    Mercyhurst                    1- 0- 1          2
    Niagara                       1- 0- 1          2
    Wisconsin                     1- 0- 1          2

Wisconsin's win moved them up to 11 in Pairwise and in a perfect bracket they would get us in the first round. And BC is the top seed now.

Trotsky
With Minnesota's loss, we now have the second-longest active unbeaten streak in the country:

Woof woof. You should know better Greg.

KenP

Trotsky
With Minnesota's loss, we now have the second-longest active unbeaten streak in the country:

Woof woof. You should know better Greg.

That's a historical fact - woofs (wooves?) have to do with overconfidence about future events. Now, if he's messing with your superstitions, that's another story...

Trotsky
With Minnesota's loss, we now have the second-longest active unbeaten streak in the country:

Current Unbeaten Streak:          W- L- T      Games
    Boston College               12- 0- 1         13
    Cornell                       5- 0- 4          9
    Robert Morris                 6- 0- 1          7
    Minnesota Duluth              3- 0- 2          5
    Michigan                      3- 0- 1          4
    UMass Lowell                  3- 0- 0          3
    Ohio State                    3- 0- 0          3
    Alaska                        2- 0- 0          2
    Michigan Tech                 2- 0- 0          2
    New Hampshire                 2- 0- 0          2
    Holy Cross                    1- 0- 1          2
    Mercyhurst                    1- 0- 1          2
    Niagara                       1- 0- 1          2
    Wisconsin                     1- 0- 1          2

I hate that BU loss so SO much.

Robb

KenP

Trotsky
With Minnesota's loss, we now have the second-longest active unbeaten streak in the country:

Woof woof. You should know better Greg.

That's a historical fact - woofs (wooves?) have to do with overconfidence about future events. Now, if he's messing with your superstitions, that's another story...

I meant no offense against Them. la ilaha illa-llahockey, harknessun rasulu-llah.

RichH
I hate that BU loss so SO much.

I'm not sure this is a consolation, but not losing the Colgate game that followed it was a gift. I'd call those games a push, and we stole the point against a primary threat for the 4-slot so I'm cool with it.

Trotsky

RichH
I hate that BU loss so SO much.

I'm not sure this is a consolation, but not losing the Colgate game that followed it was a gift. I'd call those games a push, and we stole the point against a primary threat for the 4-slot so I'm cool with it.

And Cornell probably stole at least one of the UNO games to start the season, which helps our PWR standing a good amount.

BUT STILL.

FYI - it's been a few weeks now that our Pairwise has correctly incorporated all of the new weightings/bonus for this year. And this is the only one that is written by your friend and mine, John Whelan - so have at it.

[www.collegehockeynews.com]

adamw
FYI - it's been a few weeks now that our Pairwise has correctly incorporated all of the new weightings/bonus for this year. And this is the only one that is written by your friend and mine, John Whelan - so have at it.

[www.collegehockeynews.com]

Probably best not to play with the customized Pairwise. Just switching the Dartmouth game from Tie to Win makes Cornell the four seed.

nyc94
Probably best not to play with the customized Pairwise. Just switching the Dartmouth game from Tie to Win makes Cornell the four seed.

That way lies madness. It is as likely that tweaking some obscure third party Lake State vs Western Michigan result throws us wildly up or down via the butterfly effect.

Just win out, baby.

Trotsky
That way lies madness. It is as likely that tweaking some obscure third party Lake State vs Western Michigan result throws us wildly up or down via the butterfly effect.

I must say, that is probably not the case anymore, due to the changes in the way the Pairwise is calculated.

Trotsky

nyc94
Probably best not to play with the customized Pairwise. Just switching the Dartmouth game from Tie to Win makes Cornell the four seed.

That way lies madness. It is as likely that tweaking some obscure third party Lake State vs Western Michigan result throws us wildly up or down via the butterfly effect.

Just win out, baby.

If that UMass game had been played, a tie would have us currently sitting in 10th. A loss drops us to 12th. Had we won, we're still in 6th. Bullet dodged.

Even a tie in that BU game puts us in 4th. Winning that BU game and losing the Colgate tie moves us up to 5th, to complete a prior conversation.

RichH

Trotsky

nyc94
Probably best not to play with the customized Pairwise. Just switching the Dartmouth game from Tie to Win makes Cornell the four seed.

That way lies madness. It is as likely that tweaking some obscure third party Lake State vs Western Michigan result throws us wildly up or down via the butterfly effect.

Just win out, baby.

If that UMass game had been played, a tie would have us currently sitting in 10th. A loss drops us to 12th. Had we won, we're still in 6th. Bullet dodged.

Even a tie in that BU game puts us in 4th. Winning that BU game and losing the Colgate tie moves us up to 5th, to complete a prior conversation.

Yes, madness.

KenP

Trotsky
With Minnesota's loss, we now have the second-longest active unbeaten streak in the country:

Woof woof. You should know better Greg.

Or we could just believe that most winning streaks are not only a combination of skill but also lucky bounces going our way. Going forward the most you can expect out of luck in any game is that it will be neutral, so that even if we play the same caliber hockey that we have been playing during the undefeated streak, we have probably been lucky, and therefore as our luck regresses to neutral we're more likely to to lose a game or two. And this often happens at about the time fans notice a stretch of outlying results.

css228
Or we could just believe that most winning streaks are not only a combination of skill but also lucky bounces going our way. Going forward the most you can expect out of luck in any game is that it will be neutral, so that even if we play the same caliber hockey that we have been playing during the undefeated streak, we have probably been lucky, and therefore as our luck regresses to neutral we're more likely to to lose a game or two. And this often happens at about the time fans notice a stretch of outlying results.

"Luck is the residue of design." -- Branch Rickey

Or for you young'uns:

"Luck can only get you so far." -- Hermione Granger, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince

Success is equal thirds ability, luck, and work. But we might as well pretend it's all the only one we can control, since then if we succeed we can be maximally smug.

Trotsky
Success is equal thirds ability, luck, and work. But we might as well pretend it's all the only one we can control, since then if we succeed we can be maximally smug.

There is no such thing as luck. There is only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe.

If you don't believe me, come play blackjack at my house over the next few days.

adamw
FYI - it's been a few weeks now that our Pairwise has correctly incorporated all of the new weightings/bonus for this year. And this is the only one that is written by your friend and mine, John Whelan - so have at it.

[www.collegehockeynews.com]

Adam, at some point will you state how you figured the bonus? For those who are wondering what I'm referring to, I'd ask them to read your article on the subject.

toddlose

Trotsky
Success is equal thirds ability, luck, and work. But we might as well pretend it's all the only one we can control, since then if we succeed we can be maximally smug.

There is no such thing as luck. There is only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe.

Thank you for proving my point.

Give My Regards

css228
Or we could just believe that most winning streaks are not only a combination of skill but also lucky bounces going our way. Going forward the most you can expect out of luck in any game is that it will be neutral, so that even if we play the same caliber hockey that we have been playing during the undefeated streak, we have probably been lucky, and therefore as our luck regresses to neutral we're more likely to to lose a game or two. And this often happens at about the time fans notice a stretch of outlying results.

"Luck is the residue of design." -- Branch Rickey

Or for you young'uns:

"Luck can only get you so far." -- Hermione Granger, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince

Think you're missing the point of regression. By dominating possession play, you give yourself the best chance to win because assuming neutral shooting luck the team with more shots wins. But while we know that in any single game, luck is biggest deciding factor in who wins. over the long run with neutral luck, the best team should win most of the time. A 9 game streak is not the long run.

Welp, thus far that shitshow has only cost us a slip to 8.

Trotsky
Welp, thus far that shitshow has only cost us a slip to 8.

Helped by a zero-point weekend coming from only one game. Does anybody know if we can pick up the NSA feed from the men's locker room at Lynah? That would be must-see TV.

This week's edition.

This week’s brackets

West Regional (St. Paul):
13 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 2 Minnesota
12 Vermont vs. 7 Wisconsin

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
14 Colgate vs. 4 Ferris State
10 Michigan vs. 8 St. Cloud State

Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Boston College
9 Cornell vs. 6 Massachusetts-Lowell

East Regional (Bridgeport):
15 Providence vs. 3 Union
11 Northeastern vs. 5 Quinnipiac
Conference breakdowns

Hockey East — 5
ECAC Hockey — 4
Big Ten — 3
NCHC — 2
Atlantic Hockey — 1
WCHA — 1
On the move

In: Vermont, Colgate

Out: New Hampshire, North Dakota

Read more: [www.uscho.com]

Jim Hyla
This week's edition.

This week’s brackets

West Regional (St. Paul):
13 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 2 Minnesota
12 Vermont vs. 7 Wisconsin

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
14 Colgate vs. 4 Ferris State
10 Michigan vs. 8 St. Cloud State

Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Boston College
9 Cornell vs. 6 Massachusetts-Lowell

East Regional (Bridgeport):
15 Providence vs. 3 Union
11 Northeastern vs. 5 Quinnipiac
Conference breakdowns

Hockey East — 5
ECAC Hockey — 4
Big Ten — 3
NCHC — 2
Atlantic Hockey — 1
WCHA — 1
On the move

In: Vermont, Colgate

Out: New Hampshire, North Dakota

Read more: [www.uscho.com]

I know there's all the mixing for various reasons, but weird to see the lowest 1 seed have the (presumably) easiest bracket.

You'll like this week.

This week’s brackets

West Regional (St. Paul):
14 Cornell vs. 2 Minnesota
9 Northeastern vs. 7 Wisconsin

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
15 Notre Dame vs. 4 St. Cloud State
12 North Dakota vs. 8 Ferris State

Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Boston College
10 Michigan vs. 8 Massachusetts-Lowell

East Regional (Bridgeport):
13 Vermont vs. 3 Union
11 Maine vs. 6 Quinnipiac
Conference breakdowns

Hockey East — 6
ECAC Hockey — 3
Big Ten — 3
NCHC — 2
Atlantic Hockey — 1
WCHA — 1
On the move

In: North Dakota, Notre Dame, Maine

Out: Minnesota-Duluth, Colgate, Providence

Read more: [www.uscho.com]

The only good thing, not for us, is that it gives the ECAC a relatively easy path for a FF team.

Minnesota was inevitable.

While we wait for Jason, I gave this week a shot:

This week’s brackets

West Regional (St. Paul):
15 Notre Dame vs. 2 Minnesota
10 North Dakota vs. 6 Wisconsin

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
13 Colgate vs. 4 Ferris State
12 Vermont vs. 5 St. Cloud

Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 AHA vs. 1 Boston College
11 Cornell vs. 8 Massachusetts-Lowell

East Regional (Bridgeport):
14 Michigan vs. 3 Union
9 Northeastern vs. 7 Quinnipiac

Reasoning:

The regional distribution of 1-seeds is obvious.

The natural pattern of the 2-seeds (1/8, 2/7...) has a regional attendance problem which is solved by swapping 6 Wisconsin and 7 Quinnipiac.

The natural pattern of the 3-seeds (8/9, 7/10...) is illegal since 9 Northeastern is not allowed to face Lowell in the Northeast. Surveying the entire 3-seed pool for the best fit, I keep the only western team (10 North Dakota) in the West. This leaves one of the 2 HE teams to be screwed to the Midwest (Cornell can't be since they have to take the Northeast slot), so I screw the worst seed (12 Vermont).

The natural pattern of the 4-seeds (1/16, 2/15..) is legal.

Trotsky
While we wait for Jason, I gave this week a shot:

This week’s brackets

West Regional (St. Paul):
15 Notre Dame vs. 2 Minnesota
10 North Dakota vs. 6 Wisconsin

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
13 Colgate vs. 4 Ferris State
12 Vermont vs. 5 St. Cloud

Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 AHA vs. 1 Boston College
11 Cornell vs. 8 Massachusetts-Lowell

East Regional (Bridgeport):
14 Michigan vs. 3 Union
9 Northeastern vs. 7 Quinnipiac

Reasoning:

The regional distribution of 1-seeds is obvious.

The natural pattern of the 2-seeds (1/8, 2/7...) has a regional attendance problem which is solved by swapping 6 Wisconsin and 7 Quinnipiac.

The natural pattern of the 3-seeds (8/9, 7/10...) is illegal since 9 Northeastern is not allowed to face Lowell in the Northeast. Surveying the entire 3-seed pool for the best fit, I keep the only western team (10 North Dakota) in the West. This leaves one of the 2 HE teams to be screwed to the Midwest (Cornell can't be since they have to take the Northeast slot), so I screw the worst seed (12 Vermont).

The natural pattern of the 4-seeds (1/16, 2/15..) is legal.

I came up with about the same thing. I left Wisconsin and Quiny where they were but moved us to Worcester to fix the Hockey East matchup problem.

Here we are:

Definately an eastern flavor and it's nice to see someone else have to make the Minny trip.

This week’s brackets

West Regional (St. Paul):
13 Colgate vs. 2 Minnesota
10 North Dakota vs. 6 Wisconsin

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
14 Michigan vs. 4 Ferris State
12 Vermont vs. 5 St. Cloud State

Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Boston College
11 Cornell vs. 8 Massachusetts-Lowell

East Regional (Bridgeport):
15 Notre Dame vs. 3 Union
9 Northeastern vs. 7 Quinnipiac
Conference breakdowns

Hockey East — 5
ECAC Hockey — 4
Big Ten — 3
NCHC — 2
Atlantic Hockey — 1
WCHA — 1
On the move

In: Colgate

Out: Maine
Attendance woes?

No issues for me.

Read more: [www.uscho.com]

Humble in victory. Skilled in building a spreadsheet.

Jason (Hockey's Mr. 538) Moy
For the past three years, I am the only prognosticator to have correctly predicted the exact brackets for the NCAA tournament, meaning that I have predicted how the committee thought when putting together the brackets.

Or his cousin works for NSA

Jim Hyla
No issues for me.

Oh, good, a road game in the first round too. That's a new one.

ugarte

Jim Hyla
No issues for me.

Oh, good, a road game in the first round too. That's a new one.

Please explain, I don't know what you mean.

Jim Hyla

ugarte

Jim Hyla
No issues for me.

Oh, good, a road game in the first round too. That's a new one.

Please explain, I don't know what you mean.

Usually we get stuck playing Minnesota in Minneapolis or Wisconsin in Green Bay, but it isn't until the second round. This projects us in Worcester, where we've got Lowell in the first round and if we get past them, BC.

ugarte

Jim Hyla

ugarte

Jim Hyla
No issues for me.

Oh, good, a road game in the first round too. That's a new one.

Please explain, I don't know what you mean.

Usually we get stuck playing Minnesota in Minneapolis or Wisconsin in Green Bay, but it isn't until the second round. This projects us in Worcester, where we've got Lowell in the first round and if we get past them, BC.

Based on our string of 2 wins on the road, we're peaking. The glass is half full and there's a pony nearby. With Dustin Mowrey up.

But seriously, if playoff atmosphere is worth seeding and regional points, then Cornell stays East unless there's a horrible conflict out west that can't be resolved without putting Cornell on a plane.

ugarte

Jim Hyla

ugarte

Jim Hyla
No issues for me.

Oh, good, a road game in the first round too. That's a new one.

Please explain, I don't know what you mean.

Usually we get stuck playing Minnesota in Minneapolis or Wisconsin in Green Bay, but it isn't until the second round. This projects us in Worcester, where we've got Lowell in the first round and if we get past them, BC.

You got me with the "No issues for me." quote. Although I didn't make it clear, that's Jason Moy's quote, not mine. That's why it's before the USCHO link. I don't look at the Worcester pick the same as out west, as our fan base can travel there, if they want to. Sure it's easier for the New England teams, but if we went to Bridgeport, it's marginally easier for Q. The only non-home team road trip is Cincy, and while that's better than St. Paul, I'd be happy with either eastern site.

Jim Hyla
Adam, at some point will you state how you figured the bonus? For those who are wondering what I'm referring to, I'd ask them to read your article on the subject.

Our new Bracket ABCs article is here:
[www.collegehockeynews.com]

Jim - I didn't think the bonus wasn't publicly stated. The committee itself released how it was done, in English - and we reference it in our Primer. [www.collegehockeynews.com] ... What are you looking to know?

adamw

Jim Hyla
Adam, at some point will you state how you figured the bonus? For those who are wondering what I'm referring to, I'd ask them to read your article on the subject.

Our new Bracket ABCs article is here:
[www.collegehockeynews.com]
Jim - I didn't think the bonus wasn't publicly stated. The committee itself released how it was done, in English - and we reference it in our Primer. [www.collegehockeynews.com] ... What are you looking to know?

With all respect to all the hockey writers/fanatics who publish their bracket predictions, Adam's is easier to read, the boilerplate is at the end, and there's more about each team, which is what fans of those teams want. And it makes the point that the If The Season Ended Today pairings are pointless because it changes so much, but what the heck we'll publish it anyway because that's what being a fan is about.

Fans are curious to see how much emphasis the seeding committee places on good of the game, competitive atmosphere, or whatever euphemism there is for reducing empty seats in the regionals by placing teams closer to their fans. For many teams in the East / Northeaast, what matters is not getting sent to Cincinnati or St Paul (9 hours and 16 hours from Ithaca). Bridgeport and Worcester, the two eastern sites, are 115 miles apart. Cincinnati and St Paul, the two midwest/west sites, are 700 miles apart.

billhoward
With all respect to all the hockey writers/fanatics who publish their bracket predictions, Adam's is easier to read, the boilerplate is at the end, and there's more about each team, which is what fans of those teams want. And it makes the point that the If The Season Ended Today pairings are pointless because it changes so much, but what the heck we'll publish it anyway because that's what being a fan is about.

Thanks Bill. I've been making that point for about 15 years - that it's pointless - and I've been doing those Bracket articles for CHN since we started in 2006 ... but that is the first time I gave in a little and showed a "bracket as it currently stands" just as a launching point for discussion of it. Which is often what I do in the text of the article even if not showing an actual bracket. I cannot for the life of me see the allure of dissecting a bracket as of today, since it won't be that way. But to each their own.

adamw
I cannot for the life of me see the allure of dissecting a bracket as of today, since it won't be that way. But to each their own.

At the end of long day it can be cathartic to rage at a theoretical committee for sending Cornell out to Minnesota again...

Additionally, Adam wrote a good state-of-the-team article on Cornell.

[www.collegehockeynews.com]

My only pedantic comment being that the Neiley cheap-shot of Bardreau happened a few seconds after the final horn, not in the handshake line (which didn't happen).

RichH
My only pedantic comment being that the Neiley cheap-shot of Bardreau happened a few seconds after the final horn, not in the handshake line (which didn't happen).

My less pedantic comment is that the team doesn't need to win two games for home ice; we need two points, however attained, given our tiebreak win over Yale and tiebreak tie with Q. (I.e., we win the three-way quite soundly.)

Sorry about the handshake line thing - I mis-remembered and fixed it.

The other comment about "needing two wins" wasn't meant to be that literal.

"In order to lock up a home-ice spot for the ECAC tournament, the Big Red need to win two games."

"In order to," "need"--if you're not being literal, don't write so declaratively!

PS If you change "two games" to "one game," it won't even screw up the flow of the paragraph. Indeed, it makes what you say afterward even more relevant, because no one in a Cornell sweater should ever take games against Dartmouth (a perennial bugaboo, particularly of the early 00s teams) or Harvard anything other than seriously.

adamw

Jim Hyla
Adam, at some point will you state how you figured the bonus? For those who are wondering what I'm referring to, I'd ask them to read your article on the subject.

Our new Bracket ABCs article is here:
[www.collegehockeynews.com]

Jim - I didn't think the bonus wasn't publicly stated. The committee itself released how it was done, in English - and we reference it in our Primer. [www.collegehockeynews.com] ... What are you looking to know?

Adam, I've been referring to this:

It gets pretty technical, but essentially, you can apply the weighting against the team's winning percentage only, or against the entire RPI (which consists of winning percentage, opponent's winning percentage, and opponent's opponents winning percentage).

I've looked through the articles again, and I don't see how you've chosen to do it. Considering all the description, I could have missed it, but?

adamw

billhoward
With all respect to all the hockey writers/fanatics who publish their bracket predictions, Adam's is easier to read, the boilerplate is at the end, and there's more about each team, which is what fans of those teams want. And it makes the point that the If The Season Ended Today pairings are pointless because it changes so much, but what the heck we'll publish it anyway because that's what being a fan is about.

Thanks Bill. I've been making that point for about 15 years - that it's pointless - and I've been doing those Bracket articles for CHN since we started in 2006 ... but that is the first time I gave in a little and showed a "bracket as it currently stands" just as a launching point for discussion of it. Which is often what I do in the text of the article even if not showing an actual bracket. I cannot for the life of me see the allure of dissecting a bracket as of today, since it won't be that way. But to each their own.

Lot's of things we do every day are pointless. Hell, my posting is pointless to most, and maybe even to me. But we do it because it's fun. I certainly don't think it means anything to post the "Bracketology" every week, but it's kind of fun to see who might get "screwed" by having to play Minny in St. Paul. That's it, I think.

Jim Hyla
Adam, I've been referring to this:

It gets pretty technical, but essentially, you can apply the weighting against the team's winning percentage only, or against the entire RPI (which consists of winning percentage, opponent's winning percentage, and opponent's opponents winning percentage).

I've looked through the articles again, and I don't see how you've chosen to do it. Considering all the description, I could have missed it, but?

That's home/road weighting - not Quality Win Bonus. Two different things. When you said "bonus," I thought you were referring to QWB, which is spelled out pretty definitively.

The home/road weighting is being applied to all three components of the RPI.

adamw

Jim Hyla
Adam, I've been referring to this:

It gets pretty technical, but essentially, you can apply the weighting against the team's winning percentage only, or against the entire RPI (which consists of winning percentage, opponent's winning percentage, and opponent's opponents winning percentage).

I've looked through the articles again, and I don't see how you've chosen to do it. Considering all the description, I could have missed it, but?

That's home/road weighting - not Quality Win Bonus. Two different things. When you said "bonus," I thought you were referring to QWB, which is spelled out pretty definitively.

The home/road weighting is being applied to all three components of the RPI.

Thanks, sorry about the confusion.

Looks like losing to Dartmouth destroyed our RPI. Down to 14 in Pairwise.

ugarte
Looks like losing to Dartmouth destroyed our RPI. Down to 14 in Pairwise.

CHN has us at 12.

Trotsky

ugarte
Looks like losing to Dartmouth destroyed our RPI. Down to 14 in Pairwise.

CHN has us at 12.

maybe late returns moved us back up
EDIT: yep, USCHO has us at 12 also

ugarte

Trotsky

ugarte
Looks like losing to Dartmouth destroyed our RPI. Down to 14 in Pairwise.

CHN has us at 12.

maybe late returns moved us back up
EDIT: yep, USCHO has us at 12 also

We do not want to fall down to the four-band. That's a sure trip out west assuming BC stays #1.

Jeff Hopkins '82

ugarte

Trotsky

ugarte
Looks like losing to Dartmouth destroyed our RPI. Down to 14 in Pairwise.

CHN has us at 12.

maybe late returns moved us back up
EDIT: yep, USCHO has us at 12 also

We do not want to fall down to the four-band. That's a sure trip out west assuming BC stays #1.

This sort of thing is why I pay attention to the Pairwise before the end of the season.

Edit: BC lost to Notre Dame and Minnesota takes over the top spot for now. They would get the Atlantic Hockey autobid.

Currently 12. First round vs. St. Cloud in Cincinnati before changes for attendance.

nyc94
Currently 12. First round vs. St. Cloud in Cincinnati before changes for attendance.

And I don't see any attendance changes moving us east. If they swapped us with Notre Dame (Bridgeport) it would put us against Quinny. The only attendance move is Michigan to Cincinnati and Vermont to Bridgeport.

Good news: It'll change 25 times between now and Selection Sunday.

Jeff Hopkins '82

nyc94
Currently 12. First round vs. St. Cloud in Cincinnati before changes for attendance.

And I don't see any attendance changes moving us east. If they swapped us with Notre Dame (Bridgeport) it would put us against Quinny. The only attendance move is Michigan to Cincinnati and Vermont to Bridgeport.

Good news: It'll change 25 times between now and Selection Sunday.

so when it comes to Minneapolis, you're saying there's still a chance???

Robb

Jeff Hopkins '82

nyc94
Currently 12. First round vs. St. Cloud in Cincinnati before changes for attendance.

And I don't see any attendance changes moving us east. If they swapped us with Notre Dame (Bridgeport) it would put us against Quinny. The only attendance move is Michigan to Cincinnati and Vermont to Bridgeport.

Good news: It'll change 25 times between now and Selection Sunday.

so when it comes to Minneapolis, you're saying there's still a chance???

Sadly, yes.

Edit: And it's changed already! Michigan's Sunday afternoon win over tOSU moves them to 12th and shoves everyone else down a slot. We're now 13 and will have to move to Worcester to avoid Northeastern or Vermont playing BC.

CHN Pairwise

Rank 	Team 	       PCWs 	RPI 	Rk 	preRPI 	QWB-† 	W-L-T 	Win % 	Wgtd Win % - ‡
1 	Minnesota 	58 	.6012 	2 	.5922 	.0090 	23-4-5 	.7969 	.7872
2 	Boston College 	57 	.6012 	1 	.5932 	.0080 	25-5-4 	.7941 	.8047
3 	Union 	        55 	.5818 	3 	.5772 	.0046 	24-6-4 	.7647 	.7688
4 	St. Cloud State	55 	.5602 	4 	.5546 	.0055 	19-8-5 	.6719 	.6606
5 	Wisconsin 	54 	.5586 	5 	.5538 	.0048 	19-9-2 	.6667 	.6538
6 	Ferris State 	53 	.5584 	6 	.5576 	.0008 	23-9-3 	.7000 	.7246
7 	Quinnipiac 	52 	.5542 	8 	.5496 	.0046 	22-8-6 	.6944 	.6903
8 	Mass.-Lowell 	51 	.5546 	7 	.5506 	.0040 	21-9-4 	.6765 	.6766
9 	North Dakota 	50 	.5516 	9 	.5487 	.0030 	19-10-3	.6406 	.6369
10 	Notre Dame 	49 	.5458 	10 	.5399 	.0059 	20-12-2	.6176 	.5975
11 	Providence 	47 	.5456 	11 	.5417 	.0039 	19-9-6 	.6471 	.6404
12 	Michigan 	46 	.5430 	12 	.5393 	.0037 	16-10-4	.6000 	.6069
13 	Cornell 	45 	.5407 	13 	.5388 	.0019 	15-8-5 	.6250 	.6259
14 	Vermont 	45 	.5392 	14 	.5366 	.0026 	18-12-3	.5909 	.5833
15 	Northeastern 	44 	.5387 	15 	.5324 	.0063 	18-12-4	.5882 	.5901
16 	Colgate 	43 	.5351 	17 	.5277 	.0074 	17-12-5	.5735 	.5632

We need to figure in one or maybe two losses en route to the NCAAs: two wins or two out of three against Clarkson (most likely) and then an uphill game against Union in the ECAC semis Friday. Magic could happen and we run the table in the ECACs; anything seems possible after the Harvard comeback.

Time is getting closer.

This week’s brackets

West Regional (St. Paul):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Minnesota
9 North Dakota vs. 5 Wisconsin

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
13 Cornell vs. 4 St. Cloud State
12 Michigan vs. 8 Massachusetts-Lowell

Northeast Regional (Worcester):
15 Minnesota State vs. 2 Boston College
10 Notre Dame vs. 6 Ferris State

East Regional (Bridgeport):
14 Vermont vs. 3 Union
11 Providence vs. 7 Quinnipiac
Conference breakdowns

Hockey East — 5
ECAC Hockey — 3
Big Ten — 3
NCHC — 2
WCHA — 2
Atlantic Hockey — 1
On the move

In: Providence, Minnesota State

Out: Northeastern, Colgate
Attendance woes?

I am worried a bit about Cincinnati and Worcester.

Read more: [www.uscho.com]

But if Ferris beats Mankato in the WCHA tournament, then Northeastern is in and we go to Worcester.

Jim Hyla
Time is getting closer.

Wrong.

ugarte

Jim Hyla
Time is getting closer.

Wrong.

Oh, I dunno. Space is getting older.

Trotsky

ugarte

Jim Hyla
Time is getting closer.

Wrong.

Oh, I dunno. Space is getting older.

"And Leon's getting larger!"