2013 ECAC Playoff Permutations

Yes, it's ECAC Perm time again! First, here's the short version:

Possible ECAC tournament seedings (the number in parentheses is the best seed the team can get with no help):

Quinnipiac     1      (1)
Rensselaer     2-6    (2)
St. Lawrence   2-7    (2)
Yale           2-8    (4)
Dartmouth      2-9    (5)
Union          2-10   (5)
Clarkson       3-11   (6)
Brown          4-11   (8)
Cornell        4-11   (9)
Princeton      5-11   (9)
Colgate        7-12   (11)
Harvard        11-12  (12)

And now, the exceedingly L O N G version:

Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where each team in the ECAC could finish.  As always, I'm greatly indebted to
John Whelan's excellent playoff possibilities script at [www.elynah.com] , as well as to all those who labored to make the script available this year!

For each ECAC team, I've listed the following:

THIS WEEKEND:  The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN:  The highest the team could finish with no help from the
     competition.  Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE:  The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE:  The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
     This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
     standings win.
TIEBREAKERS:  How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
     some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
     standings.  Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
     lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
     more than just those two teams tied.  For instance, Dartmouth wins the
     head-to-head tiebreaker against Union with a 1-0-1 record; however, in a
     four-way tie involving those two, Rensselaer, and Yale, Dartmouth would
     actually be seeded lower than Union.  (This kind of thing seems to be even
     more possible than usual this year)


For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:

1.   Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
     tournaments, do not count).
2.   League wins.
3.   Record against the top four teams in the conference.
4.   Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
5.   Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
6.   Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
7.   Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.

Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are
used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the
“pack”.  Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the remaining
ties.  For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way tie, once
one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure goes back to
the first step with the three remaining tied teams.


Without further ado, here’s how things shape up:

Rensselaer:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Clarkson, St. Lawrence.
     ON THEIR OWN:  The Engineers take second place with three points on the
     weekend.
     BEST CASE:  Second.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to sixth if they lose twice, Yale and Union get at
     least three points, and Dartmouth gets at least two.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Yale; loses to Union; could win or lose against St.
     Lawrence, Dartmouth, and Clarkson.

St. Lawrence:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Union, at Rensselaer.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches second with two wins.
     BEST CASE:  Second.
     WORST CASE:  Would finish seventh with two losses if Yale and Dartmouth
     get at least one point each, and Clarkson beats Rensselaer and does not
     lose to Union.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Brown; loses to Yale and Clarkson; could win or lose
     against Rensselaer, Dartmouth, and Union.

Yale:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Colgate, Cornell.
     ON THEIR OWN:  A sweep wraps up fourth place.
     BEST CASE:  Climbs to second with two wins if Rensselaer gets no more than
     one point and St. Lawrence does not sweep.
     WORST CASE:  Drops to eighth with two losses if neither Dartmouth nor
     Union loses twice, Clarkson gets at least three points, and Brown sweeps.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats St. Lawrence and Princeton; loses to Rensselaer; could
     win or lose against Dartmouth, Union, Clarkson, Brown, and Cornell.

Dartmouth:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Princeton, Quinnipiac.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Two wins will guarantee fifth place.
     BEST CASE:  Would take second with two wins if Yale and St. Lawrence do
     not sweep and Rensselaer gets no more than one point.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes ninth if they get swept, Union and Clarkson get at
     least two points each, and either Cornell wins twice or Brown gets at
     least three points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Cornell and Princeton; could win or lose against
     Rensselaer, St. Lawrence, Yale, Union, Clarkson, and Brown

Union:
     THIS WEEKEND:  St. Lawrence, Clarkson.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches fifth with a pair of wins.
     BEST CASE:  Rises to second if they sweep, Dartmouth and Yale each get no
     more than two points, St. Lawrence and Rensselaer tie, and Rensselaer
     loses to Clarkson.
     WORST CASE:  Would finish tenth if they lose twice, Princeton gets at
     least three points, and Brown and Cornell tie and each wins their other
     game.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Rensselaer; loses to Cornell; could win or lose
     against St. Lawrence, Yale, Dartmouth, Clarkson, Brown, and Princeton.

Clarkson:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Rensselaer, at Union.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Would wrap up sixth place with a sweep.
     BEST CASE:  Takes third with two wins if Dartmouth and Yale get no more
     than one point each, and St. Lawrence loses to Rensselaer and does not
     beat Union.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to eleventh if they lose twice, Colgate sweeps,
     Princeton gets at least three points, Cornell beats Yale, and Brown does
     not lose to Cornell.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats St. Lawrence; could win or lose against Rensselaer,
     Yale, Dartmouth, Union, Brown, Cornell, Princeton, and Colgate.

Brown:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Cornell, Colgate.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Two wins will clinch eighth.
     BEST CASE:  Climbs to fourth with a sweep if Dartmouth and Yale both lose
     twice, Union gets no more than one point, and Clarkson does not sweep.
     WORST CASE:  Drops to eleventh with two losses if Princeton gets at least
     two points and Colgate does not lose to Yale.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to St. Lawrence and Colgate; could win or lose against
     Yale, Dartmouth, Union, Clarkson, Cornell, and Princeton.

Princeton:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Dartmouth, at Harvard.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Gets ninth place with a sweep.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes fifth if they win twice, Dartmouth also loses to
     Quinnipiac, Yale gets at least one point, Brown gets no more than two
     points, and Clarkson and Union tie and each loses their other game.
     WORST CASE:  Would wind up in eleventh if they get swept, Cornell does not
     lose twice, and Colgate gets at least three points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Dartmouth and Cornell; loses to Yale; could win or
     lose against Union, Clarkson, Brown, and Colgate.

Cornell:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Brown, at Yale.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches ninth by beating Brown and not losing to Yale.
     BEST CASE:  Would take fourth with a sweep if Dartmouth loses twice, Yale
     also loses to Colgate, Princeton does not beat Harvard, Union does not
     beat Clarkson, and Clarkson and Union both lose their other game.
     WORST CASE:  Slides to eleventh if they lose twice and Colgate gets at
     least three points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Union and Dartmouth; loses to Princeton; could win or
     lose against Yale, Clarkson, Brown, and Colgate.

Colgate:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Yale, at Brown.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Two points will lock up eleventh place.
     BEST CASE:  Rises to seventh with a sweep if Clarkson loses twice,
     Princeton gets no more than one point, Brown and Cornell tie, and Cornell
     does not beat Yale.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes twelfth if they lose twice and Harvard sweeps.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Brown; could win or lose against Clarkson, Princeton,
     Cornell, and Harvard.

Harvard:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Quinnipiac, Princeton.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Can do no better than twelfth without help.
     BEST CASE:  Gets eleventh with a sweep if Colgate gets no more than one
     point.
     WORST CASE:  Twelfth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Could win or lose against Colgate.

This was extremely clear and easy to sort through. I appreciate the time you spent on it.

Almost everyone has so much to play for...except, you know...that fact that everyone makes the tournament. It would definitely be a lot more exciting if not everyone made it.

BearLover
Almost everyone has so much to play for...except, you know...that fact that everyone makes the tournament. It would definitely be a lot more exciting if not everyone made it.

... and Harvard not being able to star in an Ivy League/ECAC remake of "Hoosiers"? It needs a different title. "Hosers" sounds dated. "Loosiers"? Has a movie ever had "Suck" in the title?

Vampires Suck 2010
Love Actually...Sucks 2011
Suck 2009
Suck 2007
Mean People Suck 2001


You're welcome

I think I saw the one from 2009 - it was subtitled "A History of Harvard Hockey."

BearLover
Almost everyone has so much to play for...except, you know...Quinnipiac.

FYP

BMac

BearLover
Almost everyone has so much to play for...except, you know...Quinnipiac.

FYP

Maybe not ECAC-wise, but Quinnipiac shouldn't start farting around if they want to hold on to that #1 PWR.

Give My Regards

BMac

BearLover
Almost everyone has so much to play for...except, you know...Quinnipiac.

FYP

Maybe not ECAC-wise, but Quinnipiac shouldn't start farting around if they want to hold on to that #1 PWR.

Interesting that right now the top spot in the PWR doesn't make any difference for Quinnipiac with respect to first round opponent. Assuming ties are still broken by RPI, the #4 seeds would be Dartmouth, Notre Dame, Yale and RPI. If Niagara (currently #8) wins the Atlantic Hockey autobid the only first round opponent Quinnipiac can face is Notre Dame.

edit: In this week's Bracketology blog on USCHO they give the Hockey East auto bid to Providence as they win the tiebreak procedure in the current 4-way tie for first. Providence is 25th in PWR, would get the 16 seed and would be matched with Quinnipiac should they be #1.

Here's as good a place as any. Iles and Miller with ECAC Weekly Awards. Here's Cornell's release.

From USCHO ECAC column:

• Cornell’s four-game unbeaten streak is the second-longest in the nation, trailing only Providence.

Read more: [www.uscho.com]

See, I knew we were in with the best.

Jim Hyla
From USCHO ECAC column:

• Cornell’s four-game unbeaten streak is the second-longest in the nation, trailing only Providence.

Read more: [www.uscho.com]

See, I knew we were in with the best.

The Friars are 3-0-4 with home-and-home games against BC pending. The Unbeaten Streak Belt may change hands.

Princeton and Cornell can both clinch 9th place on their own if they sweep?

That seems, um, counterintuitive.

heykb
Princeton and Cornell can both clinch 9th place on their own if they sweep?

That seems, um, counterintuitive.

Not really. It means it's the lowest they can finish. They can always finish higher, and indeed one of them would.

Trotsky

heykb
Princeton and Cornell can both clinch 9th place on their own if they sweep?

That seems, um, counterintuitive.

Not really. It means it's the lowest they can finish. They can always finish higher, and indeed one of them would.

More specifically, if Princeton sweeps, it doesn't affect anyone all that near them in the standings, while if Cornell sweeps, it would mean that they defeated Brown, and that would knock Brown behind Cornell (and Princeton, if they also swept).

Here are the newspaper articles:

Cornell Daily Sun

Ithaca Journal

So, tonight's rooting interest.

Case 1: aiming for home ice, 1R (doable)

Cornell (17) at Brown (18)
Princeton (17) at Dartmouth (21)
Quinnipiac (35) at Harvard (12) (we don't care, call it a tie)
Clarkson (19) at RPI (23)
St. Lawrence (22) at Union (20)
Colgate (15) at Yale (21)

Standings if all results held:

01 36 Qpc
02 25 RPI
03 24 SLU
04 23 Drt
.. 23 Yal
06 20 Uni
07 19 Clk
.. 19 Cor
09 18 Brn
10 17 Prn
11 15 Col
12 13 Hvd

Case 2: aiming for home ice, QF (incredible long shot)

Cornell (17) at Brown (18)
Princeton (17) at Dartmouth (21)
Quinnipiac (35) at Harvard (12) (we don't care, call it a tie)
Clarkson (19) at RPI (23)
St. Lawrence (22) at Union (20)
Colgate (15) at Yale

Standings if all results held:

01 36 Qpc
02 25 RPI
03 24 SLU
04 21 Drt
.. 21 Yal
06 20 Uni
07 19 Clk
.. 19 Cor
.. 19 Prn
10 18 Brn
11 17 Col
12 13 Hvd

With the win tonight, Cornell now remarkably has as many wins (4) in their last 5 conference games as in their first 16.

Well, it's clear what the rooting interest of the Dartmouth announcers is. Boy... they're horrible. Still 2–2, heading to overtime, Dartmouth on the kill.

Looks like Yale beat Colgate with 3 seconds left in OT.

Final, 2–2. Not the best of results, not the worst of results.

Scersk '97
Final, 2–2. Not the best of results, not the worst of results.

Pretty darn close to optimal overall though:

Case 1: aiming for home ice, 1R (doable)

Cornell won (yay)
Princeton did not win (yay)
Clarkson lost (yay)
Colgate did not win (yay)

Right, considering that SLU tanked against Union, it wasn't going to break our way for the home run. Yet, it would have been nice to have a 6th-place target instead of a "defense" of 7th. And I would've preferred a Dartmouth win, of course.

If everything works out, I'm hoping for Princeton for a first-round opponent. After the last game, I think it's clear that we match up well vs. them, and it's very difficult to beat a team three times in a row. In my mind, I see the next game as ours, particularly at home.

Not to anger any woofing gods, but I would not mind seeing Brown either.

Last year we wanted Dartmouth in the first round, and they took us into 2OT in one game, and Harvard in the semis, who beat us bad. The team we kept saying we didn't want, Colgate, we ended up beating. If we want to keep going, we just gotta win, regardless of who we play.

Based on John's great script:

Ignoring ties

Cornell wins:
> All scenarios: 7th

Cornell loses:
> Clarkson L, Brown L, Princeton L: 7th
> Clarkson W, Brown L, Princeton L: 8th
> Clarkson L, Brown W, Princeton L: 8th
> Clarkson L, Brown L, Princeton W: 8th
> Clarkson W, Brown W, Princeton L: 9th
> Clarkson W, Brown L, Princeton W: 10th
> Clarkson L, Brown W, Princeton W: 9th
> Clarkson W, Brown W, Princeton W: 10th

Trotsky
Based on John's great script:

Ignoring ties

Cornell wins:
> All scenarios: 7th

Cornell loses:
> Clarkson L, Brown L, Princeton L: 7th
> Clarkson W, Brown L, Princeton L: 8th
> Clarkson L, Brown W, Princeton L: 8th
> Clarkson L, Brown L, Princeton W: 8th
> Clarkson W, Brown W, Princeton L: 9th
> Clarkson W, Brown L, Princeton W: 10th
> Clarkson L, Brown W, Princeton W: 9th
> Clarkson W, Brown W, Princeton W: 10th

So, barring ties, two of three need to lose for Cornell to get home ice if they take zero points at Yale.

At least we'll know the Brown result by the game time at Yale. If Brown wins, we need for losses for both PU and CK. If Brown loses, we still need one other loss for Cornell to clinch home ice.

The tiebreakers vs top 4 will depend (obviously) on who is top 4. The ECAC site has concise table showing H2H.

In the table below, read across for record of row vs col. An * is a meeting tonight.

          35 Qpc   25 RPI   23 Yal   22 Uni   22 SLU   22 Drt
19 Cor     0-2      1-1      0-1*     2-0      1-1      1-0-1
19 Clk     0-2      0-2      1-1      1-0*     1-0-1    1-1
18 Prn     0-2      1-0-1    0-2      0-1-1    0-1-1    1-0-1
18 Brn     0-0-2    0-1-1    1-1      0-1-1    0-1-1    0-2

Tonight's rooting interests:

Cor at Yal: Cornell. Duh, but in addition to our result, giving Yale even a point hurts us vs Clk and Brn.
Col at Brn: Colgate.
SLU at RPI: RPI helps us vs Clk and hurts vs Prn. SLU helps vs Prn and hurts vs Clk. vs Brn it's a wash.
Clk at Uni: Union. In addition to the primary result against Clk, Union helps us with all comparisons.
Qpc at Drt: Dartmouth. Dartmouth helps us vs Clk and Brn.
Prn at Hvd: Harvard.

We're now tied for 22 in PWR. With a strong showing by getting to AC, I think there is still a chance of an At-Large bid, maybe?

Jim Hyla
We're now tied for 22 in PWR. With a strong showing by getting to AC, I think there is still a chance of an At-Large bid, maybe?

I just did a quick sampling of the teams ahead of us and in most cases we lose comparisons by 1 point, losing RPI and Common Opponent and winning TUC. Keep winning and our RPI goes up and we could flip a few comparisons. I still think we need some help from the teams between us and the bubble.

nyc94

Jim Hyla
We're now tied for 22 in PWR. With a strong showing by getting to AC, I think there is still a chance of an At-Large bid, maybe?

I just did a quick sampling of the teams ahead of us and in most cases we lose comparisons by 1 point, losing RPI and Common Opponent and winning TUC. Keep winning and our RPI goes up and we could flip a few comparisons. I still think we need some help from the teams between us and the bubble.

And probably no major upsets in the other league playoffs, ours excepted of course.

It was also interesting to see how many other moves were made in PWR last night. Jason Moy had RPI missing the tournament on his analysis. After last night they would be in.

And all three teams at the top lost last night.

And it certainly helps if Colgate, Ferris State, and CC stay TUC.

marty
It was also interesting to see how many other moves were made in PWR last night. Jason Moy had RPI missing the tournament on his analysis. After last night they would be in.

Jayson Moy did a quick blog entry after last night's results. RPI is in at #13. [www.uscho.com]

In his mid-week blog RPI was out because they were #16 and he was giving the Hockey East autobid to Providence. At the time Providence was #25 in Pairwise and in a four-way tie for first in Hockey East. Providence lost to BC last night.

nyc94

marty
It was also interesting to see how many other moves were made in PWR last night. Jason Moy had RPI missing the tournament on his analysis. After last night they would be in.

Jayson Moy did a quick blog entry after last night's results. RPI is in at #13. [www.uscho.com]

In his mid-week blog RPI was out because they were #16 and he was giving the Hockey East autobid to Providence. At the time Providence was #25 in Pairwise and in a four-way tie for first in Hockey East. Providence lost to BC last night.

The autobid assumption for Providence was weak but emphasizes how much unknown there is for those teams on the bubble. Providence losing last night dropped them to 31.

Niagara is currently twelfth in the pairwise. If they lose their tournament but do otherwise well until the final it might be that two Atlantic Hockey teams would be in. Just think how much fun this will be next year with the Big Ten league in the mix.

Trotsky
The tiebreakers vs top 4 will depend (obviously) on who is top 4. The ECAC site has concise table showing H2H.

In the table below, read across for record of row vs col. An * is a meeting tonight.

          35 Qpc   25 RPI   23 Yal   22 Uni   22 SLU   22 Drt
19 Cor     0-2      1-1      0-1*     2-0      1-1      1-0-1
19 Clk     0-2      0-2      1-1      1-0*     1-0-1    1-1
18 Prn     0-2      1-0-1    0-2      0-1-1    0-1-1    1-0-1
18 Brn     0-0-2    0-1-1    1-1      0-1-1    0-1-1    0-2

Tonight's rooting interests:

Cor at Yal: Cornell. Duh, but in addition to our result, giving Yale even a point hurts us vs Clk and Brn.
Col at Brn: Colgate.
SLU at RPI: RPI helps us vs Clk and hurts vs Prn. SLU helps vs Prn and hurts vs Clk. vs Brn it's a wash.
Clk at Uni: Union. In addition to the primary result against Clk, Union helps us with all comparisons.
Qpc at Drt: Dartmouth. Dartmouth helps us vs Clk and Brn.
Prn at Hvd: Harvard.

Brown beat Colgate.